Archaea Energy Inc. Stock Research

LFG Stock Price

LFG RSI Chart

LFG Valuation

Market Cap

2.1B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

-69.92

Price/Sales (Trailing)

7.47

EV/EBITDA

33.22

Price/Free Cashflow

-12.14

LFG Price/Sales (Trailing)

LFG Profitability

Operating Margin

17.85%

EBT Margin

-7.42%

Return on Equity

-23.07%

Return on Assets

-1.28%

Free Cashflow Yield

-8.23%

LFG Fundamentals

LFG Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

281.9M

Revenue Y/Y

768.1%

Revenue Q/Q

43.57%

LFG Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

-30.1M

Earnings Y/Y

-242.93%

Earnings Q/Q

-174.29%

Price Action

Last 7 days

0.3%

Last 30 days

0.5%

Last 90 days

49.5%

Trailing 12 Months

42.4%

LFG Financial Health

Current Ratio

2.78

Debt/Equity

4.37

Debt/Cashflow

0.18

LFG Investor Care

Diluted EPS (TTM)

-0.6

Financials for Archaea Energy

Income Statement (Last 12 Months)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4	2021Q3
Revenue	47.3%	281,937,000	191,447,000	123,271,000	70,794,000	18,521,000
S&GA Expenses	23.8%	96,610,000	78,021,000	67,022,000	43,827,000	23,222,301
EBITDA	72.3%	54,359,000	31,541,000	-25,681,051	-10,099,000	-26,432,880
EBITDA Margin	13.6%	0.19	0.17	-0.19	-0.13	-1.27
Earnings Before Taxes	0.0%	-20,912,000	-20,911,000	-61,594,000	-30,921,000	-35,023,000
EBT Margin	34.1%	-0.07	-0.11	-0.47	-0.40	-1.55
Interest Expenses	80.7%	20,131,000	11,142,000	7,443,000	4,797,000	1,637,171
Net Income	-104.5%	-30,114,000	-14,727,000	-55,281,000	-24,608,000	-
Net Income Margin	-34.8%	-0.11	-0.08	-1.19	-1.50	-6.35
Free Cahsflow	0.7%	-173,371,000	-174,657,000	-175,852,000	-167,579,000	-154,174,445

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4	2021Q3
Assets	37.1%	2,347	1,713	1,465	1,451	1,387
Current Assets	35.5%	420	310	123	160	240
Cash Equivalents	40.4%	299	213	31.00	78.00	171
Inventory	72.7%	19.00	11.00	11.00	9.00	9.00
Net PPE	29.5%	596	460	394	351	282
Goodwill	165.9%	48.00	18.00	29.00	29.00	27.00
Liabilities	42.4%	1,242	873	662	620	647
Current Liabilities	21.3%	151	124	93.00	69.00	37.00
Long Term Debt	67.6%	570	340	343	338	-
LT Debt, Current	71.1%	22.00	13.00	11.00	9.00	-
LT Debt, Non Current	61.7%	888	549	328	331	329
Shareholder's Equity	-44.1%	131	233	-162	-439	-
Retained Earnings	-9.4%	-173	-158	-180	-162	-439
Additional Paid-In Capital	-22.4%	304	392	122	-	-
Shares Outstanding	0.6%	81.00	81.00	66.00	53.00	-
Minority Interest	Infinity%	271	-	0.00	-	-

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Thousands)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4	2021Q3
Cashflow From Operations	187.5%	103,755	36,090	-7,285	-28,112	-55,455
Share Based Compensation	8.4%	14,969	13,815	10,792	5,071	2,887
Cashflow From Investing	18.0%	-607,068	-740,046	-728,724	-694,551	-824,648
Cashflow From Financing	-27.9%	651,205	902,832	750,815	814,233	1,050,743
Buy Backs	-	107,690	-	-	-	-

Risks for LFG

What is the probability of a big loss on LFG?

46.2%

Probability that Archaea Energy stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

24.5%

Probability that Archaea Energy stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

Probability that Archaea Energy stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does LFG drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Archaea Energy was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for LFG

Cumulative Returns on LFG

Which funds bought or sold LFG recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	sold off	-100	-415,000	-	-%
2023-02-21	MACQUARIE GROUP LTD	sold off	-100	-94,925,000	-	-%
2023-02-17	TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP	sold off	-100	-257,000	-	-%
2023-02-15	JANE STREET GROUP, LLC	sold off	-100	-313,000	-	-%
2023-02-15	LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC	sold off	-100	-2,000	-	-%
2023-02-15	ASHFORD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	sold off	-100	-19,871,000	-	-%
2023-02-15	ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P.	sold off	-100	-23,426,000	-	-%
2023-02-15	NFC Investments, LLC	sold off	-100	-48,234,000	-	-%
2023-02-15	Metropolitan Life Insurance Co/NY	sold off	-100	-67,000	-	-%
2023-02-15	MetLife Investment Management, LLC	sold off	-100	-576,000	-	-%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying LFG calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own LFG

No. of Funds

Archaea Energy News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Archaea Energy

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 14, 2023	baupost group llc/ma	0%	0	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2023	kensico capital management corp	12.%	0	SC 13G/A
Dec 28, 2022	shalennial fund i, l.p.	0%	0	SC 13D/A
Dec 27, 2022	glazer capital, llc	5.41%	4,411,878	SC 13G
Oct 26, 2022	bp products north america inc.	29.9%	34,671,776	SC 13D
Oct 18, 2022	shalennial fund i, l.p.	13.4%	12,499,929	SC 13D/A
Sep 19, 2022	archaea energy llc	0.0%	0	SC 13D/A
May 13, 2022	archaea energy llc	19.9%	20,010,231	SC 13D/A
Mar 28, 2022	aria renewable energy systems llc	0%	0	SC 13D/A
Feb 14, 2022	third point llc	8.3%	4,454,110	SC 13G

LFG Fair Value

Archaea Energy fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Archaea Energy for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	3.93 -	5.14 -	10.02 -	18.59 -	35.91 -
Current Inflation	3.84 -	4.90 -	9.10 -	16.34 -	30.92 -
Very High Inflation	3.72 -	4.61 -	8.02 -	13.76 -	25.23 -

Historical Archaea Energy Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Archaea Energy

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Feb 14, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 14, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Jan 09, 2023	15-12G	15-12G
Jan 04, 2023	EFFECT	EFFECT
Dec 28, 2022	4	Insider Trading
Dec 28, 2022	25-NSE	25-NSE
Dec 28, 2022	4	Insider Trading
Dec 28, 2022	4	Insider Trading
Dec 28, 2022	4	Insider Trading
Dec 28, 2022	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for LFG

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2022-12-28	Walton Richard	back to issuer	-	-	-74,368	president
2022-12-28	Derham Kyle	back to issuer	-	-	-1,035,690	-
2022-12-28	Malchow Joseph Ian	back to issuer	-	-	-136,674	-
2022-12-28	Rice Daniel J. IV	back to issuer	-	-	-12,499,900	-
2022-12-28	Taibi Edward P.	back to issuer	-	-	-79,326	gc, evp strat init & gov aff
2022-12-28	Walton Richard	back to issuer	-1,300,000	26.00	-50,000	president
2022-12-28	Jackson Kathryn Jean	back to issuer	-226,590	26.00	-8,715	-
2022-12-28	Derham Kyle	back to issuer	-1,006,590	26.00	-38,715	-
2022-12-28	McCarthy Brian F	back to issuer	-156,000	1.66304	-93,804	chief financial officer
2022-12-28	Stork Nicholas	back to issuer	-1,300,000	26.00	-50,000	chief executive officer

About Archaea Energy

Nicholas Stork

https://www.archaeaenergy.com/

290

Archaea Energy Inc. operates as a renewable natural gas (RNG) and renewable electricity producer in the United States. It owns and operates a diversified portfolio of 23 landfill gas recovery and processing projects across 12 states, including 13 projects that collectively generate approximately 177.3 MW of electric capacity and 10 projects that have capacity to produce approximately 27,480 million of British thermal units per day of pipeline-quality RNG. The company was founded in 2018 and is based in Houston, Texas.

LFG Income Statement

2022-09-30

Consolidated Statements of Operations - USD ($)
$ in Thousands

3 Months Ended

9 Months Ended

Sep. 30, 2022

Sep. 30, 2021

Sep. 30, 2022

Sep. 30, 2021

Revenues and Other Income

Revenue

$ 102,271

$ 11,781

$ 230,850

$ 18,563

Amortization of intangibles and below-market contracts

2,722

205

8,259

205

Total revenues

104,993

11,986

239,109

18,768

Equity Investment Income, Net

2,945

879

7,067

879

Cost of Sales

Cost of energy

63,253

9,478

138,531

12,625

Cost of other revenues

3,109

615

7,049

2,976

Depreciation, amortization and accretion

16,972

3,142

43,191

4,077

Total Cost of Sales

83,334

13,235

188,771

19,678

General and administrative expenses

30,478

11,889

75,714

22,933

Operating Income (Loss)

(5,874)

(12,259)

(18,309)

(22,964)

Other Income (Expense)

Interest expense, net

(10,575)

(1,586)

(16,941)

(1,606)

Gain (loss) on warrants and derivative contracts

(7,605)

(10,413)

10,575

(10,413)

Other income (expense)

(124)

377

Total Other Income (Expense)

(18,304)

(11,918)

(6,288)

(11,642)

Income (Loss) Before Income Taxes

(24,178)

(24,177)

(24,597)

(34,606)

Income tax expense

186

Net income (loss)

(24,235)

(24,177)

(24,783)

(34,606)

Net income (loss) attributable to nonredeemable noncontrolling interests

(2,020)

(335)

(2,020)

(589)

Net income (loss) attributable to Legacy Archaea

(8,569)

(18,744)

Net income (loss) attributable to redeemable noncontrolling interests

(7,224)

$ (8,262)

(11,295)

$ (8,262)

Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Class A Common Stock

$ (17,011)

$ (13,488)

Net income (loss) per Class A Common Stock:

Net income (loss) – basic (in usd per share)

^[1]

$ (0.18)

$ (0.13)

$ (0.15)

$ (0.13)

Net income (loss) – diluted (in usd per share)

^[1]

$ (0.18)

$ (0.13)

$ (0.18)

$ (0.13)

Weighted average shares of Class A Common Stock outstanding:

Basic (in shares)

^[1]

81,044,814

52,847,195

76,034,987

52,847,195

Diluted (in shares)

^[1]

81,044,814

52,847,195

78,542,786

52,847,195

Class A Units

Other Income (Expense)

Net Income (Loss) Attributable to Class A Common Stock

$ (14,991)

$ (7,011)

$ (11,468)

$ (7,011)

Weighted average shares of Class A Common Stock outstanding:

Basic (in shares)

81,045,000

52,847,000

76,035,000

52,847,000

Diluted (in shares)

81,045,000

52,847,000

78,543,000

52,847,000

Energy revenue

Revenues and Other Income

Revenue

$ 98,377

$ 10,916

$ 222,528

$ 13,975

Other revenue

Revenues and Other Income

Revenue

$ 3,894

$ 865

$ 8,322

$ 4,588

[1]	Class A Common Stock is outstanding beginning September 15, 2021 due to the reverse recapitalization transaction as described in “Note 4 - Business Combinations and Reverse Recapitalization.”

LFG Balance Sheet

2022-09-30

Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Sep. 30, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current Assets
Cash and cash equivalents ($191,404 related to VIE)	$ 299,467	$ 77,860
Restricted cash	19,225	15,206
Accounts receivable, net ($40 related to VIE)	47,255	37,010
Inventory	19,084	9,164
Prepaid expenses and other current assets ($105 related to VIE)	34,956	21,225
Total Current Assets	419,987	160,465
Property, plant and equipment, net ($103,359 related to VIE)	596,112	350,583
Intangible assets, net ($217,117 related to VIE)	999,787	638,471
Goodwill	47,833	29,211
Equity method investments	260,111	262,738
Operating lease right-of-use assets	6,639	0
Other non-current assets	16,573	9,721
Total Assets	2,347,042	1,451,189
Current Liabilities
Accounts payable - trade ($21,186 related to VIE)	31,777	11,096
Current portion of long-term debt, net	24,120	11,378
Current portion of operating lease liabilities	1,239	0
Accrued and other current liabilities ($632 related to VIE)	93,694	46,279
Total Current Liabilities	150,830	68,753
Long-term debt, net	887,824	331,396
Derivative liabilities	53,349	67,424
Below-market contracts	132,626	142,630
Asset retirement obligations	9,656	4,677
Long-term operating lease liabilities	5,657	0
Other long-term liabilities	2,553	5,316
Liabilities	1,242,495	620,196
Commitments and Contingencies
Redeemable Noncontrolling Interests	703,339	993,301
Equity
Preferred stock, $0.0001 par value; 10,000,000 authorized; none issued and outstanding	0	0
Additional paid in capital	304,296	0
Accumulated deficit	(173,788)	(162,320)
Total Stockholders’ Equity	130,520	(162,308)
Nonredeemable noncontrolling interests	270,688	0
Total Equity	401,208	(162,308)
Total Liabilities, Redeemable Noncontrolling Interests and Equity	2,347,042	1,451,189
Class A Units
Equity
Common stock	8	7
Class B Units
Equity
Common stock	$ 4	$ 5