Alcoa Corp Stock Research

Market Summary

USD40.71+0.65

Market Closed

1.62%

AA Alerts

Big fall in Revenue (Y/Y)
Losses in recent quarter

AA Stock Price

AA RSI Chart

AA Valuation

Market Cap

7.2B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

-58.56

Price/Sales (Trailing)

0.58

EV/EBITDA

5.37

Price/Free Cashflow

21.06

AA Price/Sales (Trailing)

AA Profitability

EBT Margin

5.64%

Return on Equity

-2.42%

Return on Assets

-0.83%

Free Cashflow Yield

4.75%

AA Fundamentals

AA Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

12.5B

Revenue Y/Y

-20.27%

Revenue Q/Q

-6.59%

AA Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

-123.0M

Earnings Y/Y

-0.77%

Earnings Q/Q

47.05%

Price Action

52 Week Range

33.4797.48

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-0.1%

Last 30 days

-15.3%

Last 90 days

-7.9%

Trailing 12 Months

-56.5%

AA Financial Health

Current Ratio

1.75

Debt/Equity

0.36

Debt/Cashflow

0.46

AA Investor Care

Dividend Yield

0.25%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

0.1

Buy Backs (1Y)

5.43%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

-0.68

Peers (Alternatives to Alcoa)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
SCCO	55.7B	10.0B	-3.08%	-2.50%	21.04	5.55	-8.10%	-22.37%
FCX	54.9B	22.8B	-10.03%	-21.86%	12.26	2.41	-0.28%	-16.51%
NUE	38.8B	41.5B	-8.32%	2.71%	5.11	0.94	13.78%	11.42%
NEM	38.2B	11.9B	6.60%	-38.48%	-89	3.2	-2.51%	-136.79%
STLD	18.8B	22.3B	-10.95%	28.06%	4.83	0.84	20.92%	19.49%
RS	14.7B	17.0B	3.51%	30.62%	7.98	0.86	20.80%	30.11%
MID-CAP
AA	7.2B	12.5B	-15.31%	-56.52%	-58.56	0.58	2.46%	-128.67%
X	4.9B	21.1B	-10.87%	-29.11%	1.42	0.22	3.90%	-39.53%
HL	3.3B	718.9M	15.98%	-12.37%	-87.3	4.54	-10.97%	-206.42%
ARNC	2.6B	9.0B	18.74%	5.62%	-14.37	0.29	19.42%	54.16%
MTRN	2.2B	1.8B	1.49%	25.63%	26.03	1.27	16.32%	18.65%
SMALL-CAP
KALU	1.1B	3.4B	-22.17%	-29.51%	-35.66	0.31	41.60%	-60.00%
CENX	827.2M	2.8B	-11.78%	-68.95%	-58.67	0.3	25.53%	91.56%
AP	43.9M	381.2M	-11.02%	-64.69%	-4.64	0.12	9.71%	-615.11%
UAMY	40.4M	11.8M	-4.55%	-30.91%	32.93	3.43	82.07%	167.89%

Financials for Alcoa

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	-5.2%	12,451	13,128	13,386	12,575	12,152
S&GA Expenses	-1.9%	204	208	217	219	227
R&D Expenses	-3.0%	32.00	33.00	34.00	33.00	31.00
EBITDA	-11.7%	1,425	1,614	2,880	-	-
EBITDA Margin	-6.9%	0.11*	0.12*	0.22*	-	-
Earnings Before Taxes	-19.4%	702	871	2,097	1,650	1,199
EBT Margin	-15.0%	0.06*	0.07*	0.16*	-	-
Interest Expenses	-1.9%	106	108	141	178	195
Net Income	-238.2%	-123	89.00	1,172	848	429
Net Income Margin	-245.7%	-0.01*	0.01*	0.07*	-	-
Free Cahsflow	-57.6%	342	807	1,153	-	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	-0.9%	14,756	14,885	15,709	15,988	15,025
Current Assets	-1.9%	5,250	5,350	5,863	5,598	5,026
Cash Equivalents	-4.8%	1,363	1,432	1,638	1,554	1,814
Inventory	1.1%	2,427	2,400	2,556	2,495	1,956
Net PPE	3.8%	6,493	6,254	6,457	6,824	6,623
Liabilities	2.2%	8,167	7,993	8,417	9,731	8,741
Current Liabilities	1.7%	3,004	2,954	3,236	3,466	3,223
. Short Term Borrowings	-	75.00	-	-	-	-
Long Term Debt	4.7%	1,806	1,725	1,725	1,727	1,726
LT Debt, Current	-	1.00	-	-	-	-
LT Debt, Non Current	-	1,726	-	-	-	-
Shareholder's Equity	-5.5%	5,076	5,371	7,292	6,257	4,672
Retained Earnings	-260.8%	-570	-158	606	114	-315
Additional Paid-In Capital	0.1%	9,183	9,171	9,313	9,537	9,577
Accumulated Depreciation	-3.2%	12,765	13,190	13,621	13,130	-
Minority Interest	-0.5%	1,513	1,521	1,626	1,678	1,612

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	-35.2%	822	1,269	1,570	948	920
Share Based Compensation	-2.4%	40.00	41.00	41.00	40.00	39.00
Cashflow From Investing	-115.2%	-495	-230	-169	-42.00	565
Cashflow From Financing	17.9%	-768	-935	-1,295	-1,795	-1,158
Dividend Payments	-2.7%	72.00	74.00	75.00	74.00	19.00
Buy Backs	-23.1%	500	650	667	450	150

Risks for AA

What is the probability of a big loss on AA?

100%

Probability that Alcoa stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

71.9%

Probability that Alcoa stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

65%

Probability that Alcoa stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does AA drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Alcoa was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for AA

Cumulative Returns on AA

-1.7%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

93.5%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for AA?

FIve years rolling returns for Alcoa.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold AA recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	added	40.68	6,452,360	13,617,400	0.01%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	added	42.05	485,000	1,013,000	-%
2023-03-02	OLIVER LAGORE VANVALIN INVESTMENT GROUP	unchanged	-	955	1,955	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	reduced	-3.79	6,734,160	29,211,200	0.04%
2023-02-27	Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P.	reduced	-74.48	-9,441,630	4,966,370	0.01%
2023-02-24	SRS Capital Advisors, Inc.	added	10.26	960	1,960	-%
2023-02-24	NATIXIS	reduced	-93.00	-8,062,900	831,101	-%
2023-02-22	TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY	unchanged	-	347,000	1,337,000	0.01%
2023-02-22	CVA Family Office, LLC	sold off	-100	-	-	-%
2023-02-21	Empirical Finance, LLC	added	0.7	128,437	484,437	0.05%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying AA calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own AA

No. of Funds

Alcoa News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Alcoa

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 10, 2023	vanguard group inc	10.06%	17,806,700	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	9.99%	17,673,416	SC 13G/A
Jan 30, 2023	blackrock inc.	12.6%	22,267,957	SC 13G
Feb 09, 2022	vanguard group inc	9.68%	18,119,209	SC 13G/A
Jan 10, 2022	blackrock inc.	10.6%	19,840,330	SC 13G
Jul 12, 2021	blackrock inc.	4.4%	8,239,357	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2021	renaissance technologies llc	0.60%	1,111,996	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2021	vanguard group inc	8.80%	16,363,905	SC 13G/A
Jan 29, 2021	blackrock inc.	7.5%	13,925,422	SC 13G/A
Oct 09, 2020	capital research global investors	0.0%	27,753	SC 13G/A

AA Fair Value

Alcoa fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Alcoa for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	33.98 -16.53%	46.39 13.95%	66.72 63.89%	94.90 133.11%	122.96 202.04%
Current Inflation	32.61 -19.90%	43.95 7.96%	60.63 48.93%	84.97 108.72%	108.97 167.67%
Very High Inflation	30.84 -24.24%	40.83 0.29%	53.39 31.15%	73.28 80.00%	92.64 127.56%

Historical Alcoa Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Alcoa

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 16, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Mar 16, 2023	ARS	ARS
Mar 16, 2023	DEF 14A	DEF 14A
Mar 16, 2023	DEFA14A	DEFA14A
Mar 16, 2023	DEFA14A	DEFA14A
Feb 23, 2023	10-K	Annual Report
Feb 10, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 10, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 09, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for AA

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-02-08	Harvey Roy Christopher	sold	-1,540,170	51.339	-30,000	president, ceo & director
2023-02-01	Bacchi Renato	sold	-535,000	53.5	-10,000	evp & csio
2023-01-31	Elam Harden Sonya	sold	-234,142	51.8702	-4,514	evp & chief ext. aff. officer
2023-01-30	Oplinger William F	sold	-11.9215	52.75	-0.226	evp & cfo
2023-01-27	Oplinger William F	sold	-7,130,250	53.0351	-134,444	evp & cfo
2023-01-27	Oplinger William F	acquired	274,204	27.96	9,807	evp & cfo
2023-01-27	Heeter Jeffrey D.	sold	-2,055,060	51.21	-40,130	evp & gen. counsel
2023-01-25	Oplinger William F	sold (taxes)	-2,240,150	52.19	-42,923	evp & cfo
2023-01-25	Jones Tammi A	acquired	-	-	2,880	evp & chro
2023-01-25	Heeter Jeffrey D.	acquired	-	-	73,540	evp & gen. counsel

About Alcoa

Roy C. Harvey

www.alcoa.com

12200

Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the United States, Spain, Australia, Iceland, Norway, Brazil, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Bauxite, Alumina, and Aluminum. It engages in bauxite mining operations; and processes bauxite into alumina and sells it to customers who process it into industrial chemical products, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses. The company offers primary aluminum in the form of alloy ingot or value-add ingot to customers that produce products for the transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets. In addition, it owns hydro power plants that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in October 2016. The company was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

AA Income Statement

2022-12-31

Statement of Consolidated Operations - USD ($) $ in Millions	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
Income Statement [Abstract]
Sales (E)	$ 12,451	$ 12,152	$ 9,286
Cost of goods sold (exclusive of expenses below)	10,212	9,153	7,969
Selling, general administrative, and other expenses	204	227	206
Research and development expenses	32	31	27
Provision for depreciation, depletion, and amortization	617	664	653
Restructuring and other charges, net (D)	696	1,128	104
Interest expense (U)	106	195	146
Other (income) expenses, net (U)	(118)	(445)	8
Total costs and expenses	11,749	10,953	9,113
Income before income taxes	702	1,199	173
Provision for income taxes (Q)	664	629	187
Net income (loss)	38	570	(14)
Less: Net income attributable to noncontrolling interest	161	141	156
Net (loss) income attributable to Alcoa Corporation	$ (123)	$ 429	$ (170)
Earnings per share attributable to Alcoa Corporation common shareholders (F):
Basic	$ (0.68)	$ 2.30	$ (0.91)
Diluted	$ (0.68)	$ 2.26	$ (0.91)

AA Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

Consolidated Balance Sheet - USD ($) $ in Millions	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents (P)	$ 1,363	$ 1,814
Receivables from customers	778	757
Other receivables	131	127
Inventories (J)	2,427	1,956
Fair value of derivative instruments (P)	134	14
Prepaid expenses and other current assets	417	358
Total current assets	5,250	5,026
Properties, plants, and equipment, net (K)	6,493	6,623
Investments (H)	1,122	1,199
Deferred income taxes (Q)	296	506
Fair value of derivative instruments (P)	2	7
Other noncurrent assets (U)	1,593	1,664
Total Assets	14,756	15,025
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable, trade	1,757	1,674
Accrued compensation and retirement costs	335	383
Taxes, including income taxes	230	374
Fair value of derivative instruments (P)	200	274
Other current liabilities	481	517
Long-term debt due within one year (M & P)	1	1
Total current liabilities	3,004	3,223
Long-term debt, less amount due within one year (M & P)	1,806	1,726
Accrued pension benefits (O)	213	417
Accrued other postretirement benefits (O)	480	650
Asset retirement obligations (R)	711	622
Environmental remediation (S)	226	265
Fair value of derivative instruments (P)	1,026	1,048
Noncurrent income taxes (Q)	215	191
Other noncurrent liabilities and deferred credits (U)	486	599
Total liabilities	8,167	8,741
Contingencies and commitments (S)
Alcoa Corporation shareholders’ equity:
Common stock (N)	2	2
Additional capital	9,183	9,577
Accumulated deficit	(570)	(315)
Accumulated other comprehensive loss (G)	(3,539)	(4,592)
Total Alcoa Corporation shareholders’ equity	5,076	4,672
Noncontrolling interest (A)	1,513	1,612
Total equity	6,589	6,284
Total Liabilities and Equity	$ 14,756	$ 15,025