Grufity logoGrufity logo

Advance Auto Parts Inc Stock Research

AAP

122.03USD+0.26(+0.21%)Market Closed

Market Summary

USD122.03+0.26
Market Closed
0.21%

AAP Stock Price

AAP RSI Chart

AAP Valuation

Market Cap

7.2B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

14.41

Price/Sales (Trailing)

0.65

EV/EBITDA

8.33

Price/Free Cashflow

24.26

AAP Price/Sales (Trailing)

AAP Profitability

EBT Margin

5.82%

Return on Equity

18.74%

Return on Assets

4.18%

Free Cashflow Yield

4.12%

AAP Fundamentals

AAP Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

11.2B

Revenue Y/Y

3.2%

Revenue Q/Q

-6.35%

AAP Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

501.9M

Earnings Y/Y

30.64%

Earnings Q/Q

-3.86%

Price Action

52 Week Range

119.90229.42
(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-7.9%

Last 30 days

-20.0%

Last 90 days

-15.0%

Trailing 12 Months

-39.4%

AAP Financial Health

Current Ratio

1.13

Debt/Equity

0.44

Debt/Cashflow

0.61

AAP Investor Care

Dividend Yield

4.92%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

6

Buy Backs (1Y)

4.43%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

8.27

Peers (Alternatives to Advance Auto Parts)

View All Peers In Detail
NameMkt Capsorted ascendingRevenuePrice %, 1MReturns, 1YP/EP/SRev 1-YrInc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
51.1B
14.4B
-3.68% 17.59%
23.52
3.55
8.12% 0.37%
45.9B
16.6B
-5.03% 25.56%
19
2.77
9.40% 5.72%
9.2B
31.6B
-21.26% -41.41%
16.05
0.29
7.73% -52.09%
MID-CAP
9.4B
27.8B
-6.81% 33.10%
6.82
0.34
8.84% 16.18%
7.2B
11.2B
-19.99% -39.43%
14.41
0.65
1.43% -18.54%
6.2B
27.0B
-7.44% 8.91%
4.49
0.23
4.41% 0.32%
5.9B
28.2B
-23.37% -34.80%
4.69
0.21
23.46% 18.01%
5.8B
23.4B
-10.97% 27.85%
8.56
0.25
35.05% 69.54%
4.5B
15.4B
-14.19% 7.43%
4.5
0.29
66.05% 78.54%
3.7B
15.6B
-28.99% -30.03%
-18.17
0.24
-6.32% -178.91%
SMALL-CAP
1.3B
10.8B
76.06% 95.13%
7.77
0.12
47.82% 180.33%
883.4M
7.0B
-18.31% -29.13%
6.45
0.13
0.77% -50.82%
624.3M
2.3B
-9.40% -37.18%
3.44
0.27
10.30% 8.61%
480.1M
1.3B
-17.71% -15.01%
7.71
0.36
25.02% -44.81%

Financials for Advance Auto Parts

Income Statement (Last 12 Months)
(In Millions)
* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q32022Q22021Q4
Revenue0.7%11,15511,07811,05811,04210,998
Gross Profit0.4%4,9624,9444,9474,9504,929
  S&GA Expenses0.0%4,2484,2504,2004,1604,090
EBITDA0.9%9799701,012--
EBITDA Margin0.1%0.09*0.09*0.09*--
Earnings Before Taxes4.4%649621696743806
EBT Margin3.7%0.06*0.06*0.06*0.07*-
Interest Expenses26.9%46.0036.00---
Net Income5.2%502477536570616
Net Income Margin4.5%0.04*0.04*0.05*0.05*-
Free Cahsflow25.2%298238273394-
Balance Sheet
(In Millions)
* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q32022Q22021Q4
Assets-0.9%12,01812,13212,13812,00212,194
  Current Assets-1.9%6,0476,1636,1836,0586,275
    Cash Equivalents40.8%269191241139601
  Inventory-0.2%4,9154,9274,8304,7794,659
  Net PPE1.6%1,6901,6641,6111,5681,528
  Goodwill0.1%990990992994994
Liabilities-0.8%9,3409,4169,3439,0939,066
  Current Liabilities-1.3%5,3705,4435,3425,0535,180
  Long Term Debt0.0%1,1881,1881,1871,034-
    LT Debt, Current0%185185100--
    LT Debt, Non Current14.9%1,1881,034---
Shareholder's Equity-1.4%2,6782,7162,7952,9103,128
  Retained Earnings0.4%4,7454,7274,7074,6534,606
  Additional Paid-In Capital1.3%898886876862845
Accumulated Depreciation102102.5%2,5903.003.002.002,404
Shares Outstanding-1.3%59.0060.0060.0061.0062.00
Cashflow (Last 12 Months)
(In Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q32022Q22021Q4
Cashflow From Operations7.7%7226706457271,112
  Share Based Compensation-5.1%51.0054.0059.0064.0063.00
Cashflow From Investing1.3%-424-430-369-331-287
Cashflow From Financing3.2%-620-641-853-1,121-1,064
  Dividend Payments0%336336309283161
  Buy Backs-3.3%618639793987906

Risks for AAP

What is the probability of a big loss on AAP?

55.4%


Probability that Advance Auto Parts stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

34.2%


Probability that Advance Auto Parts stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

24.2%


Probability that Advance Auto Parts stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.
*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does AAP drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Advance Auto Parts was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for AAP

Cumulative Returns on AAP

4.9%


10-Year Cumulative Returns

-3.1%


7-Year Cumulative Returns

1.7%


5-Year Cumulative Returns

3.7%


3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for AAP?

FIve years rolling returns for Advance Auto Parts.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold AAP recently?

View All Details
Datesorted ascendingFund NameType% Chg$ Change$ Held% Portfolio
2023-03-15
B. Riley Wealth Advisors, Inc.
reduced
-8.48
-32,787
211,213
0.01%
2023-03-10
VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC
reduced
-9.91
-4,559,630
25,286,400
0.03%
2023-03-06
Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.
added
12.3
86,000
1,632,000
0.01%
2023-02-28
Voya Investment Management LLC
reduced
-2.67
-319,885
3,462,120
-%
2023-02-27
Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P.
new
-
1,590,720
1,590,720
-%
2023-02-24
National Pension Service
unchanged
-
-177,552
2,066,950
-%
2023-02-24
NATIXIS
reduced
-67.89
-9,264,550
4,007,450
0.02%
2023-02-22
IMS Capital Management
new
-
279,357
279,357
0.18%
2023-02-22
TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY
unchanged
-
-55,000
861,000
0.01%
2023-02-22
CVA Family Office, LLC
reduced
-81.63
-6,677
1,323
-%

1–10 of 44

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying AAP calls or puts?
Calls
Puts
Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?
Net Call Options
No. of funds that own AAP
No. of Funds

Advance Auto Parts News

MarketBeat

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP) Stock Position Raised by ....

MarketBeat,
18 hours ago

Seeking Alpha

Seattle PI

Schedule 13G FIlings of Advance Auto Parts

Date FiledName of FilerPercent of ClassNo. of SharesForm Type
Feb 15, 2023
barrow hanley mewhinney & strauss llc
12.%
10
SC 13G
Feb 10, 2023
clearbridge investments, llc
4.3%
2,555,163
SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023
vanguard group inc
13.00%
7,700,330
SC 13G/A
Feb 01, 2023
blackrock inc.
7.0%
4,123,923
SC 13G/A
Jan 06, 2023
jpmorgan chase & co
5.7%
3,396,757
SC 13G
Feb 14, 2022
melvin capital management lp
1.8%
1,142,000
SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2022
barrow hanley mewhinney & strauss llc
5.68%
3,543,834
SC 13G
Feb 09, 2022
vanguard group inc
10.76%
6,708,765
SC 13G/A
Feb 08, 2022
clearbridge investments, llc
5.1%
3,198,900
SC 13G/A
Feb 03, 2022
blackrock inc.
7.4%
4,592,702
SC 13G/A

AAP Fair Value

Advance Auto Parts fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Advance Auto Parts for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.
Fair ValueVery PessimisticPessimisticBase CaseOptimisticVery Optimistic
Very Low Inflation

75.77

-37.91%

90.84

-25.56%

126.73

3.85%

182.98

49.95%

213.18

74.69%
Current Inflation

71.13

-41.71%

84.32

-30.90%

115.00

-5.76%

162.54

33.20%

187.91

53.99%
Very High Inflation

65.26

-46.52%

76.21

-37.55%

100.87

-17.34%

138.55

13.54%

158.51

29.89%

Historical Advance Auto Parts Fair Value Estimates


Very Pessimistic Case
Pessimistic Case
Fair Value
Optimistic Case
Very Optimistic Case
Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Advance Auto Parts

View All Filings
Date Filed Form Type Document
Mar 09, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Mar 09, 2023
8-K
Current Report
Mar 09, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Mar 09, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Mar 09, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Mar 09, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Mar 09, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Mar 09, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Mar 08, 2023
424B2
Prospectus Filed
Mar 08, 2023
4
Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for AAP

Filter Transactions
Datesorted ascendingNameBuy/Sell$ ValueAvg. Price# SharesTitle
2023-03-08
Shepherd Jeffrey W
sold (taxes)
-27,896
132
-211
evp, cfo
2023-03-08
Schechtman Natalie
sold (taxes)
-19,434
132
-147
evp human resources
2023-03-08
Word Herman L Jr
sold (taxes)
-5,552
132
-42.00
evp, u.s. stores & cq ind.
2023-03-08
McDonell Jason
sold (taxes)
-23,533
132
-178
evp, merch, marketing & e-comm
2023-03-08
Greco Thomas
sold (taxes)
-167,510
132
-1,267
president and ceo
2023-03-08
Finley Tammy M
sold (taxes)
-13,221
132
-100
evp, general counsel, corp sec
2023-03-08
Cushing Robert B
sold (taxes)
-25,384
132
-192
evp, professional
2023-03-06
Word Herman L Jr
acquired
287,557
135
2,128
evp, u.s. stores & cq ind.
2023-03-06
Cushing Robert B
acquired
249,990
135
1,850
evp, professional
2023-03-06
Shepherd Jeffrey W
acquired
474,982
135
3,515
evp, cfo

1–10 of 50

Thomas R. Greco
41000
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries, and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles, and light and heavy duty trucks. The company offers battery accessories; belts and hoses; brakes and brake pads; chassis and climate control parts; clutches and drive shafts; engines and engine parts; exhaust systems and parts; hub assemblies; ignition components and wires; radiators and cooling parts; starters and alternators; and steering and alignment parts. It also offers air conditioning chemicals and accessories; air fresheners; antifreeze and washer fluids; electrical wires and fuses; electronics; floor mats, seat covers, and interior accessories; hand and specialty tools; lighting products; performance parts; sealants, adhesives and compounds; tire repair accessories; vent shades, mirrors and exterior accessories; washes, waxes and cleaning supplies; and wiper blades. In addition, the company offers air filters; fuel and oil additives; fuel filters; grease and lubricants; motor oils; oil filters, part cleaners and treatments; and transmission fluids for engine maintenance. Further, it offers battery and wiper installation; engine light scanning and checking; electrical system testing; video clinic; oil and battery recycling; and loaner tool program services. Additionally, the company sells its products through its website. It serves professional installers and do-it-yourself customers. The company operates stores under the Advance Auto Parts, Autopart International, and Carquest brands, as well as branches under the Worldpac name. As of January 2, 2022, it operated 4,706 stores and 266 branches in the United States, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Canada; and served 1,317 independently owned Carquest branded stores in Mexico, Grand Cayman, the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and the British Virgin Islands. The company was founded in 1929 and is based in Raleigh, North Carolina.

AAP Income Statement

2022-12-31
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS - USD ($)
shares in Thousands, $ in Thousands
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2022
Jan. 01, 2022
Jan. 02, 2021
Net sales$ 11,154,722$ 10,997,989$ 10,106,321
Cost of sales6,192,6226,069,2415,624,707
Gross profit4,962,1004,928,7484,481,614
Selling, general and administrative expenses4,247,9494,090,0313,731,707
Operating income714,151838,717749,907
Other, net:   
Interest expense(51,060)(37,791)(46,886)
Loss on early redemptions of senior unsecured notes(7,408)0(48,022)
Other (expense) income, net(6,996)4,999(3,984)
Total other, net(65,464)(32,792)(98,892)
Income before provision for income taxes648,687805,925651,015
Provision for income taxes(146,815)(189,817)(157,994)
Net Income$ 501,872$ 616,108$ 493,021
Basic earnings per common share (in usd per share)$ 8.32$ 9.62$ 7.17
Weighted average common shares outstanding60,35164,02868,748
Diluted earnings per common share (in usd per share)$ 8.27$ 9.55$ 7.14
Weighted average common shares outstanding60,71764,50969,003

AAP Balance Sheet

2022-12-31
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS - USD ($)
$ in Thousands
Dec. 31, 2022
Jan. 01, 2022
Current assets:  
Cash and cash equivalents$ 269,282$ 601,428
Receivables, net698,613782,785
Inventories4,915,2624,659,018
Other current assets163,695232,245
Total current assets6,046,8526,275,476
Property and equipment, net of accumulated depreciation of $2,590,382 and $2,403,5671,690,1391,528,311
Operating lease right-of-use assets2,607,6902,671,810
Goodwill990,471993,744
Intangible assets, net620,901651,217
Other assets62,42973,651
Total assets12,018,48212,194,209
Current liabilities:  
Accounts payable4,123,4623,922,007
Accrued expenses634,447777,051
Long-term Debt, Current Maturities185,0000
Other current liabilities427,480481,249
Total current liabilities5,370,3895,180,307
Long-term debt1,188,2831,034,320
Non-current operating lease liabilities2,278,3182,337,651
Deferred income taxes415,997410,606
Other long-term liabilities87,214103,034
Commitments and Contingencies
Total liabilities9,340,2019,065,918
Stockholders' equity:  
Preferred stock, nonvoting, $0.0001 par value, 10,000 shares authorized; no shares issued or outstanding00
Common stock, voting, $0.0001 par value, 200,000 shares authorized; 0 shares issued and 0 outstanding at January 1, 2022 and 76,305 shares issued and 66,361 outstanding at January 2, 202188
Additional paid-in capital897,560845,407
Treasury stock, at cost, 17,724 and 14,654 shares(2,918,768)(2,300,288)
Accumulated other comprehensive loss(45,143)(22,627)
Retained earnings4,744,6244,605,791
Total stockholders' equity2,678,2813,128,291
Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity, Total$ 12,018,482$ 12,194,209