Archer Daniels Midland Co Stock Research

Market Summary

USD79.66+0.19

Delayed

0.24%

ADM Stock Price

ADM RSI Chart

ADM Valuation

Market Cap

44.7B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

10.3

Price/Sales (Trailing)

0.44

EV/EBITDA

6.56

Price/Free Cashflow

20.7

ADM Price/Sales (Trailing)

ADM Profitability

Operating Margin

7.45%

EBT Margin

5.15%

Return on Equity

17.85%

Return on Assets

7.26%

Free Cashflow Yield

4.83%

ADM Fundamentals

ADM Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

101.6B

Revenue Y/Y

12.34%

Revenue Q/Q

5.09%

ADM Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

4.3B

Earnings Y/Y

30.31%

Earnings Q/Q

-1.16%

Price Action

52 Week Range

69.0297.59

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

4.0%

Last 30 days

0.5%

Last 90 days

-13.7%

Trailing 12 Months

-10.0%

ADM Financial Health

Current Ratio

1.46

ADM Investor Care

Dividend Yield

2.01%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

1.6

Buy Backs (1Y)

0.53%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

7.71

Peers (Alternatives to Archer Daniels Midland)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
GIS	47.8B	19.4B	8.38%	28.93%	16.42	2.47	4.08%	30.06%
ADM	44.7B	101.6B	0.53%	-10.05%	10.3	0.44	19.13%	60.21%
BG	14.3B	67.2B	0.37%	-11.76%	8.89	0.21	13.66%	-22.48%
MID-CAP
DAR	9.4B	6.5B	-8.68%	-27.35%	12.69	1.43	37.77%	13.33%
INGR	6.7B	7.9B	0.81%	18.59%	13.61	0.84	15.26%	320.51%
POST	5.3B	6.1B	0.21%	29.76%	6.08	0.87	18.23%	1243.59%
FRPT	3.2B	595.3M	3.66%	-35.51%	-53.44	5.34	39.92%	-100.32%
TR	3.1B	687.0M	6.26%	28.46%	40.73	4.5	20.36%	16.24%
JJSF	2.8B	1.4B	5.48%	-3.95%	66.6	2.02	15.66%	-34.11%
SMALL-CAP
BRID	126.7M	263.4M	10.14%	28.03%	2.77	0.48	5.45%	786.05%
LWAY	93.6M	136.7M	0.33%	-16.34%	813.82	0.68	20.26%	-96.88%
FARM	76.0M	496.5M	-13.26%	-45.79%	-2.64	0.15	17.42%	-12.94%
RMCF	33.1M	33.1M	6.64%	-29.80%	-9.16	1	2.77%	-346.02%
RIBT	4.9M	39.0M	-21.19%	106.67%	-0.42	0.12	30.61%	-109.87%

Financials for Archer Daniels Midland

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	2.9%	101,556	98,707	94,364	90,006	85,249
Cost Of Revenue	3.0%	93,986	91,249	87,391	83,670	79,262
Gross Profit	1.5%	7,570	7,458	6,973	6,336	5,987
S&GA Expenses	3.4%	3,358	3,247	3,149	3,074	2,994
R&D Expenses	-	171	-	-	-	-
EBITDA	4.0%	6,657	6,401	5,775	5,034	-
EBITDA Margin	1.1%	0.07*	0.06*	0.06*	0.06*	-
Earnings Before Taxes	4.0%	5,233	5,031	4,454	3,760	3,313
EBT Margin	1.1%	0.05*	0.05*	0.05*	0.04*	-
Interest Expenses	16.8%	396	339	303	270	265
Net Income	5.8%	4,340	4,103	3,598	3,074	2,709
Net Income Margin	2.8%	0.04*	0.04*	0.04*	0.03*	-
Free Cahsflow	-22.7%	2,159	2,794	1,671	3,879	-

Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	2.5%	59,774	58,304	61,828	64,866	56,136
Current Assets	2.4%	35,410	34,569	37,647	40,453	31,909
Cash Equivalents	-5.6%	1,037	1,099	906	1,079	943
Inventory	11.2%	14,771	13,282	14,485	17,290	14,481
Net PPE	3.4%	9,933	9,605	9,680	9,794	9,803
Current Liabilities	5.5%	24,191	22,936	25,660	28,523	21,948
. Short Term Borrowings	177.9%	503	181	2,352	3,777	958
LT Debt, Current	6.1%	942	888	1,104	543	570
LT Debt, Non Current	0.8%	7,735	7,671	8,062	8,752	8,011
Shareholder's Equity	1.2%	24,317	24,029	24,426	23,755	22,508
Retained Earnings	2.4%	23,646	23,099	23,292	22,483	21,655
Accumulated Depreciation	1.5%	16,842	16,589	16,595	16,554	16,420
Shares Outstanding	-0.9%	561	566	566	-	-
Minority Interest	3.1%	33.00	32.00	33.00	33.00	31.00

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	-15.0%	3,478	4,090	2,913	5,091	6,595
Share Based Compensation	-1.3%	147	149	144	154	161
Cashflow From Investing	39.9%	-1,400	-2,330	-2,922	-2,842	-2,669
Cashflow From Financing	-29.6%	-2,499	-1,928	949	1,123	-1,118
Dividend Payments	1.6%	899	885	870	852	834
Buy Backs	-9.4%	1,450	1,600	267	0.00	-

Risks for ADM

What is the probability of a big loss on ADM?

42.3%

Probability that Archer Daniels Midland stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

18.5%

Probability that Archer Daniels Midland stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

Probability that Archer Daniels Midland stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does ADM drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Archer Daniels Midland was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for ADM

Cumulative Returns on ADM

11.8%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

15.0%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

16.1%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

34.6%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for ADM?

FIve years rolling returns for Archer Daniels Midland.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold ADM recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-29	Diametric Capital, LP	new	-	731,844	731,844	0.35%
2023-03-23	MetLife Investment Management, LLC	reduced	-3.61	1,346,200	13,315,700	0.11%
2023-03-22	Campion Asset Management	reduced	-6.18	78,279	1,022,280	1.00%
2023-03-17	American Portfolios Advisors	reduced	-2.79	3,875	502,638	0.02%
2023-03-15	B. Riley Wealth Advisors, Inc.	added	9.18	1,215,790	5,890,790	0.16%
2023-03-10	BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	reduced	-2.73	1,941,500	17,776,500	0.02%
2023-03-10	MATHER GROUP, LLC.	reduced	-10.23	452,433	12,975,400	0.25%
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	reduced	-63.05	-145,181,000	107,955,000	0.12%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	added	8.46	1,136,000	5,647,000	0.03%
2023-03-03	TIAA, FSB	reduced	-3.99	76,697	785,697	-%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying ADM calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own ADM

No. of Funds

Archer Daniels Midland News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Archer Daniels Midland

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 13, 2023	capital world investors	7.4%	40,462,244	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	11.36%	62,387,832	SC 13G/A
Feb 06, 2023	state street corp	5.79%	31,809,735	SC 13G/A
Feb 03, 2023	blackrock inc.	8.1%	44,573,583	SC 13G/A
Jan 31, 2023	state farm mutual automobile insurance co	6.19%	34,027,336	SC 13G/A
Feb 11, 2022	capital world investors	7.2%	40,417,605	SC 13G
Feb 10, 2022	state street corp	5.52%	30,871,839	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2022	vanguard group inc	10.59%	59,271,969	SC 13G/A
Feb 02, 2022	state farm mutual automobile insurance co	6.08%	34,031,632	SC 13G/A
Feb 01, 2022	blackrock inc.	7.0%	39,163,535	SC 13G/A

ADM Fair Value

Archer Daniels Midland fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Archer Daniels Midland for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	66.47 -16.56%	88.34 10.90%	115.28 44.72%	166.85 109.45%	275.95 246.41%
Current Inflation	60.23 -24.39%	70.37 -11.66%	92.62 16.27%	110.36 38.54%	176.73 121.86%
Very High Inflation	56.45 -29.14%	73.29 -8.00%	87.07 9.30%	121.66 52.72%	195.16 144.99%

Historical Archer Daniels Midland Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Archer Daniels Midland

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 30, 2023	424B2	Prospectus Filed
Mar 29, 2023	424B2	Prospectus Filed
Mar 29, 2023	FWP	Prospectus Filed
Mar 14, 2023	ARS	ARS
Mar 14, 2023	DEF 14A	DEF 14A
Mar 14, 2023	DEFA14A	DEFA14A
Mar 14, 2023	DEFA14A	DEFA14A
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for ADM

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-02	LUCIANO JUAN R	gifted	-	-	-291,999	president & ceo
2023-03-02	LUCIANO JUAN R	gifted	-	-	291,999	president & ceo
2023-02-13	FINDLAY D CAMERON	sold (taxes)	-4,007,060	82.09	-48,813	senior vice president
2023-02-13	Luthar Vikram	sold (taxes)	-1,210,830	82.09	-14,750	chief financial officer
2023-02-13	Morris Gregory A	sold (taxes)	-5,087,360	82.09	-61,973	senior vice president
2023-02-13	Weber Jennifer L	sold (taxes)	-1,628,750	82.09	-19,841	senior vice president
2023-02-13	Cuddy Christopher M	sold (taxes)	-3,816,860	82.09	-46,496	senior vice president
2023-02-13	LUCIANO JUAN R	sold (taxes)	-19,064,000	82.09	-232,233	president & ceo
2023-02-13	Macciocchi Vincent F	sold (taxes)	-5,087,360	82.09	-61,973	senior vice president
2023-02-13	Strader Fruit Molly L	sold (taxes)	-104,829	82.09	-1,277	vice pres., corp. controller

About Archer Daniels Midland

Juan R. Luciano

www.adm.com

41000

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities, products, and ingredients in the United States, Switzerland, Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. It procures, stores, cleans, and transports agricultural raw materials, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, and barley. The company also engages in the agricultural commodity and feed product import, export, and distribution; and structured trade finance activities. In addition, it offers vegetable oils and protein meals; ingredients for the food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; crude vegetable oils, salad oils, margarine, shortening, and other food products; and partially refined oils to produce biodiesel and glycols for use in chemicals, paints, and other industrial products. Further, the company provides peanuts, peanut-derived ingredients, and cotton cellulose pulp; sweeteners, corn and wheat starches, syrup, glucose, wheat flour, and dextrose; alcohol and other food and animal feed ingredients; ethyl alcohol and ethanol; corn gluten feed and meal; distillers' grains; and citric acids. Additionally, the company provides natural flavors, flavor systems, natural colors, proteins, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, and natural health and nutrition products, including probiotics, prebiotics, enzymes, and botanical extracts; and other specialty food and feed ingredients; edible beans; formula feeds, and animal health and nutrition products; and contract and private label pet treats and foods. It also offers futures commission merchant; commodity brokerage services; cash margins and securities pledged to commodity exchange clearinghouses; and cash pledged as security under certain insurance arrangements. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

ADM Income Statement

2022-12-31

Consolidated Statements Of Earnings - USD ($) shares in Millions, $ in Millions	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
Income Statement [Abstract]
Revenues	$ 101,556	$ 85,249	$ 64,355
Cost of products sold	93,986	79,262	59,902
Gross Profit	7,570	5,987	4,453
Selling, general and administrative expenses	3,358	2,994	2,687
Asset impairment, exit, and restructuring costs	66	164	80
Equity in earnings of unconsolidated affiliates	(832)	(595)	(579)
(Gain) Loss on Extinguishment of Debt	0	36	409
Interest and investment income	(293)	(96)	(111)
Interest Expense	396	265	339
Other Nonoperating Income (Expense)	(358)	(94)	(255)
Earnings Before Income Taxes	5,233	3,313	1,883
Income tax expense	868	578	101
Net Earnings Including Noncontrolling Interests	4,365	2,735	1,782
Less: Net earnings (losses) attributable to noncontrolling interests	25	26	10
Net Earnings Attributable to Controlling Interests	$ 4,340	$ 2,709	$ 1,772
Average number of shares outstanding - basic	562	564	561
Average number of shares outstanding - diluted	563	566	565
Basic earnings per common share (dollars per share)	$ 7.72	$ 4.80	$ 3.16
Diluted earnings per common share (dollars per share)	$ 7.71	$ 4.79	$ 3.15

ADM Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($) $ in Millions	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current Assets
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 1,037	$ 943
Cash and Securities Segregated under Federal and Other Regulations	9,010	8,016
Trade receivables - net	4,926	3,311
Inventories	14,771	14,481
Other current assets	5,666	5,158
Total Current Assets	35,410	31,909
Investments and Other Assets
Investments in and advances to affiliates	5,467	5,285
Goodwill and other intangible assets	6,544	6,747
Operating Lease, Right-of-Use Asset	1,088	1,023
Other assets	1,332	1,369
Total Investments and Other Assets	14,431	14,424
Property, Plant, and Equipment
Land and Land Improvements	502	554
Buildings	5,639	5,597
Machinery and equipment	19,194	19,112
Construction in progress	1,440	960
Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment	26,775	26,223
Accumulated depreciation	(16,842)	(16,420)
Net Property, Plant, and Equipment	9,933	9,803
Total Assets	59,774	56,136
Current Liabilities
Short-term debt	503	958
Trade payables	7,803	6,388
Payables to brokerage customers	9,856	8,965
Operating Lease, Liability, Current	292	277
Accrued expenses and other payables	4,795	4,790
Current maturities of long-term debt	942	570
Total Current Liabilities	24,191	21,948
Long-Term Liabilities
Long-term debt	7,735	8,011
Deferred income taxes	1,402	1,412
Operating Lease, Liability, Noncurrent	816	765
Other	1,014	1,233
Total Long-Term Liabilities	10,967	11,421
Redeemable Noncontrolling Interest, Equity, Carrying Amount	299	259
Shareholders’ Equity
Common stock	3,147	2,994
Reinvested earnings	23,646	21,655
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)	(2,509)	(2,172)
Noncontrolling interests	33	31
Total Shareholders’ Equity	24,317	22,508
Total Liabilities, Temporary Equity, and Shareholders’ Equity	$ 59,774	$ 56,136