American Financial Group Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD116.66+3.91

Market Closed

3.47%

AFG Stock Price

AFG RSI Chart

AFG Valuation

Market Cap

9.9B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

12.12

Price/Sales (Trailing)

1.38

EV/EBITDA

6.21

Price/Free Cashflow

9.44

AFG Price/Sales (Trailing)

AFG Profitability

Return on Equity

22.16%

Return on Assets

3.11%

Free Cashflow Yield

10.6%

AFG Fundamentals

AFG Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

7.2B

Revenue Y/Y

9.57%

Revenue Q/Q

-9.8%

AFG Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

820.0M

Earnings Y/Y

-26.9%

Earnings Q/Q

-23.19%

Price Action

52 Week Range

111.55143.91

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

2.5%

Last 30 days

0.6%

Last 90 days

-12.2%

Trailing 12 Months

-12.3%

AFG Financial Health

Debt/Equity

0.37

Debt/Cashflow

0.77

AFG Investor Care

Dividend Yield

14.04%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

16.38

Shares Dilution (1Y)

0.08%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

9.62

Peers (Alternatives to American Financial Group)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
PGR	80.9B	52.1B	3.56%	8.48%	112.13	1.63	6.08%	-60.84%
TRV	40.5B	37.8B	-2.24%	0.46%	14.45	1.07	6.99%	-29.09%
AIG	39.6B	51.6B	7.50%	-2.82%	3.86	0.7	-3.37%	-38.13%
ALL	29.0B	52.9B	-1.27%	-16.28%	-12.1	0.55	4.73%	-167.90%
RE	24.0B	12.4B	-8.75%	23.20%	40.23	1.93	3.58%	-56.71%
HIG	23.3B	22.9B	1.75%	-1.95%	11.93	1.05	1.76%	-25.56%
Y	11.4B	-	0.57%	29.95%	32.11	0.97	-	-
AFG	9.9B	7.2B	0.64%	-12.35%	12.12	1.38	8.46%	-56.06%
MID-CAP
RNR	8.4B	6.5B	-11.31%	24.81%	-81.39	1.28	18.12%	27.70%
ESGR	4.1B	1.6B	6.32%	13.75%	-22.9	2.51	-	-308.14%
SMALL-CAP
HMN	1.4B	1.4B	-3.85%	-19.16%	-529.92	1	2.59%	-108.90%
PLMR	1.4B	338.2M	9.15%	-13.81%	24.59	4	22.24%	25.58%
PRA	990.7M	1.1B	-29.72%	-42.99%	-2.5K	0.9	-7.68%	-102.27%
JRVR	752.4M	847.3M	-1.53%	-20.92%	24.77	0.89	7.01%	151.37%

Financials for American Financial Group

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2023Q1	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1
Revenue	2.2%	7,192	7,040	6,869	6,639	6,631
S&GA Expenses	3.4%	1,777	1,718	1,651	1,623	1,581
EBITDA	-0.4%	1,841	1,848	-	-	-
EBITDA Margin	-0.5%	0.28*	0.28*	-	-	-
EBT Margin	-0.1%	0.25*	0.25*	-	-	-
Interest Expenses	-4.7%	81.00	85.00	88.00	93.00	93.00
Net Income	-8.7%	820	898	977	1,031	1,866
Net Income Margin	-10.3%	0.13*	0.14*	0.19*	0.28*	-
Free Cahsflow	-13.4%	1,153	1,332	1,258	1,590	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2023Q1	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1
Assets	-1.2%	28,481	28,831	29,532	28,084	28,762
Cash Equivalents	-1.7%	857	872	794	967	1,181
Goodwill	0%	246	246	246	246	246
Liabilities	-1.0%	24,540	24,779	25,600	24,017	23,927
Long Term Debt	-1.2%	1,478	1,496	1,533	1,542	1,917
Shareholder's Equity	-2.7%	3,941	4,052	3,932	4,067	4,835
Additional Paid-In Capital	0.4%	1,374	1,368	1,358	1,351	1,340
Shares Outstanding	0.0%	85.00	85.00	85.00	85.00	85.00

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2023Q1	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1
Cashflow From Operations	-8.7%	1,053	1,153	1,332	1,258	1,590
Share Based Compensation	0%	19.00	19.00	17.00	-	-
Cashflow From Investing	112.7%	133	-1,051	-1,395	-1,598	-609
Cashflow From Financing	-10.9%	-1,510	-1,361	-1,976	-2,058	-2,127
Dividend Payments	14.6%	1,390	1,213	1,881	2,045	2,547
Buy Backs	172.7%	30.00	11.00	11.00	18.00	132

Risks for AFG

What is the probability of a big loss on AFG?

36.9%

Probability that American Financial Group stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

21.5%

Probability that American Financial Group stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

19.2%

Probability that American Financial Group stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does AFG drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if American Financial Group was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for AFG

Cumulative Returns on AFG

16.6%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

15.8%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

11.0%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

40.8%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for AFG?

FIve years rolling returns for American Financial Group.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold AFG recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-06-01	MACQUARIE GROUP LTD	reduced	-16.4	-6,499,760	18,492,700	0.02%
2023-05-26	ProShare Advisors LLC	reduced	-1.52	-4,495,060	30,504,900	0.09%
2023-05-25	Brandywine Global Investment Management, LLC	added	131	15,924,800	31,139,700	0.13%
2023-05-23	BROOKFIELD Corp /ON/	sold off	-100	-6,877,320	-	-%
2023-05-22	PUTNAM INVESTMENTS LLC	reduced	-1.86	-396,932	2,623,920	-%
2023-05-22	EMC Capital Management	unchanged	-	-30,000	228,000	0.19%
2023-05-22	Raleigh Capital Management Inc.	added	24.88	2,975	30,503	0.01%
2023-05-22	AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC	added	2.24	-2,272,740	21,608,300	0.01%
2023-05-18	NEW YORK STATE COMMON RETIREMENT FUND	reduced	-3.3	-1,499,000	8,898,000	0.01%
2023-05-18	JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	added	37.72	4,376,000	24,361,000	-%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying AFG calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own AFG

No. of Funds

American Financial Group News

Schedule 13G FIlings of American Financial Group

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	9.31%	7,925,702	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	fmr llc	-	0	SC 13G/A
Jan 06, 2023	blackrock inc.	10.1%	8,600,100	SC 13G/A
May 12, 2022	lindner edyth b	3.9%	3,273,607	SC 13D/A
Feb 09, 2022	fmr llc	-	0	SC 13G
Feb 09, 2022	vanguard group inc	8.53%	7,231,239	SC 13G/A
Feb 01, 2022	blackrock inc.	7.4%	6,281,983	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2021	vanguard group inc	8.47%	7,354,136	SC 13G/A
Jan 29, 2021	blackrock inc.	7.4%	6,411,155	SC 13G/A
Mar 31, 2020	lindner carl h iii	6.1%	5,450,844	SC 13D/A

AFG Fair Value

Show Fair-Value

Recent SEC filings of American Financial Group

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Jun 02, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Jun 02, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Jun 02, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Jun 02, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Jun 02, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Jun 02, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Jun 02, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Jun 02, 2023	4	Insider Trading
May 22, 2023	4	Insider Trading
May 18, 2023	8-K	Current Report

Latest Insider Trading transactions for AFG

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-05-19	Peraino Vito C	gifted	-	-	-4,275	senior vp & executive counsel
2023-03-20	LINDNER CARL H III	gifted	-	-	-42.00	co-ceo & co-president
2023-03-13	JOSEPH GREGORY G	gifted	-	-	420	-
2023-03-13	JOSEPH GREGORY G	gifted	-	-	280	-
2023-03-13	JOSEPH GREGORY G	gifted	-	-	140	-
2023-03-02	Hertzman Brian S.	sold	-146,011	135	-1,080	sr. vp, cfo
2023-02-26	LINDNER CARL H III	sold (taxes)	-741,396	131	-5,644	co-ceo & co-president
2023-02-26	Peraino Vito C	sold (taxes)	-238,156	131	-1,813	senior vp & executive counsel
2023-02-26	LINDNER S CRAIG	sold (taxes)	-636,176	131	-4,843	co-ceo & co-president

About American Financial Group

Stephen C. Lindner

www.afginc.com

6600

American Financial Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, provides specialty property and casualty insurance products in the United States. It offers property and transportation insurance products, such as physical damage and liability coverage for buses and trucks, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products, and other commercial property and specialty transportation coverages; specialty casualty insurance, including primarily excess and surplus, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella and excess liability, and specialty coverage in targeted markets, as well as customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses and workers' compensation insurance; and specialty financial insurance products comprising risk management insurance programs for lending and leasing institutions, fidelity and surety products, and trade credit insurance. The company sells its property and casualty insurance products through independent insurance agents and brokers. American Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.

AFG Income Statement

2023-03-31

Consolidated Statement of Earnings (Unaudited) - USD ($) shares in Millions, $ in Millions	3 Months Ended
	Mar. 31, 2023	Mar. 31, 2022
Revenues:
Property and casualty insurance net earned premiums	$ 1,437	$ 1,302
Net investment income	217	230
Realized gains (losses) on:
Realized gains (losses) on securities	(46)	(15)
Income of managed investment entities:
Investment income	104	46
Gain (loss) on change in fair value of assets/liabilities	(4)	(5)
Other income	32	30
Total revenues	1,740	1,588
Property and casualty insurance:
Losses and loss adjustment expenses	820	693
Commissions and other underwriting expenses	473	414
Interest charges on borrowed money	19	23
Expenses of managed investment entities	95	39
Other expenses	69	58
Total costs and expenses	1,476	1,227
Earnings before income taxes	264	361
Provision for income taxes	52	71
Net Earnings	$ 212	$ 290
Earnings per Common Share:
Basic (USD per share)	$ 2.49	$ 3.41
Diluted (USD per share)	$ 2.49	$ 3.40
Average number of Common Shares:
Basic (shares)	85.2	85.0
Diluted (shares)	85.4	85.2

AFG Balance Sheet

2023-03-31

Consolidated Balance Sheet (Unaudited) - USD ($) $ in Millions	Mar. 31, 2023	Dec. 31, 2022
Assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 857	$ 872
Investments:
Fixed maturities, available for sale at fair value (amortized cost — $10,583 and $10,736; allowance for expected credit losses of $16 and $11)	10,044	10,095
Fixed maturities, trading at fair value	36	32
Equity securities, at fair value	1,008	1,010
Investments accounted for using the equity method	1,733	1,700
Mortgage loans	646	676
Real estate and other investments	127	127
Total cash and investments	14,451	14,512
Recoverables from reinsurers	3,838	3,977
Prepaid reinsurance premiums	1,021	917
Agents’ balances and premiums receivable	1,459	1,339
Deferred policy acquisition costs	285	288
Other receivables	637	886
Other assets	1,153	1,219
Goodwill	246	246
Total assets	28,481	28,831
Liabilities and Equity:
Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses	11,761	11,974
Unearned premiums	3,435	3,246
Payable to reinsurers	911	1,035
Long-term debt	1,478	1,496
Other liabilities	1,697	1,696
Total liabilities	24,540	24,779
Shareholders’ equity:
Common Stock, no par value — 200,000,000 shares authorized — 85,171,658 and 85,204,006 shares outstanding	85	85
Capital surplus	1,374	1,368
Retained earnings	2,933	3,142
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss), net of tax	(451)	(543)
Total shareholders’ equity	3,941	4,052
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity	28,481	28,831
Variable interest entity, primary beneficiary
Investments:
Total assets	5,391	5,447
Liabilities and Equity:
Total liabilities	$ 5,258	$ 5,332