Affirm Holdings, Inc. Stock Research

Market Summary

USD10.33+0.34

Delayed

3.40%

AFRM Alerts

1 major insider sales recently.
Big fall in earnings (Y/Y)
Losses in recent quarter

AFRM Stock Price

AFRM RSI Chart

AFRM Valuation

Market Cap

3.0B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

-3.72

Price/Sales (Trailing)

2.05

EV/EBITDA

-2.43

Price/Free Cashflow

-17.05

AFRM Price/Sales (Trailing)

AFRM Profitability

EBT Margin

-56.37%

Return on Equity

-32.46%

Return on Assets

-10.44%

Free Cashflow Yield

-5.87%

AFRM Fundamentals

AFRM Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

1.5B

Revenue Y/Y

10.68%

Revenue Q/Q

10.49%

AFRM Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

-814.8M

Earnings Y/Y

-101.86%

Earnings Q/Q

-28.32%

Price Action

52 Week Range

8.6251.49

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

3.7%

Last 30 days

-23.2%

Last 90 days

12.4%

Trailing 12 Months

-76.9%

AFRM Financial Health

AFRM Investor Care

Shares Dilution (1Y)

4.32%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

-2.8

Financials for Affirm Holdings

Income Statement (Last 12 Months)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	2.7%	1,480,078,000	1,441,531,000	1,349,292,000	1,246,938,000	1,122,841,000
S&GA Expenses	7.1%	677,114,000	632,256,000	532,343,000	425,962,000	327,932,000
EBITDA	-24.1%	-656,221,000	-528,766,000	-602,415,000	-566,577,000	-768,634,000
EBITDA Margin	-20.9%	-0.44	-0.37	-0.45	-0.45	-0.68
Earnings Before Taxes	-24.6%	-834,382,000	-669,836,000	-724,831,000	-646,183,000	-878,892,000
EBT Margin	-21.3%	-0.56	-0.46	-0.54	-0.54	-0.77
Interest Expenses	33.4%	104,058,000	78,007,000	69,694,000	65,900,000	64,741,000
Net Income	-25.0%	-814,773,000	-652,071,000	-707,417,000	-644,441,000	-876,821,000
Net Income Margin	-21.7%	-0.55	-0.45	-0.52	-0.52	-0.75
Free Cahsflow	69.2%	-177,955,000	-577,223,000	-248,484,000	-190,090,000	-269,623,000

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	8.9%	7,805	7,165	6,974	7,032	6,952
Cash Equivalents	-5.9%	1,440	1,530	1,255	2,262	2,567
Net PPE	19.4%	249	208	171	142	114
Goodwill	0.5%	528	525	540	547	541
Liabilities	15.1%	5,295	4,602	4,356	4,456	4,484
Shareholder's Equity	-2.1%	2,510	2,563	2,618	2,576	2,468
Retained Earnings	-17.4%	-2,179	-1,857	-1,605	-1,419	-1,364
Additional Paid-In Capital	5.9%	4,716	4,455	4,231	3,988	3,829
Accumulated Depreciation	20.8%	73.00	60.00	-	-	-
Shares Outstanding	0.9%	294	291	286	282	-
Float	-	20,900	-	-	-	-

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	86.5%	-64.42	-476	-162	-123	-218
Share Based Compensation	8.0%	451	418	391	380	462
Cashflow From Investing	-39.7%	-1,766	-1,264	-2,011	-901	-934
Cashflow From Financing	-55.0%	896	1,993	2,037	1,890	3,323
Buy Backs	0%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Risks for AFRM

What is the probability of a big loss on AFRM?

94.8%

Probability that Affirm Holdings stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

93.9%

Probability that Affirm Holdings stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

91.3%

Probability that Affirm Holdings stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does AFRM drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Affirm Holdings was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for AFRM

Cumulative Returns on AFRM

Which funds bought or sold AFRM recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-15	B. Riley Wealth Advisors, Inc.	reduced	-4.07	-113,588	110,412	-%
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	reduced	-0.05	-202,905	216,095	-%
2023-03-10	BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	reduced	-1.42	-189,250,000	195,519,000	0.20%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	reduced	-58.74	-362,000	97,000	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	added	23.04	-157,070	271,930	-%
2023-02-27	Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P.	added	84.75	-76,406	1,538,590	-%
2023-02-27	REBALANCE, LLC	new	-	9,670	9,670	-%
2023-02-27	Cravens & Co Advisors, LLC	new	-	186,998	186,998	0.17%
2023-02-24	NATIXIS	reduced	-0.34	-276,412	272,588	-%
2023-02-24	SRS Capital Advisors, Inc.	sold off	-100	-91,000	-	-%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying AFRM calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own AFRM

No. of Funds

Affirm Holdings News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Affirm Holdings

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 13, 2023	capital research global investors	11.2%	25,657,975	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	8.17%	18,794,360	SC 13G/A
Feb 08, 2023	morgan stanley	7.3%	16,743,222	SC 13G
Jan 20, 2023	baillie gifford & co	9.87%	22,703,709	SC 13G/A
May 03, 2022	gic private ltd	11.64%	27,329,314	SC 13G/A
Mar 10, 2022	capital research global investors	10.6%	23,800,270	SC 13G/A
Feb 11, 2022	gic private ltd	10.42%	22,829,800	SC 13G
Feb 11, 2022	capital research global investors	9.3%	19,364,986	SC 13G
Feb 09, 2022	vanguard group inc	7.02%	14,615,334	SC 13G

AFRM Fair Value

Affirm Holdings fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Affirm Holdings for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	2.25 -78.22%	3.10 -69.99%	5.69 -44.92%	10.41 0.77%	19.86 92.26%
Current Inflation	2.20 -78.70%	2.96 -71.35%	5.22 -49.47%	9.30 -9.97%	17.41 68.54%
Very High Inflation	2.12 -79.48%	2.78 -73.09%	4.66 -54.89%	7.98 -22.75%	14.54 40.76%

Historical Affirm Holdings Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Affirm Holdings

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 07, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 15, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Feb 13, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 10, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 09, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report

Latest Insider Trading transactions for AFRM

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-01	Adkins Katherine	acquired	-	-	6,783	chief legal officer
2023-03-01	Linford Michael	acquired	-	-	2,336	chief financial officer
2023-03-01	Linford Michael	sold (taxes)	-8,473	12.61	-672	chief financial officer
2023-03-01	Jiyane Siphelele	sold (taxes)	-8,549	12.61	-678	vice president, controller
2023-03-01	Michalek Libor	acquired	-	-	2,336	president
2023-03-01	Jiyane Siphelele	acquired	-	-	2,636	vice president, controller
2023-03-01	Rabois Keith	sold	-220,673	12.7652	-17,287	-
2023-03-01	Adkins Katherine	sold (taxes)	-25,900	12.61	-2,054	chief legal officer
2023-03-01	Michalek Libor	sold (taxes)	-10,176	12.61	-807	president
2023-02-01	Jiyane Siphelele	acquired	-	-	2,637	vice president, controller

About Affirm Holdings

Max R. Levchin

www.affirm.com

1640

Affirm Holdings, Inc. operates a platform for digital and mobile-first commerce in the United States and Canada. The company's platform includes point-of-sale payment solution for consumers, merchant commerce solutions, and a consumer-focused app. Its payments network and partnership with an originating bank, enables consumers to pay for a purchase over time with terms ranging from one to forty-eight months. As of June 30, 2021, the company had approximately 29,000 merchants integrated on its platform covering small businesses, large enterprises, direct-to-consumer brands, brick-and-mortar stores, and companies. Its merchants represent a range of industries, including sporting goods and outdoors, furniture and homewares, travel, apparel, accessories, consumer electronics, and jewelry. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

AFRM Income Statement

2022-09-30

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE LOSS - USD ($) $ in Thousands	3 Months Ended
	Sep. 30, 2022	Sep. 30, 2021
Revenue
Revenue	$ 139,857	$ 111,639
Interest income	136,802	117,302
Gain on sales of loans	63,595	30,979
Servicing income	21,370	9,465
Total Revenue, net	361,624	269,385
Operating Expenses
Loss on loan purchase commitment	35,610	51,678
Provision for credit losses	64,250	63,647
Funding costs	25,066	16,753
Processing and servicing	54,359	25,201
Technology and data analytics	144,961	78,013
Sales and marketing	163,873	63,960
General and administrative	160,972	136,204
Total Operating Expenses	649,091	435,456
Operating Loss	(287,467)	(166,071)
Other (expense) income, net	36,018	(140,373)
Loss Before Income Taxes	(251,449)	(306,444)
Income tax expense (benefit)	(180)	171
Net Loss	(251,269)	(306,615)
Other Comprehensive Loss
Foreign currency translation adjustments	(21,546)	(3,802)
Unrealized loss on securities available for sale, net	(5,528)	(279)
Net Other Comprehensive Loss	(27,074)	(4,081)
Comprehensive Loss	$ (278,343)	$ (310,696)
Net loss per share attributable to common stockholders for Class A and Class B
Basic (in USD per share)	$ (0.86)	$ (1.13)
Diluted (in USD per share)	$ (0.86)	$ (1.13)
Net loss per share:
Basic (in shares)	290,929,270	271,677,516
Diluted (in shares)	290,929,270	271,677,516
Merchant network revenue
Revenue
Revenue	$ 113,149	$ 92,244
Virtual card network revenue
Revenue
Revenue	$ 26,708	$ 19,395

AFRM Balance Sheet

2022-09-30

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Sep. 30, 2022	Jun. 30, 2022
Assets
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 1,530,132	$ 1,255,171
Restricted cash	383,406	295,636
Securities available for sale at fair value	1,237,291	1,595,373
Loans held for sale	7,112	2,670
Loans held for investment	2,681,637	2,503,561
Allowance for credit losses	(153,025)	(155,392)
Loans held for investment, net	2,528,612	2,348,169
Accounts receivable, net	147,757	142,052
Property, equipment and software, net	208,460	171,482
Goodwill	525,000	539,534
Intangible assets	71,037	78,942
Commercial agreement assets	241,639	263,196
Other assets	284,614	281,567
Total Assets	7,165,060	6,973,792
Liabilities:
Accounts payable	34,534	33,072
Payable to third-party loan owners	90,811	71,383
Accrued interest payable	5,292	6,659
Accrued expenses and other liabilities	249,812	237,598
Convertible senior notes, net	1,707,724	1,706,668
Notes issued by securitization trusts	1,720,812	1,627,580
Funding debt	792,637	672,577
Total liabilities	4,601,622	4,355,537
Commitments and contingencies
Stockholders’ equity:
Additional paid in capital	4,454,829	4,231,303
Accumulated deficit	(1,857,171)	(1,605,902)
Accumulated other comprehensive loss	(34,223)	(7,149)
Total stockholders’ equity	2,563,438	2,618,255
Total Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity	7,165,060	6,973,792
Class A common stock
Stockholders’ equity:
Common stock	2	2
Class B common stock
Stockholders’ equity:
Common stock	$ 1	$ 1