agilon health, inc. Stock Research

Market Summary

USD26.08+2.17

Delayed

9.08%

AGL Alerts

2 major insider sales recently.
Big jump in Revenue (Y/Y)
Losses in recent quarter

AGL Stock Price

AGL RSI Chart

AGL Valuation

Market Cap

10.8B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

-100.94

Price/Sales (Trailing)

3.97

EV/EBITDA

-117.26

Price/Free Cashflow

-73.55

AGL Price/Sales (Trailing)

AGL Profitability

EBT Margin

-3.90%

Return on Equity

-10.24%

Return on Assets

-6.28%

Free Cashflow Yield

-1.36%

AGL Fundamentals

AGL Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

2.7B

Revenue Y/Y

49.02%

Revenue Q/Q

-0.73%

AGL Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

-106.6M

Earnings Y/Y

0.45%

Earnings Q/Q

-84.12%

Price Action

52 Week Range

14.8228.36

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-2.2%

Last 30 days

4.6%

Last 90 days

39.0%

Trailing 12 Months

21.1%

AGL Financial Health

Current Ratio

2.71

Debt/Equity

0.04

Debt/Cashflow

-3.11

AGL Investor Care

Shares Dilution (1Y)

3.07%

Financials for agilon health

Income Statement (Last 12 Months)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	9.1%	2,708,211,000	2,481,323,000	2,245,078,000	2,073,900,000	1,833,559,000
Operating Expenses	9.6%	2,828,642,000	2,580,509,000	2,350,347,000	2,456,480,000	2,227,511,000
S&GA Expenses	10.8%	218,945,000	197,578,000	192,241,000	457,878,000	455,821,000
EBITDA	2.7%	-87,392,000	-89,852,000	-96,313,000	-371,657,000	-
EBITDA Margin	10.9%	-0.03	-0.04	-0.04	-0.18	-
Earnings Before Taxes	1.2%	-105,689,000	-106,994,000	-113,787,000	-390,223,000	-404,598,000
EBT Margin	9.5%	-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.19	-
Interest Expenses	23.8%	4,525,000	3,656,000	3,523,000	4,076,000	6,146,000
Net Income	0.2%	-106,553,000	-106,808,000	-111,983,000	-390,179,000	-406,487,000
Net Income Margin	8.6%	-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.19	-
Free Cahsflow	-0.8%	-146,234,000	-145,083,000	-165,958,000	-140,999,000	-

Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	-9.2%	1,697	1,870	1,841	1,855	1,586
Current Assets	-11.2%	1,451	1,634	1,601	1,628	1,367
Cash Equivalents	-7.9%	508	551	669	1,022	1,040
Net PPE	11.8%	20.00	18.00	16.00	13.00	9.00
Goodwill	0%	42.00	42.00	42.00	42.00	42.00
Liabilities	-16.3%	657	785	737	744	495
Current Liabilities	-18.7%	535	658	605	610	357
Long Term Debt	-	49.00	-	-	-	-
LT Debt, Current	0%	5.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	5.00
LT Debt, Non Current	-3.1%	38.00	40.00	41.00	42.00	43.00
Shareholder's Equity	-4.2%	1,041	1,086	1,103	1,111	1,092
Retained Earnings	-5.6%	-1,064	-1,007	-977	-956	-957
Additional Paid-In Capital	0.6%	2,107	2,095	2,076	2,064	2,046
Accumulated Depreciation	-12.4%	8.00	9.00	8.00	-	-
Shares Outstanding	0.2%	412	412	408	406	400
Minority Interest	-15.7%	-0.61	-0.53	-0.46	-0.37	-0.30

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	-0.8%	-130	-129	-151	-130	-148
Share Based Compensation	24.2%	28.00	23.00	27.00	295	292
Cashflow From Investing	-1.2%	-444	-439	-319	-90.30	-90.51
Cashflow From Financing	-24.9%	28.00	37.00	29.00	1,138	1,154
Buy Backs	-	0.00	-	-	-	-

Risks for AGL

What is the probability of a big loss on AGL?

87.1%

Probability that agilon health stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

78.2%

Probability that agilon health stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

75.3%

Probability that agilon health stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does AGL drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if agilon health was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for AGL

Cumulative Returns on AGL

Which funds bought or sold AGL recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	reduced	-0.05	-173,110	383,890	-%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	reduced	-97.19	-18,000	-	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	added	-	-544,663	1,207,340	-%
2023-02-27	Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P.	reduced	-99.39	-727,933	3,067	-%
2023-02-24	NATIXIS	sold off	-100	-812,000	-	-%
2023-02-21	NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO	new	-	32.00	32.00	-%
2023-02-21	MACQUARIE GROUP LTD	sold off	-100	-144,000	-	-%
2023-02-15	ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P.	reduced	-32.17	-1,347,150	1,182,850	-%
2023-02-15	JANE STREET GROUP, LLC	new	-	2,023,880	2,023,880	-%
2023-02-15	PUBLIC EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF OHIO	added	2.14	-658,000	1,564,000	0.01%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying AGL calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own AGL

No. of Funds

agilon health News

Schedule 13G FIlings of agilon health

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Mar 10, 2023	capital world investors	10.3%	42,425,420	SC 13G/A
Feb 13, 2023	capital world investors	9.2%	37,918,473	SC 13G/A
Feb 08, 2023	morgan stanley	9.1%	37,574,546	SC 13G/A
Feb 06, 2023	wellington management group llp	5.52%	22,745,297	SC 13G
Jan 10, 2023	fmr llc	-	0	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2022	cd&r vector holdings, l.p.	52.3%	205,948,808	SC 13G
Feb 11, 2022	capital world investors	9.1%	35,865,953	SC 13G
Feb 09, 2022	fmr llc	-	0	SC 13G

AGL Fair Value

agilon health fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for agilon health for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	1.75 -93.29%	3.10 -88.11%	7.55 -71.05%	15.49 -40.61%	31.29 19.98%
Current Inflation	1.65 -93.67%	2.86 -89.03%	6.74 -74.16%	13.57 -47.97%	27.08 3.83%
Very High Inflation	1.53 -94.13%	2.57 -90.15%	5.79 -77.80%	11.33 -56.56%	22.21 -14.84%

Historical agilon health Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of agilon health

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 10, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Mar 09, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 01, 2023	10-K	Annual Report
Mar 01, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Feb 22, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Feb 22, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 22, 2023	3	Insider Trading
Feb 16, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 16, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 13, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report

Latest Insider Trading transactions for AGL

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-08	Kornitzer Benjamin	acquired	72,765	8.99	8,094	chief med. & quality officer
2023-03-08	Kornitzer Benjamin	sold	-197,821	24.4404	-8,094	chief med. & quality officer
2023-03-07	Kornitzer Benjamin	sold	-197,197	24.3634	-8,094	chief med. & quality officer
2023-03-07	Kornitzer Benjamin	acquired	72,765	8.99	8,094	chief med. & quality officer
2023-02-17	MCKENZIE DIANA	acquired	-	-	1,078	-
2023-02-15	Shaker Benjamin	acquired	28,555	1.00	28,555	chief markets officer
2023-02-15	Shaker Benjamin	sold	-667,342	23.3704	-28,555	chief markets officer
2023-02-15	Kornitzer Benjamin	acquired	72,765	8.99	8,094	chief med. & quality officer
2023-02-15	Kornitzer Benjamin	sold	-186,028	22.9834	-8,094	chief med. & quality officer
2023-02-14	Kornitzer Benjamin	sold	-594,877	22.9851	-25,881	chief med. & quality officer

About agilon health

Steven J. Sell

www.agilonhealth.com

650

agilon health, inc. offers healthcare services for seniors through primary care physicians in the communities of the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it served approximately 238,000 senior members, which included 186,300 medicare advantage members and 51,700 medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. The company was formerly known as Agilon Health Topco, Inc. and changed its name to agilon health, inc. in March 2021. agilon health, inc. was founded in 2016 and is based in Austin, Texas.

AGL Income Statement

2022-12-31

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS - USD ($) shares in Thousands, $ in Thousands	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
Revenues:
Total revenues	$ 2,708,211	$ 1,833,559	$ 1,218,333
Expenses:
Medical services expense	2,399,798	1,647,659	1,021,877
Other medical expenses	196,127	109,487	102,306
General and administrative	218,945	455,821	137,292
Depreciation and amortization	13,772	14,544	13,531
Total expenses	2,828,642	2,227,511	1,275,006
Income (loss) from operations	(120,431)	(393,952)	(56,673)
Other income (expense):
Other income (expense), net	24,725	(4,500)	2,465
Gain (loss) on lease terminations	(5,458)	0	0
Interest expense	(4,525)	(6,146)	(8,135)
Income (loss) before income taxes	(105,689)	(404,598)	(62,343)
Income tax benefit (expense)	(1,640)	(886)	(865)
Income (loss) from continuing operations	(107,329)	(405,484)	(63,208)
Discontinued operations:
Income (loss) before impairments, gain (loss) on sales and income taxes	491	(3,463)	(20,049)
Gain (loss) on sales of assets, net	0	473	20,401
Income tax benefit (expense)	(26)	1,687	2,804
Total discontinued operations	465	(1,303)	3,156
Net income (loss)	(106,864)	(406,787)	(60,052)
Noncontrolling interests' share in (earnings) loss	311	300	0
Net income (loss) attributable to common shares	$ (106,553)	$ (406,487)	$ (60,052)
Net income (loss) per common share, basic and diluted
Net income (loss) per common share from continuing operations basic and diluted	$ (0.26)	$ (1.09)	$ (0.20)
Discontinued Operation, Income (Loss) from Discontinued Operation, Net of Tax, Per Basic Share	0	0	0.01
Income (Loss) from Continuing Operations, Per Diluted Share	(0.26)	(1.09)	(0.20)
Discontinued Operation, Income (Loss) from Discontinued Operation, Net of Tax, Per Diluted Share	$ 0	$ 0	$ 0.01
Weighted Average Number of Shares Outstanding, Basic	408,154	372,931	323,462
Weighted Average Number of Shares Outstanding, Diluted	408,154	372,931	323,462
Medical Services Revenue
Revenues:
Total revenues	$ 2,704,396	$ 1,829,735	$ 1,214,270
Other Operating Revenue
Revenues:
Total revenues	$ 3,815	$ 3,824	$ 4,063

AGL Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 497,070	$ 1,040,039
Restricted cash and equivalents	10,610	14,781
Marketable securities	411,901	0
Receivables, net	497,574	293,407
Prepaid expenses and other current assets, net	34,119	18,968
Total current assets	1,451,274	1,367,195
Property and equipment, net	20,050	9,161
Intangible assets, net	67,680	55,398
Goodwill	41,540	41,540
Other assets, net	116,924	112,958
Total assets	1,697,468	1,586,252
Current liabilities:
Medical claims and related payables	346,727	239,014
Accounts payable and accrued expenses	183,364	112,946
Current portion of long-term debt	5,000	5,000
Total current liabilities	535,091	356,960
Long-term debt, net of current portion	38,482	43,401
Other liabilities	83,286	94,295
Total liabilities	656,859	494,656
Commitments and contingencies
Stockholders' equity (deficit):
Common stock, $0.01 par value: 2,000,000 shares authorized; 412,385 and 400,095 shares issued and outstanding, respectively	4,124	4,001
Additional paid-in capital	2,106,886	2,045,572
Accumulated deficit	(1,064,230)	(957,677)
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)	(5,560)	0
Total agilon health, inc. stockholders' equity (deficit)	1,041,220	1,091,896
Noncontrolling interests	(611)	(300)
Total stockholders’ equity (deficit)	1,040,609	1,091,596
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity (deficit)	$ 1,697,468	$ 1,586,252