Allegiant Travel Co Stock Research

Market Summary

USD86.21+1.95

Delayed

2.31%

ALGT Stock Price

ALGT RSI Chart

ALGT Valuation

Market Cap

1.6B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

-39.54

Price/Sales (Trailing)

0.71

EV/EBITDA

12.87

Price/Free Cashflow

-142.86

ALGT Price/Sales (Trailing)

ALGT Profitability

EBT Margin

-2.09%

Return on Equity

-3.3%

Return on Assets

-0.89%

Free Cashflow Yield

-0.7%

ALGT Fundamentals

ALGT Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

2.2B

Revenue Y/Y

21.95%

Revenue Q/Q

-11.04%

ALGT Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

-39.3M

Earnings Y/Y

-218.35%

Earnings Q/Q

-1.2K%

Price Action

52 Week Range

62.94186.86

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

0.8%

Last 30 days

35.6%

Last 90 days

18.1%

Trailing 12 Months

-49.9%

ALGT Financial Health

Current Ratio

1.32

Debt/Equity

1.55

Debt/Cashflow

0.21

ALGT Investor Care

Shares Dilution (1Y)

1.40%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

-2.28

Peers (Alternatives to Allegiant Travel)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
FDX	49.6B	94.1B	10.12%	-20.57%	14.88	0.53	5.07%	-32.20%
DAL	24.5B	46.6B	21.07%	1.02%	298.7	0.53	91.03%	220.59%
LUV	21.5B	22.7B	12.58%	-15.37%	17.28	0.95	77.96%	374.81%
UAL	15.9B	-	30.68%	19.06%	-21.19	0.35	105.23%	76.61%
AAL	10.7B	24.7B	33.36%	4.12%	-6.64	0.45	56.54%	50.37%
MID-CAP
ALK	6.5B	9.1B	23.54%	-3.00%	119.83	0.71	78.29%	315.38%
AAWW	2.9B	4.4B	0.69%	33.94%	7.11	0.65	16.29%	-18.77%
JBLU	2.6B	8.6B	28.76%	-42.58%	-5.01	0.3	76.30%	-20.89%
SAVE	2.4B	4.7B	2.60%	-4.73%	-6.34	0.5	70.14%	31.71%
ATSG	2.1B	2.0B	5.97%	6.50%	10.28	1.03	20.80%	5.98%
SMALL-CAP
ALGT	1.6B	2.2B	35.59%	-49.87%	-39.54	0.71	50.05%	-134.97%
SKYW	1.0B	3.1B	36.25%	-45.94%	8.24	0.33	22.76%	103.49%
HA	612.8M	-	23.27%	-25.82%	-2.17	0.34	92.16%	-31.54%
MESA	109.1M	531.0M	154.24%	-35.76%	-0.6	0.21	5.44%	-1201.27%
AIRT	69.0M	208.4M	-1.06%	6.23%	-37.28	0.33	14.05%	-125.44%

Financials for Allegiant Travel

Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4	2021Q3
Revenue	4.8%	2,187	2,086	1,929	1,708	1,458
Operating Expenses	10.1%	2,151	1,953	1,683	1,445	1,251
S&GA Expenses	4.0%	97	93	83	73	59
EBITDA	-25.4%	245	328	431	-	-
EBITDA Margin	-28.8%	0.11*	0.16*	0.22*	-	-
Earnings Before Taxes	-175.4%	-45.75	61	177	197	142
EBT Margin	-172.0%	-0.02*	0.03*	0.09*	-	-
Interest Expenses	24.4%	98	79	71	68	54
Net Income	-184.6%	-39.28	46	137	152	112
Net Income Margin	-180.7%	-0.02*	0.02*	0.07*	-	-
Free Cahsflow	-131.2%	-10.87	35	289	-	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)

Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4	2021Q3
Assets	0%	4,411	4,411	4,438	3,991	3,767
Current Assets	-14.6%	1,198	1,402	1,410	1,338	1,321
Cash Equivalents	-39.3%	241	396	403	363	236
Net PPE	7.2%	2,739	2,555	2,427	2,260	2,148
Liabilities	0.5%	3,222	3,206	3,009	2,768	2,576
Current Liabilities	-0.9%	910	918	888	663	693
Long Term Debt	2.0%	1,840	1,804	1,635	1,612	1,435
Shareholder's Equity	-3.5%	1,189	1,232	1,222	1,224	1,191
Retained Earnings	-4.0%	1,117	1,164	1,160	1,167	1,157
Additional Paid-In Capital	0.7%	704	699	695	692	676
Shares Outstanding	0.2%	18	18	18	18	18

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4	2021Q3
Cashflow From Operations	7.0%	386	361	546	538	331
Share Based Compensation	-	16	-	-	-	-
Cashflow From Investing	12.7%	-415.57	-476.16	-738.71	-593.28	-669.88
Cashflow From Financing	-21.3%	64	82	295	285	289
Dividend Payments	NaN%	0	0	-	-	-
Buy Backs	NaN%	0	0	-	-	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)

Risks for ALGT

What is the probability of a big loss on ALGT?

88.1%

Probability that Allegiant Travel stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

65%

Probability that Allegiant Travel stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

40%

Probability that Allegiant Travel stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does ALGT drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Allegiant Travel was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for ALGT

Cumulative Returns on ALGT

2.6%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

-7.4%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

-10.8%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

-20.2%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for ALGT?

FIve years rolling returns for Allegiant Travel.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold ALGT recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-01-26	Inspire Investing, LLC	added	23.5	30,537	236,537	0.03%
2023-01-26	Capital Investment Services of America, Inc.	reduced	-26.37	-2,030,300	4,433,700	0.59%
2023-01-26	COMERICA BANK	reduced	-21.69	-50,000	746,000	0.01%
2023-01-26	OREGON PUBLIC EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT FUND	added	1.27	-21,588	353,412	-%
2023-01-26	State of Tennessee, Treasury Department	added	19.87	-231,000	788,000	-%
2023-01-26	STRS OHIO	unchanged	-	-3,000	33,000	-%
2023-01-26	Riverview Trust Co	new	-	12,000	12,000	0.01%
2023-01-25	Lindbrook Capital, LLC	added	806.25	8,859	9,859	-%
2023-01-25	Oldfield Partners LLP	added	9.04	40,000	2,543,000	0.45%
2023-01-25	Versant Capital Management, Inc	reduced	-82.24	-19,125	3,875	-%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying ALGT calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own ALGT

No. of Funds

Allegiant Travel News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Allegiant Travel

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Jan 26, 2023	blackrock inc.	14.7%	2,701,449	SC 13G/A
Jan 20, 2023	blackrock inc.	14.7%	2,701,449	SC 13G
Feb 17, 2022	allegiant travel co	206%	2,391,741	SC 13D/A
Feb 09, 2022	vanguard group inc	8.97%	1,622,437	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2022	wasatch advisors inc	-	0	SC 13G/A
Jan 27, 2022	blackrock inc.	13.0%	2,347,110	SC 13G/A
Jan 26, 2022	blackrock inc.	13.0%	2,347,110	SC 13G/A
Feb 16, 2021	par investment partners lp	4.9%	806,500	SC 13G/A
Feb 12, 2021	allegiant travel co	15.14%	2,484,362	SC 13D/A
Feb 11, 2021	wasatch advisors inc	-	0	SC 13G/A

ALGT Fair Value

Allegiant Travel fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Allegiant Travel for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	42.84 -50.31%	55.14 -36.04%	75.49 -12.43%	131.37 52.38%	176.80 105.08%
Current Inflation	40.23 -53.33%	50.89 -40.97%	68.36 -20.71%	117.15 35.89%	156.19 81.17%
Very High Inflation	37.01 -57.07%	45.75 -46.93%	59.90 -30.52%	100.45 16.52%	132.20 53.35%

Fair Value

Very Pessimistic

Pessimistic

Base Case

Optimistic

Very Optimistic

Very Low Inflation

42.84

-50.31%

55.14

-36.04%

75.49

-12.43%

131.37

52.38%

176.80

105.08%

Current Inflation

40.23

-53.33%

50.89

-40.97%

68.36

-20.71%

117.15

35.89%

156.19

81.17%

Very High Inflation

37.01

-57.07%

45.75

-46.93%

59.90

-30.52%

100.45

16.52%

132.20

53.35%

Historical Allegiant Travel Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Allegiant Travel

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Jan 26, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Jan 20, 2023	SC 13G	Major Ownership Report
Jan 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Dec 16, 2022	UPLOAD	UPLOAD
Dec 14, 2022	CORRESP	CORRESP
Dec 07, 2022	UPLOAD	UPLOAD
Nov 03, 2022	10-Q	Quarterly Report
Nov 02, 2022	8-K	Current Report
Oct 27, 2022	4	Insider Trading
Oct 27, 2022	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for ALGT

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-01-03	DeAngelo Scott Wayne	sold	-86,712.5	69.37	-1,250	evp and cmo
2022-10-25	Brewer Montie	acquired	-	-	10,000	-
2022-10-25	Pollard Charles W.	acquired	-	-	10,000	-
2022-10-25	Morgan Sandra Douglass	acquired	-	-	10,000	-
2022-10-25	ELLMER GARY	acquired	-	-	10,000	-
2022-10-25	Harrison M Ponder	acquired	-	-	10,000	-
2022-10-25	Marvin Linda A	acquired	-	-	10,000	-
2022-10-20	Aretos Rebecca	acquired	-	-	3,611	principal accounting officer
2022-10-03	DeAngelo Scott Wayne	sold	-90,775	72.62	-1,250	evp and cmo
2022-09-07	DeAngelo Scott Wayne	sold	-36,562.4	96.726	-378	evp and cmo

About Allegiant Travel

Maurice J. Gallagher

www.allegiantair.com

4460

Allegiant Travel Company, a leisure travel company, provides travel services and products to residents of under-served cities in the United States. The company offers scheduled air transportation on limited-frequency, nonstop flights between under-served cities and leisure destinations. As of February 14, 2022, it operated a fleet of 110 Airbus A320 series aircraft. The company also provides air-related services and products in conjunction with air transportation, including baggage fees, advance seat assignments, travel protection products, priority boarding, a customer convenience fee, food and beverage purchases on board, and other air-related services, as well as use of its call center for purchases. In addition, it offers third party travel products, such as hotel rooms and ground transportation, such as rental cars and hotel shuttle products; and air transportation services through fixed fee agreements and charter service on a year-round and ad-hoc basis. Further, the company operates a golf course. Allegiant Travel Company was founded in 1997 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.

ALGT Income Statement

2022-09-30

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOME (unaudited) - USD ($) shares in Thousands, $ in Thousands	3 Months Ended		9 Months Ended
	Sep. 30, 2022	Sep. 30, 2021	Sep. 30, 2022	Sep. 30, 2021
OPERATING REVENUES:
Passenger	$ 516,476	$ 423,796	$ 1,573,041	$ 1,124,237
Third party products	27,132	24,541	77,399	61,164
Fixed fee contracts	15,881	11,117	38,186	23,943
Other	836	15	1,654	1,682
Total operating revenues	560,325	459,469	1,690,280	1,211,026
OPERATING EXPENSES:
Aircraft fuel	208,175	118,370	629,600	310,674
Salaries and benefits	137,336	125,799	411,027	365,655
Station operations	66,302	70,943	198,954	171,246
Depreciation and amortization	50,092	46,399	145,618	134,095
Maintenance and repairs	32,177	30,451	91,120	76,419
Sales and marketing	25,815	22,047	75,462	51,288
Aircraft lease rental	5,905	5,670	17,489	15,507
Other	30,292	22,379	83,137	55,655
Payroll Support Programs grant recognition	0	(49,210)	0	(202,181)
Special charges	35,142	332	35,426	2,924
Total operating expenses	591,236	393,180	1,687,833	981,282
OPERATING INCOME (LOSS)	(30,911)	66,289	2,447	229,744
OTHER (INCOME) EXPENSES:
Interest expense	34,242	16,595	78,530	50,174
Capitalized interest	(4,296)	(401)	(7,594)	(401)
Interest income	(4,918)	(375)	(7,909)	(1,338)
Other, net	223	239	318	(164)
Total other expenses	25,251	16,058	63,345	48,271
INCOME (LOSS) BEFORE INCOME TAXES	(56,162)	50,231	(60,898)	181,473
INCOME TAX PROVISION (BENEFIT)	(9,703)	10,977	(10,916)	40,323
NET INCOME (LOSS)	$ (46,459)	$ 39,254	$ (49,982)	$ 141,150
Earnings (loss) per share to common shareholders:
Basic (in dollars per share)	$ (2.58)	$ 2.18	$ (2.78)	$ 8.18
Diluted (in dollars per share)	$ (2.58)	$ 2.18	$ (2.78)	$ 8.18
Shares used for computation:
Basic (in shares)	18,014	17,766	17,985	17,005
Diluted (in shares)	18,014	17,767	17,985	17,015
Cash dividends declared per share:	$ 0	$ 0	$ 0	$ 0

ALGT Balance Sheet

2022-09-30

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS (unaudited) - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Sep. 30, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
CURRENT ASSETS
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 240,528	$ 363,378
Restricted cash	30,671	37,323
Short-term investments	761,362	819,478
Accounts receivable	79,150	62,659
Expendable parts, supplies and fuel, net	39,070	27,500
Prepaid expenses and other current assets	46,772	28,073
TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS	1,197,553	1,338,411
Property and equipment, net	2,738,516	2,259,507
Long-term investments	0	2,231
Deferred major maintenance, net	148,719	146,850
Operating lease right-of-use assets, net	116,471	130,087
Deposits and other assets	209,705	113,987
TOTAL ASSETS:	4,410,964	3,991,073
CURRENT LIABILITIES
Accounts payable	51,394	43,566
Accrued liabilities	256,429	162,892
Current operating lease liabilities	19,792	19,081
Air traffic liability	429,924	307,453
Current maturities of long-term debt and finance lease obligations, net of related costs	152,550	130,053
TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES	910,089	663,045
Long-term debt and finance lease obligations, net of current maturities and related costs	1,840,000	1,612,486
Deferred income taxes	332,506	346,137
Noncurrent operating lease liabilities	100,111	115,067
Other noncurrent liabilities	39,285	30,786
TOTAL LIABILITIES:	3,221,991	2,767,521
SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
Common stock, par value $0.001	25	25
Treasury shares	(633,332)	(638,057)
Additional paid in capital	703,633	692,053
Accumulated other comprehensive income, net	1,154	2,056
Retained earnings	1,117,493	1,167,475
TOTAL EQUITY:	1,188,973	1,223,552
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY:	$ 4,410,964	$ 3,991,073