CareDx Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD9.66-0.22

Market Closed

-2.23%

CDNA Alerts

1 major insider sales recently.
Losses in recent quarter

CDNA Stock Price

CDNA RSI Chart

CDNA Valuation

Market Cap

517.1M

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

-6.75

Price/Sales (Trailing)

1.61

EV/EBITDA

-6.61

Price/Free Cashflow

-20.49

CDNA Price/Sales (Trailing)

CDNA Profitability

EBT Margin

-23.69%

Return on Equity

-17.78%

Return on Assets

-14.11%

Free Cashflow Yield

-4.88%

CDNA Fundamentals

CDNA Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

321.8M

Revenue Y/Y

3.99%

Revenue Q/Q

3.81%

CDNA Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

-76.6M

Earnings Y/Y

-13.49%

Earnings Q/Q

-8.21%

Price Action

52 Week Range

8.1041.50

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-7.5%

Last 30 days

-34.4%

Last 90 days

-21.3%

Trailing 12 Months

-68.3%

CDNA Financial Health

Current Ratio

5.1

CDNA Investor Care

Shares Dilution (1Y)

1.15%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

-1.44

Peers (Alternatives to CareDx)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
ABBV	275.0B	58.1B	0.21%	1.63%	23.24	4.74	3.30%	2.55%
REGN	80.1B	12.2B	-0.48%	14.17%	18.47	6.58	-24.26%	-46.28%
VRTX	77.3B	8.9B	-1.64%	19.14%	23.26	8.65	17.91%	41.84%
INCY	16.5B	3.4B	-9.50%	-1.15%	48.37	4.85	13.67%	-64.09%
MID-CAP
NTRA	6.5B	820.2M	33.58%	88.13%	-11.84	7.91	31.13%	-16.13%
ARWR	2.6B	278.3M	-26.82%	-37.82%	-16.79	9.32	92.72%	15.56%
SMALL-CAP
VCYT	1.7B	296.5M	-8.83%	-2.63%	-45.88	5.66	35.09%	51.62%
CSTL	594.5M	137.0M	-12.82%	-37.88%	-8.86	4.34	45.65%	-114.55%
CDNA	517.1M	321.8M	-34.40%	-68.30%	-6.75	1.61	8.57%	-149.86%
NVTA	341.3M	516.3M	-32.04%	-78.85%	-0.11	0.66	12.13%	-719.59%
ORGO	276.2M	450.9M	-22.02%	-71.01%	17.79	0.61	-3.52%	-83.51%
CELC	156.8M	-	-8.44%	22.89%	-4.41	-	-	-39.92%
OPGN	3.3M	3.3M	9.17%	59.66%	-0.1	1.01	-21.77%	4.40%

Financials for CareDx

Income Statement (Last 12 Months)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	1.0%	321,793,000	318,629,000	314,859,000	308,413,000	296,397,000
Operating Expenses	1.8%	399,024,000	392,139,000	379,757,000	356,334,000	326,123,000
S&GA Expenses	3.1%	96,027,000	93,183,000	92,292,000	84,941,000	77,245,000
R&D Expenses	1.7%	90,388,000	88,864,000	85,997,000	82,401,000	76,525,000
EBITDA	-6.9%	-64,631,000	-60,459,000	-41,331,000	-23,290,000	-
EBITDA Margin	-4.6%	-0.20	-0.19	-0.13	-0.08	-
Earnings Before Taxes	-1.5%	-76,234,000	-75,130,000	-70,517,000	-50,798,000	-32,088,000
EBT Margin	-0.5%	-0.24	-0.24	-0.22	-0.16	-
Interest Expenses	700.0%	8,000	1,000	-	-	-
Net Income	-2.9%	-76,613,000	-74,435,000	-69,393,000	-49,623,000	-30,662,000
Net Income Margin	-1.9%	-0.24	-0.23	-0.22	-0.16	-
Free Cahsflow	10.7%	-25,239,000	-28,258,000	-20,797,000	-17,413,333	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	-0.3%	543	545	541	547	567
Current Assets	-0.1%	388	388	404	411	433
Cash Equivalents	8.4%	90.00	83.00	167	172	348
Inventory	6.3%	19.00	18.00	19.00	18.00	17.00
Goodwill	0.1%	38.00	38.00	37.00	37.00	37.00
Liabilities	3.9%	112	108	98.00	89.00	101
Current Liabilities	8.1%	76.00	70.00	78.00	67.00	77.00
Shareholder's Equity	-1.3%	431	437	444	458	466
Retained Earnings	-4.3%	-460	-441	-424	-402	-383
Additional Paid-In Capital	1.3%	899	887	875	865	854
Shares Outstanding	0.0%	54.00	54.00	53.00	53.00	53.00

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	10.7%	-25.24	-28.26	-20.80	-7.13	-19.29
Share Based Compensation	6.0%	47.00	44.00	43.00	40.00	36.00
Cashflow From Investing	4.3%	-228	-238	-142	-127	48.00
Cashflow From Financing	-51.3%	-4.53	-3.00	-5.10	-2.72	186
Buy Backs	Infinity%	1.00	0.00	-	-	-

Risks for CDNA

What is the probability of a big loss on CDNA?

100%

Probability that CareDx stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

84.2%

Probability that CareDx stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

46.9%

Probability that CareDx stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does CDNA drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if CareDx was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for CDNA

Cumulative Returns on CDNA

10.7%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

11.3%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

-20.9%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for CDNA?

FIve years rolling returns for CareDx.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold CDNA recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	new	-	724,022	724,022	-%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	reduced	-2.99	-24,000	45,000	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	unchanged	-	-109,265	222,735	-%
2023-02-21	MACQUARIE GROUP LTD	reduced	-44.9	-17,202,000	10,071,000	0.01%
2023-02-17	TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP	sold off	-100	-200,000	-	-%
2023-02-15	Steward Partners Investment Advisory, LLC	unchanged	-	-3,295	5,705	-%
2023-02-15	State of Wyoming	sold off	-100	-36,000	-	-%
2023-02-15	Financial Gravity Asset Management, Inc.	new	-	19.00	19.00	-%
2023-02-15	ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P.	unchanged	-	-354,029	719,971	-%
2023-02-15	LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC	reduced	-81.24	-115,000	16,000	-%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying CDNA calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own CDNA

No. of Funds

CareDx News

Schedule 13G FIlings of CareDx

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Mar 13, 2023	gagnon securities llc	4.7%	2,522,063	SC 13G
Feb 15, 2023	arrowmark colorado holdings llc	7.48%	4,003,218	SC 13G
Feb 14, 2023	bellevue asset management (uk) ltd.	5.9%	3,168,448	SC 13G
Feb 10, 2023	ark investment management llc	11.56%	6,188,182	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	9.84%	5,270,397	SC 13G/A
Feb 08, 2023	invesco ltd.	0.2%	88,421	SC 13G/A
Feb 03, 2023	blackrock inc.	8.2%	4,373,662	SC 13G/A
Jan 10, 2023	alger associates inc	0.9%	503,686	SC 13G/A
Jan 10, 2023	state street corp	10.74%	5,747,244	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2022	alger associates inc	6.2%	3,270,973	SC 13G/A

CDNA Fair Value

CareDx fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for CareDx for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	2.90 -69.98%	3.97 -58.90%	7.16 -25.88%	13.21 36.75%	25.43 163.25%
Current Inflation	2.82 -70.81%	3.78 -60.87%	6.56 -32.09%	11.75 21.64%	22.18 129.61%
Very High Inflation	2.73 -71.74%	3.55 -63.25%	5.84 -39.54%	10.05 4.04%	18.43 90.79%

Historical CareDx Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of CareDx

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 13, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Mar 13, 2023	SC 13G	Major Ownership Report
Mar 06, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 27, 2023	10-K	Annual Report
Feb 27, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Feb 27, 2023	S-8	Employee Benefits Plan
Feb 15, 2023	SC 13G	Major Ownership Report
Feb 14, 2023	SC 13G	Major Ownership Report
Feb 13, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 10, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report

Latest Insider Trading transactions for CDNA

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-02	Seeto Reginald	sold	-44,757	15.8772	-2,819	see remarks
2023-02-10	Seeto Reginald	sold	-131,386	15.479	-8,488	see remarks
2023-02-09	Seeto Reginald	sold	-178,928	16.1284	-11,094	see remarks
2023-02-08	Maag Peter	sold	-51,500	15.7543	-3,269	-
2023-02-07	Seeto Reginald	sold	-50,337	16.4019	-3,069	see remarks
2023-02-03	Seeto Reginald	sold (taxes)	-40,622	16.54	-2,456	see remarks
2023-02-03	Johnson Alexander L	sold (taxes)	-13,794	16.54	-834	chief business officer
2023-02-02	Johnson Alexander L	sold (taxes)	-35,730	17.61	-2,029	chief business officer
2023-02-02	Seeto Reginald	sold	-48,346	17.1503	-2,819	see remarks
2023-02-02	Maag Peter	sold	-85,829	17.1659	-5,000	-

About CareDx

Reginald Seeto

www.caredxinc.com

640

CareDx, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers worldwide. It provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. The company also offers TruSight HLA, a next generation sequencing (NGS) based high resolution typing solution; Olerup SSP, which is used to type human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; QTYPE that enables precision in HLA typing; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software. In addition, it provides AlloSeq Tx, a high-resolution HLA typing solution; AlloSeq cfDNA, a surveillance solution to measure dd-cfDNA in blood; AlloSeq HCT, a solution for chimerism testing for stem cell transplant recipients; and XynQAPI transplant quality tracking and waitlist management solutions, as well as AlloCare, a mobile app that offers a patient-centric resource for transplant recipients. The company offers its products directly to customers, as well as through third-party distributors and sub-distributors. It has a license agreement with Illumina, Inc. for the distribution, development, and commercialization of NGS products and technologies; and Cibiltech SAS to commercialize iBox, a software for the predictive analysis of post-transplantation kidney allograft loss. The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc. and changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

CDNA Income Statement

2022-12-31

Consolidated Statements of Operations - USD ($) $ in Thousands	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
Revenues [Abstract]
Revenue	$ 321,793	$ 296,397	$ 192,194
Operating expenses:
Research and development	90,388	76,525	48,941
Sales and marketing	96,027	77,245	53,858
General and administrative	100,397	74,964	48,806
Total operating expenses	399,024	326,123	214,722
Loss from operations	(77,231)	(29,726)	(22,528)
Other income (expense):
Interest income, net	3,762	160	271
Change in estimated fair value of common stock warrant liability	107	106	(1,495)
CARES Act Provider Relief Fund	0	0	4,813
Other expense, net	(2,872)	(2,628)	(811)
Total other income (expense)	997	(2,362)	2,778
Loss before income taxes	(76,234)	(32,088)	(19,750)
Income tax (expense) benefit	(379)	1,426	1,036
Net loss	$ (76,613)	$ (30,662)	$ (18,714)
Net loss per share (Note 3):
Basic (in dollars per share)	$ (1.44)	$ (0.59)	$ (0.40)
Diluted (in dollars per share)	$ (1.44)	$ (0.59)	$ (0.40)
Weighted-average shares used to compute net loss per share:
Basic (in shares)	53,321,625	52,241,076	46,481,772
Diluted (in shares)	53,321,625	52,241,076	46,481,772
Testing services revenue
Revenues [Abstract]
Revenue	$ 263,748	$ 259,285	$ 163,610
Operating expenses:
Cost of testing services, product, patient and digital solutions	72,286	71,251	43,932
Product revenue
Revenues [Abstract]
Revenue	29,251	26,832	19,302
Operating expenses:
Cost of testing services, product, patient and digital solutions	17,639	18,930	13,847
Patient and digital solutions
Revenues [Abstract]
Revenue	28,794	10,280	9,282
Operating expenses:
Cost of testing services, product, patient and digital solutions	$ 22,287	$ 7,208	$ 5,338

CDNA Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 89,921	$ 348,485
Marketable securities	203,168	0
Accounts receivable	66,312	59,761
Inventory	19,232	17,186
Prepaid and other current assets	9,216	7,928
Total current assets	387,849	433,360
Property and equipment, net	35,529	22,044
Operating leases right-of-use assets	34,689	17,993
Intangible assets, net	43,051	50,195
Goodwill	37,523	36,983
Restricted cash	522	211
Other assets	3,828	5,835
Total assets	542,991	566,621
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable	9,942	13,337
Accrued compensation	16,902	26,042
Accrued and other liabilities	49,131	37,922
Total current liabilities	75,975	77,301
Deferred tax liability	0	415
Common stock warrant liability	32	139
Deferred payments for intangible assets	2,418	5,041
Operating lease liability, less current portion	33,406	17,394
Other liabilities	249	455
Total liabilities	112,080	100,745
Commitments and contingencies (Note 9)
Stockholders’ equity:
Preferred stock: $0.001 par value; 10,000,000 shares authorized at December 31, 2022 and 2021; no shares issued and outstanding at December 31, 2022 and 2021	0	0
Common stock: $0.001 par value; 100,000,000 shares authorized at December 31, 2022 and 2021; 53,583,301 and 52,923,360 shares issued at December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively; 53,533,250 and 52,923,360 shares outstanding at December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively	52	52
Additional paid-in capital	898,806	853,683
Accumulated other comprehensive loss	(7,503)	(4,670)
Accumulated deficit	(460,444)	(383,189)
Total stockholders’ equity	430,911	465,876
Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity	$ 542,991	$ 566,621