Certara, Inc. Stock Research

Market Summary

USD22.78+2.22

Market Closed

10.80%

CERT Alerts

1 major insider sales recently.
Big jump in Earnings (Y/Y)

CERT Stock Price

CERT RSI Chart

CERT Valuation

Market Cap

3.6B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

246.69

Price/Sales (Trailing)

10.83

EV/EBITDA

96.39

Price/Free Cashflow

39.88

CERT Price/Sales (Trailing)

CERT Profitability

Operating Margin

60.50%

EBT Margin

5.59%

Return on Equity

1.36%

Return on Assets

0.94%

Free Cashflow Yield

2.51%

CERT Fundamentals

CERT Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

335.6M

Revenue Y/Y

14.98%

Revenue Q/Q

2.28%

CERT Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

14.7M

Earnings Y/Y

194.59%

Earnings Q/Q

133.08%

Price Action

52 Week Range

10.6024.66

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-3.3%

Last 30 days

7.9%

Last 90 days

25.4%

Trailing 12 Months

8.0%

CERT Financial Health

Current Ratio

3.32

Debt/Equity

0.27

Debt/Cashflow

0.32

CERT Investor Care

Buy Backs (1Y)

0.08%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

0.09

Financials for Certara

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	3.5%	336	324	314	301	286
Operating Expenses	0.5%	171	170	175	168	161
S&GA Expenses	4.1%	27.00	26.00	25.00	23.00	20.00
R&D Expenses	0.3%	28.00	28.00	26.00	23.00	20.00
EBITDA	18.6%	38.00	32.00	19.00	17.00	-
EBITDA Margin	14.6%	0.11*	0.10*	0.06*	-	-
Earnings Before Taxes	26.1%	19.00	15.00	3.00	-1.21	-3.37
EBT Margin	21.9%	0.06*	0.05*	0.01*	-	-
Interest Expenses	13.8%	18.00	16.00	14.00	16.00	17.00
Net Income	455.6%	15.00	-4.14	-9.84	-12.11	-13.27
Net Income Margin	443.7%	0.04*	-0.01*	-0.03*	-	-
Free Cahsflow	19.1%	91.00	76.00	72.00	64.00	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	4.3%	1,573	1,509	1,502	1,507	1,512
Current Assets	12.2%	342	305	286	275	275
Cash Equivalents	13.9%	240	211	195	184	186
Net PPE	-8.0%	2.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00
Goodwill	3.0%	718	697	701	705	703
Liabilities	8.6%	493	454	453	459	470
Current Liabilities	34.8%	103	77.00	82.00	82.00	92.00
Long Term Debt	-0.1%	293	294	294	295	-
LT Debt, Current	0%	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00
LT Debt, Non Current	-0.2%	290	290	291	291	292
Shareholder's Equity	2.4%	1,080	1,054	1,048	1,048	1,042
Retained Earnings	13.1%	-60.87	-70.05	-73.98	-73.39	-75.60
Additional Paid-In Capital	0.6%	1,150	1,144	1,137	1,127	1,120
Shares Outstanding	-0.2%	160	160	160	160	160

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	18.8%	93.00	78.00	74.00	65.00	60.00
Share Based Compensation	-4.0%	32.00	34.00	32.00	29.00	-
Cashflow From Investing	89.5%	-27.84	-264	-263	-275	-269
Cashflow From Financing	26.7%	-7.36	-10.04	124	123	123

Risks for CERT

What is the probability of a big loss on CERT?

89.9%

Probability that Certara stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

89.9%

Probability that Certara stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

52.9%

Probability that Certara stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does CERT drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Certara was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for CERT

Cumulative Returns on CERT

Which funds bought or sold CERT recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	reduced	-0.04	31,728	183,728	-%
2023-03-10	BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	reduced	-5.95	19,928,600	164,297,000	0.17%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	unchanged	-	-	1,000	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	reduced	-0.11	100,594	584,594	-%
2023-02-21	MACQUARIE GROUP LTD	sold off	-100	-62,000	-	-%
2023-02-17	TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP	reduced	-25.00	-19,826	194,174	-%
2023-02-15	MetLife Investment Management, LLC	reduced	-2.11	13,585	86,585	-%
2023-02-15	Point72 Middle East FZE	new	-	161,295	161,295	0.01%
2023-02-15	JANE STREET GROUP, LLC	sold off	-100	-297,000	-	-%
2023-02-15	PUBLIC EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF OHIO	reduced	-25.65	-107,000	957,000	-%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying CERT calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own CERT

No. of Funds

Certara News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Certara

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	6.80%	10,850,994	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	eqt avatar parent l.p.	0%	0	SC 13G/A
Jan 18, 2023	baillie gifford & co	6.40%	10,223,809	SC 13G/A
Dec 16, 2022	arsenal capital partners iii lp	2.2%	3,559,745	SC 13D
Feb 14, 2022	eqt avatar parent l.p.	23.5%	37,458,939	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2022	vanguard group inc	5.92%	9,310,068	SC 13G

CERT Fair Value

Certara fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Certara for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	1.95 -91.44%	2.11 -90.74%	2.55 -88.81%	3.13 -86.26%	3.62 -84.11%
Current Inflation	1.92 -91.57%	2.07 -90.91%	2.45 -89.24%	2.95 -87.05%	3.37 -85.21%
Very High Inflation	1.89 -91.70%	2.01 -91.18%	2.32 -89.82%	2.73 -88.02%	3.08 -86.48%

Historical Certara Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Certara

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 07, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 06, 2023	144	Notice of Insider Sale Intent
Mar 01, 2023	10-K	Annual Report
Mar 01, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Mar 01, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Feb 09, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 09, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Jan 18, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Dec 23, 2022	8-K	Current Report

Latest Insider Trading transactions for CERT

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-06	Traynor Richard M.	sold	-214,500	21.45	-10,000	svp and general counsel
2023-02-02	Traynor Richard M.	sold	-300,000	20.00	-15,000	svp and general counsel
2022-12-08	EQT Avatar Parent L.P.	sold	-449,318,000	15.00	-29,954,500	-
2022-11-22	Pedersen Leif E	sold	-796,518	15.55	-51,223	president, software
2022-11-15	SLAINE MASON P	sold	-3,827,000	15.57	-245,793	-
2022-11-14	WALSH MATTHEW M	sold	-177,750	14.74	-12,059	-
2022-11-14	SLAINE MASON P	sold	-64,240	15.27	-4,207	-
2022-11-09	SMITH PATRICK F	sold	-32,176	13.48	-2,387	president, integrated drug dev
2022-11-01	SMITH PATRICK F	sold (taxes)	-15,214	12.23	-1,244	president, integrated drug dev
2022-09-30	Virkler Drayton	acquired	-	-	13,595	interim president, reg & acces

About Certara

William F. Feehery

www.certara.com

350

Certara, Inc. provides software products and technology-enabled services to customers for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access. It offers medicines to patients using biosimulation software, technology, and services to transform drug discovery and development. The company also provides related technology-enabled services to guide its customers' new drugs through the regulatory submission process and into the market. Its technology-enabled services include mechanistic biosimulation, empirical biosimulation, drug development and regulatory strategy, clinical pharmacology, model-based meta-analysis, regulatory writing and medical communications, regulatory operations, and market access. Further, company offers software, comprising mechanistic biosimulation platform, empirical PK/PD biosimulation platform, data standardization and compliance software, scientific informatics platform, clinical outcomes databases for biosimulation, authoring and management of regulatory submissions platform, and market access communication platform. The company serves biopharmaceutical companies, and academic and government institutions. It has operations in the United States, Canada, Spain, Luxembourg, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Switzerland, Italy, Poland, Japan, the Philippines, India, Australia, and China. Certara Inc. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey.

CERT Income Statement

2022-12-31

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE LOSS - USD ($) $ in Thousands	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE LOSS
Revenues	$ 335,644	$ 286,104	$ 243,530
Cost of revenues	132,577	111,616	100,765
Operating expenses:
Sales and marketing	27,408	20,141	19,202
Research and development	28,205	20,379	19,644
General and administrative	71,773	79,539	88,482
Intangible asset amortization	41,429	38,715	37,414
Depreciation and amortization expense	1,731	2,135	2,443
Total operating expenses	170,546	160,909	167,185
Income (loss) from operations	32,521	13,579	(24,420)
Other expense:
Interest expense	(17,773)	(16,837)	(25,296)
Net other income (expense)	4,007	(117)	(465)
Total other expenses	(13,766)	(16,954)	(25,761)
Income (loss) before income taxes	18,755	(3,375)	(50,181)
Provision for (benefit from) income taxes	4,024	9,891	(784)
Net income (loss)	14,731	(13,266)	(49,397)
Other comprehensive income (loss):
Foreign currency translation adjustment, net of tax of $(916), $195, $(277)	(10,490)	(5,154)	5,045
Change in fair value of interest rate swap, net of tax of $2,056, $(16), $(384)	6,186	547	(1,135)
Reclassification of fair value of interest rate swap, net of tax of $0, $(765), $0		2,268
Total other comprehensive income (loss)	(4,304)	(2,339)	3,910
Comprehensive income (loss)	$ 10,427	$ (15,605)	$ (45,487)
Net income (loss) per share attributable to common stockholders:
Basic (in dollar per share)	$ 0.09	$ (0.09)	$ (0.37)
Diluted (in dollar per share)	$ 0.09	$ (0.09)	$ (0.37)
Weighted average common shares outstanding:
Basic (in shares)	156,876,942	149,842,668	133,247,212
Diluted (in shares)	159,354,394	149,842,668	133,247,212

CERT Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 236,586	$ 185,797
Accounts receivable, net of allowance for credit losses of $1,250 and $262, respectively	82,584	69,555
Restricted cash	3,102	827
Prepaid expenses and other current assets	19,980	18,548
Total current assets	342,252	274,727
Other assets:
Property and equipment, net	2,400	2,935
Operating lease right-of-use assets	14,427	12,634
Goodwill	717,743	703,371
Intangible assets, net of $217,705 and $169,329, respectively	486,782	511,823
Deferred income taxes	3,703	4,073
Other long-term assets	5,615	2,167
Total assets	1,572,922	1,511,730
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable	7,533	7,458
Accrued expenses	35,403	29,830
Current portion of deferred revenue	52,209	45,496
Current portion of long-term debt	3,020	3,020
Current operating lease liabilities	4,968	5,040
Other current liabilities	25	1,381
Total current liabilities	103,158	92,225
Long-term liabilities:
Deferred revenue, net of current portion	2,815	1,531
Deferred income taxes	65,046	76,098
Operating lease liabilities, net of current portion	10,133	8,256
Long-term debt, net of current portion and debt discount	289,988	291,746
Other long-term liabilities	22,121	25
Total liabilities	493,261	469,881
Commitments and contingencies
Stockholders' equity:
Preferred shares, $0.01 par value, 50,000,000 and no shares authorized as of December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively, no shares issued and outstanding as of December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively
Common shares, $0.01 par value, 600,000,000 shares authorized, 159,676,150 and 159,660,048 shares issued as of December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively, 159,525,943 and 159,658,948 shares outstanding as of December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively	1,596	1,596
Additional paid-in capital	1,150,168	1,119,821
Accumulated deficit	(60,873)	(75,604)
Accumulated other comprehensive loss	(8,230)	(3,926)
Treasury stock at cost, 150,207 and 1,100 shares at December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively	(3,000)	(38)
Total stockholders' equity	1,079,661	1,041,849
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity	$ 1,572,922	$ 1,511,730