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Certara, Inc. Stock Research

CERT

22.78USD+2.22(+10.80%)Market Closed

Market Summary

USD22.78+2.22
Market Closed
10.80%

CERT Alerts

CERT Stock Price

CERT RSI Chart

CERT Valuation

Market Cap

3.6B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

246.69

Price/Sales (Trailing)

10.83

EV/EBITDA

96.39

Price/Free Cashflow

39.88

CERT Price/Sales (Trailing)

CERT Profitability

Operating Margin

60.50%

EBT Margin

5.59%

Return on Equity

1.36%

Return on Assets

0.94%

Free Cashflow Yield

2.51%

CERT Fundamentals

CERT Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

335.6M

Revenue Y/Y

14.98%

Revenue Q/Q

2.28%

CERT Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

14.7M

Earnings Y/Y

194.59%

Earnings Q/Q

133.08%

Price Action

52 Week Range

10.6024.66
(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-3.3%

Last 30 days

7.9%

Last 90 days

25.4%

Trailing 12 Months

8.0%

CERT Financial Health

Current Ratio

3.32

Debt/Equity

0.27

Debt/Cashflow

0.32

CERT Investor Care

Buy Backs (1Y)

0.08%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

0.09

Financials for Certara

Income Statement (Last 12 Months)
(In Millions)
* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Revenue3.5%336324314301286
Operating Expenses0.5%171170175168161
  S&GA Expenses4.1%27.0026.0025.0023.0020.00
  R&D Expenses0.3%28.0028.0026.0023.0020.00
EBITDA18.6%38.0032.0019.0017.00-
EBITDA Margin14.6%0.11*0.10*0.06*--
Earnings Before Taxes26.1%19.0015.003.00-1.21-3.37
EBT Margin21.9%0.06*0.05*0.01*--
Interest Expenses13.8%18.0016.0014.0016.0017.00
Net Income455.6%15.00-4.14-9.84-12.11-13.27
Net Income Margin443.7%0.04*-0.01*-0.03*--
Free Cahsflow19.1%91.0076.0072.0064.00-
Balance Sheet
(In Millions)
* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Assets4.3%1,5731,5091,5021,5071,512
  Current Assets12.2%342305286275275
    Cash Equivalents13.9%240211195184186
  Net PPE-8.0%2.003.003.003.003.00
  Goodwill3.0%718697701705703
Liabilities8.6%493454453459470
  Current Liabilities34.8%10377.0082.0082.0092.00
  Long Term Debt-0.1%293294294295-
    LT Debt, Current0%3.003.003.003.003.00
    LT Debt, Non Current-0.2%290290291291292
Shareholder's Equity2.4%1,0801,0541,0481,0481,042
  Retained Earnings13.1%-60.87-70.05-73.98-73.39-75.60
  Additional Paid-In Capital0.6%1,1501,1441,1371,1271,120
Shares Outstanding-0.2%160160160160160
Cashflow (Last 12 Months)
(In Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Cashflow From Operations18.8%93.0078.0074.0065.0060.00
  Share Based Compensation-4.0%32.0034.0032.0029.00-
Cashflow From Investing89.5%-27.84-264-263-275-269
Cashflow From Financing26.7%-7.36-10.04124123123

Risks for CERT

What is the probability of a big loss on CERT?

89.9%


Probability that Certara stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

89.9%


Probability that Certara stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

52.9%


Probability that Certara stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.
*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does CERT drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Certara was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for CERT

Cumulative Returns on CERT

Which funds bought or sold CERT recently?

View All Details
Datesorted ascendingFund NameType% Chg$ Change$ Held% Portfolio
2023-03-10
VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC
reduced
-0.04
31,728
183,728
-%
2023-03-10
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO
reduced
-5.95
19,928,600
164,297,000
0.17%
2023-03-06
Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.
unchanged
-
-
1,000
-%
2023-02-28
Voya Investment Management LLC
reduced
-0.11
100,594
584,594
-%
2023-02-21
MACQUARIE GROUP LTD
sold off
-100
-62,000
-
-%
2023-02-17
TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP
reduced
-25.00
-19,826
194,174
-%
2023-02-15
MetLife Investment Management, LLC
reduced
-2.11
13,585
86,585
-%
2023-02-15
Point72 Middle East FZE
new
-
161,295
161,295
0.01%
2023-02-15
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC
sold off
-100
-297,000
-
-%
2023-02-15
PUBLIC EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF OHIO
reduced
-25.65
-107,000
957,000
-%

1–10 of 48

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying CERT calls or puts?
Calls
Puts
Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?
Net Call Options
No. of funds that own CERT
No. of Funds

Certara News

MarketBeat

Certara, Inc. (NASDAQ:CERT) Shares Sold by Riverbridge Partners ....

MarketBeat,
18 hours ago

Seeking Alpha

Investing.com UK

Investor's Business Daily

Marketscreener.com

InvestorsObserver

Schedule 13G FIlings of Certara

Date FiledName of FilerPercent of ClassNo. of SharesForm Type
Feb 09, 2023
vanguard group inc
6.80%
10,850,994
SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023
eqt avatar parent l.p.
0%
0
SC 13G/A
Jan 18, 2023
baillie gifford & co
6.40%
10,223,809
SC 13G/A
Dec 16, 2022
arsenal capital partners iii lp
2.2%
3,559,745
SC 13D
Feb 14, 2022
eqt avatar parent l.p.
23.5%
37,458,939
SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2022
vanguard group inc
5.92%
9,310,068
SC 13G

CERT Fair Value

Certara fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Certara for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.
Fair ValueVery PessimisticPessimisticBase CaseOptimisticVery Optimistic
Very Low Inflation

1.95

-91.44%

2.11

-90.74%

2.55

-88.81%

3.13

-86.26%

3.62

-84.11%
Current Inflation

1.92

-91.57%

2.07

-90.91%

2.45

-89.24%

2.95

-87.05%

3.37

-85.21%
Very High Inflation

1.89

-91.70%

2.01

-91.18%

2.32

-89.82%

2.73

-88.02%

3.08

-86.48%

Historical Certara Fair Value Estimates


Very Pessimistic Case
Pessimistic Case
Fair Value
Optimistic Case
Very Optimistic Case
Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Certara

View All Filings
Date Filed Form Type Document
Mar 07, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Mar 06, 2023
144
Notice of Insider Sale Intent
Mar 01, 2023
10-K
Annual Report
Mar 01, 2023
8-K
Current Report
Mar 01, 2023
8-K
Current Report
Feb 09, 2023
SC 13G/A
Major Ownership Report
Feb 09, 2023
SC 13G/A
Major Ownership Report
Feb 03, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Jan 18, 2023
SC 13G/A
Major Ownership Report
Dec 23, 2022
8-K
Current Report

Latest Insider Trading transactions for CERT

Filter Transactions
Datesorted ascendingNameBuy/Sell$ ValueAvg. Price# SharesTitle
2023-03-06
Traynor Richard M.
sold
-214,500
21.45
-10,000
svp and general counsel
2023-02-02
Traynor Richard M.
sold
-300,000
20.00
-15,000
svp and general counsel
2022-12-08
EQT Avatar Parent L.P.
sold
-449,318,000
15.00
-29,954,500
-
2022-11-22
Pedersen Leif E
sold
-796,518
15.55
-51,223
president, software
2022-11-15
SLAINE MASON P
sold
-3,827,000
15.57
-245,793
-
2022-11-14
WALSH MATTHEW M
sold
-177,750
14.74
-12,059
-
2022-11-14
SLAINE MASON P
sold
-64,240
15.27
-4,207
-
2022-11-09
SMITH PATRICK F
sold
-32,176
13.48
-2,387
president, integrated drug dev
2022-11-01
SMITH PATRICK F
sold (taxes)
-15,214
12.23
-1,244
president, integrated drug dev
2022-09-30
Virkler Drayton
acquired
-
-
13,595
interim president, reg & acces

1–10 of 50

William F. Feehery
350
Certara, Inc. provides software products and technology-enabled services to customers for biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions, and market access. It offers medicines to patients using biosimulation software, technology, and services to transform drug discovery and development. The company also provides related technology-enabled services to guide its customers' new drugs through the regulatory submission process and into the market. Its technology-enabled services include mechanistic biosimulation, empirical biosimulation, drug development and regulatory strategy, clinical pharmacology, model-based meta-analysis, regulatory writing and medical communications, regulatory operations, and market access. Further, company offers software, comprising mechanistic biosimulation platform, empirical PK/PD biosimulation platform, data standardization and compliance software, scientific informatics platform, clinical outcomes databases for biosimulation, authoring and management of regulatory submissions platform, and market access communication platform. The company serves biopharmaceutical companies, and academic and government institutions. It has operations in the United States, Canada, Spain, Luxembourg, Portugal, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Switzerland, Italy, Poland, Japan, the Philippines, India, Australia, and China. Certara Inc. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey.

CERT Income Statement

2022-12-31
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE LOSS - USD ($)
$ in Thousands
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2022
Dec. 31, 2021
Dec. 31, 2020
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE LOSS   
Revenues$ 335,644$ 286,104$ 243,530
Cost of revenues132,577111,616100,765
Operating expenses:   
Sales and marketing27,40820,14119,202
Research and development28,20520,37919,644
General and administrative71,77379,53988,482
Intangible asset amortization41,42938,71537,414
Depreciation and amortization expense1,7312,1352,443
Total operating expenses170,546160,909167,185
Income (loss) from operations32,52113,579(24,420)
Other expense:   
Interest expense(17,773)(16,837)(25,296)
Net other income (expense)4,007(117)(465)
Total other expenses(13,766)(16,954)(25,761)
Income (loss) before income taxes18,755(3,375)(50,181)
Provision for (benefit from) income taxes4,0249,891(784)
Net income (loss)14,731(13,266)(49,397)
Other comprehensive income (loss):   
Foreign currency translation adjustment, net of tax of $(916), $195, $(277)(10,490)(5,154)5,045
Change in fair value of interest rate swap, net of tax of $2,056, $(16), $(384)6,186547(1,135)
Reclassification of fair value of interest rate swap, net of tax of $0, $(765), $0 2,268 
Total other comprehensive income (loss)(4,304)(2,339)3,910
Comprehensive income (loss)$ 10,427$ (15,605)$ (45,487)
Net income (loss) per share attributable to common stockholders:   
Basic (in dollar per share)$ 0.09$ (0.09)$ (0.37)
Diluted (in dollar per share)$ 0.09$ (0.09)$ (0.37)
Weighted average common shares outstanding:   
Basic (in shares)156,876,942149,842,668133,247,212
Diluted (in shares)159,354,394149,842,668133,247,212

CERT Balance Sheet

2022-12-31
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS - USD ($)
$ in Thousands
Dec. 31, 2022
Dec. 31, 2021
Current assets:  
Cash and cash equivalents$ 236,586$ 185,797
Accounts receivable, net of allowance for credit losses of $1,250 and $262, respectively82,58469,555
Restricted cash3,102827
Prepaid expenses and other current assets19,98018,548
Total current assets342,252274,727
Other assets:  
Property and equipment, net2,4002,935
Operating lease right-of-use assets14,42712,634
Goodwill717,743703,371
Intangible assets, net of $217,705 and $169,329, respectively486,782511,823
Deferred income taxes3,7034,073
Other long-term assets5,6152,167
Total assets1,572,9221,511,730
Current liabilities:  
Accounts payable7,5337,458
Accrued expenses35,40329,830
Current portion of deferred revenue52,20945,496
Current portion of long-term debt3,0203,020
Current operating lease liabilities4,9685,040
Other current liabilities251,381
Total current liabilities103,15892,225
Long-term liabilities:  
Deferred revenue, net of current portion2,8151,531
Deferred income taxes65,04676,098
Operating lease liabilities, net of current portion10,1338,256
Long-term debt, net of current portion and debt discount289,988291,746
Other long-term liabilities22,12125
Total liabilities493,261469,881
Commitments and contingencies
Stockholders' equity:  
Preferred shares, $0.01 par value, 50,000,000 and no shares authorized as of December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively, no shares issued and outstanding as of December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively
Common shares, $0.01 par value, 600,000,000 shares authorized, 159,676,150 and 159,660,048 shares issued as of December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively, 159,525,943 and 159,658,948 shares outstanding as of December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively1,5961,596
Additional paid-in capital1,150,1681,119,821
Accumulated deficit(60,873)(75,604)
Accumulated other comprehensive loss(8,230)(3,926)
Treasury stock at cost, 150,207 and 1,100 shares at December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively(3,000)(38)
Total stockholders' equity1,079,6611,041,849
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity$ 1,572,922$ 1,511,730