CF Industries Holdings Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD73.06+0.58

Market Closed

0.80%

CF Stock Price

CF RSI Chart

CF Valuation

Market Cap

14.6B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

3.72

Price/Sales (Trailing)

1.31

EV/EBITDA

1.96

Price/Free Cashflow

4.3

CF Price/Sales (Trailing)

CF Profitability

Operating Margin

52.40%

EBT Margin

45.55%

Return on Equity

77.94%

Return on Assets

29.57%

Free Cashflow Yield

23.26%

CF Fundamentals

CF Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

11.2B

Revenue Y/Y

2.68%

Revenue Q/Q

12.37%

CF Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

3.9B

Earnings Y/Y

17.46%

Earnings Q/Q

87.55%

Price Action

52 Week Range

70.69119.13

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-14.0%

Last 30 days

-16.2%

Last 90 days

-23.3%

Trailing 12 Months

-22.7%

CF Financial Health

Current Ratio

3.69

CF Investor Care

Dividend Yield

2.05%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

1.5

Buy Backs (1Y)

6.84%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

16.38

Peers (Alternatives to CF Industries Holdings)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
ECL	45.2B	14.2B	7.67%	-4.79%	41.38	3.18	11.42%	-3.38%
IFF	21.3B	12.4B	-14.07%	-30.43%	-11.45	1.72	6.73%	-768.10%
MOS	15.1B	19.1B	-10.93%	-23.25%	4.22	0.79	54.77%	119.72%
CF	14.6B	11.2B	-16.16%	-22.68%	3.72	1.31	71.09%	212.46%
MID-CAP
AXTA	5.3B	4.9B	-4.95%	17.14%	26.11	1.1	10.60%	-27.40%
ESI	4.6B	2.5B	-7.98%	-13.47%	24.63	1.82	6.23%	-7.71%
SMG	4.2B	3.9B	-7.47%	-33.97%	-9.23	1.07	-18.08%	-203.17%
FUL	3.5B	3.7B	-9.37%	-0.43%	19.5	0.94	14.37%	11.72%
NEU	3.4B	2.8B	-2.30%	6.20%	12.09	1.22	17.35%	46.43%
SMALL-CAP
UAN	886.3M	835.6M	-14.09%	-12.40%	3.09	1.06	56.89%	266.96%
AVD	616.4M	608.4M	-4.51%	17.71%	21.72	1.01	12.92%	31.26%
AMRS	428.8M	258.8M	-24.68%	-69.95%	-1.26	1.66	-27.46%	18.54%
MBII	145.5M	-	-28.10%	-47.84%	-6.97	3.28	-	-
CGA	55.6M	148.4M	-1.44%	-50.07%	-1	0.37	-17.87%	42.15%

Financials for CF Industries Holdings

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	0.6%	11,186	11,118	10,159	8,358	6,538
Gross Profit	1.8%	5,861	5,760	5,284	3,796	2,387
Operating Expenses	5.5%	558	529	895	718	705
S&GA Expenses	12.0%	290	259	245	232	223
EBITDA	0.9%	6,289	6,231	5,385	4,069	-
EBITDA Margin	0.3%	0.56*	0.56*	0.53*	0.49*	-
Earnings Before Taxes	3.4%	5,095	4,928	4,098	2,800	1,543
EBT Margin	2.8%	0.46*	0.44*	0.40*	0.34*	-
Interest Expenses	-16.7%	344	413	413	377	184
Net Income	4.0%	3,937	3,787	3,158	2,136	1,260
Net Income Margin	3.3%	0.35*	0.34*	0.31*	0.26*	-
Free Cahsflow	-20.9%	3,402	4,299	3,985	3,180	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	0.2%	13,313	13,280	13,423	13,782	12,375
Current Assets	-0.2%	3,673	3,680	3,738	3,826	2,593
Cash Equivalents	6.0%	2,323	2,192	2,370	2,617	1,628
Inventory	-5.2%	474	500	497	488	408
Net PPE	-1.0%	6,437	6,500	6,622	6,906	7,081
Goodwill	0.0%	2,089	2,088	2,090	2,091	2,091
Current Liabilities	-28.0%	995	1,381	1,097	2,228	1,432
LT Debt, Current	Infinity%	499	-	-	-	-
LT Debt, Non Current	0%	2,965	2,965	2,964	2,963	3,465
Shareholder's Equity	13.7%	5,051	4,444	7,514	6,753	3,206
Retained Earnings	-5.4%	3,867	4,087	3,729	2,907	2,088
Additional Paid-In Capital	-5.1%	1,412	1,488	1,474	1,482	1,375
Shares Outstanding	-3.8%	200	208	209	-	-
Minority Interest	5.6%	2,802	2,653	2,925	2,751	2,830

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	-18.8%	3,855	4,750	4,447	3,686	2,873
Share Based Compensation	5.1%	41.00	39.00	36.00	32.00	30.00
Cashflow From Investing	-12.5%	-440	-391	-405	-457	-466
Cashflow From Financing	6.8%	-2,700	-2,897	-2,434	-1,415	-1,463
Dividend Payments	4.8%	306	292	277	259	260
Buy Backs	-15.0%	1,347	1,585	1,116	637	539

Risks for CF

What is the probability of a big loss on CF?

65.8%

Probability that CF Industries Holdings stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

21.5%

Probability that CF Industries Holdings stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

18.9%

Probability that CF Industries Holdings stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does CF drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if CF Industries Holdings was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for CF

Cumulative Returns on CF

8.8%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

14.7%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

16.5%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

41.1%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for CF?

FIve years rolling returns for CF Industries Holdings.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold CF recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-15	B. Riley Wealth Advisors, Inc.	added	11.86	-6,727	587,273	0.02%
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	reduced	-6.88	-20,465,500	95,998,500	0.10%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	reduced	-23.65	-160,000	334,000	-%
2023-03-01	Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC	new	-	7,600,550	7,600,550	2.70%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	added	60.96	17,055,700	57,201,700	0.08%
2023-02-27	Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P.	new	-	3,066,860	3,066,860	-%
2023-02-27	ST GERMAIN D J CO INC	new	-	13,632	13,632	-%
2023-02-27	HARVEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	unchanged	-	-839,374	6,475,630	2.71%
2023-02-24	NATIXIS	sold off	-100	-12,898,000	-	-%
2023-02-24	National Pension Service	reduced	-2.64	-3,888,810	22,870,200	0.04%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying CF calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own CF

No. of Funds

CF Industries Holdings News

Schedule 13G FIlings of CF Industries Holdings

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 14, 2023	price t rowe associates inc /md/	6.2%	12,144,184	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2023	blackrock inc.	11.4%	22,272,451	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	fmr llc	-	0	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	12.89%	25,298,470	SC 13G/A
Jan 26, 2023	blackrock inc.	11.5%	22,566,951	SC 13G/A
Jan 20, 2023	blackrock inc.	11.5%	22,566,951	SC 13G/A
Mar 11, 2022	blackrock inc.	9.8%	21,036,924	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2022	price t rowe associates inc /md/	6.6%	14,349,469	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2022	vanguard group inc	11.96%	25,652,876	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2022	blackrock inc.	11.0%	23,679,472	SC 13G/A

CF Fair Value

CF Industries Holdings fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for CF Industries Holdings for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	185.57 154.00%	272.85 273.46%	386.96 429.65%	514.69 604.48%	622.95 752.66%
Current Inflation	168.36 130.44%	200.21 174.04%	355.41 386.46%	429.76 488.23%	550.37 653.31%
Very High Inflation	153.02 109.44%	213.19 191.80%	290.88 298.14%	378.56 418.15%	450.04 515.99%

Historical CF Industries Holdings Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of CF Industries Holdings

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 06, 2023	PRE 14A	PRE 14A
Mar 02, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 02, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 02, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 02, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 02, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 02, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 02, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 01, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 23, 2023	10-K	Annual Report

Latest Insider Trading transactions for CF

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-02-28	Menzel Susan L	sold (taxes)	-762,016	85.89	-8,872	sr. vp, human resources
2023-02-28	Frost Bert A	sold (taxes)	-1,338,770	85.89	-15,587	sr vp sales mkt dev supply chn
2023-02-28	Malik Ashraf K	sold (taxes)	-475,229	85.89	-5,533	sr. vp, manufacturing & d'istn
2023-02-28	Hoker Richard A	sold (taxes)	-427,475	85.89	-4,977	vp and corporate controller
2023-02-28	Will W Anthony	acquired	-	-	150,794	president & ceo
2023-02-28	Bohn Christopher D	sold (taxes)	-1,243,170	85.89	-14,474	sr. vp and cfo
2023-02-28	Hoker Richard A	gifted	-	-	6,333	vp and corporate controller
2023-02-28	Hoker Richard A	gifted	-	-	-6,333	vp and corporate controller
2023-02-28	Menzel Susan L	acquired	-	-	20,105	sr. vp, human resources
2023-02-28	Malik Ashraf K	acquired	-	-	12,566	sr. vp, manufacturing & d'istn

About CF Industries Holdings

W. Anthony Will

www.cfindustries.com

3000

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products; and compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.

CF Income Statement

2022-12-31

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS - USD ($) shares in Millions, $ in Millions	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
Income Statement [Abstract]
Net sales	$ 11,186.0	$ 6,538.0	$ 4,124.0
Cost of sales	5,325.0	4,151.0	3,323.0
Gross margin	5,861.0	2,387.0	801.0
Selling, general and administrative expenses	290.0	223.0	206.0
U.K. goodwill impairment	0.0	285.0	0.0
U.K. long-lived and intangible asset impairment	239.0	236.0	0.0
Restructuring Charges	19.0	0.0	0.0
Other operating—net	10.0	(39.0)	(17.0)
Total other operating costs and expenses	558.0	705.0	189.0
Equity in earnings of operating affiliate	94.0	47.0	11.0
Operating earnings	5,397.0	1,729.0	623.0
Interest expense	344.0	184.0	179.0
Interest income	(65.0)	(1.0)	(18.0)
Loss on debt extinguishment	8.0	19.0	0.0
Other non-operating—net	15.0	(16.0)	(1.0)
Earnings before income taxes	5,095.0	1,543.0	463.0
Income tax provision	1,158.0	283.0	31.0
Net earnings	3,937.0	1,260.0	432.0
Less: Net earnings attributable to noncontrolling interest	591.0	343.0	115.0
Net earnings attributable to common stockholders	$ 3,346.0	$ 917.0	$ 317.0
Net earnings per share attributable to common stockholders:
Basic	$ 16.45	$ 4.27	$ 1.48
Diluted	$ 16.38	$ 4.24	$ 1.47
Weighted-average common shares outstanding:
Basic	203.3	215.0	214.9
Diluted	204.2	216.2	215.2

CF Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS - USD ($) $ in Millions	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 2,323	$ 1,628
Accounts receivable—net	582	497
Inventories	474	408
Prepaid income taxes	215	4
Other current assets	79	56
Total current assets	3,673	2,593
Property, plant and equipment—net	6,437	7,081
Investment in affiliate	74	82
Goodwill	2,089	2,091
Operating lease right-of-use assets	254	243
Other assets	786	285
Total assets	13,313	12,375
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable and accrued expenses	575	565
Income taxes payable	3	24
Customer advances	229	700
Current operating lease liabilities	93	89
Other current liabilities	95	54
Total current liabilities	995	1,432
Long-term debt	2,965	3,465
Deferred income taxes	958	1,029
Operating lease liabilities	167	162
Other liabilities	375	251
Stockholders’ equity:
Preferred stock—$0.01 par value, 50,000,000 shares authorized	0	0
Common stock—$0.01 par value, 500,000,000 shares authorized, 2022—195,604,404 shares issued and 2021—207,603,940 shares issued	2	2
Paid-in capital	1,412	1,375
Retained earnings	3,867	2,088
Treasury stock—at cost, 2022—0 shares and 2021—27,962 shares	0	(2)
Accumulated other comprehensive loss	(230)	(257)
Total stockholders’ equity	5,051	3,206
Noncontrolling interest	2,802	2,830
Total equity	7,853	6,036
Total liabilities and equity	$ 13,313	$ 12,375