Confluent, Inc. Stock Research

Market Summary

USD20.82+0.02

Market Closed

0.10%

CFLT Alerts

4 major insider sales recently.
Big jump in Revenue (Y/Y)
Losses in recent quarter

CFLT Stock Price

CFLT RSI Chart

CFLT Valuation

Market Cap

5.9B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

-12.99

Price/Sales (Trailing)

10.03

EV/EBITDA

-14.87

Price/Free Cashflow

-36.4

CFLT Price/Sales (Trailing)

CFLT Profitability

EBT Margin

-76.16%

Return on Equity

-58.81%

Return on Assets

-19.3%

Free Cashflow Yield

-2.75%

CFLT Fundamentals

CFLT Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

585.9M

Revenue Y/Y

40.64%

Revenue Q/Q

11.16%

CFLT Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

-452.6M

Earnings Y/Y

7.48%

Earnings Q/Q

8.76%

Price Action

52 Week Range

16.4844.97

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-3.7%

Last 30 days

-14.0%

Last 90 days

-0.8%

Trailing 12 Months

-47.5%

CFLT Financial Health

Current Ratio

5.18

Debt/Equity

1.41

Debt/Cashflow

-0.15

CFLT Investor Care

Shares Dilution (1Y)

8.92%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

-1.62

Financials for Confluent

Income Statement (Last 12 Months)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	9.1%	585,944,000	537,206,000	488,044,000	436,975,000	387,864,000
Gross Profit	11.9%	383,529,000	342,594,000	309,313,000	277,744,000	250,572,000
Operating Expenses	5.3%	846,203,000	803,963,000	746,533,000	683,702,000	590,192,000
S&GA Expenses	5.1%	456,452,000	434,393,000	407,072,000	367,524,000	319,331,000
R&D Expenses	6.1%	264,041,000	248,918,000	226,520,000	195,273,000	161,925,000
EBITDA	2.6%	-438,658,000	-450,367,000	-432,250,000	-403,207,000	-335,995,000
EBITDA Margin	10.7%	-0.75	-0.84	-0.89	-0.92	-0.87
Earnings Before Taxes	2.3%	-446,258,000	-456,609,000	-437,410,000	-407,289,000	-339,627,000
EBT Margin	10.4%	-0.76	-0.85	-0.90	-0.93	-0.88
Net Income	1.9%	-452,551,000	-461,106,000	-440,723,000	-411,262,000	-342,801,000
Net Income Margin	10.0%	-0.77	-0.86	-0.90	-0.94	-0.88
Free Cahsflow	-1.8%	-161,454,000	-158,610,000	-134,406,000	-143,946,000	-108,660,000

Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	1.3%	2,345	2,314	2,325	2,318	2,343
Current Assets	1.1%	2,198	2,175	2,192	2,195	2,226
Cash Equivalents	-13.4%	436	503	530	1,048	1,376
Net PPE	13.4%	29.00	26.00	22.00	18.00	14.00
Liabilities	3.0%	1,575	1,530	1,528	1,481	1,492
Current Liabilities	12.1%	424	379	376	331	348
Long Term Debt	0.1%	1,084	1,083	1,082	1,081	-
Shareholder's Equity	-1.8%	769	784	797	836	850
Retained Earnings	-9.7%	-1,201	-1,095	-979	-861	-748
Additional Paid-In Capital	4.6%	1,980	1,892	1,786	1,703	1,600
Accumulated Depreciation	25.8%	10.00	8.00	6.00	5.00	-
Shares Outstanding	1.4%	282	278	273	-	-

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	-2.1%	-157	-154	-130	-140	-105
Share Based Compensation	6.9%	278	260	234	200	156
Cashflow From Investing	14.5%	-865	-1,012	-1,267	-726	-400
Cashflow From Financing	-92.4%	82.00	1,087	1,067	1,870	1,845

Risks for CFLT

What is the probability of a big loss on CFLT?

75%

Probability that Confluent stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

73.9%

Probability that Confluent stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

63.0%

Probability that Confluent stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does CFLT drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Confluent was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for CFLT

Cumulative Returns on CFLT

Which funds bought or sold CFLT recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-23	MetLife Investment Management, LLC	reduced	-2.56	-16,170	166,978	-%
2023-03-23	ETF MANAGERS GROUP, LLC	added	21.4	50,384	424,384	0.02%
2023-03-17	American Portfolios Advisors	new	-	4,754	4,754	-%
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	added	122	389,086	747,086	-%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	unchanged	-	-	3,000	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	reduced	-	-79,063	1,144,940	-%
2023-02-27	Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P.	added	0.01	-123,787	1,795,210	-%
2023-02-24	NATIXIS	sold off	-100	-1,781,000	-	-%
2023-02-21	MACQUARIE GROUP LTD	new	-	1,570,000	1,570,000	-%
2023-02-21	NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO	reduced	-58.9	-7,863	5,137	-%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying CFLT calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own CFLT

No. of Funds

Confluent News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Confluent

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 14, 2023	gilder gagnon howe & co llc	0.8%	1,159,936	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2023	kreps edward jay	9.5%	27,313,289	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2023	price t rowe associates inc /md/	6.9%	10,538,252	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2023	sc us (ttgp), ltd.	4.7%	7,589,341	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2023	benchmark capital partners viii, l.p.	6.3%	10,259,605	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2023	altimeter capital management, lp	8.45%	12,995,374	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2023	coatue management llc	0.6%	964,582	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2023	lone pine capital llc	0%	0	SC 13G/A
Feb 13, 2023	index ventures vii (jersey), l.p.	8.7%	14,681,573	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	jpmorgan chase & co	10.0%	15,439,513	SC 13G/A

CFLT Fair Value

Recent SEC filings of Confluent

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 23, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 23, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 08, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 02, 2023	40-APP/A	40-APP/A
Mar 01, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 01, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 01, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 01, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 01, 2023	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for CFLT

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-21	Liu Ying Christina	sold	-9,032	22.58	-400	chief accounting officer
2023-03-21	Verbowski Chad	sold	-134,328	22.58	-5,949	chief technology officer
2023-03-06	Kreps Edward Jay	sold	-6,080,080	26.1509	-232,500	chief executive officer
2023-03-06	Kreps Edward Jay	acquired	-	-	232,500	chief executive officer
2023-03-02	Tomlinson Steffan	sold	-118,830	23.2	-5,122	chief financial officer
2023-02-27	Schultz Erica	acquired	-	-	343,018	president, field operations
2023-02-27	Tomlinson Steffan	acquired	-	-	211,599	chief financial officer
2023-02-27	Buscemi Stephanie	acquired	-	-	80,710	chief marketing officer
2023-02-27	Verbowski Chad	acquired	-	-	141,242	svp of engineering
2023-02-27	Liu Ying Christina	acquired	-	-	100,887	chief accounting officer

About Confluent

Edward J. Kreps

www.confluent.io

1980

Confluent, Inc. operates a data streaming platform in the United States and internationally. It offers Confluent Cloud, a managed cloud-native service for connecting and processing data; and Confluent Platform, an enterprise-grade self-managed software that connects and processes data in real-time with the foundational platform for data in motion. It also provides Kafka Connect that enables to build connectors to integrate Apache Kafka with other apps and data systems; ksqlDB, a database for stream processing applications; and stream governance, a solution that is designed for the intricacies of streaming data, which allows teams to expand usage of real-time data without bypassing requirements for risk management and regulatory compliance. In addition, it also offers training and professional services. The company was formerly known as Infinitem, Inc. and changed its name to Confluent, Inc. in September 2014. Confluent, Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.

CFLT Income Statement

2022-12-31

Consolidated Statements of Operations - USD ($) $ in Thousands	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
Revenue:
Total revenue	$ 585,944	$ 387,864	$ 236,577
Cost of revenue:
Total cost of revenue	202,415	137,292	75,476
Gross profit	383,529	250,572	161,101
Operating expenses:
Research and development	264,041	161,925	105,399
Sales and marketing	456,452	319,331	166,361
General and administrative	125,710	108,936	122,516
Total operating expenses	846,203	590,192	394,276
Operating loss	(462,674)	(339,620)	(233,175)
Other income (expense), net	16,416	(7)	3,140
Loss before income taxes	(446,258)	(339,627)	(230,035)
Provision for (benefit from) income taxes	6,293	3,174	(207)
Net loss	$ (452,551)	$ (342,801)	$ (229,828)
Net loss per share, basic	$ (1.62)	$ (1.82)	$ (2.21)
Net loss per share, diluted	$ (1.62)	$ (1.82)	$ (2.21)
Weighted-average shares used to compute net loss per share, basic	280,080,357	188,627,720	104,218,082
Weighted-average shares used to compute net loss per share, diluted	280,080,357	188,627,720	104,218,082
Subscription [Member]
Revenue:
Total revenue	$ 535,009	$ 347,099	$ 208,633
Cost of revenue:
Total cost of revenue	146,324	94,860	49,283
Services [Member]
Revenue:
Total revenue	50,935	40,765	27,944
Cost of revenue:
Total cost of revenue	$ 56,091	$ 42,432	$ 26,193

CFLT Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 435,781	$ 1,375,932
Marketable securities	1,491,044	640,085
Accounts receivable, net	178,188	137,491
Deferred contract acquisition costs	35,883	27,646
Prepaid expenses and other current assets	57,229	44,919
Total current assets	2,198,125	2,226,073
Property and equipment, net	29,089	14,428
Operating lease right-of-use assets	29,478	37,281
Deferred contract acquisition costs, non-current	68,401	51,178
Other assets, non-current	19,756	13,769
Total assets	2,344,849	2,342,729
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable	21,439	7,591
Accrued expenses and other liabilities	102,755	98,974
Operating lease liabilities	7,375	9,236
Deferred revenue	290,185	220,920
Liability for early exercise of unvested stock options	2,576	11,467
Total current liabilities	424,330	348,188
Operating lease liabilities, non-current	25,136	31,645
Deferred revenue, non-current	32,644	25,557
Convertible senior notes, net	1,084,500	1,080,701
Other liabilities, non-current	8,762	6,357
Total liabilities	1,575,372	1,492,448
Commitments and contingencies (Note 8)
Stockholders' equity (deficit):
Preferred stock, par value of $0.00001per share 1,000,000,000 shares authorized as of December 31, 2022 and December 31,2021; 0 shares issued and outstanding as of December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021	0	0
Additional paid-in capital	1,980,335	1,599,962
Accumulated other comprehensive loss	(9,456)	(830)
Accumulated deficit	(1,201,405)	(748,854)
Total stockholder's equity	769,477	850,281
Total liabilities and stockholder's equity	2,344,849	2,342,729
Class A Common Stock [Member]
Stockholders' equity (deficit):
Common Stock, Value	2	1
Class B Common Stock [Member]
Stockholders' equity (deficit):
Common Stock, Value	$ 1	$ 2