Commercial Metals Co Stock Research

Market Summary

USD44.89+0.39

Market Closed

0.88%

CMC Alerts

Big fall in earnings (Y/Y)

CMC Stock Price

CMC RSI Chart

CMC Valuation

Market Cap

5.3B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

5.05

Price/Sales (Trailing)

0.57

EV/EBITDA

3.68

Price/Free Cashflow

8.01

CMC Price/Sales (Trailing)

CMC Profitability

EBT Margin

17.38%

Return on Equity

34.77%

Return on Assets

19.86%

Free Cashflow Yield

12.49%

CMC Fundamentals

CMC Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

9.2B

Revenue Y/Y

0.45%

Revenue Q/Q

-9.4%

CMC Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

1.0B

Earnings Y/Y

-53.08%

Earnings Q/Q

-31.3%

Price Action

52 Week Range

31.3658.09

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-0.4%

Last 30 days

-0.8%

Last 90 days

-13.9%

Trailing 12 Months

11.8%

CMC Financial Health

Current Ratio

2.99

Debt/Equity

0.31

Debt/Cashflow

0.96

CMC Investor Care

Dividend Yield

1.34%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

0.6

Buy Backs (1Y)

3.50%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

8.65

Peers (Alternatives to Commercial Metals)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
SCCO	61.8B	10.1B	-10.90%	12.75%	23.34	6.15	-9.74%	-22.37%
FCX	60.3B	21.6B	-6.73%	-8.68%	13.46	2.65	-12.33%	-16.51%
NUE	38.3B	39.7B	-5.79%	2.78%	5.03	0.92	-0.58%	-16.70%
NEM	32.3B	11.6B	-13.72%	-40.31%	-61.41	2.79	-6.48%	-149.86%
STLD	16.5B	22.3B	-6.37%	13.92%	4.26	0.74	20.92%	19.49%
MID-CAP
CLF	7.4B	22.3B	-3.23%	-38.79%	14.22	0.33	37.87%	-86.51%
CMC	5.3B	9.2B	-0.82%	11.75%	5.05	0.57	16.55%	15.99%
X	4.9B	20.3B	-7.54%	-15.08%	1.42	0.22	-7.07%	-62.92%
ATI	4.5B	4.0B	-6.89%	29.39%	26.45	1.11	37.35%	28250.00%
WOR	2.8B	5.2B	-0.34%	27.28%	13.38	0.54	10.80%	-50.22%
CRS	2.2B	2.4B	-4.93%	31.88%	108.59	0.94	39.05%	118.84%
SMALL-CAP
TMST	802.0M	1.3B	5.55%	-25.57%	3.67	0.55	-4.40%	-78.62%
SXC	721.5M	2.0B	-8.64%	-11.95%	7.17	0.37	31.55%	55.14%
HAYN	578.8M	559.4M	-1.58%	16.68%	11.12	1.03	39.89%	222.80%
USAP	104.9M	220.4M	20.00%	46.21%	-15.05	0.48	32.42%	-423.28%

Financials for Commercial Metals

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2023Q1	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1
Revenue	0.1%	9,168	9,159	8,913	8,537	7,866
S&GA Expenses	3.9%	600	578	545	526	521
Costs and Expenses	3.7%	7,850	7,567	7,398	7,168	6,734
EBITDA	5.1%	1,830	1,741	1,586	-	-
EBITDA Margin	2.3%	0.20*	0.20*	0.19*	-	-
Earnings Before Taxes	-17.2%	1,318	1,592	1,515	1,369	1,133
EBT Margin	2.2%	0.17*	0.17*	0.16*	-	-
Interest Expenses	-3.9%	51.00	53.00	51.00	48.00	47.00
Net Income	-16.3%	1,043	1,246	1,217	1,081	899
Net Income Margin	-0.4%	0.14*	0.14*	0.13*	-	-
Free Cahsflow	113.3%	534	250	25.00	-	-

Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2023Q1	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1
Assets	3.4%	6,485	6,274	6,237	6,104	5,504
Current Assets	1.7%	3,278	3,224	3,441	3,444	3,490
Cash Equivalents	3.6%	608	587	679	537	1,000
Inventory	3.8%	1,144	1,103	1,170	1,346	1,142
Net PPE	6.4%	2,160	2,029	1,911	1,808	1,649
Goodwill	0.5%	279	277	249	254	66.00
Liabilities	0.4%	2,702	2,690	2,951	2,962	2,634
Current Liabilities	-1.1%	1,066	1,078	1,357	1,391	825
Long Term Debt	0.6%	1,100	1,093	1,113	1,115	1,446
LT Debt, Current	-	389	-	-	-	-
Shareholder's Equity	5.5%	3,783	3,584	3,286	3,142	2,870
Retained Earnings	4.5%	3,717	3,555	3,312	3,041	2,745
Additional Paid-In Capital	3.7%	374	361	383	375	366
Accumulated Depreciation	-	1,974	-	-	-	-
Shares Outstanding	-0.1%	117	117	117	120	121
Minority Interest	0%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2023Q1	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1
Cashflow From Operations	15.1%	1,205	1,047	700	376	282
Share Based Compensation	1.3%	55.00	54.00	47.00	46.00	48.00
Cashflow From Investing	-42.7%	-1,158	-811	-684	-586	26.00
Cashflow From Financing	-539.8%	-442	-69.20	165	303	324
Dividend Payments	2.5%	71.00	70.00	68.00	65.00	63.00
Buy Backs	2.7%	211	206	162	56.00	17.00

Risks for CMC

What is the probability of a big loss on CMC?

73.5%

Probability that Commercial Metals stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

40%

Probability that Commercial Metals stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

16.9%

Probability that Commercial Metals stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does CMC drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Commercial Metals was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for CMC

Cumulative Returns on CMC

13.8%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

17.1%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

16.4%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

39.9%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for CMC?

FIve years rolling returns for Commercial Metals.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold CMC recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-05-24	Verity Asset Management, Inc.	reduced	-0.88	5,826	1,687,250	1.01%
2023-05-23	ROYCE & ASSOCIATES LP	reduced	-26.07	-3,322,460	9,888,750	0.10%
2023-05-23	Toroso Investments, LLC	new	-	1,170,000	1,170,000	0.02%
2023-05-22	AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC	added	0.25	264,836	19,393,800	0.01%
2023-05-22	PUTNAM INVESTMENTS LLC	sold off	-100	-3,531,600	-	-%
2023-05-22	EMC Capital Management	unchanged	-	2,000	197,000	0.17%
2023-05-22	Raleigh Capital Management Inc.	added	30.95	667	2,695	-%
2023-05-19	Coppell Advisory Solutions LLC	sold off	-100	-3,864	-	-%
2023-05-18	JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	added	6.81	4,172,000	55,418,000	0.01%
2023-05-18	CENTAURUS FINANCIAL, INC.	added	10.88	46,000	421,000	0.03%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying CMC calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own CMC

No. of Funds

CMC Alerts

Big fall in earnings (Y/Y)

Commercial Metals News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Commercial Metals

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 09, 2023	fmr llc	-	0	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	10.54%	12,372,451	SC 13G/A
Feb 01, 2023	state street corp	4.92%	5,770,248	SC 13G/A
Jan 26, 2023	blackrock inc.	13.5%	15,830,502	SC 13G/A
Jan 20, 2023	blackrock inc.	13.5%	15,830,502	SC 13G
Feb 10, 2022	state street corp	5.04%	6,126,119	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2022	vanguard group inc	10.76%	13,084,312	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2022	fmr llc	-	0	SC 13G/A
Feb 08, 2022	dimensional fund advisors lp	6.2%	7,578,477	SC 13G/A
Jan 27, 2022	blackrock inc.	12.2%	14,797,743	SC 13G/A

CMC Fair Value

Commercial Metals fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Commercial Metals for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	131.99 194.03%	173.82 287.21%	258.95 476.85%	355.41 691.74%	424.67 846.02%
Current Inflation	121.34 170.31%	157.26 250.32%	229.25 410.69%	310.68 592.09%	368.59 721.10%
Very High Inflation	108.22 141.08%	137.26 205.77%	194.28 332.79%	258.71 476.32%	303.94 577.08%

Historical Commercial Metals Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Commercial Metals

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
May 25, 2023	SD	SD
Apr 14, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Apr 14, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Apr 14, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Apr 12, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 23, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Mar 23, 2023	10-Q	Quarterly Report
Mar 22, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Mar 22, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 22, 2023	3	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for CMC

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-04-12	RAISS SARAH E.	acquired	2,554	47.3	54.00	-
2023-04-12	McPherson John R	acquired	851	47.3	18.00	-
2023-04-12	Avril-Groves Vicki L	acquired	4,351	47.3	92.00	-
2023-04-10	MATT PETER R	back to issuer	-	-	-2,492	president
2023-04-10	MATT PETER R	acquired	-	-	35,714	president
2023-03-21	WETHERBEE ROBERT S	acquired	-	-	2,381	-
2023-02-02	RAISS SARAH E.	acquired	2,521	56.04	45.00	-
2023-02-02	Avril-Groves Vicki L	acquired	4,371	56.04	78.00	-
2023-02-02	McPherson John R	acquired	840	56.04	15.00	-
2023-01-13	SLOAN LINDSAY L	gifted	-	-	-100	vp & chief accounting officer

About Commercial Metals

Barbara R. Smith

www.cmc.com

11100

Commercial Metals Company manufactures, recycles, and fabricates steel and metal products, and related materials and services in the United States, Poland, China, and internationally. The company processes and sells ferrous and nonferrous scrap metals to steel mills and foundries, aluminum sheet and ingot manufacturers, brass and bronze ingot makers, copper refineries and mills, secondary lead smelters, specialty steel mills, high temperature alloy manufacturers, and other consumers. It also manufactures and sells finished long steel products, including rebar, merchant bar, light structural, and other special sections, as well as semi-finished billets for re-rolling and forging applications. In addition, the company provides fabricated steel products used to reinforce concrete primarily in the construction of commercial and non-commercial buildings, hospitals, convention centers, industrial plants, power plants, highways, bridges, arenas, stadiums, and dams; sells and rents construction-related products and equipment to concrete installers and other businesses; and manufactures and sells strength bars for the truck trailer industry, special bar steels for the energy market, and armor plates for military vehicles. Further, it manufactures rebars, merchant bars, and wire rods; and sells fabricated rebars, wire meshes, fabricated meshes, assembled rebar cages, and other fabricated rebar by-products to fabricators, manufacturers, distributors, and construction companies. The company was founded in 1915 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

CMC Income Statement

2023-02-28

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF EARNINGS (UNAUDITED) - USD ($) $ in Thousands	3 Months Ended		6 Months Ended
	Feb. 28, 2023	Feb. 28, 2022	Feb. 28, 2023	Feb. 28, 2022
Income Statement [Abstract]
Net sales	$ 2,018,003	$ 2,008,888	$ 4,245,316	$ 3,990,689
Costs and operating expenses (income):
Cost of goods sold	1,621,763	1,614,965	3,341,177	3,201,375
Selling, general and administrative expenses	150,427	127,985	306,550	251,563
Interest expense	9,945	12,011	22,990	23,046
Asset impairments	36	1,228	45	1,228
Loss on debt extinguishment	(27)	(16,052)	(178)	(16,052)
Loss (gain) on sale of assets	315	(273,099)	387	(274,082)
Costs and operating expenses	1,782,513	1,499,142	3,671,327	3,219,182
Earnings before income taxes	235,490	509,746	573,989	771,507
Income taxes	55,641	126,432	132,366	155,304
Net earnings	$ 179,849	$ 383,314	$ 441,623	$ 616,203
Earnings per share:
Basic (in USD per share)	$ 1.53	$ 3.16	$ 3.77	$ 5.08
Diluted (in USD per share)	$ 1.51	$ 3.12	$ 3.71	$ 5.02
Average basic shares outstanding (shares)	117,224,517	121,458,196	117,249,266	121,293,030
Average diluted shares outstanding (shares)	118,723,259	122,852,410	118,985,098	122,747,981

CMC Balance Sheet

2023-02-28

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS (UNAUDITED) - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Feb. 28, 2023	Aug. 31, 2022
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 603,966	$ 672,596
Accounts receivable (less allowance for doubtful accounts of $4,928 and $4,990)	1,263,547	1,358,907
Inventories, net	1,144,268	1,169,696
Prepaid and other current assets	266,365	240,269
Total current assets	3,278,146	3,441,468
Property, plant and equipment, net	2,159,730	1,910,871
Intangible assets, net	248,723	257,409
Goodwill	278,711	249,009
Other noncurrent assets	519,541	378,270
Total assets	6,484,851	6,237,027
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable	422,814	428,055
Accrued expenses and other payables	378,572	540,136
Current maturities of long-term debt and short-term borrowings	264,762	388,796
Total current liabilities	1,066,148	1,356,987
Deferred income taxes	303,367	250,302
Other noncurrent liabilities	232,415	230,060
Long-term debt	1,099,728	1,113,249
Total liabilities	2,701,658	2,950,598
Commitments and contingencies (Note 14)
Stockholders' equity:
Common stock, par value $0.01 per share; authorized 200,000,000 shares; issued 129,060,664 shares; outstanding 117,205,307 and 117,496,053 shares	1,290	1,290
Additional paid-in capital	374,440	382,767
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)	24,496	(114,451)
Retained earnings	3,716,537	3,312,438
Less treasury stock 11,855,357 and 11,564,611 shares at cost	(333,802)	(295,847)
Stockholders' equity	3,782,961	3,286,197
Stockholders' equity attributable to non-controlling interests	232	232
Total stockholders' equity	3,783,193	3,286,429
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity	$ 6,484,851	$ 6,237,027