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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Stock Research

CMG

1708.29USD+36.12(+2.16%)Market Closed

Market Summary

USD1708.29+36.12
Market Closed
2.16%

CMG Alerts

CMG Stock Price

CMG RSI Chart

CMG Valuation

Market Cap

47.4B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

52.77

Price/Sales (Trailing)

5.49

EV/EBITDA

32.05

Price/Free Cashflow

56.21

CMG Price/Sales (Trailing)

CMG Profitability

EBT Margin

13.68%

Return on Equity

37.97%

Return on Assets

12.98%

Free Cashflow Yield

1.78%

CMG Fundamentals

CMG Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

8.6B

Revenue Y/Y

11.22%

Revenue Q/Q

-1.78%

CMG Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

899.1M

Earnings Y/Y

67.62%

Earnings Q/Q

-12.99%

Price Action

52 Week Range

1196.281754.56
(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

5.2%

Last 30 days

15.1%

Last 90 days

23.1%

Trailing 12 Months

8.0%

CMG Financial Health

Current Ratio

1.28

CMG Investor Care

Buy Backs (1Y)

1.34%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

32.04

Peers (Alternatives to Chipotle Mexican Grill)

View All Peers In Detail
NameMkt Capsorted ascendingRevenuePrice %, 1MReturns, 1YP/EP/SRev 1-YrInc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
205.5B
23.2B
6.43% 15.63%
33.26
8.86
-0.17% -18.13%
119.6B
32.9B
2.66% 17.86%
36.01
3.63
8.41% -24.41%
47.4B
8.6B
15.05% 7.98%
52.77
5.49
14.41% 37.69%
37.2B
6.8B
4.66% 13.05%
28.08
5.44
3.92% -15.87%
18.9B
10.0B
8.01% 20.04%
20.84
1.9
16.23% -1.35%
MID-CAP
9.3B
17.0B
-3.58% -3.93%
41.24
0.55
27.66% 584.49%
7.2B
4.0B
6.07% 29.06%
26.82
1.8
15.91% 10.00%
5.5B
357.5M
7.43% 57.21%
103.78
15.37
26.56% 24.12%
4.6B
2.1B
-1.89% -0.86%
26.17
2.21
10.46% -11.49%
2.2B
900.5M
-2.77% -18.28%
-90.46
2.42
21.70% -178.35%
SMALL-CAP
1.8B
1.7B
-7.84% -25.07%
14.36
1.02
61.79% 371.82%
679.1M
1.3B
-9.47% 2.97%
166.6
0.53
18.11% 213.03%
645.2M
422.2M
-2.32% 32.78%
30.94
1.53
6.49% -30.89%
633.1M
456.4M
-5.34% -22.01%
8.47
1.39
14.63% -4.30%
525.6M
505.9M
-13.08% -26.60%
13.61
1.04
17.88% -8.64%

Financials for Chipotle Mexican Grill

Income Statement (Last 12 Months)
(In Millions)
* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Revenue2.6%8,6358,4158,1477,8267,547
  S&GA Expenses-4.2%564589594599607
Costs and Expenses1.1%7,4747,3927,2216,9926,742
EBITDA10.8%1,4681,3251,2161,107-
EBITDA Margin8.0%0.17*0.16*0.15*0.14*-
Earnings Before Taxes13.0%1,1821,046945843813
EBT Margin10.1%0.14*0.12*0.12*0.11*-
Net Income11.2%899809756684653
Net Income Margin8.3%0.10*0.10*0.09*0.09*-
Free Cahsflow-6.5%844903862807-
Balance Sheet
(In Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Assets1.6%6,9286,8176,5456,4676,653
  Current Assets9.1%1,1761,0771,0461,0961,382
    Cash Equivalents4.7%384367521616815
  Inventory5.7%36.0034.0029.0030.0033.00
  Net PPE4.2%1,9511,8721,8131,7801,769
  Goodwill0%22.0022.0022.0022.0022.00
Liabilities1.5%4,5594,4904,3914,3334,356
  Current Liabilities12.7%922818832834874
Shareholder's Equity1.7%2,3682,3272,1542,1342,297
  Retained Earnings4.9%4,8284,6054,3474,0873,929
  Additional Paid-In Capital1.2%1,8291,8081,7821,7531,729
Shares Outstanding-0.5%28.0028.0028.00--
Cashflow (Last 12 Months)
(In Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Cashflow From Operations-2.7%1,3231,3601,2891,2591,282
  Share Based Compensation-14.8%98.00115126145176
Cashflow From Investing-3.1%-830-805-533-538-522
Cashflow From Financing-2.7%-929-904-898-795-548
  Buy Backs4.4%830796785673466

Risks for CMG

What is the probability of a big loss on CMG?

71.2%


Probability that Chipotle Mexican Grill stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

33.5%


Probability that Chipotle Mexican Grill stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

2.7%


Probability that Chipotle Mexican Grill stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.
*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does CMG drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Chipotle Mexican Grill was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for CMG

Cumulative Returns on CMG

18.1%


10-Year Cumulative Returns

20.4%


7-Year Cumulative Returns

39.5%


5-Year Cumulative Returns

37.7%


3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for CMG?

FIve years rolling returns for Chipotle Mexican Grill.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold CMG recently?

View All Details
Datesorted ascendingFund NameType% Chg$ Change$ Held% Portfolio
2023-03-23
MetLife Investment Management, LLC
reduced
-2.05
-1,225,600
11,586,900
0.09%
2023-03-23
ETF MANAGERS GROUP, LLC
added
3.94
-26,017
622,983
0.03%
2023-03-17
American Portfolios Advisors
reduced
-7.63
19,089
327,602
0.01%
2023-03-15
B. Riley Wealth Advisors, Inc.
added
5.01
-37,283
1,162,720
0.03%
2023-03-10
VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC
reduced
-24.64
-19,754,300
45,176,700
0.05%
2023-03-10
MATHER GROUP, LLC.
sold off
-100
-207,000
-
-%
2023-03-07
Great Lakes Retirement, Inc.
new
-
932,683
932,683
0.24%
2023-03-06
Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.
reduced
-3.06
-294,000
2,503,000
0.01%
2023-03-03
TIAA, FSB
reduced
-15.36
-126,066
450,934
-%
2023-03-02
LORING WOLCOTT & COOLIDGE FIDUCIARY ADVISORS LLP/MA
new
-
642,406
642,406
0.01%

1–10 of 46

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying CMG calls or puts?
Calls
Puts
Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?
Net Call Options
No. of funds that own CMG
No. of Funds

Chipotle Mexican Grill News

MarketWatch

McDonald's Corp. stock rises Friday, still underperforms market.

MarketWatch,
14 hours ago

Investor's Business Daily

Nasdaq

Schedule 13G FIlings of Chipotle Mexican Grill

Date FiledName of FilerPercent of ClassNo. of SharesForm Type
Feb 14, 2023
price t rowe associates inc /md/
6.2%
1,720,265
SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023
vanguard group inc
9.59%
2,658,715
SC 13G/A
Jan 31, 2023
blackrock inc.
7.2%
1,982,268
SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2022
price t rowe associates inc /md/
7.8%
2,226,370
SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2022
vanguard group inc
8.84%
2,485,841
SC 13G/A
Feb 01, 2022
blackrock inc.
7.0%
1,969,178
SC 13G/A
Feb 16, 2021
price t rowe associates inc /md/
8.5%
2,403,185
SC 13G
Feb 10, 2021
renaissance technologies llc
2.12%
593,242
SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2021
vanguard group inc
10.49%
2,935,032
SC 13G/A
Feb 08, 2021
fmr llc
-
0
SC 13G/A

CMG Fair Value

Chipotle Mexican Grill fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.
Fair ValueVery PessimisticPessimisticBase CaseOptimisticVery Optimistic
Very Low Inflation

313.73

-81.63%

489.61

-71.34%

760.17

-55.50%

1025.16

-39.99%

1371.71

-19.70%
Current Inflation

327.33

-80.84%

404.50

-76.32%

544.39

-68.13%

686.79

-59.80%

857.17

-49.82%
Very High Inflation

260.05

-84.78%

381.84

-77.65%

563.12

-67.04%

742.08

-56.56%

974.41

-42.96%

Historical Chipotle Mexican Grill Fair Value Estimates


Very Pessimistic Case
Pessimistic Case
Fair Value
Optimistic Case
Very Optimistic Case
Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Chipotle Mexican Grill

View All Filings
Date Filed Form Type Document
Mar 14, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 16, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 16, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 16, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 16, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 16, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 16, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 16, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 16, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 14, 2023
SC 13G/A
Major Ownership Report

Latest Insider Trading transactions for CMG

Filter Transactions
Datesorted ascendingNameBuy/Sell$ ValueAvg. Price# SharesTitle
2023-03-13
Niccol Brian R
sold
-1,523,530
1,537
-991
chairman, ceo
2023-03-13
Niccol Brian R
sold (taxes)
-534,995
1,550
-345
chairman, ceo
2023-03-13
Niccol Brian R
acquired
534,667
400
1,336
chairman, ceo
2023-02-16
Niccol Brian R
sold
-9,281,460
1,646
-5,636
chairman, ceo
2023-02-15
Garner Curtis E
acquired
-
-
3,571
chief technology officer
2023-02-15
Schalow Laurie
acquired
-
-
1,113
chief corp affairs, food sft
2023-02-15
Boatwright Scott
sold (taxes)
-2,835,150
1,644
-1,724
chief restaurant officer
2023-02-15
Hartung Jack
sold (taxes)
-2,652,610
1,644
-1,613
chief financial & admn officer
2023-02-15
Brandt Christopher W
acquired
-
-
2,976
chief marketing officer
2023-02-15
Niccol Brian R
sold (taxes)
-10,306,200
1,644
-6,267
chairman, ceo

1–10 of 50

Brian R. Niccol
65535
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. As of February 15, 2022, it owned and operated approximately 3,000 restaurants in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and rest of Europe. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.

CMG Income Statement

2022-09-30
Condensed Consolidated Statements Of Income And Comprehensive Income - USD ($)
shares in Thousands, $ in Thousands
3 Months Ended9 Months Ended
Sep. 30, 2022
Sep. 30, 2021
Sep. 30, 2022
Sep. 30, 2021
Total revenue$ 2,220,175$ 1,952,315$ 6,454,053$ 5,586,428
Restaurant operating costs (exclusive of depreciation and amortization shown separately below):    
Food, beverage and packaging662,540591,3321,963,3941,688,481
Labor557,178502,7571,639,0441,400,932
Occupancy115,826104,223341,777309,422
Other operating costs322,085294,650970,261876,602
General and administrative expenses140,896145,930429,118447,077
Depreciation and amortization71,41663,191212,814188,395
Pre-opening costs7,6185,89418,21914,280
Impairment, closure costs, and asset disposals6,3634,65815,35414,592
Total operating expenses1,883,9221,712,6355,589,9814,939,781
Income from operations336,253239,680864,072646,647
Interest and other income (expense), net3,712(126)14,071(1,443)
Income before income taxes339,965239,554878,143645,204
Provision for income taxes(82,827)(35,120)(202,769)(125,695)
Net income$ 257,138$ 204,434$ 675,374$ 519,509
Earnings per share:    
Basic$ 9.26$ 7.26$ 24.20$ 18.46
Diluted$ 9.20$ 7.18$ 24.02$ 18.22
Weighted-average common shares outstanding:    
Basic27,77328,15027,90728,137
Diluted27,95628,47528,11628,520
Other comprehensive income (loss), net of income taxes:    
Foreign currency translation adjustments$ (2,257)$ (956)$ (3,542)$ (914)
Comprehensive income254,881203,478671,832518,595
Food and Beverage [Member]    
Total revenue2,202,3361,932,4096,394,0945,517,764
Delivery Service [Member]    
Total revenue$ 17,839$ 19,906$ 59,959$ 68,664

CMG Balance Sheet

2022-09-30
Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($)
$ in Thousands
Sep. 30, 2022
Dec. 31, 2021
Current assets:  
Cash and cash equivalents$ 366,623$ 815,374
Accounts receivable, net71,27699,599
Inventory33,75232,826
Prepaid expenses and other current assets76,43978,756
Income tax receivable112,06494,064
Investments417,278260,945
Total current assets1,077,4321,381,564
Leasehold improvements, property and equipment, net1,871,6231,769,278
Long-term investments442,620274,311
Restricted cash30,97430,856
Operating lease assets3,309,0513,118,294
Other assets63,79856,716
Goodwill21,93921,939
Total assets6,817,4376,652,958
Current liabilities:  
Accounts payable167,842163,161
Accrued payroll and benefits128,495162,405
Accrued liabilities156,455173,052
Unearned revenue133,118156,351
Current operating lease liabilities231,947218,713
Total current liabilities817,857873,682
Commitments and contingencies (Note 10)
Long-term operating lease liabilities3,497,2213,301,601
Deferred income tax liabilities133,255141,765
Other liabilities41,72338,536
Total liabilities4,490,0564,355,584
Shareholders' equity:  
Preferred stock, $0.01 par value, 600,000 shares authorized, no shares issued as of September 30, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively00
Common stock, $0.01 par value, 230,000 shares authorized, 37,306 and 37,132 shares issued as of September 30, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively373371
Additional paid-in capital1,807,9381,729,312
Treasury stock, at cost, 9,555 and 9,052 common shares as of September 30, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively(4,076,555)(3,356,102)
Accumulated other comprehensive loss(8,896)(5,354)
Retained earnings4,604,5213,929,147
Total shareholders' equity2,327,3812,297,374
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity$ 6,817,437$ 6,652,958