Carvana Co Stock Research

Market Summary

USD8.19-0.16

Delayed

-1.92%

CVNA Alerts

Big fall in Revenue (Y/Y)
Big fall in earnings (Y/Y)
Losses in recent quarter

CVNA Stock Price

CVNA RSI Chart

CVNA Valuation

Market Cap

867.0M

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

-0.55

Price/Sales (Trailing)

0.06

Price/Free Cashflow

-0.47

CVNA Price/Sales (Trailing)

CVNA Profitability

Return on Equity

150.71%

Return on Assets

-18.25%

Free Cashflow Yield

-211.77%

CVNA Fundamentals

CVNA Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

13.6B

Revenue Y/Y

-24.41%

Revenue Q/Q

-16.21%

CVNA Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

-1.6B

Earnings Y/Y

-805.62%

Earnings Q/Q

-184.81%

Price Action

52 Week Range

3.55149.69

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

10.5%

Last 30 days

-18.7%

Last 90 days

102.2%

Trailing 12 Months

-94.5%

CVNA Financial Health

Current Ratio

1.77

Debt/Equity

5.09

Debt/Cashflow

-0.71

CVNA Investor Care

Shares Dilution (1Y)

24.86%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

-15.74

Financials for Carvana

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	-6.3%	13,604	14,520	14,614	14,066	12,814
Gross Profit	-20.6%	1,246	1,569	1,733	1,889	1,929
S&GA Expenses	0.4%	2,736	2,724	2,614	2,363	2,033
Interest Expenses	25.3%	486	388	283	210	176
Net Income	-20.5%	-1,587	-1,317	-1,066	-582	-135
Net Income Margin	-28.6%	-0.12*	-0.09*	-0.04*	-0.03*	-0.01*
Free Cahsflow	22.7%	-1,836	-2,375	-2,666	-3,350	-3,151

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	-9.6%	8,698	9,621	10,502	7,585	7,015
Current Assets	2.8%	4,594	4,469	5,491	5,070	4,892
Cash Equivalents	37.3%	434	316	1,047	247	403
Inventory	-27.2%	1,876	2,577	2,865	3,304	3,149
Goodwill	-100.0%	-	847	847	9.00	9.00
Liabilities	5.5%	9,751	9,247	9,638	7,533	6,490
Current Liabilities	38.0%	2,592	1,878	2,368	3,741	2,890
LT Debt, Current	-57.2%	1,236	2,886	2,154	-	-
LT Debt, Non Current	-0.6%	6,574	6,616	6,605	3,286	3,208
Shareholder's Equity	-484.3%	-1,053	274	864	52.00	306
Retained Earnings	-63.5%	-2,076	-1,270	-987	-749	-489
Additional Paid-In Capital	0.9%	1,558	1,544	1,526	829	795
Shares Outstanding	-	106	-	-	-	-
Minority Interest	-635.0%	-535	100	325	-28.00	219

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	24.6%	-1,324	-1,757	-1,942	-2,655	-2,594
Share Based Compensation	1.5%	69.00	68.00	63.00	59.00	39.00
Cashflow From Investing	9.1%	-2,583	-2,843	-2,978	-760	-627
Cashflow From Financing	-16.6%	3,899	4,673	5,807	3,542	3,528

Risks for CVNA

What is the probability of a big loss on CVNA?

98.8%

Probability that Carvana stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

76.2%

Probability that Carvana stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

68.8%

Probability that Carvana stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does CVNA drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Carvana was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for CVNA

Cumulative Returns on CVNA

-17.1%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

-45.7%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for CVNA?

FIve years rolling returns for Carvana.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold CVNA recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	reduced	-0.05	-167,775	51,225	-%
2023-03-10	BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	added	0.17	-219,965,000	67,160,000	0.07%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	reduced	-13.77	-6,000	1,000	-%
2023-03-02	OLIVER LAGORE VANVALIN INVESTMENT GROUP	reduced	-8.82	-853	147	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	reduced	-0.36	-673,806	204,194	-%
2023-02-22	CVA Family Office, LLC	sold off	-100	-	-	-%
2023-02-22	TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY	unchanged	-	-951,000	290,000	-%
2023-02-21	NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO	added	944	38,592	66,592	-%
2023-02-16	MAVERICK CAPITAL LTD	sold off	-100	-14,935,000	-	-%
2023-02-16	HARBOUR INVESTMENTS, INC.	new	-	616	616	-%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying CVNA calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own CVNA

No. of Funds

Carvana News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Carvana

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 14, 2023	cas investment partners, llc	6.4%	6,827,803	SC 13G
Feb 14, 2023	greenoaks capital partners llc	7.0%	7,370,124	SC 13G
Feb 14, 2023	morgan stanley	12.4%	13,158,815	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2023	spruce house investment management llc	9.4%	1e+07	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2023	luxor capital group, lp	1%	10,001	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2023	tiger global management llc	0.0%	0	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	8.16%	8,641,209	SC 13G/A
Feb 08, 2023	garcia ernest c. iii	22.56%	30,118,272	SC 13G
Feb 07, 2023	goldman sachs group inc	8.3%	8,811,938	SC 13G
Feb 07, 2023	cvan holdings llc	8.06%	9,221,376	SC 13G/A

CVNA Fair Value

Carvana fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Carvana for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -
Current Inflation	17.24 110.50%	43.07 425.89%	127.86 1461.17%	274.30 3249.21%	565.42 6803.79%
Very High Inflation	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -

Historical Carvana Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Carvana

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 22, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Mar 21, 2023	ARS	ARS
Mar 21, 2023	DEF 14A	DEF 14A
Mar 21, 2023	DEFA14A	DEFA14A
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for CVNA

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-01	KEETON RYAN S.	sold (taxes)	-668	8.91	-75.00	chief brand officer
2023-03-01	GARCIA ERNEST C. III	sold (taxes)	-1,389	8.91	-156	chief executive officer
2023-03-01	HUSTON BENJAMIN E.	sold (taxes)	-1,238	8.91	-139	chief operating officer
2023-03-01	BREAUX PAUL W.	sold (taxes)	-953	8.91	-107	see remarks
2023-03-01	Taira Thomas	sold (taxes)	-623	8.91	-70.00	president, special projects
2023-03-01	JENKINS MARK W.	sold (taxes)	-1,238	8.91	-139	chief financial officer
2023-03-01	Palmer Stephen R	sold (taxes)	-623	8.91	-70.00	vice president of accounting
2023-03-01	GILL DANIEL J.	sold (taxes)	-1,095	8.91	-123	chief product officer
2023-02-22	HUSTON BENJAMIN E.	acquired	-	-	98,736	chief operating officer
2023-02-22	GILL DANIEL J.	acquired	-	-	88,292	chief product officer

About Carvana

Ernie Garcia

21000

Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars in the United States. The company's platform allows customers to research and identify a vehicle; inspect it using company's 360-degree vehicle imaging technology; obtain financing and warranty coverage; purchase the vehicle; and schedule delivery or pick-up from their desktop or mobile devices. Carvana Co. was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.

CVNA Income Statement

2022-12-31

Consolidated Statements of Operations - USD ($)
shares in Thousands

12 Months Ended

Dec. 31, 2022

Dec. 31, 2021

Dec. 31, 2020

Sales and operating revenues:

Net sales and operating revenues

$ 13,604,000,000

$ 12,814,000,000

$ 5,587,000,000

Cost of sales, including $22, $65, and $4, respectively, to related parties

12,358,000,000

10,885,000,000

4,793,000,000

Gross profit

1,246,000,000

1,929,000,000

794,000,000

Selling, general and administrative expenses, including $33, $27, and $19, respectively, to related parties

2,736,000,000

2,033,000,000

1,126,000,000

Goodwill impairment

847,000,000

Interest expense, including $0, $0, and $1, respectively, to related parties

486,000,000

176,000,000

131,000,000

Other expense (income), net

70,000,000

6,000,000

(1,000,000)

Net loss before income taxes

(2,893,000,000)

(286,000,000)

(462,000,000)

Income tax provision

1,000,000

Net loss

(2,894,000,000)

(287,000,000)

(462,000,000)

Net loss attributable to non-controlling interests

(1,307,000,000)

(152,000,000)

(291,000,000)

Net loss attributable to Carvana Co.

(1,587,000,000)

(135,000,000)

(171,000,000)

Net loss attributable to Class A common stockholders, basic

(1,587,000,000)

(135,000,000)

(171,000,000)

Net loss attributable to Class A common stockholders, diluted

$ (1,587,000,000)

$ (135,000,000)

$ (171,000,000)

Net loss per share of Class A common stock, diluted (in dollars per share)

$ (15.74)

$ (1.63)

$ (2.63)

Weighted-average shares of Class A common stock, diluted (in shares)

^[1]

100,828

82,805

64,981

Class A

Sales and operating revenues:

Net loss per share of Class A common stock, basic (in dollars per share)

$ (15.74)

$ (1.63)

$ (2.63)

Weighted-average shares of Class A common stock, basic (in shares)

^[1]

100,828

82,805

64,981

Retail vehicle sales, net

Sales and operating revenues:

Net sales and operating revenues

$ 10,254,000,000

$ 9,851,000,000

$ 4,741,000,000

Wholesale sales and revenues

Sales and operating revenues:

Net sales and operating revenues

2,609,000,000

1,920,000,000

445,000,000

Other sales and revenues

Sales and operating revenues:

Net sales and operating revenues

$ 741,000,000

$ 1,043,000,000

$ 401,000,000

[1]	Weighted-average shares of Class A common stock outstanding have been adjusted for unvested restricted stock awards.

CVNA Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($) $ in Millions	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 434	$ 403
Restricted cash	194	233
Accounts receivable, net	253	206
Finance receivables held for sale, net	1,334	356
Vehicle inventory	1,876	3,149
Beneficial interests in securitizations	321	382
Other current assets, including $6 and $12, respectively, due from related parties	182	163
Total current assets	4,594	4,892
Property and equipment, net	3,244	1,560
Operating lease right-of-use assets, including $14 and $17, respectively, from leases with related parties	536	369
Intangible assets, net	70	4
Goodwill, end of year	0	9
Other assets, including $1 and $7, respectively, due from related parties	254	181
Total assets	8,698	7,015
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities, including $16 and $27, respectively, due to related parties	777	656
Short-term revolving facilities	1,534	2,053
Current portion of long-term debt	201	152
Other current liabilities, including $4 and $3, respectively, from leases with related parties	80	29
Total current liabilities	2,592	2,890
Long-term debt, excluding current portion	6,574	3,208
Operating lease liabilities, excluding current portion, including $9 and $13, respectively, from leases with related parties	507	361
Other liabilities	78	31
Total liabilities	9,751	6,490
Commitments and contingencies (Note 17)
Stockholders' equity (deficit):
Preferred stock, $0.01 par value - 50,000 shares authorized; none issued and outstanding as of December 31, 2022 and 2021	0	0
Additional paid in capital	1,558	795
Accumulated deficit	(2,076)	(489)
Total stockholders' equity (deficit) attributable to Carvana Co.	(518)	306
Non-controlling interests	(535)	219
Total stockholders' equity (deficit)	(1,053)	525
Total liabilities & stockholders' equity (deficit)	8,698	7,015
Class A
Stockholders' equity (deficit):
Common stock	0	0
Class B
Stockholders' equity (deficit):
Common stock	$ 0	$ 0