Graco Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD73.01+1.26

Market Closed

1.76%

GGG Stock Price

GGG RSI Chart

GGG Valuation

Market Cap

12.2B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

26.58

Price/Sales (Trailing)

5.71

EV/EBITDA

18.55

Price/Free Cashflow

69.48

GGG Price/Sales (Trailing)

GGG Profitability

EBT Margin

26.39%

Return on Equity

24.77%

Return on Assets

18.89%

Free Cashflow Yield

1.44%

GGG Fundamentals

GGG Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

2.1B

Revenue Y/Y

2.86%

Revenue Q/Q

1.72%

GGG Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

460.6M

Earnings Y/Y

4.96%

Earnings Q/Q

8.57%

Price Action

52 Week Range

56.0873.10

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

5.7%

Last 30 days

5.6%

Last 90 days

8.6%

Trailing 12 Months

5.8%

GGG Financial Health

Current Ratio

3.01

GGG Investor Care

Dividend Yield

1.18%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

0.87

Buy Backs (1Y)

1.53%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

2.66

Peers (Alternatives to Graco)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
ITW	74.3B	15.9B	4.80%	17.86%	24.47	4.66	10.22%	12.62%
IR	23.6B	5.9B	0.24%	15.65%	38.96	3.98	14.83%	7.50%
XYL	18.9B	5.5B	3.57%	23.99%	53.15	3.42	6.29%	-16.86%
IEX	17.4B	3.2B	3.38%	21.65%	29.68	5.47	15.09%	30.60%
GGG	12.2B	2.1B	5.55%	5.79%	26.58	5.71	7.84%	4.72%
MID-CAP
DCI	8.0B	3.4B	-0.65%	25.82%	22.43	2.34	10.23%	12.47%
ITT	7.1B	3.0B	-6.26%	15.19%	19.45	2.39	8.05%	16.03%
FLS	4.4B	3.6B	-2.21%	-3.85%	23.55	1.23	2.09%	49.85%
SMALL-CAP
ERII	1.3B	125.6M	4.35%	14.45%	53.75	10.29	20.87%	68.54%
GRC	652.4M	521.0M	-9.12%	-29.05%	58.27	1.25	37.72%	-62.50%
TWIN	128.3M	254.5M	-13.36%	-42.73%	13.92	0.5	9.95%	139.59%
MNTX	104.8M	273.9M	3.37%	-28.43%	-21.37	0.38	29.46%	-7.17%
NNBR	47.0M	491.1M	-40.88%	-62.85%	-3.45	0.1	1.00%	-108.69%

Financials for Graco

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	0.7%	2,144	2,128	2,069	2,028	1,988
Gross Profit	-0.2%	1,057	1,059	1,046	1,041	1,034
S&GA Expenses	-3.7%	251	261	265	272	272
R&D Expenses	3.0%	80.00	78.00	78.00	79.00	80.00
EBITDA	4.3%	642	615	593	579	578
EBITDA Margin	3.6%	0.30*	0.29*	0.29*	0.29*	0.29*
Earnings Before Taxes	4.6%	566	541	520	506	508
EBT Margin	3.8%	0.26*	0.25*	0.25*	0.25*	0.26*
Interest Expenses	-12.5%	10.00	11.00	12.00	13.00	10.00
Net Income	1.3%	461	455	442	435	440
Net Income Margin	0.6%	0.21*	0.21*	0.21*	0.21*	0.22*
Free Cahsflow	1.8%	176	173	204	227	323

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	0.0%	2,439	2,438	2,404	2,319	2,443
Current Assets	-6.2%	1,206	1,286	1,276	1,197	1,364
Cash Equivalents	-18.2%	339	415	413	380	624
Inventory	3.2%	477	462	451	437	382
Net PPE	8.0%	608	563	516	488	451
Goodwill	2.4%	368	360	365	371	356
Current Liabilities	-7.2%	400	431	424	402	507
LT Debt, Current	-100.0%	-	75.00	-	-	-
LT Debt, Non Current	0%	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00	75.00
Shareholder's Equity	4.0%	1,860	1,788	1,757	1,690	1,709
Retained Earnings	2.8%	977	950	913	842	877
Additional Paid-In Capital	1.0%	784	777	770	762	742
Shares Outstanding	-1.5%	168	170	-	-	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	1.7%	377	371	372	387	457
Share Based Compensation	0.7%	25.00	25.00	26.00	25.00	25.00
Cashflow From Investing	-1.2%	-226	-224	-193	-204	-153
Cashflow From Financing	-29.8%	-434	-334	-246	-263	-57.14
Dividend Payments	2.4%	142	139	135	131	127
Buy Backs	39.5%	233	167	120	109	0.00

Risks for GGG

What is the probability of a big loss on GGG?

35%

Probability that Graco stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

Probability that Graco stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

Probability that Graco stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does GGG drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Graco was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for GGG

Cumulative Returns on GGG

16.0%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

15.7%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

11.1%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

15.7%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for GGG?

FIve years rolling returns for Graco.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold GGG recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-28	Acrisure Capital Management, LLC	new	-	250,880	250,880	0.28%
2023-03-27	Neo Ivy Capital Management	added	923	1,102,000	1,207,000	0.82%
2023-03-23	MetLife Investment Management, LLC	reduced	-2.37	648,189	7,444,000	0.06%
2023-03-17	American Portfolios Advisors	added	7.89	2,004	24,580	-%
2023-03-15	B. Riley Wealth Advisors, Inc.	reduced	-54.97	-201,964	206,036	0.01%
2023-03-13	Claro Advisors LLC	added	25.34	141,148	477,148	0.16%
2023-03-10	BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	unchanged	-	2,415	24,415	-%
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	added	31.49	2,443,850	7,586,850	0.01%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	added	141	25,000	39,000	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	added	56.57	2,949,880	6,847,880	0.01%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying GGG calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own GGG

No. of Funds

Graco News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Graco

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Mar 10, 2023	vanguard group inc	10.09%	16,935,863	SC 13G/A
Mar 08, 2023	blackrock inc.	10.0%	16,810,789	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	9.93%	16,737,872	SC 13G/A
Feb 07, 2023	blackrock inc.	9.1%	15,330,114	SC 13G/A
Jan 17, 2023	fiera capital corp	5.67%	9,553,036	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2022	vanguard group inc	9.87%	16,769,139	SC 13G/A
Feb 04, 2022	fiera capital corp	6.17%	10,487,317	SC 13G/A
Feb 01, 2022	blackrock inc.	8.3%	14,108,388	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2021	vanguard group inc	9.75%	16,338,680	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2021	fiera capital corp	7.0%	11,646,419	SC 13G/A

GGG Fair Value

Graco fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Graco for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	38.17 -47.72%	50.78 -30.45%	70.52 -3.41%	91.61 25.48%	106.96 46.50%
Current Inflation	34.81 -52.32%	45.58 -37.57%	62.05 -15.01%	79.54 8.94%	92.21 26.30%
Very High Inflation	30.69 -57.96%	39.34 -46.12%	52.13 -28.60%	65.65 -10.08%	75.36 3.22%

Historical Graco Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Graco

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 15, 2023	ARS	ARS
Mar 15, 2023	DEF 14A	DEF 14A
Mar 15, 2023	DEFA14A	DEFA14A
Mar 10, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Mar 09, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 08, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 21, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 21, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 21, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 21, 2023	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for GGG

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-02-27	MORFITT MARTHA A M	gifted	-	-	-3,300	-
2023-02-27	MORFITT MARTHA A M	gifted	-	-	3,300	-
2023-02-09	LOWE DAVID M	acquired	1,057,320	19.58	54,000	cfo and treasurer
2023-02-09	LOWE DAVID M	sold	-2,184,250	70.17	-31,128	cfo and treasurer
2023-02-06	VAN SANT R WILLIAM	sold	-1,481,140	71.1401	-20,820	-
2023-02-06	VAN SANT R WILLIAM	acquired	482,034	23.1524	20,820	-
2023-02-02	Etchart Eric	acquired	119,020	19.8367	6,000	-
2023-02-02	Etchart Eric	sold	-431,400	71.9	-6,000	-
2023-01-01	Carter Brett C	acquired	11,366	67.26	169	-
2022-11-23	Wordell Angela F	sold	-190,006	70.3727	-2,700	executive vp, operations

About Graco

Mark W. Sheahan

www.graco.com

3800

Graco Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets systems and equipment used to move, measure, control, dispense, and spray fluid and powder materials worldwide. The company's Industrial segment offers proportioning systems to spray polyurethane foam and polyurea coatings; equipment that pumps, meters, mixes and dispenses sealant, adhesive, and composite materials; and gel-coat equipment, chop and wet-out systems, resin transfer molding systems and applicators, and precision dispensing solutions. It also provides liquid finishing equipment; paint circulating and supply pumps; paint circulating advanced control systems; plural component coating proportioners; spare parts and accessories; and powder finishing products to coat powder finishing on metals under the Gema and SAT brands. The company's Process segment offers pumps to move and dispense chemicals, water, wastewater, petroleum, food, lubricants, and other fluids; pressure valves used in the oil and natural gas industry, other industrial processes, and research facilities; and chemical injection pumping solutions for injection of chemicals into producing oil wells and pipelines. It also supplies pumps, hose reels, meters, valves, and accessories for fast oil change facilities, service garages, fleet service centers, automobile dealerships, auto parts stores, truck builders, and heavy equipment service centers; and systems, components, and accessories for the automatic lubrication of bearings, gears, and generators in industrial and commercial equipment, compressors, turbines, and on- and off-road vehicles. The company's Contractor segment offers sprayers to apply paint to walls and other structures; and viscous coatings to roofs, as well as markings on roads, parking lots, athletic fields, and floors. It sells its products through distributors, original equipment manufacturers, and home center channels; and directly to end-users. The company was incorporated in 1926 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

GGG Income Statement

2022-12-30

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF EARNINGS - USD ($) $ in Thousands	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 30, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 25, 2020
Income Statement [Abstract]
Net Sales	$ 2,143,521	$ 1,987,608	$ 1,650,115
Cost of products sold	1,086,082	953,659	795,178
Gross Profit	1,057,439	1,033,949	854,937
Product development	80,008	79,651	72,194
Selling, marketing and distribution	250,948	271,526	220,271
General and administrative	153,783	151,449	135,525
Impairment of Long-Lived Assets to be Disposed of	0	0	35,229
Operating Earnings	572,700	531,323	391,718
Interest expense	9,897	10,215	11,280
Other expense, net	(2,921)	12,643	5,787
Earnings Before Income Taxes	565,724	508,465	374,651
Income taxes	105,079	68,599	44,195
Net Earnings	$ 460,645	$ 439,866	$ 330,456
Basic Net Earnings per Common Share	$ 2.73	$ 2.59	$ 1.97
Diluted Net Earnings per Common Share	$ 2.66	$ 2.52	$ 1.92

GGG Balance Sheet

2022-12-30

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Dec. 30, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current Assets
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 339,196	$ 624,302
Accounts receivable, less allowances of $7,000 and $3,900	346,010	325,132
Inventories	476,790	382,301
Other current assets	43,624	31,886
Total current assets	1,205,620	1,363,621
Property, Plant and Equipment, net	607,609	451,061
Goodwill	368,171	356,255
Other Intangible Assets, net	137,507	149,740
Operating Lease, Right-of-Use Asset	29,785	30,046
Deferred Income Taxes	57,090	55,786
Other Assets	33,118	36,689
Total Assets	2,438,900	2,443,198
Current Liabilities
Notes payable to banks	20,974	43,489
Long-term Debt, Current Maturities	0	75,000
Trade accounts payable	84,218	78,432
Salaries and incentives	63,969	82,941
Dividends payable	39,963	35,771
Other current liabilities	190,793	191,159
Total current liabilities	399,917	506,792
Long-term Debt	75,000	75,000
Retirement Benefits and Deferred Compensation	61,672	106,897
Operating Lease Liabilities	21,057	23,527
Deferred Income Taxes	9,443	10,661
Other Non-current Liabilities	12,159	10,978
Shareholders’ Equity
Common stock, $1 par value; 291,000,000 shares authorized; 167,702,130 and 170,307,412 shares outstanding in 2022 and 2021	167,702	170,308
Additional paid-in-capital	784,477	742,288
Retained earnings	976,851	876,916
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)	(69,378)	(80,169)
Total shareholders’ equity	1,859,652	1,709,343
Total Liabilities and Shareholders’ Equity	$ 2,438,900	$ 2,443,198