Green Plains Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD30.10-0.13

Delayedas of 23 Mar 2023, 12:58 pm

-0.43%

GPRE Alerts

Big fall in earnings (Y/Y)
Losses in recent quarter

GPRE Stock Price

GPRE RSI Chart

GPRE Valuation

Market Cap

1.8B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

-14.52

Price/Sales (Trailing)

0.5

EV/EBITDA

52.66

Price/Free Cashflow

-12.95

GPRE Price/Sales (Trailing)

GPRE Profitability

EBT Margin

-2.69%

Return on Equity

-13.98%

Return on Assets

-5.99%

Free Cashflow Yield

-7.72%

GPRE Fundamentals

GPRE Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

3.7B

Revenue Y/Y

13.93%

Revenue Q/Q

-4.29%

GPRE Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

-127.2M

Earnings Y/Y

-303.6%

Earnings Q/Q

47.48%

Price Action

52 Week Range

26.0941.25

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-5.6%

Last 30 days

-10.8%

Last 90 days

1.0%

Trailing 12 Months

10.3%

GPRE Financial Health

Current Ratio

1.91

GPRE Investor Care

Shares Dilution (1Y)

10.63%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

-0.91

Peers (Alternatives to Green Plains)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
XOM	412.4B	413.7B	-13.74%	35.32%	7.4	1	44.83%	141.93%
CVX	298.1B	246.3B	-9.27%	-0.38%	8.41	1.21	51.57%	126.98%
COP	122.0B	82.2B	-15.20%	4.00%	6.53	1.49	69.92%	131.22%
MPC	61.5B	180.0B	-3.44%	67.96%	4.23	0.34	48.81%	49.07%
MRO	14.7B	8.0B	-21.92%	-0.91%	4.08	1.84	46.99%	281.82%
MID-CAP
MUR	5.4B	4.2B	-20.59%	-4.46%	5.64	1.29	50.65%	1409.36%
REGI	3.1B	-	0.65%	-11.32%	16.6	0.85	-	-
CPE	1.9B	3.2B	-26.77%	-44.44%	1.56	0.58	60.18%	231.32%
SMALL-CAP
GPRE	1.8B	3.7B	-10.84%	10.26%	-14.52	0.5	29.56%	-92.78%
INT	1.5B	59.0B	-19.16%	-5.56%	13.17	0.03	88.41%	54.82%
REX	518.6M	866.8M	-10.67%	-67.59%	9.77	0.61	25.85%	21.86%
GEVO	431.6M	3.0M	-19.05%	-53.42%	-4.4	141.85	327.99%	-65.54%
AMTX	100.1M	256.5M	-41.21%	-74.86%	-0.93	0.39	21.03%	-128.56%

Financials for Green Plains

Income Statement (Last 12 Months)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	3.1%	3,662,849,000	3,551,125,000	3,342,939,000	3,054,963,000	2,827,168,000
S&GA Expenses	9.9%	118,930,000	108,258,000	105,214,000	98,484,000	91,139,000
Costs and Expenses	3.9%	3,761,797,000	3,619,263,000	3,393,872,000	3,108,704,000	2,801,660,000
EBITDA	-48.0%	26,639,000	51,187,000	70,029,000	37,006,000	-
EBITDA Margin	-49.5%	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	-
Earnings Before Taxes	-40.2%	-98,701,000	-70,386,000	-55,089,000	-98,935,000	-43,001,000
EBT Margin	-36.0%	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-
Interest Expenses	-1.4%	32,642,000	33,101,000	33,013,000	44,271,000	67,144,000
Net Income	-47.5%	-127,218,000	-86,246,000	-72,342,000	-108,945,000	-65,992,000
Net Income Margin	-43.0%	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-
Free Cahsflow	42.7%	-142,657,000	-249,081,000	-327,762,000	-338,968,000	-

Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	1.0%	2,123	2,102	2,296	2,253	2,160
Current Assets	-0.7%	929	936	1,160	1,163	1,118
Cash Equivalents	5.7%	445	421	508	509	426
Net PPE	1.3%	1,029	1,016	981	941	894
Liabilities	7.5%	1,062	988	1,214	1,210	1,058
Current Liabilities	15.8%	487	421	648	581	472
. Short Term Borrowings	-33.2%	138	206	308	310	173
LT Debt, Current	0.2%	2.00	2.00	99.00	36.00	35.00
LT Debt, Non Current	0.0%	495	495	495	558	514
Shareholder's Equity	-5.4%	910	962	1,082	1,043	951
Retained Earnings	-37.2%	-142	-103	-30.27	-76.67	-15.20
Additional Paid-In Capital	0.2%	1,110	1,108	1,070	1,068	1,070
Accumulated Depreciation	1.5%	612	603	585	567	-
Shares Outstanding	0.0%	59.00	59.00	54.00	54.00	54.00
Minority Interest	-0.1%	151	151	151	152	152

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Thousands)
Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Thousands)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	3068.9%	69,709	-2,348	-72,183	-121,313	4,246
Share Based Compensation	4.0%	9,071	8,724	8,348	7,051	6,058
Cashflow From Investing	62.8%	-105,252	-283,099	-281,574	-240,674	-236,285
Cashflow From Financing	-148.3%	-25,140	52,000	317,663	311,826	518,188
Dividend Payments	4.6%	22,555	21,562	17,712	12,978	9,251
Buy Backs	NaN%	0.00	0.00	-	-	-

Risks for GPRE

What is the probability of a big loss on GPRE?

95.8%

Probability that Green Plains stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

68.8%

Probability that Green Plains stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

34.2%

Probability that Green Plains stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does GPRE drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Green Plains was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for GPRE

Cumulative Returns on GPRE

12.1%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

12.2%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

12.0%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

72.6%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for GPRE?

FIve years rolling returns for Green Plains.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold GPRE recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	reduced	-0.98	1,300,180	34,703,200	0.04%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	unchanged	-	-	-	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	unchanged	-	46,281	991,281	-%
2023-02-27	Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P.	new	-	103,212	103,212	-%
2023-02-24	NATIXIS	sold off	-100	-316,000	-	-%
2023-02-22	TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY	added	8.53	66,000	543,000	0.01%
2023-02-21	NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO	sold off	-100	-3,000	-	-%
2023-02-21	MACQUARIE GROUP LTD	sold off	-	-15,000	-	-%
2023-02-17	TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP	added	1,055	931,595	1,016,600	-%
2023-02-16	AXXCESS WEALTH MANAGEMENT, LLC	new	-	1,118,770	1,118,770	0.09%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying GPRE calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own GPRE

No. of Funds

Green Plains News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Green Plains

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 13, 2023	grantham, mayo, van otterloo & co. llc	5.43%	3,220,144	SC 13G
Feb 10, 2023	dimensional fund advisors lp	4.0%	2,379,836	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	state street corp	7.35%	4,359,232	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	7.05%	4,180,734	SC 13G/A
Feb 02, 2023	blackrock inc.	19.6%	11,990,041	SC 13G/A
Jan 31, 2023	ancora advisors, llc	1.8%	28,883	SC 13D/A
Jan 31, 2023	franklin mutual advisers llc	6.3%	3,718,750	SC 13G
Mar 11, 2022	blackrock inc.	19.6%	10,895,784	SC 13G/A
Feb 15, 2022	encompass capital advisors llc	1.74%	930,587	SC 13G/A
Feb 11, 2022	state street corp	5.91%	3,169,444	SC 13G/A

GPRE Fair Value

Green Plains fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Green Plains for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	8.18 -72.82%	9.31 -69.07%	13.74 -54.35%	25.70 -14.62%	44.56 48.04%
Current Inflation	8.00 -73.42%	9.06 -69.90%	13.22 -56.08%	23.60 -21.59%	39.95 32.72%
Very High Inflation	7.77 -74.19%	8.73 -71.00%	12.54 -58.34%	21.06 -30.03%	34.50 14.62%

Historical Green Plains Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Green Plains

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 21, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 21, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 21, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 21, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 21, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 16, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 16, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 16, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 16, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 16, 2023	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for GPRE

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-09	Becker Todd A	acquired	2,100,010	34.66	60,589	president and ceo
2023-03-09	Kadavy Grant D	acquired	350,031	34.66	10,099	evp commercial operations
2023-03-09	Osowski Chris	acquired	300,017	34.66	8,656	evp operations and technology
2023-03-09	MAPES MICHELLE	acquired	300,017	34.66	8,656	chief legal and admin officer
2023-03-09	Simpkins G Patrich Jr	acquired	350,031	34.66	10,099	chief transformation officer
2023-03-09	Herbert James F II	acquired	300,017	34.66	8,656	chief human resources officer
2023-03-09	STARK JAMES E	acquired	350,031	34.66	10,099	chief financial officer
2023-03-09	van der Meulen Leslie	acquired	300,017	34.66	8,656	evp product mktg & innovation
2023-01-10	Osowski Chris	sold (taxes)	-45,386	31.85	-1,425	evp operations and technology
2023-01-10	STARK JAMES E	sold (taxes)	-37,837	31.85	-1,188	chief financial officer

About Green Plains

Todd A. Becker

www.gpreinc.com

860

Green Plains Inc. produces, markets, and distributes ethanol in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Ethanol Production, Agribusiness and Energy Services, and Partnership. The Ethanol Production segment produces and sells ethanol, including industrial-grade alcohol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and corn oil. The Agribusiness and Energy Services segment engages in the grain procurement, handling, and storage activities; and commodity marketing business, which purchases, markets, sells, and distributes ethanol, distiller grains, and ultra-high protein and corn oil, as well as grain, natural gas, and other commodities in various markets. This segment also provides grain drying and storage services to grain producers. The Partnership segment offers fuel storage and transportation services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through 29 ethanol storage facilities; 4 fuel terminal facilities; and a fleet of approximately 2,300 leased railcars. The company was formerly known as Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Green Plains Inc. in May 2014. Green Plains Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.

GPRE Income Statement

2022-09-30

Consolidated Statements of Operations - USD ($) $ in Thousands	3 Months Ended		9 Months Ended
	Sep. 30, 2022	Sep. 30, 2021	Sep. 30, 2022	Sep. 30, 2021
Revenues
Revenues	$ 954,977	$ 746,791	$ 2,748,806	$ 2,024,849
Costs and expenses
Cost of goods sold (excluding depreciation and amortization expenses reflected below)	956,857	730,179	2,650,680	1,878,820
Operations and maintenance expenses	6,287	5,162	18,012	17,153
Selling, general and administrative expenses	29,066	26,022	90,042	72,923
Loss (gain) on sale of assets, net	0	1,823	0	(31,245)
Depreciation and amortization expenses	24,647	28,280	66,013	69,493
Total costs and expenses	1,016,857	791,466	2,824,747	2,007,144
Operating income (loss)	(61,880)	(44,675)	(75,941)	17,705
Other income (expense)
Interest income	1,763	25	2,640	496
Interest expense	(9,576)	(9,488)	(26,182)	(60,225)
Other, net	(182)	(440)	28,394	(1,680)
Total other income (expense)	(7,995)	(9,903)	4,852	(61,409)
Loss before income taxes and income (loss) from equity method investees	(69,875)	(54,578)	(71,089)	(43,704)
Income tax benefit (expense)	1,888	(7)	146	2,914
Income (loss) from equity method investees	84	174	(112)	517
Net loss	(67,903)	(54,411)	(71,055)	(40,273)
Net income attributable to noncontrolling interests	5,623	5,211	17,547	16,151
Net loss attributable to Green Plains	$ (73,526)	$ (59,622)	$ (88,602)	$ (56,424)
Earnings per share:
Net income (loss) attributable to Green Plains - basic (in dollars per share)	$ (1.27)	$ (1.18)	$ (1.62)	$ (1.27)
EPS - diluted (in dollars per share)	$ (1.27)	$ (1.18)	$ (1.62)	$ (1.27)
Weighted average shares outstanding:
Basic (in shares)	57,677,000	50,482,000	54,550,000	44,581,000
Diluted (in shares)	57,677,000	50,482,000	54,550,000	44,581,000
Product
Revenues
Revenues	$ 946,852	$ 745,240	$ 2,733,477	$ 2,019,006
Service
Revenues
Revenues	$ 8,125	$ 1,551	$ 15,329	$ 5,843

GPRE Balance Sheet

2022-09-30

Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Sep. 30, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 420,838	$ 426,220
Restricted cash	66,610	134,739
Marketable securities	24,989	124,859
Accounts receivable, net of allowances of $204 and $682, respectively	118,362	119,961
Income taxes receivable	1,072	911
Inventories	258,852	267,838
Prepaid expenses and other	13,572	16,483
Derivative financial instruments	31,318	26,738
Total current assets	935,613	1,117,749
Property and equipment, net of accumulated depreciation ‎and amortization of $611,773 and $567,027, respectively	1,016,349	893,517
Operating lease right-of-use assets	63,464	64,042
Other assets	86,114	84,447
Total assets	2,101,540	2,159,755
Current liabilities
Accounts payable	123,035	146,063
Accrued and other liabilities	45,947	56,980
Derivative financial instruments	25,883	43,244
Operating lease current liabilities	17,800	16,814
Short-term notes payable and other borrowings	206,102	173,418
Current maturities of long-term debt	1,835	35,285
Total current liabilities	420,602	471,804
Long-term debt	495,269	514,006
Operating lease long-term liabilities	48,934	49,795
Other liabilities	23,501	22,131
Total liabilities	988,306	1,057,736
Commitments and contingencies (Note 13)
Stockholders' equity
Common stock, $0.001 par value; 150,000,000 shares authorized; ‎62,087,927 and 61,840,434 shares issued, and 59,282,868 ‎and 53,595,978 shares outstanding, respectively	62	62
Additional paid-in capital	1,107,786	1,069,573
Retained deficit	(103,801)	(15,199)
Accumulated other comprehensive loss	(10,831)	(12,310)
Treasury stock, 2,805,059 and 8,244,456 shares, respectively	(31,174)	(91,626)
Total Green Plains stockholders' equity	962,042	950,500
Noncontrolling interests	151,192	151,519
Total stockholders' equity	1,113,234	1,102,019
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity	$ 2,101,540	$ 2,159,755