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Harley-Davidson Inc Stock Research

HOG

38.59USD-0.66(-1.68%)Market Closed

Market Summary

USD38.59-0.66
Market Closed
-1.68%

HOG Alerts

HOG Stock Price

HOG RSI Chart

HOG Valuation

Market Cap

6.3B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

10.14

Price/Sales (Trailing)

1.18

EV/EBITDA

11.65

Price/Free Cashflow

14.42

HOG Price/Sales (Trailing)

HOG Profitability

EBT Margin

16.18%

Return on Equity

25.53%

Return on Assets

6.45%

Free Cashflow Yield

6.93%

HOG Fundamentals

HOG Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

5.8B

Revenue Y/Y

12.38%

Revenue Q/Q

-30.71%

HOG Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

741.4M

Earnings Y/Y

94.14%

Earnings Q/Q

-83.97%

Price Action

52 Week Range

29.8051.77
(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-9.7%

Last 30 days

-19.1%

Last 90 days

-12.8%

Trailing 12 Months

3.6%

HOG Financial Health

Current Ratio

1.34

Debt/Equity

2.5

Debt/Cashflow

0.09

HOG Investor Care

Dividend Yield

1.63%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

0.63

Buy Backs (1Y)

4.99%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

4.96

Peers (Alternatives to Harley-Davidson)

View All Peers In Detail
NameMkt Capsorted ascendingRevenuePrice %, 1MReturns, 1YP/EP/SRev 1-YrInc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
582.6B
81.5B
-7.29% -32.49%
46.4
7.15
51.35% 127.50%
50.1B
156.7B
-18.30% -18.15%
5.04
0.32
23.41% -0.85%
47.5B
158.1B
-10.54% -25.09%
-22.09
0.3
15.93% -112.02%
30.4B
17.5B
-3.57% 0.64%
51.17
1.74
11.98% 0.68%
11.0B
15.8B
-7.92% 26.25%
11.64
0.7
6.49% 75.79%
MID-CAP
6.3B
5.8B
-19.06% 3.64%
10.14
1.18
7.85% 14.06%
4.9B
1.6B
-3.82% 13.95%
24.04
3.08
23.36% 25.31%
4.3B
13.9B
-17.49% -3.34%
5.46
0.31
-6.39% -14.11%
SMALL-CAP
1.7B
4.8B
-16.12% -3.83%
4.97
0.37
19.08% 8.38%
1.7B
18.6B
8.17% 58.15%
-7.03
0.09
1.85% -200.42%
891.6M
5.8B
-18.94% -4.84%
13.87
0.15
12.52% 989.83%
486.9M
899.9M
-26.03% -3.76%
-23.81
0.54
16.80% -255.49%
248.4M
5.0M
-23.12% -52.63%
-2.12
49.45
105.05% 70.78%
18.8M
3.2M
-27.19% -57.50%
-0.78
5.88
20.43% 20.10%
3.4M
5.0M
-31.86% -77.58%
-0.05
0.68
17.40% -129.43%

Financials for Harley-Davidson

Income Statement (Last 12 Months)
(In Millions)
* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Revenue2.2%5,7555,6295,3465,4095,336
  S&GA Expenses3.7%1,0801,0411,0301,0561,048
Costs and Expenses2.4%4,8464,7314,5824,6424,513
EBITDA1.8%962946962965-
EBITDA Margin-0.4%0.17*0.17*0.18*0.18*-
Earnings Before Taxes1.9%931914770770819
EBT Margin-0.4%0.16*0.16*0.14*0.14*-
Interest Expenses-0.3%31.0031.0031.0031.0031.00
Net Income2.8%741721623613650
Net Income Margin0.6%0.13*0.13*0.12*0.11*-
Free Cahsflow-17.5%397481438823-
Balance Sheet
(In Millions)
* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Assets-3.6%11,49211,92812,12210,89511,051
  Current Assets-5.2%4,7515,0125,3084,3874,550
    Cash Equivalents-17.2%1,4331,7302,1941,3941,875
  Inventory39.7%951681727714713
  Net PPE7.5%690642652664684
  Goodwill2.7%62.0060.0062.0063.0063.00
  Current Liabilities-4.0%3,5343,6803,6763,2833,343
.    Short Term Borrowings11.3%770693701816751
  Long Term Debt22.3%7,0925,7976,138--
    LT Debt, Current-3.2%1,6851,7401,8881,3271,542
    LT Debt, Non Current-5.9%4,4574,7385,2044,4704,596
Shareholder's Equity2.2%2,9042,8402,6352,5092,553
  Retained Earnings0.8%2,4912,4722,2342,0411,842
  Additional Paid-In Capital7.1%1,6881,5761,5641,5551,547
Accumulated Depreciation-2,271----
Minority InterestInfinity%3.00----
Cashflow (Last 12 Months)
(In Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Cashflow From Operations-12.2%548625576952976
  Share Based Compensation-8.3%39.0042.0042.00--
Cashflow From Investing-15.4%-773-669-567-553-459
Cashflow From Financing-80.5%-201-111546-1,355-1,884
  Dividend Payments-0.1%93.0093.0093.0093.0092.00
  Buy Backs0.0%33933932726812.00

Risks for HOG

What is the probability of a big loss on HOG?

99.6%


Probability that Harley-Davidson stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

36.9%


Probability that Harley-Davidson stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

19.2%


Probability that Harley-Davidson stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.
*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does HOG drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Harley-Davidson was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for HOG

Cumulative Returns on HOG

-1.2%


10-Year Cumulative Returns

-0.7%


7-Year Cumulative Returns

-0.2%


5-Year Cumulative Returns

19.3%


3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for HOG?

FIve years rolling returns for Harley-Davidson.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold HOG recently?

View All Details
Datesorted ascendingFund NameType% Chg$ Change$ Held% Portfolio
2023-03-10
VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC
added
10.2
438,723
1,836,720
-%
2023-03-06
Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.
added
710
22,000
24,000
-%
2023-03-02
OLIVER LAGORE VANVALIN INVESTMENT GROUP
new
-
7,530
7,530
-%
2023-02-28
Voya Investment Management LLC
reduced
-22.19
-275,179
3,543,820
-%
2023-02-27
Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P.
added
2.46
281,890
1,550,890
-%
2023-02-24
NATIXIS
sold off
-100
-6,806,000
-
-%
2023-02-22
TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY
reduced
-8.6
72,000
884,000
0.01%
2023-02-22
CVA Family Office, LLC
added
60.00
1,328
3,328
-%
2023-02-21
NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC
reduced
-35.91
-157,862
512,138
0.01%
2023-02-21
NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO
added
2.19
46,992
265,992
-%

1–10 of 44

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying HOG calls or puts?
Calls
Puts
Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?
Net Call Options
No. of funds that own HOG
No. of Funds

Harley-Davidson News

Simply Wall St

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) Shares Could Be 24% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate.

Simply Wall St,
7 hours ago

Fairfield Daily Republic

Road & Track

Ridin' Loose With The Bagger King.

Road & Track,
3 days ago

Schedule 13G FIlings of Harley-Davidson

Date FiledName of FilerPercent of ClassNo. of SharesForm Type
Feb 13, 2023
boston partners
7.11%
10,395,116
SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023
vanguard group inc
8.99%
13,138,917
SC 13G/A
Feb 03, 2023
blackrock inc.
8.0%
11,762,724
SC 13G/A
Jan 09, 2023
beutel, goodman & co ltd.
5.00%
7,316,927
SC 13G
Feb 11, 2022
boston partners
7.6%
11,689,106
SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2022
vanguard group inc
9.13%
14,043,248
SC 13G/A
Feb 03, 2022
h partners management, llc
8.2%
12,600,000
SC 13D/A
Feb 01, 2022
blackrock inc.
8.1%
12,533,168
SC 13G/A
Jan 31, 2022
invesco ltd.
1.2%
1,886,754
SC 13G/A
Dec 16, 2021
h partners management, llc
8.0%
12,300,000
SC 13D

HOG Fair Value

Harley-Davidson fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Harley-Davidson for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.
Fair ValueVery PessimisticPessimisticBase CaseOptimisticVery Optimistic
Very Low Inflation

27.38

-29.05%

35.64

-7.64%

39.21

1.61%

49.41

28.04%

59.78

54.91%
Current Inflation

25.96

-32.73%

33.51

-13.16%

36.80

-4.64%

45.81

18.71%

55.12

42.83%
Very High Inflation

24.13

-37.47%

30.79

-20.21%

33.73

-12.59%

41.28

6.97%

49.32

27.81%

Historical Harley-Davidson Fair Value Estimates


Very Pessimistic Case
Pessimistic Case
Fair Value
Optimistic Case
Very Optimistic Case
Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Harley-Davidson

View All Filings
Date Filed Form Type Document
Mar 13, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 24, 2023
10-K
Annual Report
Feb 13, 2023
SC 13G/A
Major Ownership Report
Feb 13, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 13, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 13, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 13, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 13, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 13, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 13, 2023
4
Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for HOG

Filter Transactions
Datesorted ascendingNameBuy/Sell$ ValueAvg. Price# SharesTitle
2023-03-09
ZEITZ JOCHEN
sold (taxes)
-107,860
41.31
-2,611
president and ceo
2023-03-09
ZEITZ JOCHEN
acquired
-
-
5,770
president and ceo
2023-02-09
Termaat Tori
sold (taxes)
-18,267
47.82
-382
chief human resources officer
2023-02-09
Krishnan Jagdish
sold (taxes)
-29,026
47.82
-607
chief digital officer
2023-02-09
Koval Glen
acquired
-
-
1,761
vp motorcycle development
2023-02-09
Goetter Gina M
sold (taxes)
-33,234
47.82
-695
chief financial officer
2023-02-09
Goetter Gina M
acquired
-
-
2,369
chief financial officer
2023-02-09
Root Jonathan R
acquired
-
-
1,307
svp - hdfsi
2023-02-09
Root Jonathan R
acquired
-
-
739
svp - hdfsi
2023-02-09
KORNETZKE MARK R
acquired
-
-
1,053
-

1–10 of 50

Jochen Zeitz
5800
Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, apparel, and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, including installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale protection products comprising motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and motorcycle maintenance protection. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

HOG Income Statement

2022-12-31
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS - USD ($)
$ in Thousands
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2022
Dec. 31, 2021
Dec. 31, 2020
Revenue:   
Motorcycles and related products$ 4,934,505$ 4,540,240$ 3,264,054
Financial services revenue820,625796,068790,323
Total revenue5,755,1305,336,3084,054,377
Costs and expenses:   
Motorcycles and related products cost of goods sold3,403,7283,243,2872,435,745
Financial services interest expense217,653192,944246,447
Financial services provision for credit losses145,13325,049181,870
Selling, administrative and engineering expense1,079,8821,048,1741,050,627
Restructuring (benefit) expense(544)3,415130,009
Total costs and expenses4,845,8524,512,8694,044,698
Operating income909,278823,4399,679
Other income (expense), net48,65220,076(1,848)
Investment income4,5386,6947,560
Interest expense31,23530,97231,121
Income (loss) before income taxes931,233819,237(15,730)
Income tax provision (benefit)192,019169,213(17,028)
Net income739,214650,0241,298
Less: Loss attributable to noncontrolling interests2,19400
Net income attributable to Harley-Davidson, Inc.$ 741,408$ 650,024$ 1,298
Earnings per share:   
Basic (in dollars per share)$ 5.01$ 4.23$ 0.01
Diluted (in dollars per share)4.964.190.01
Cash dividends per share (in dollars per share)$ 0.63$ 0.60$ 0.44

HOG Balance Sheet

2022-12-31
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS - USD ($)
$ in Thousands
Dec. 31, 2022
Dec. 31, 2021
ASSETS  
Cash and cash equivalents$ 1,433,175$ 1,874,745
Accounts receivable, net252,225182,148
Finance receivables, net of allowance of $62,488 and $60,7341,782,6311,465,544
Inventories, net950,960712,942
Restricted cash135,424128,935
Other current assets196,238185,777
Current assets4,750,6534,550,091
Finance receivables, net of allowance of $296,223 and $278,6455,355,8075,106,377
Property, plant and equipment, net689,886683,984
Pension and postretirement assets320,133386,152
Goodwill62,09063,177
Deferred income taxes135,04182,922
Lease assets43,93149,625
Other long-term assets134,935128,727
Assets11,492,47611,051,055
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY  
Accounts payable378,002374,978
Accrued liabilities620,945601,981
Short-term deposits, net79,71072,146
Short-term debt770,468751,286
Current portion of long-term debt, net1,684,7821,542,496
Current liabilities3,533,9073,342,887
Long-term deposits, net237,665218,180
Long-term debt, net4,457,0524,595,617
Lease liabilities26,77729,904
Pension and postretirement liabilities67,95595,299
Deferred income taxes29,5289,261
Other long-term liabilities232,784206,663
Commitments and contingencies
Shareholders’ equity:  
Preferred stock, none issued00
Common stock1,7041,694
Additional paid-in-capital1,688,1591,547,011
Retained earnings2,490,6491,842,421
Accumulated other comprehensive loss(341,929)(240,919)
Treasury stock, at cost(935,064)(596,963)
Total Harley-Davidson, Inc. shareholders' equity2,903,5192,553,244
Noncontrolling interest3,2890
Total equity2,906,8082,553,244
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity$ 11,492,476$ 11,051,055