Harley-Davidson Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD38.59-0.66

Market Closed

-1.68%

HOG Alerts

1 major insider sales recently.
Big jump in Earnings (Y/Y)

HOG Stock Price

HOG RSI Chart

HOG Valuation

Market Cap

6.3B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

10.14

Price/Sales (Trailing)

1.18

EV/EBITDA

11.65

Price/Free Cashflow

14.42

HOG Price/Sales (Trailing)

HOG Profitability

EBT Margin

16.18%

Return on Equity

25.53%

Return on Assets

6.45%

Free Cashflow Yield

6.93%

HOG Fundamentals

HOG Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

5.8B

Revenue Y/Y

12.38%

Revenue Q/Q

-30.71%

HOG Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

741.4M

Earnings Y/Y

94.14%

Earnings Q/Q

-83.97%

Price Action

52 Week Range

29.8051.77

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-9.7%

Last 30 days

-19.1%

Last 90 days

-12.8%

Trailing 12 Months

3.6%

HOG Financial Health

Current Ratio

1.34

Debt/Equity

2.5

Debt/Cashflow

0.09

HOG Investor Care

Dividend Yield

1.63%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

0.63

Buy Backs (1Y)

4.99%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

4.96

Peers (Alternatives to Harley-Davidson)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
TSLA	582.6B	81.5B	-7.29%	-32.49%	46.4	7.15	51.35%	127.50%
GM	50.1B	156.7B	-18.30%	-18.15%	5.04	0.32	23.41%	-0.85%
F	47.5B	158.1B	-10.54%	-25.09%	-22.09	0.3	15.93%	-112.02%
APTV	30.4B	17.5B	-3.57%	0.64%	51.17	1.74	11.98%	0.68%
BWA	11.0B	15.8B	-7.92%	26.25%	11.64	0.7	6.49%	75.79%
MID-CAP
HOG	6.3B	5.8B	-19.06%	3.64%	10.14	1.18	7.85%	14.06%
FOXF	4.9B	1.6B	-3.82%	13.95%	24.04	3.08	23.36%	25.31%
THO	4.3B	13.9B	-17.49%	-3.34%	5.46	0.31	-6.39%	-14.11%
SMALL-CAP
WGO	1.7B	4.8B	-16.12%	-3.83%	4.97	0.37	19.08%	8.38%
TEN	1.7B	18.6B	8.17%	58.15%	-7.03	0.09	1.85%	-200.42%
AXL	891.6M	5.8B	-18.94%	-4.84%	13.87	0.15	12.52%	989.83%
SRI	486.9M	899.9M	-26.03%	-3.76%	-23.81	0.54	16.80%	-255.49%
WKHS	248.4M	5.0M	-23.12%	-52.63%	-2.12	49.45	105.05%	70.78%
AYRO	18.8M	3.2M	-27.19%	-57.50%	-0.78	5.88	20.43%	20.10%
FUV	3.4M	5.0M	-31.86%	-77.58%	-0.05	0.68	17.40%	-129.43%

Financials for Harley-Davidson

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	2.2%	5,755	5,629	5,346	5,409	5,336
S&GA Expenses	3.7%	1,080	1,041	1,030	1,056	1,048
Costs and Expenses	2.4%	4,846	4,731	4,582	4,642	4,513
EBITDA	1.8%	962	946	962	965	-
EBITDA Margin	-0.4%	0.17*	0.17*	0.18*	0.18*	-
Earnings Before Taxes	1.9%	931	914	770	770	819
EBT Margin	-0.4%	0.16*	0.16*	0.14*	0.14*	-
Interest Expenses	-0.3%	31.00	31.00	31.00	31.00	31.00
Net Income	2.8%	741	721	623	613	650
Net Income Margin	0.6%	0.13*	0.13*	0.12*	0.11*	-
Free Cahsflow	-17.5%	397	481	438	823	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	-3.6%	11,492	11,928	12,122	10,895	11,051
Current Assets	-5.2%	4,751	5,012	5,308	4,387	4,550
Cash Equivalents	-17.2%	1,433	1,730	2,194	1,394	1,875
Inventory	39.7%	951	681	727	714	713
Net PPE	7.5%	690	642	652	664	684
Goodwill	2.7%	62.00	60.00	62.00	63.00	63.00
Current Liabilities	-4.0%	3,534	3,680	3,676	3,283	3,343
. Short Term Borrowings	11.3%	770	693	701	816	751
Long Term Debt	22.3%	7,092	5,797	6,138	-	-
LT Debt, Current	-3.2%	1,685	1,740	1,888	1,327	1,542
LT Debt, Non Current	-5.9%	4,457	4,738	5,204	4,470	4,596
Shareholder's Equity	2.2%	2,904	2,840	2,635	2,509	2,553
Retained Earnings	0.8%	2,491	2,472	2,234	2,041	1,842
Additional Paid-In Capital	7.1%	1,688	1,576	1,564	1,555	1,547
Accumulated Depreciation	-	2,271	-	-	-	-
Minority Interest	Infinity%	3.00	-	-	-	-

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	-12.2%	548	625	576	952	976
Share Based Compensation	-8.3%	39.00	42.00	42.00	-	-
Cashflow From Investing	-15.4%	-773	-669	-567	-553	-459
Cashflow From Financing	-80.5%	-201	-111	546	-1,355	-1,884
Dividend Payments	-0.1%	93.00	93.00	93.00	93.00	92.00
Buy Backs	0.0%	339	339	327	268	12.00

Risks for HOG

What is the probability of a big loss on HOG?

99.6%

Probability that Harley-Davidson stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

36.9%

Probability that Harley-Davidson stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

19.2%

Probability that Harley-Davidson stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does HOG drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Harley-Davidson was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for HOG

Cumulative Returns on HOG

-1.2%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

-0.7%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

-0.2%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

19.3%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for HOG?

FIve years rolling returns for Harley-Davidson.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold HOG recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	added	10.2	438,723	1,836,720	-%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	added	710	22,000	24,000	-%
2023-03-02	OLIVER LAGORE VANVALIN INVESTMENT GROUP	new	-	7,530	7,530	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	reduced	-22.19	-275,179	3,543,820	-%
2023-02-27	Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P.	added	2.46	281,890	1,550,890	-%
2023-02-24	NATIXIS	sold off	-100	-6,806,000	-	-%
2023-02-22	TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY	reduced	-8.6	72,000	884,000	0.01%
2023-02-22	CVA Family Office, LLC	added	60.00	1,328	3,328	-%
2023-02-21	NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC	reduced	-35.91	-157,862	512,138	0.01%
2023-02-21	NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO	added	2.19	46,992	265,992	-%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying HOG calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own HOG

No. of Funds

Harley-Davidson News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Harley-Davidson

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 13, 2023	boston partners	7.11%	10,395,116	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	8.99%	13,138,917	SC 13G/A
Feb 03, 2023	blackrock inc.	8.0%	11,762,724	SC 13G/A
Jan 09, 2023	beutel, goodman & co ltd.	5.00%	7,316,927	SC 13G
Feb 11, 2022	boston partners	7.6%	11,689,106	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2022	vanguard group inc	9.13%	14,043,248	SC 13G/A
Feb 03, 2022	h partners management, llc	8.2%	12,600,000	SC 13D/A
Feb 01, 2022	blackrock inc.	8.1%	12,533,168	SC 13G/A
Jan 31, 2022	invesco ltd.	1.2%	1,886,754	SC 13G/A
Dec 16, 2021	h partners management, llc	8.0%	12,300,000	SC 13D

HOG Fair Value

Harley-Davidson fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Harley-Davidson for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	27.38 -29.05%	35.64 -7.64%	39.21 1.61%	49.41 28.04%	59.78 54.91%
Current Inflation	25.96 -32.73%	33.51 -13.16%	36.80 -4.64%	45.81 18.71%	55.12 42.83%
Very High Inflation	24.13 -37.47%	30.79 -20.21%	33.73 -12.59%	41.28 6.97%	49.32 27.81%

Historical Harley-Davidson Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Harley-Davidson

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 13, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 24, 2023	10-K	Annual Report
Feb 13, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 13, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 13, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 13, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 13, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 13, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 13, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 13, 2023	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for HOG

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-09	ZEITZ JOCHEN	sold (taxes)	-107,860	41.31	-2,611	president and ceo
2023-03-09	ZEITZ JOCHEN	acquired	-	-	5,770	president and ceo
2023-02-09	Termaat Tori	sold (taxes)	-18,267	47.82	-382	chief human resources officer
2023-02-09	Krishnan Jagdish	sold (taxes)	-29,026	47.82	-607	chief digital officer
2023-02-09	Koval Glen	acquired	-	-	1,761	vp motorcycle development
2023-02-09	Goetter Gina M	sold (taxes)	-33,234	47.82	-695	chief financial officer
2023-02-09	Goetter Gina M	acquired	-	-	2,369	chief financial officer
2023-02-09	Root Jonathan R	acquired	-	-	1,307	svp - hdfsi
2023-02-09	Root Jonathan R	acquired	-	-	739	svp - hdfsi
2023-02-09	KORNETZKE MARK R	acquired	-	-	1,053	-

About Harley-Davidson

Jochen Zeitz

www.harley-davidson.com

5800

Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles. The company operates in two segments, Motorcycles and Related Products and Financial Services. The Motorcycles and Related Products segment designs, manufactures, and sells Harley-Davidson motorcycles, including cruiser, touring, standard, sportbike, and dual models, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, apparel, and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, including installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale protection products comprising motorcycle insurance, extended service contracts, and motorcycle maintenance protection. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

HOG Income Statement

2022-12-31

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS - USD ($) $ in Thousands	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
Revenue:
Motorcycles and related products	$ 4,934,505	$ 4,540,240	$ 3,264,054
Financial services revenue	820,625	796,068	790,323
Total revenue	5,755,130	5,336,308	4,054,377
Costs and expenses:
Motorcycles and related products cost of goods sold	3,403,728	3,243,287	2,435,745
Financial services interest expense	217,653	192,944	246,447
Financial services provision for credit losses	145,133	25,049	181,870
Selling, administrative and engineering expense	1,079,882	1,048,174	1,050,627
Restructuring (benefit) expense	(544)	3,415	130,009
Total costs and expenses	4,845,852	4,512,869	4,044,698
Operating income	909,278	823,439	9,679
Other income (expense), net	48,652	20,076	(1,848)
Investment income	4,538	6,694	7,560
Interest expense	31,235	30,972	31,121
Income (loss) before income taxes	931,233	819,237	(15,730)
Income tax provision (benefit)	192,019	169,213	(17,028)
Net income	739,214	650,024	1,298
Less: Loss attributable to noncontrolling interests	2,194	0	0
Net income attributable to Harley-Davidson, Inc.	$ 741,408	$ 650,024	$ 1,298
Earnings per share:
Basic (in dollars per share)	$ 5.01	$ 4.23	$ 0.01
Diluted (in dollars per share)	4.96	4.19	0.01
Cash dividends per share (in dollars per share)	$ 0.63	$ 0.60	$ 0.44

HOG Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
ASSETS
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 1,433,175	$ 1,874,745
Accounts receivable, net	252,225	182,148
Finance receivables, net of allowance of $62,488 and $60,734	1,782,631	1,465,544
Inventories, net	950,960	712,942
Restricted cash	135,424	128,935
Other current assets	196,238	185,777
Current assets	4,750,653	4,550,091
Finance receivables, net of allowance of $296,223 and $278,645	5,355,807	5,106,377
Property, plant and equipment, net	689,886	683,984
Pension and postretirement assets	320,133	386,152
Goodwill	62,090	63,177
Deferred income taxes	135,041	82,922
Lease assets	43,931	49,625
Other long-term assets	134,935	128,727
Assets	11,492,476	11,051,055
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY
Accounts payable	378,002	374,978
Accrued liabilities	620,945	601,981
Short-term deposits, net	79,710	72,146
Short-term debt	770,468	751,286
Current portion of long-term debt, net	1,684,782	1,542,496
Current liabilities	3,533,907	3,342,887
Long-term deposits, net	237,665	218,180
Long-term debt, net	4,457,052	4,595,617
Lease liabilities	26,777	29,904
Pension and postretirement liabilities	67,955	95,299
Deferred income taxes	29,528	9,261
Other long-term liabilities	232,784	206,663
Commitments and contingencies
Shareholders’ equity:
Preferred stock, none issued	0	0
Common stock	1,704	1,694
Additional paid-in-capital	1,688,159	1,547,011
Retained earnings	2,490,649	1,842,421
Accumulated other comprehensive loss	(341,929)	(240,919)
Treasury stock, at cost	(935,064)	(596,963)
Total Harley-Davidson, Inc. shareholders' equity	2,903,519	2,553,244
Noncontrolling interest	3,289	0
Total equity	2,906,808	2,553,244
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity	$ 11,492,476	$ 11,051,055