Grand Canyon Education Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD110.22+1.80

Delayed

1.66%

LOPE Stock Price

LOPE RSI Chart

LOPE Valuation

Market Cap

3.4B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

18.54

Price/Sales (Trailing)

3.76

EV/EBITDA

13.75

Price/Free Cashflow

15.5

LOPE Price/Sales (Trailing)

LOPE Profitability

EBT Margin

26.35%

Return on Equity

28.96%

Return on Assets

22.18%

Free Cashflow Yield

6.45%

LOPE Fundamentals

LOPE Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

911.3M

Revenue Y/Y

2.91%

Revenue Q/Q

23.95%

LOPE Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

184.7M

Earnings Y/Y

-16.55%

Earnings Q/Q

136.69%

Price Action

52 Week Range

78.37121.60

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-2.1%

Last 30 days

-6.2%

Last 90 days

2.6%

Trailing 12 Months

17.1%

LOPE Financial Health

Current Ratio

2.74

LOPE Investor Care

Buy Backs (1Y)

17.67%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

5.73

Peers (Alternatives to Grand Canyon Education)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
MGM	15.9B	13.1B	-6.98%	2.39%	10.8	1.21	35.61%	17.44%
WYNN	12.2B	3.8B	-4.04%	50.83%	-28.74	3.24	-0.18%	43.92%
MID-CAP
SCI	10.1B	4.1B	-9.28%	3.97%	17.85	2.46	-0.83%	-29.59%
MTN	8.9B	2.8B	-15.12%	-10.88%	26.51	3.15	29.86%	54.02%
HRB	6.7B	3.5B	-12.48%	35.87%	12.03	1.92	-	-
BFAM	4.6B	2.0B	5.76%	-40.61%	56.56	2.26	15.11%	14.45%
PENN	4.4B	6.4B	-15.76%	-37.11%	19.6	0.68	8.41%	-47.22%
LOPE	3.4B	911.3M	-6.24%	17.06%	18.54	3.76	1.64%	-29.07%
GHC	2.8B	3.9B	-16.96%	-4.84%	41.26	0.71	23.18%	-80.95%
STRA	2.1B	1.1B	-10.08%	41.71%	45.24	1.98	-5.85%	-15.28%
CHGG	2.1B	766.9M	-4.27%	-47.65%	7.8	2.71	-1.21%	18387.93%
SMALL-CAP
LRN	1.7B	1.8B	-7.38%	21.46%	17.22	0.97	10.07%	40.67%
ATGE	1.7B	1.4B	-10.61%	37.39%	4.39	1.17	29.69%	6022.49%
PRDO	898.1M	695.2M	-8.22%	18.95%	9.37	1.29	0.31%	-12.56%
APEI	84.1M	606.3M	-64.04%	-79.48%	-0.73	0.14	44.78%	-747.77%

Financials for Grand Canyon Education

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	0.8%	911	904	902	904	897
S&GA Expenses	3.3%	45.00	44.00	43.00	42.00	42.00
Costs and Expenses	2.9%	674	655	643	628	614
EBITDA	-7.2%	240	259	283	314	-
EBITDA Margin	-7.9%	0.26*	0.29*	0.31*	0.35*	-
Earnings Before Taxes	-6.6%	240	257	281	311	331
EBT Margin	-7.3%	0.26*	0.28*	0.31*	0.34*	-
Interest Expenses	-99.9%	0.00	2.00	3.00	4.00	-
Net Income	-6.9%	185	198	216	240	260
Net Income Margin	-7.6%	0.20*	0.22*	0.24*	0.27*	-
Free Cahsflow	2.9%	221	215	249	294	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	6.1%	833	785	787	918	1,223
Current Assets	22.4%	273	223	250	380	681
Cash Equivalents	201.9%	120	40.00	139	202	601
Net PPE	1.8%	148	145	140	137	136
Goodwill	0%	161	161	161	161	161
Liabilities	1.1%	195	193	181	212	178
Current Liabilities	4.3%	100	96.00	104	133	98.00
Shareholder's Equity	7.8%	638	592	607	706	1,045
Retained Earnings	3.6%	2,040	1,969	1,939	1,913	1,855
Additional Paid-In Capital	1.0%	309	306	303	300	297
Shares Outstanding	-1.0%	31.00	31.00	32.00	33.00	38.00

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	2.9%	221	215	249	294	313
Share Based Compensation	2.8%	13.00	12.00	12.00	12.00	12.00
Cashflow From Investing	-111.2%	-97.14	867	1,111	916	951
Cashflow From Financing	45.2%	-604	-1,102	-1,290	-1,233	-908
Buy Backs	-40.8%	604	1,020	1,164	1,134	804

Risks for LOPE

What is the probability of a big loss on LOPE?

86.2%

Probability that Grand Canyon Education stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

35.8%

Probability that Grand Canyon Education stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

10%

Probability that Grand Canyon Education stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does LOPE drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Grand Canyon Education was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for LOPE

Cumulative Returns on LOPE

16.3%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

14.6%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

0.6%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

12.6%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for LOPE?

FIve years rolling returns for Grand Canyon Education.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold LOPE recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-15	B. Riley Wealth Advisors, Inc.	new	-	413,373	413,373	0.01%
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	added	19.89	794,667	2,265,670	-%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	unchanged	-	2,000	3,000	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	added	11.98	167,911	550,911	-%
2023-02-27	Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P.	new	-	143,486	143,486	-%
2023-02-24	SRS Capital Advisors, Inc.	unchanged	-	374	1,374	-%
2023-02-24	NATIXIS	added	56.94	2,406,830	4,775,830	0.03%
2023-02-22	TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY	reduced	-22.72	-5,000	539,000	0.01%
2023-02-21	NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC	reduced	-38.51	-80,031	299,969	0.01%
2023-02-21	NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO	new	-	1,374	1,374	-%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying LOPE calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own LOPE

No. of Funds

Grand Canyon Education News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Grand Canyon Education

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	9.37%	2,918,849	SC 13G/A
Feb 08, 2023	riverbridge partners llc	6.61%	1,839,431	SC 13G
Feb 08, 2023	riverbridge partners llc	6.61%	1,839,431	SC 13G/A
Feb 07, 2023	blackrock inc.	9.7%	3,008,983	SC 13G/A
May 09, 2022	blackrock inc.	10.3%	3,375,524	SC 13G
Mar 09, 2022	vanguard group inc	10.36%	3,658,710	SC 13G/A
Feb 03, 2022	blackrock inc.	8.3%	3,330,145	SC 13G/A
Jan 21, 2022	riverbridge partners llc	6.95%	2,784,752	SC 13G/A
Dec 09, 2021	vanguard group inc	10.28%	4,117,733	SC 13G/A
Feb 11, 2021	william blair investment management, llc	8.70%	4,081,286	SC 13G/A

LOPE Fair Value

Grand Canyon Education fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Grand Canyon Education for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	59.79 -45.75%	72.13 -34.56%	119.05 8.01%	146.08 32.53%	170.63 54.81%
Current Inflation	56.76 -48.50%	68.10 -38.21%	106.78 -3.12%	129.45 17.45%	150.02 36.11%
Very High Inflation	52.86 -52.04%	62.92 -42.91%	92.21 -16.34%	110.01 -0.19%	126.14 14.44%

Historical Grand Canyon Education Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Grand Canyon Education

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 16, 2023	10-K	Annual Report
Feb 16, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Feb 09, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report

Latest Insider Trading transactions for LOPE

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-01	Marsh Dilek	sold (taxes)	-179,453	113	-1,579	chief technology officer
2023-03-01	BACHUS DANIEL E	sold (taxes)	-350,156	113	-3,081	chief financial officer
2023-03-01	Browning Lori	sold (taxes)	-129,561	113	-1,140	chief accounting officer
2023-03-01	Briggs Daniel J.	sold (taxes)	-188,432	113	-1,658	orbis education, ceo
2023-03-01	MUELLER BRIAN E	sold (taxes)	-666,785	113	-5,867	ceo
2023-03-01	Claypatch Kathy J.	sold (taxes)	-73,417	113	-646	chief information officer
2023-03-01	Meyer William Stan	sold (taxes)	-350,156	113	-3,081	chief operating officer
2023-01-25	Meyer William Stan	acquired	-	-	5,727	chief operating officer
2023-01-25	Claypatch Kathy J.	acquired	-	-	2,234	chief information officer
2023-01-25	Browning Lori	acquired	-	-	2,234	chief accounting officer

About Grand Canyon Education

Brian E. Mueller

www.gcu.edu

4960

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. provides education services to colleges and universities in the United States. The company's technology services include learning management system, internal administration, infrastructure, and support services; academic services comprises program and curriculum, faculty and related training and development, class scheduling, and skills and simulation lab sites; and counseling services and support include admission, financial aid, and field experience and other counseling services. It also offers marketing and communication services, such as lead acquisition, digital communications strategy, brand identity, market research, media planning and strategy, video, and business intelligence and data science; and back-office services comprising finance and accounting, human resources, audit, and procurement services. The company, through its subsidiary, Orbis Education Services, LLC, supports healthcare education programs for 27 universities. Grand Canyon Education, Inc. was founded in 1949 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona.

LOPE Income Statement

2022-12-31

Consolidated Income Statements - USD ($) shares in Thousands, $ in Thousands	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
Consolidated Income Statements
Service revenue	$ 911,306	$ 896,564	$ 844,096
Costs and expenses:
Technology and academic services	150,493	132,078	116,012
Counseling services and support	273,313	249,179	234,534
Marketing and communication	196,090	182,872	164,334
General and administrative	45,491	41,826	43,360
Amortization of intangible assets	8,419	8,419	8,419
Total costs and expenses	673,806	614,374	566,659
Operating income	237,500	282,190	277,437
Interest income on Secured Note		52,090	59,190
Interest expense	(2)	(3,601)	(4,402)
Investment interest and other	2,621	610	915
Income before income taxes	240,119	331,289	333,140
Income tax expense	55,444	70,945	75,944
Net income	$ 184,675	$ 260,344	$ 257,196
Earnings per share:
Basic income per share	$ 5.75	$ 5.94	$ 5.49
Diluted income per share	$ 5.73	$ 5.92	$ 5.45
Basic weighted average shares outstanding	32,131	43,835	46,880
Diluted weighted average shares outstanding	32,237	43,958	47,165

LOPE Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 120,409	$ 600,941
Investments	61,295	0
Accounts receivable, net	77,413	70,063
Income tax receivable	2,788	1,275
Other current assets	11,368	8,766
Total current assets	273,273	681,045
Property and equipment, net	147,504	136,120
Right-of-use assets	72,719	57,652
Amortizable intangible assets, net	176,800	185,219
Goodwill	160,766	160,766
Other assets	1,687	1,943
Total assets	832,749	1,222,745
Current liabilities
Accounts payable	20,006	24,306
Accrued compensation and benefits	36,412	32,714
Accrued liabilities	22,473	27,593
Income taxes payable	12,167	5,895
Deferred revenue		10
Current portion of lease liability	8,648	7,426
Total current liabilities	99,706	97,944
Deferred income taxes, noncurrent	26,195	25,962
Other long-term liability	436	37
Lease liability, less current portion	68,793	53,755
Total liabilities	195,130	177,698
Commitments and contingencies
Stockholders' equity
Preferred stock, $0.01 par value, 10,000 shares authorized; 0 shares issued and outstanding at December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021
Common stock, $0.01 par value, 100,000 shares authorized; 53,830 and 53,637 shares issued and 31,058 and 37,722 shares outstanding at December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively	538	536
Treasury stock, at cost, 22,772 and 15,915 shares of common stock at December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively	(1,711,423)	(1,107,211)
Additional paid-in capital	309,310	296,670
Accumulated other comprehensive loss	(533)
Retained earnings	2,039,727	1,855,052
Total stockholders' equity	637,619	1,045,047
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity	$ 832,749	$ 1,222,745