K12 Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD39.57+0.06

Market Closed

0.15%

LRN Stock Price

LRN RSI Chart

LRN Valuation

Market Cap

1.7B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

17.22

Price/Sales (Trailing)

0.97

EV/EBITDA

7.51

Price/Free Cashflow

7.42

LRN Price/Sales (Trailing)

LRN Profitability

EBT Margin

7.81%

Return on Equity

11.76%

Return on Assets

6.12%

Free Cashflow Yield

13.48%

LRN Fundamentals

LRN Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

1.8B

Revenue Y/Y

11.95%

Revenue Q/Q

7.83%

LRN Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

99.0M

Earnings Y/Y

20.71%

Earnings Q/Q

323.65%

Price Action

52 Week Range

30.6647.20

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-9.8%

Last 30 days

-7.4%

Last 90 days

20.0%

Trailing 12 Months

21.5%

LRN Financial Health

Current Ratio

3.73

Debt/Equity

0.49

Debt/Cashflow

0.58

LRN Investor Care

Shares Dilution (1Y)

3.78%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

2.32

Peers (Alternatives to K12)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
MGM	15.9B	13.1B	-6.98%	2.39%	10.8	1.21	35.61%	17.44%
WYNN	12.2B	3.8B	-4.04%	50.83%	-28.74	3.24	-0.18%	43.92%
MID-CAP
SCI	10.1B	4.1B	-9.28%	3.97%	17.85	2.46	-0.83%	-29.59%
MTN	8.9B	2.8B	-15.12%	-10.88%	26.51	3.15	29.86%	54.02%
HRB	6.7B	3.5B	-12.48%	35.87%	12.03	1.92	-	-
BFAM	4.6B	2.0B	5.76%	-40.61%	56.56	2.26	15.11%	14.45%
PENN	4.4B	6.4B	-15.76%	-37.11%	19.6	0.68	8.41%	-47.22%
LOPE	3.4B	911.3M	-6.24%	17.06%	18.54	3.76	1.64%	-29.07%
GHC	2.8B	3.9B	-16.96%	-4.84%	41.26	0.71	23.18%	-80.95%
STRA	2.1B	1.1B	-10.08%	41.71%	45.24	1.98	-5.85%	-15.28%
CHGG	2.1B	766.9M	-4.27%	-47.65%	7.8	2.71	-1.21%	18387.93%
SMALL-CAP
LRN	1.7B	1.8B	-7.38%	21.46%	17.22	0.97	10.07%	40.67%
ATGE	1.7B	1.4B	-10.61%	37.39%	4.39	1.17	29.69%	6022.49%
PRDO	898.1M	695.2M	-8.22%	18.95%	9.37	1.29	0.31%	-12.56%
APEI	84.1M	606.3M	-64.04%	-79.48%	-0.73	0.14	44.78%	-747.77%

Financials for K12

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	2.9%	1,761	1,712	1,687	1,629	1,599
Gross Profit	3.8%	622	600	596	565	550
S&GA Expenses	2.4%	476	465	440	433	440
EBITDA	5.9%	240	226	245	224	-
EBITDA Margin	2.9%	0.14*	0.13*	0.15*	0.14*	-
Earnings Before Taxes	8.7%	137	126	147	125	100
EBT Margin	5.7%	0.08*	0.07*	0.09*	0.08*	-
Net Income	9.6%	99.00	90.00	107	90.00	70.00
Net Income Margin	6.6%	0.06*	0.05*	0.06*	0.05*	-
Free Cahsflow	23.7%	230	186	197	199	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	-0.2%	1,619	1,622	1,644	1,575	1,526
Current Assets	-0.2%	929	931	951	872	816
Cash Equivalents	63.6%	318	195	389	309	257
Inventory	-14.2%	24.00	28.00	36.00	24.00	24.00
Goodwill	4643.8%	247	5.00	241	241	241
Liabilities	-6.9%	777	835	831	794	792
Current Liabilities	-13.8%	249	289	302	250	238
Long Term Debt	0.1%	412	412	411	411	411
Shareholder's Equity	7.0%	842	787	813	781	734
Retained Earnings	24.8%	255	205	227	199	156
Additional Paid-In Capital	0.7%	689	684	687	684	681
Shares Outstanding	0.1%	43.00	43.00	43.00	43.00	42.00
Float	-	1,015	-	-	-	-

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	22.8%	240	195	207	204	202
Share Based Compensation	27.5%	20.00	16.00	19.00	23.00	30.00
Cashflow From Investing	6.9%	-106	-114	-110	-149	-130
Cashflow From Financing	31.1%	-72.84	-105	-93.31	-76.39	-73.29

Risks for LRN

What is the probability of a big loss on LRN?

84.2%

Probability that K12 stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

47.3%

Probability that K12 stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

36.5%

Probability that K12 stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does LRN drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if K12 was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for LRN

Cumulative Returns on LRN

5.5%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

20.7%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

21.6%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

18.2%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for LRN?

FIve years rolling returns for K12.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold LRN recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	added	12.87	-193,900	1,017,100	-%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	reduced	-29.48	-51,000	54,000	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	unchanged	-	-168,715	492,285	-%
2023-02-22	TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY	added	55.04	52,000	390,000	-%
2023-02-21	NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO	sold off	-100	-89,000	-	-%
2023-02-21	MACQUARIE GROUP LTD	sold off	-	-22,000	-	-%
2023-02-17	TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP	new	-	292,843	292,843	-%
2023-02-15	Steward Partners Investment Advisory, LLC	unchanged	-	-10,720	31,280	-%
2023-02-15	Kiwi Wealth Investments Limited Partnership	reduced	-0.21	-554,378	1,806,950	0.12%
2023-02-15	State of Wyoming	sold off	-100	-150,000	-	-%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying LRN calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own LRN

No. of Funds

K12 News

Schedule 13G FIlings of K12

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 13, 2023	boston partners	4.21%	1,811,476	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2023	dimensional fund advisors lp	7.3%	3,143,232	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	11.02%	4,743,708	SC 13G/A
Feb 07, 2023	blackrock inc.	15.4%	6,633,681	SC 13G/A
May 10, 2022	vanguard group inc	10.02%	4,285,669	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2022	boston partners	5.0%	2,138,987	SC 13G
Feb 08, 2022	dimensional fund advisors lp	6.6%	2,823,246	SC 13G/A
Feb 03, 2022	blackrock inc.	7.1%	3,020,389	SC 13G/A
Feb 12, 2021	dimensional fund advisors lp	7.6%	3,174,839	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2021	vanguard group inc	8.56%	3,554,797	SC 13G/A

LRN Fair Value

K12 fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for K12 for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	29.05 -26.59%	34.50 -12.81%	53.08 34.14%	80.93 104.52%	97.26 145.79%
Current Inflation	27.08 -31.56%	31.74 -19.79%	47.65 20.42%	71.35 80.31%	85.08 115.01%
Very High Inflation	24.63 -37.76%	28.38 -28.28%	41.20 4.12%	60.16 52.03%	70.97 79.35%

Historical K12 Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of K12

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Feb 14, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 14, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 14, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 14, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 13, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 10, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 09, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 07, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Jan 27, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Jan 27, 2023	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for LRN

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-02-13	Blackman Donna	sold (taxes)	-9,641	42.66	-226	chief financial officer
2023-02-13	Mathis Vincent	sold (taxes)	-60,363	42.66	-1,415	evp, general counsel
2023-02-13	Rhyu James Jeaho	sold (taxes)	-188,515	42.66	-4,419	chief executive officer
2023-02-13	Ottolenghi Les	sold (taxes)	-18,301	42.66	-429	chief info. & tech. officer
2023-02-12	Mathis Vincent	sold (taxes)	-72,217	41.6	-1,736	evp, general counsel
2023-02-12	Rhyu James Jeaho	sold (taxes)	-177,757	41.6	-4,273	chief executive officer
2023-02-12	Blackman Donna	sold (taxes)	-58,323	41.6	-1,402	chief financial officer
2023-02-12	Ottolenghi Les	sold (taxes)	-17,180	41.6	-413	chief info. & tech. officer
2023-01-26	Rhyu James Jeaho	sold (taxes)	-312,818	40.11	-7,799	chief executive officer
2023-01-26	Rhyu James Jeaho	sold	-1,438,650	40.49	-35,531	chief executive officer

About K12

LRN Income Statement

2022-12-31

UNAUDITED CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS - USD ($) $ in Thousands	3 Months Ended		6 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
UNAUDITED CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
Revenues	$ 458,435	$ 409,507	$ 883,585	$ 809,733
Instructional costs and services	288,347	261,950	583,848	535,774
Gross margin	170,088	147,557	299,737	273,959
Selling, general, and administrative expenses	102,015	90,642	260,383	224,021
Income from operations	68,073	56,915	39,354	49,938
Interest expense, net	(2,082)	(1,875)	(4,128)	(3,868)
Other income, net	3,970	3,884	5,007	3,795
Income before income taxes and loss from equity method investments	69,961	58,924	40,233	49,865
Income tax expense	(18,860)	(15,928)	(11,353)	(13,035)
Loss from equity method investments	(396)	(992)	(847)	(709)
Net income attributable to common stockholders	$ 50,705	$ 42,004	$ 28,033	$ 36,121
Net income attributable to common stockholders per share:
Basic (in dollars per share)	$ 1.20	$ 1.01	$ 0.66	$ 0.88
Diluted (in dollars per share)	$ 1.19	$ 1.00	$ 0.66	$ 0.85
Weighted average shares used in computing per share amounts:
Basic (in shares)	42,259,061	41,525,736	42,167,844	41,042,401
Diluted (in shares)	42,547,334	41,963,399	42,602,405	42,413,828

LRN Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

UNAUDITED CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Dec. 31, 2022	Jun. 30, 2022
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 318,279	$ 389,398
Accounts receivable, net of allowance of $25,744 and $26,993	442,166	418,558
Inventories, net	23,960	36,003
Prepaid expenses	43,822	25,974
Other current assets	100,588	80,601
Total current assets	928,815	950,534
Operating lease right-of-use assets, net	75,823	85,457
Property and equipment, net	68,124	61,537
Capitalized software, net	76,192	71,800
Capitalized curriculum development costs, net	50,557	50,580
Intangible assets, net	83,410	88,669
Goodwill	246,676	241,022
Deposits and other assets	89,694	93,946
Total assets	1,619,291	1,643,545
Current liabilities
Accounts payable	32,809	61,997
Accrued liabilities	40,909	63,200
Accrued compensation and benefits	34,083	73,027
Deferred revenue	83,799	53,630
Current portion of finance lease liability	44,377	37,389
Current portion of operating lease liability	13,281	12,830
Total current liabilities	249,258	302,073
Long-term finance lease liability	28,925	28,888
Long-term operating lease liability	65,827	75,127
Long-term debt	412,260	411,438
Deferred tax liability	10,752	3,205
Other long-term liabilities	10,370	10,233
Total liabilities	777,392	830,964
Commitments and contingencies
Stockholders' equity
Preferred stock, par value $0.0001; 10,000,000 shares authorized; zero shares issued or outstanding
Common stock, par value $0.0001; 100,000,000 shares authorized; 48,431,576 and 48,112,664 shares issued; and 43,096,833 and 42,777,921 shares outstanding, respectively	4	4
Additional paid-in capital	688,695	687,454
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)	187	143
Retained earnings	255,495	227,462
Treasury stock of 5,334,743 shares at cost	(102,482)	(102,482)
Total stockholders' equity	841,899	812,581
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity	$ 1,619,291	$ 1,643,545