Medifast Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD104.46+1.45

Market Closed

1.41%

MED Alerts

1 major insider buys and 1 major insider sales recently.
Big fall in Revenue (Y/Y)

MED Stock Price

MED RSI Chart

MED Valuation

Market Cap

1.1B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

7.91

Price/Sales (Trailing)

0.71

EV/EBITDA

5.37

Price/Free Cashflow

6.38

MED Price/Sales (Trailing)

MED Profitability

Operating Margin

71.34%

EBT Margin

11.51%

Return on Equity

92.6%

Return on Assets

45.4%

Free Cashflow Yield

15.66%

MED Fundamentals

MED Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

1.6B

Revenue Y/Y

-10.74%

Revenue Q/Q

-13.62%

MED Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

143.6M

Earnings Y/Y

-22.06%

Earnings Q/Q

-26.65%

Price Action

52 Week Range

96.00195.49

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-4.0%

Last 30 days

-6.9%

Last 90 days

-8.5%

Trailing 12 Months

-38.1%

MED Financial Health

Current Ratio

1.58

MED Investor Care

Dividend Yield

6.28%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

6.56

Buy Backs (1Y)

6.21%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

12.73

Peers (Alternatives to Medifast)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
PG	338.6B	80.3B	1.26%	-3.79%	23.71	4.22	2.47%	-1.59%
EL	84.9B	16.4B	-7.24%	-8.31%	56.2	5.19	-7.75%	-53.65%
CL	60.9B	18.0B	-1.14%	-1.59%	34.13	3.39	3.13%	-17.59%
KMB	42.8B	20.2B	-3.29%	4.87%	22.15	2.12	3.78%	6.62%
CLX	19.1B	7.1B	2.26%	22.62%	43.96	2.71	-0.21%	76.11%
MID-CAP
COTY	9.4B	5.3B	-3.49%	27.42%	67.46	1.78	4.52%	-56.15%
IPAR	4.5B	1.1B	17.53%	70.15%	37.46	4.17	23.55%	38.36%
BRBR	4.0B	1.4B	-2.42%	20.66%	34.13	2.83	12.31%	322.50%
ELF	4.0B	496.6M	-0.15%	206.44%	84.36	7.96	30.80%	132.00%
EPC	2.1B	2.2B	-7.23%	10.56%	21.52	0.98	3.72%	-10.14%
SMALL-CAP
USNA	1.2B	998.6M	-1.47%	-26.87%	17.4	1.21	-15.83%	-40.47%
MED	1.1B	1.6B	-6.88%	-38.08%	7.91	0.71	4.75%	-12.48%
REV	214.9M	-	-40.09%	-62.17%	-0.3	0.1	-	-56.86%
UG	47.8M	13.6M	-11.34%	-41.75%	15.89	3.51	7.56%	-27.60%

Financials for Medifast

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	-2.5%	1,599	1,639	1,662	1,603	1,526
Cost Of Revenue	0.9%	458	454	453	422	398
Gross Profit	-3.8%	1,140	1,185	1,209	1,181	1,128
S&GA Expenses	-3.1%	956	986	1,003	963	911
EBITDA	-6.9%	195	209	215	226	-
EBITDA Margin	-4.5%	0.12*	0.13*	0.13*	0.14*	-
Earnings Before Taxes	-7.2%	184	198	206	218	216
EBT Margin	-4.9%	0.12*	0.12*	0.12*	0.14*	-
Net Income	-5.0%	144	151	157	165	164
Net Income Margin	-2.6%	0.09*	0.09*	0.09*	0.10*	-
Free Cahsflow	53.2%	178	116	68.00	40.00	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	-3.1%	316	326	341	421	398
Current Assets	-3.0%	223	230	243	324	307
Cash Equivalents	25.8%	88.00	70.00	61.00	118	104
Inventory	-18.2%	119	145	157	189	180
Net PPE	-1.6%	57.00	58.00	59.00	58.00	56.00
Liabilities	-8.3%	161	176	211	205	196
Current Liabilities	-8.7%	141	154	188	181	170
Shareholder's Equity	3.0%	155	151	129	216	202
Retained Earnings	6.3%	140	132	129	203	190
Additional Paid-In Capital	15.8%	22.00	19.00	-	13.00	12.00
Shares Outstanding	-0.5%	11.00	11.00	11.00	12.00	12.00

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	43.7%	195	135	96.00	73.00	95.00
Share Based Compensation	-3.0%	11.00	11.00	11.00	10.00	10.00
Cashflow From Investing	18.3%	-11.41	-13.97	-22.59	-29.95	-29.06
Cashflow From Financing	3.3%	-199	-206	-204	-131	-125
Dividend Payments	1.3%	72.00	71.00	69.00	67.00	64.00
Buy Backs	-2.8%	126	130	136	58.00	56.00

Risks for MED

What is the probability of a big loss on MED?

88.5%

Probability that Medifast stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

79.2%

Probability that Medifast stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

73.8%

Probability that Medifast stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does MED drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Medifast was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for MED

Cumulative Returns on MED

18%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

23.4%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

5.4%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

17.7%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for MED?

FIve years rolling returns for Medifast.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold MED recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	reduced	-35.3	-3,593,040	7,950,960	0.01%
2023-03-10	BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	added	14.05	2,918	15,918	-%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	reduced	-0.69	5,000	83,000	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	added	5.87	142,965	1,268,960	-%
2023-02-24	SRS Capital Advisors, Inc.	unchanged	-	-117	5,883	-%
2023-02-22	TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY	reduced	-25.78	-105,000	391,000	-%
2023-02-21	MACQUARIE GROUP LTD	sold off	-100	-64,000	-	-%
2023-02-17	TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP	new	-	426,565	426,565	-%
2023-02-16	HARBOUR INVESTMENTS, INC.	reduced	-13.49	-20,854	25,146	-%
2023-02-15	SYSTEMATIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT LP	reduced	-9.32	-238,061	6,607,940	0.22%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying MED calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own MED

No. of Funds

MED Alerts

1 major insider buys and 1 major insider sales recently.
Big fall in Revenue (Y/Y)

Medifast News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Medifast

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 13, 2023	renaissance technologies llc	5.78%	632,110	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	15.35%	1,676,883	SC 13G/A
Jan 26, 2023	blackrock inc.	16.9%	1,847,773	SC 13G/A
Jan 20, 2023	blackrock inc.	16.9%	1,847,773	SC 13G/A
Feb 11, 2022	renaissance technologies llc	6.87%	797,610	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2022	vanguard group inc	12.91%	1,499,306	SC 13G/A
Jan 27, 2022	blackrock inc.	17.2%	1,995,911	SC 13G/A
Jan 26, 2022	blackrock inc.	17.2%	1,995,911	SC 13G/A
Mar 10, 2021	vanguard group inc	10.68%	1,257,265	SC 13G/A
Feb 16, 2021	miller value partners, llc	0.00%	0	SC 13G/A

MED Fair Value

Medifast fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Medifast for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	340.56 226.02%	437.22 318.55%	807.17 672.71%	1370.78 1212.25%	2095.09 1905.64%
Current Inflation	311.48 198.18%	394.23 277.40%	711.16 580.80%	1188.92 1038.16%	1801.86 1624.93%
Very High Inflation	275.46 163.70%	342.00 227.40%	597.51 472.00%	977.29 835.56%	1463.49 1301.01%

Historical Medifast Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Medifast

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 16, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Mar 14, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 22, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 21, 2023	10-K	Annual Report
Feb 21, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Feb 13, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 09, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 09, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 09, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 09, 2023	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for MED

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-10	SCHLACKMAN SCOTT	acquired	60,896	27.68	2,200	-
2023-03-10	SCHLACKMAN SCOTT	sold	-239,096	108	-2,200	-
2023-02-21	Chard Daniel R	sold (taxes)	-209,288	115	-1,815	chairman & ceo
2023-02-07	BROWN JEFFREY J	bought	1,288	114	11.211	-
2023-02-07	SCHLACKMAN SCOTT	bought	1,127	114	9.804	-
2023-02-07	Thomas Andrea B	bought	1,110	114	9.657	-
2023-02-07	Hoer Michael A.	bought	1,095	114	9.525	-
2023-02-07	HALLQUIST CONSTANCE J.	bought	1,143	114	9.95	-
2023-02-03	BROWN JEFFREY J	bought	59,857	116	515	-
2023-02-03	BROWN JEFFREY J	bought	6,461	116	55.65	-

About Medifast

Daniel R. Chard

www.medifast1.com

980

Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes weight loss, weight management, healthy living products, and other consumable health and nutritional products in the United States and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers bars, bites, pretzels, puffs, cereal crunch, drinks, hearty choices, oatmeal, pancakes, pudding, soft serves, shakes, smoothies, soft bakes, and soups under the OPTAVIA, Optimal Health by Take Shape for Life, and Flavors of Home brands. It markets its products through point-of-sale transactions over ecommerce platform. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.

MED Income Statement

2022-12-31

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOME - USD ($) shares in Thousands, $ in Thousands	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
Income Statement [Abstract]
Revenue	$ 1,598,577	$ 1,526,087	$ 934,842
Cost of sales	458,163	398,490	237,027
Gross profit	1,140,414	1,127,597	697,815
Selling, general, and administrative	955,608	911,356	563,656
Income from operations	184,806	216,241	134,159
Other (expense) income
Interest (expense) income	(701)	(231)	246
Other (expense) income	(46)	119	(140)
Total other (expense) income	(747)	(112)	106
Income before provision for income taxes	184,059	216,129	134,265
Provision for income taxes	40,491	52,098	31,406
Net income	$ 143,568	$ 164,031	$ 102,859
Basic earnings per share
Earnings per share - basic (in usd per share)	$ 12.82	$ 14.01	$ 8.74
Diluted earnings per share
Earnings per share - diluted (in usd per share)	$ 12.73	$ 13.89	$ 8.68
Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic (in shares)	11,195	11,705	11,771
Diluted (in shares)	11,276	11,813	11,850
Cash dividends declared per share (in usd per share)	$ 6.56	$ 5.68	$ 4.52

MED Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current Assets
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 87,691	$ 104,183
Inventories	118,856	180,043
Investment securities	0	5,361
Income taxes, prepaid	0	945
Prepaid expenses and other current assets	16,237	16,334
Total current assets	222,784	306,866
Property, plant and equipment - net of accumulated depreciation	57,185	56,131
Right-of-use assets	18,460	24,457
Other assets	12,456	6,468
Deferred tax assets	5,328	4,404
TOTAL ASSETS	316,213	398,326
Current Liabilities
Accounts payable and accrued expenses	134,690	163,309
Income taxes payable	428	0
Current lease obligations	5,776	6,523
Total current liabilities	140,894	169,832
Lease obligations, net of current lease obligations	20,275	26,020
Total liabilities	161,169	195,852
Commitments (Note 12)
Stockholders' Equity
Common stock, par value $.001 per share: 20,000 shares authorized; 10,928 and 11,594 issued and 10,873 and 11,593 outstanding at December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively	11	12
Additional paid-in capital	21,555	12,018
Accumulated other comprehensive income	24	111
Retained earnings	139,852	190,333
Less: treasury stock at cost, 54 and 0 shares at December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively	(6,398)	0
Total stockholders' equity	155,044	202,474
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY	$ 316,213	$ 398,326