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Medifast Inc Stock Research

MED

104.46USD+1.45(+1.41%)Market Closed

Market Summary

USD104.46+1.45
Market Closed
1.41%

MED Alerts

MED Stock Price

MED RSI Chart

MED Valuation

Market Cap

1.1B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

7.91

Price/Sales (Trailing)

0.71

EV/EBITDA

5.37

Price/Free Cashflow

6.38

MED Price/Sales (Trailing)

MED Profitability

Operating Margin

71.34%

EBT Margin

11.51%

Return on Equity

92.6%

Return on Assets

45.4%

Free Cashflow Yield

15.66%

MED Fundamentals

MED Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

1.6B

Revenue Y/Y

-10.74%

Revenue Q/Q

-13.62%

MED Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

143.6M

Earnings Y/Y

-22.06%

Earnings Q/Q

-26.65%

Price Action

52 Week Range

96.00195.49
(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-4.0%

Last 30 days

-6.9%

Last 90 days

-8.5%

Trailing 12 Months

-38.1%

MED Financial Health

Current Ratio

1.58

MED Investor Care

Dividend Yield

6.28%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

6.56

Buy Backs (1Y)

6.21%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

12.73

Peers (Alternatives to Medifast)

View All Peers In Detail
NameMkt Capsorted ascendingRevenuePrice %, 1MReturns, 1YP/EP/SRev 1-YrInc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
338.6B
80.3B
1.26% -3.79%
23.71
4.22
2.47% -1.59%
84.9B
16.4B
-7.24% -8.31%
56.2
5.19
-7.75% -53.65%
60.9B
18.0B
-1.14% -1.59%
34.13
3.39
3.13% -17.59%
42.8B
20.2B
-3.29% 4.87%
22.15
2.12
3.78% 6.62%
19.1B
7.1B
2.26% 22.62%
43.96
2.71
-0.21% 76.11%
MID-CAP
9.4B
5.3B
-3.49% 27.42%
67.46
1.78
4.52% -56.15%
4.5B
1.1B
17.53% 70.15%
37.46
4.17
23.55% 38.36%
4.0B
1.4B
-2.42% 20.66%
34.13
2.83
12.31% 322.50%
4.0B
496.6M
-0.15% 206.44%
84.36
7.96
30.80% 132.00%
2.1B
2.2B
-7.23% 10.56%
21.52
0.98
3.72% -10.14%
SMALL-CAP
1.2B
998.6M
-1.47% -26.87%
17.4
1.21
-15.83% -40.47%
1.1B
1.6B
-6.88% -38.08%
7.91
0.71
4.75% -12.48%
214.9M
-
-40.09% -62.17%
-0.3
0.1
- -56.86%
47.8M
13.6M
-11.34% -41.75%
15.89
3.51
7.56% -27.60%

Financials for Medifast

Income Statement (Last 12 Months)
(In Millions)
* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Revenue-2.5%1,5991,6391,6621,6031,526
Cost Of Revenue0.9%458454453422398
Gross Profit-3.8%1,1401,1851,2091,1811,128
  S&GA Expenses-3.1%9569861,003963911
EBITDA-6.9%195209215226-
EBITDA Margin-4.5%0.12*0.13*0.13*0.14*-
Earnings Before Taxes-7.2%184198206218216
EBT Margin-4.9%0.12*0.12*0.12*0.14*-
Net Income-5.0%144151157165164
Net Income Margin-2.6%0.09*0.09*0.09*0.10*-
Free Cahsflow53.2%17811668.0040.00-
Balance Sheet
(In Millions)
* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Assets-3.1%316326341421398
  Current Assets-3.0%223230243324307
    Cash Equivalents25.8%88.0070.0061.00118104
  Inventory-18.2%119145157189180
  Net PPE-1.6%57.0058.0059.0058.0056.00
Liabilities-8.3%161176211205196
  Current Liabilities-8.7%141154188181170
Shareholder's Equity3.0%155151129216202
  Retained Earnings6.3%140132129203190
  Additional Paid-In Capital15.8%22.0019.00-13.0012.00
Shares Outstanding-0.5%11.0011.0011.0012.0012.00
Cashflow (Last 12 Months)
(In Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Cashflow From Operations43.7%19513596.0073.0095.00
  Share Based Compensation-3.0%11.0011.0011.0010.0010.00
Cashflow From Investing18.3%-11.41-13.97-22.59-29.95-29.06
Cashflow From Financing3.3%-199-206-204-131-125
  Dividend Payments1.3%72.0071.0069.0067.0064.00
  Buy Backs-2.8%12613013658.0056.00

Risks for MED

What is the probability of a big loss on MED?

88.5%


Probability that Medifast stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

79.2%


Probability that Medifast stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

73.8%


Probability that Medifast stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.
*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does MED drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Medifast was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for MED

Cumulative Returns on MED

18%


10-Year Cumulative Returns

23.4%


7-Year Cumulative Returns

5.4%


5-Year Cumulative Returns

17.7%


3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for MED?

FIve years rolling returns for Medifast.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold MED recently?

View All Details
Datesorted ascendingFund NameType% Chg$ Change$ Held% Portfolio
2023-03-10
VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC
reduced
-35.3
-3,593,040
7,950,960
0.01%
2023-03-10
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO
added
14.05
2,918
15,918
-%
2023-03-06
Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.
reduced
-0.69
5,000
83,000
-%
2023-02-28
Voya Investment Management LLC
added
5.87
142,965
1,268,960
-%
2023-02-24
SRS Capital Advisors, Inc.
unchanged
-
-117
5,883
-%
2023-02-22
TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY
reduced
-25.78
-105,000
391,000
-%
2023-02-21
MACQUARIE GROUP LTD
sold off
-100
-64,000
-
-%
2023-02-17
TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP
new
-
426,565
426,565
-%
2023-02-16
HARBOUR INVESTMENTS, INC.
reduced
-13.49
-20,854
25,146
-%
2023-02-15
SYSTEMATIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT LP
reduced
-9.32
-238,061
6,607,940
0.22%

1–10 of 43

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying MED calls or puts?
Calls
Puts
Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?
Net Call Options
No. of funds that own MED
No. of Funds

Medifast News

MarketBeat

Chickasaw Capital Management LLC Has $3.27 Million Position in ....

MarketBeat,
30 hours ago

Seeking Alpha

Investing.com India

PR Newswire

Trumbull Times

Medifast: Q4 Earnings Snapshot.

Trumbull Times,
26 days ago

Penny Stocks

Seeking Alpha

Schedule 13G FIlings of Medifast

Date FiledName of FilerPercent of ClassNo. of SharesForm Type
Feb 13, 2023
renaissance technologies llc
5.78%
632,110
SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023
vanguard group inc
15.35%
1,676,883
SC 13G/A
Jan 26, 2023
blackrock inc.
16.9%
1,847,773
SC 13G/A
Jan 20, 2023
blackrock inc.
16.9%
1,847,773
SC 13G/A
Feb 11, 2022
renaissance technologies llc
6.87%
797,610
SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2022
vanguard group inc
12.91%
1,499,306
SC 13G/A
Jan 27, 2022
blackrock inc.
17.2%
1,995,911
SC 13G/A
Jan 26, 2022
blackrock inc.
17.2%
1,995,911
SC 13G/A
Mar 10, 2021
vanguard group inc
10.68%
1,257,265
SC 13G/A
Feb 16, 2021
miller value partners, llc
0.00%
0
SC 13G/A

MED Fair Value

Medifast fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Medifast for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.
Fair ValueVery PessimisticPessimisticBase CaseOptimisticVery Optimistic
Very Low Inflation

340.56

226.02%

437.22

318.55%

807.17

672.71%

1370.78

1212.25%

2095.09

1905.64%
Current Inflation

311.48

198.18%

394.23

277.40%

711.16

580.80%

1188.92

1038.16%

1801.86

1624.93%
Very High Inflation

275.46

163.70%

342.00

227.40%

597.51

472.00%

977.29

835.56%

1463.49

1301.01%

Historical Medifast Fair Value Estimates


Very Pessimistic Case
Pessimistic Case
Fair Value
Optimistic Case
Very Optimistic Case
Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Medifast

View All Filings
Date Filed Form Type Document
Mar 16, 2023
8-K
Current Report
Mar 14, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 22, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 21, 2023
10-K
Annual Report
Feb 21, 2023
8-K
Current Report
Feb 13, 2023
SC 13G/A
Major Ownership Report
Feb 09, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 09, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 09, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Feb 09, 2023
4
Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for MED

Filter Transactions
Datesorted ascendingNameBuy/Sell$ ValueAvg. Price# SharesTitle
2023-03-10
SCHLACKMAN SCOTT
acquired
60,896
27.68
2,200
-
2023-03-10
SCHLACKMAN SCOTT
sold
-239,096
108
-2,200
-
2023-02-21
Chard Daniel R
sold (taxes)
-209,288
115
-1,815
chairman & ceo
2023-02-07
BROWN JEFFREY J
bought
1,288
114
11.211
-
2023-02-07
SCHLACKMAN SCOTT
bought
1,127
114
9.804
-
2023-02-07
Thomas Andrea B
bought
1,110
114
9.657
-
2023-02-07
Hoer Michael A.
bought
1,095
114
9.525
-
2023-02-07
HALLQUIST CONSTANCE J.
bought
1,143
114
9.95
-
2023-02-03
BROWN JEFFREY J
bought
59,857
116
515
-
2023-02-03
BROWN JEFFREY J
bought
6,461
116
55.65
-

1–10 of 50

Daniel R. Chard
980
Medifast, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes weight loss, weight management, healthy living products, and other consumable health and nutritional products in the United States and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers bars, bites, pretzels, puffs, cereal crunch, drinks, hearty choices, oatmeal, pancakes, pudding, soft serves, shakes, smoothies, soft bakes, and soups under the OPTAVIA, Optimal Health by Take Shape for Life, and Flavors of Home brands. It markets its products through point-of-sale transactions over ecommerce platform. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.

MED Income Statement

2022-12-31
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOME - USD ($)
shares in Thousands, $ in Thousands
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2022
Dec. 31, 2021
Dec. 31, 2020
Income Statement [Abstract]   
Revenue$ 1,598,577$ 1,526,087$ 934,842
Cost of sales458,163398,490237,027
Gross profit1,140,4141,127,597697,815
Selling, general, and administrative955,608911,356563,656
Income from operations184,806216,241134,159
Other (expense) income   
Interest (expense) income(701)(231)246
Other (expense) income(46)119(140)
Total other (expense) income(747)(112)106
Income before provision for income taxes184,059216,129134,265
Provision for income taxes40,49152,09831,406
Net income$ 143,568$ 164,031$ 102,859
Basic earnings per share   
Earnings per share - basic (in usd per share)$ 12.82$ 14.01$ 8.74
Diluted earnings per share   
Earnings per share - diluted (in usd per share)$ 12.73$ 13.89$ 8.68
Weighted average shares outstanding   
Basic (in shares)11,19511,70511,771
Diluted (in shares)11,27611,81311,850
Cash dividends declared per share (in usd per share)$ 6.56$ 5.68$ 4.52

MED Balance Sheet

2022-12-31
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS - USD ($)
$ in Thousands
Dec. 31, 2022
Dec. 31, 2021
Current Assets  
Cash and cash equivalents$ 87,691$ 104,183
Inventories118,856180,043
Investment securities05,361
Income taxes, prepaid0945
Prepaid expenses and other current assets16,23716,334
Total current assets222,784306,866
Property, plant and equipment - net of accumulated depreciation57,18556,131
Right-of-use assets18,46024,457
Other assets12,4566,468
Deferred tax assets5,3284,404
TOTAL ASSETS316,213398,326
Current Liabilities  
Accounts payable and accrued expenses134,690163,309
Income taxes payable4280
Current lease obligations5,7766,523
Total current liabilities140,894169,832
Lease obligations, net of current lease obligations20,27526,020
Total liabilities161,169195,852
Commitments (Note 12)
Stockholders' Equity  
Common stock, par value $.001 per share: 20,000 shares authorized; 10,928 and 11,594 issued and 10,873 and 11,593 outstanding at December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively1112
Additional paid-in capital21,55512,018
Accumulated other comprehensive income24111
Retained earnings139,852190,333
Less: treasury stock at cost, 54 and 0 shares at December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively(6,398)0
Total stockholders' equity155,044202,474
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY$ 316,213$ 398,326