MESA AIR GROUP INC Stock Research

Market Summary

USD3.00+0.21

Delayed

7.51%

MESA Stock Price

MESA RSI Chart

MESA Valuation

Market Cap

109.1M

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

-0.6

Price/Sales (Trailing)

0.21

EV/EBITDA

-4.7

Price/Free Cashflow

8.17

MESA Price/Sales (Trailing)

MESA Profitability

EBT Margin

-44.19%

Return on Equity

-59.28%

Return on Assets

-16.37%

Free Cashflow Yield

12.24%

MESA Fundamentals

MESA Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

531.0M

Revenue Y/Y

-3.94%

Revenue Q/Q

-6.52%

MESA Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

-182.7M

Earnings Y/Y

-1.4K%

Earnings Q/Q

-1.1K%

Price Action

52 Week Range

1.035.36

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

15.8%

Last 30 days

154.2%

Last 90 days

106.9%

Trailing 12 Months

-35.8%

MESA Financial Health

Current Ratio

0.46

Debt/Equity

1.63

Debt/Cashflow

0.03

MESA Investor Care

Shares Dilution (1Y)

1.16%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

-5.06

Peers (Alternatives to MESA AIR GROUP)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
FDX	49.6B	94.1B	10.12%	-20.57%	14.88	0.53	5.07%	-32.20%
DAL	24.5B	46.6B	21.07%	1.02%	298.7	0.53	91.03%	220.59%
LUV	21.5B	22.7B	12.58%	-15.37%	17.28	0.95	77.96%	374.81%
UAL	15.9B	-	30.68%	19.06%	-21.19	0.35	105.23%	76.61%
AAL	10.7B	24.7B	33.36%	4.12%	-6.64	0.45	56.54%	50.37%
MID-CAP
ALK	6.5B	9.1B	23.54%	-3.00%	119.83	0.71	78.29%	315.38%
AAWW	2.9B	4.4B	0.69%	33.94%	7.11	0.65	16.29%	-18.77%
JBLU	2.6B	8.6B	28.76%	-42.58%	-5.01	0.3	76.30%	-20.89%
SAVE	2.4B	4.7B	2.60%	-4.73%	-6.34	0.5	70.14%	31.71%
ATSG	2.1B	2.0B	5.97%	6.50%	10.28	1.03	20.80%	5.98%
SMALL-CAP
ALGT	1.6B	2.2B	35.59%	-49.87%	-39.54	0.71	50.05%	-134.97%
SKYW	1.0B	3.1B	36.25%	-45.94%	8.24	0.33	22.76%	103.49%
HA	612.8M	-	23.27%	-25.82%	-2.17	0.34	92.16%	-31.54%
MESA	109.1M	531.0M	154.24%	-35.76%	-0.6	0.21	5.44%	-1201.27%
AIRT	69.0M	208.4M	-1.06%	6.23%	-37.28	0.33	14.05%	-125.44%

Financials for MESA AIR GROUP

Income Statement (Last 12 Months)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4	2021Q3
Revenue	-1.0%	531,001,000	536,150,000	526,910,000	500,977,000	503,591,000
S&GA Expenses	-2.5%	43,966,000	45,081,000	46,056,000	49,360,000	49,855,000
EBITDA	-697.8%	-117,871,000.00	19,717,000	38,737,000	102,074,000	-
EBITDA Margin	-703.6%	-0.22	0.04	0.07	0.20	-
Earnings Before Taxes	-144.6%	-234,668,000.00	-95,932,000.00	-77,653,000.00	-14,909,000.00	22,416,000
EBT Margin	-147.0%	-0.44	-0.18	-0.15	-0.03	-
Interest Expenses	6.8%	35,289,000	33,032,000	32,943,000	33,578,000	34,730,000
Net Income	-145.1%	-182,678,000.00	-74,537,000.00	-60,276,000.00	-11,804,000.00	16,588,000
Net Income Margin	-147.5%	-0.34	-0.14	-0.11	-0.02	-
Free Cahsflow	-12.3%	13,362,000	15,243,000	64,254,000	58,349,000	-

Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4	2021Q3
Assets	-15.5%	1,116	1,320	1,353	1,434	1,457
Current Assets	3.1%	98	95	120	138	158
Cash Equivalents	5.9%	58	54	76	102	121
Net PPE	-19.3%	865	1,073	1,064	1,158	1,152
Liabilities	-10.0%	807	897	921	960	969
Current Liabilities	-10.7%	214	240	249	250	258
Long Term Debt	-4.0%	503	523	521	547	540
LT Debt, Current	1.0%	113	112	111	112	-
LT Debt, Non Current	0.3%	523	521	547	540	-
Shareholder's Equity	-27.2%	308	423	433	474	488
Retained Earnings	-70.2%	49	165	175	217	232
Accumulated Depreciation	4.0%	471	453	489	470	-
Shares Outstanding	0.2%	36	36	36	36	36

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4	2021Q3
Cashflow From Operations	-12.3%	13	15	64	58	133
Share Based Compensation	-2.0%	3	3	3	3	3
Cashflow From Investing	102.4%	1	-56.82	-51.80	-58.63	-33.47
Cashflow From Financing	8.1%	-77.57	-84.38	-84.43	-78.97	-78.37
Buy Backs	-11.7%	0	1	1	1	1

Risks for MESA

What is the probability of a big loss on MESA?

93.2%

Probability that MESA AIR GROUP stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

92.4%

Probability that MESA AIR GROUP stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

85.6%

Probability that MESA AIR GROUP stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does MESA drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if MESA AIR GROUP was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for MESA

Cumulative Returns on MESA

-29.7%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

Which funds bought or sold MESA recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-01-24	INTERNATIONAL ASSETS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC	sold off	-100	-35,000	-	-%
2022-11-16	BNP PARIBAS ARBITRAGE, SNC	reduced	-10.59	-115,719	238,877	-%
2022-11-16	CAPTRUST FINANCIAL ADVISORS	sold off	-100	-5,000	-	-%
2022-11-15	CONCOURSE FINANCIAL GROUP SECURITIES, INC.	sold off	-	-	-	-%
2022-11-15	STATE STREET CORP	unchanged	-	-67,000	207,000	-%
2022-11-15	JANE STREET GROUP, LLC	sold off	-100	-27,000	-	-%
2022-11-14	MARSHALL WACE, LLP	sold off	-100	-119,000	-	-%
2022-11-14	MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC	reduced	-39.04	-609,000	517,000	-%
2022-11-14	GEODE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC	reduced	-0.54	-183,000	549,000	-%
2022-11-14	TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP	reduced	-33.46	-341,000	342,000	-%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying MESA calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own MESA

No. of Funds

MESA AIR GROUP News

Schedule 13G FIlings of MESA AIR GROUP

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Jan 23, 2023	united airlines holdings, inc.	9998%	4,042,061	SC 13D
Jul 08, 2022	blackrock inc.	2.1%	754,277	SC 13G
Feb 14, 2022	msd partners, l.p.	0.74%	264,723	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2022	corre partners management, llc	0.0%	0	SC 13G/A
Feb 01, 2022	blackrock inc.	6.8%	2,458,343	SC 13G/A
Jan 28, 2022	ubs group ag	0.08%	29,748	SC 13G/A
Mar 19, 2021	integrated core strategies (us) llc	0.0%	1,492	SC 13G
Feb 16, 2021	frontier capital management co llc	0.0%	0	SC 13G/A
Feb 16, 2021	owl creek asset management, l.p.	0.0%	0	SC 13G/A
Feb 12, 2021	msd partners, l.p.	6.2%	2,255,918	SC 13G/A

MESA Fair Value

Recent SEC filings of MESA AIR GROUP

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Jan 23, 2023	SC 13D	13D - Major Acquisition
Jan 20, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Jan 11, 2023	DEF 14A	DEF 14A
Dec 29, 2022	8-K	Current Report
Dec 29, 2022	10-K	Annual Report
Dec 28, 2022	8-K	Current Report
Dec 20, 2022	8-K	Current Report
Dec 13, 2022	NT 10-K	NT 10-K

Latest Insider Trading transactions for MESA

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2022-07-15	GILLMAN BRIAN S	acquired	-	-	2,527	evp/gc/secretary
2022-07-15	GILLMAN BRIAN S	sold (taxes)	-2,131.5	2.03	-1,050	evp/gc/secretary
2022-06-01	ORNSTEIN JONATHAN G	acquired	-	-	136,082	ceo
2022-06-01	ORNSTEIN JONATHAN G	sold (taxes)	-163,975	2.9	-56,543	ceo
2022-06-01	LOTZ MICHAEL	acquired	-	-	107,776	president & chief officer
2022-06-01	LOTZ MICHAEL	sold (taxes)	-129,865	2.9	-44,781	president & chief officer
2022-06-01	GILLMAN BRIAN S	acquired	-	-	31,280	evp/gc/secretary
2022-06-01	GILLMAN BRIAN S	sold (taxes)	-38,143.7	2.9	-13,153	evp/gc/secretary
2022-04-08	RICH BRADFORD R	acquired	-	-	6,996	evp & chief operating officer
2022-04-08	RICH BRADFORD R	sold (taxes)	-7,406.25	3.75	-1,975	evp & chief operating officer

About MESA AIR GROUP

Jonathan G. Ornstein

3240

Mesa Air Group, Inc. operates as the holding company for Mesa Airlines, Inc. that provides regional air carrier services under capacity purchase agreements with the American Airlines and the United Airlines. It also engages in leasing aircrafts to third parties. As of September 30, 2021, the company operated a fleet of 167 aircraft, which include 153 owned aircrafts and 14 leased aircrafts with approximately 507 daily departures to 129 cities in the United States and Mexico. Mesa Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

MESA Income Statement

2022-09-30

Consolidated Statements of Operations and Comprehensive (Loss) Income - USD ($) shares in Thousands, $ in Thousands	12 Months Ended
	Sep. 30, 2022	Sep. 30, 2021	Sep. 30, 2020
Operating revenues:
Contract revenue	$ 531,001	$ 503,591	$ 545,070
Operating expenses:
Flight operations	177,038	162,137	169,242
Maintenance	201,930	217,646	192,123
Aircraft rent	36,989	39,345	48,802
General and administrative	43,966	49,855	52,246
Depreciation and amortization	81,508	82,847	82,296
Lease termination	233	4,508
Asset impairment	171,824
Other operating expenses	7,238	3,536	4,028
Government grant recognition		(119,479)	(83,834)
Total operating expenses	720,726	440,395	464,903
Operating (loss) income	(189,725)	63,196	80,167
Other income (expense), net:
Interest expense	(35,289)	(34,730)	(44,120)
Interest income	139	365	105
Gain on sale aircraft	4,723
Loss on investments, net	(13,715)	(6,816)
Other (expense) income, net	(801)	401	843
Total other expense, net	(44,943)	(40,780)	(43,172)
(Loss) income before taxes	(234,668)	22,416	36,995
Income tax (benefit) provision	(51,990)	5,828	9,531
Net (loss) income and comprehensive (loss) income	$ (182,678)	$ 16,588	$ 27,464
Net (loss) income per share
Basic	$ (5.06)	$ 0.46	$ 0.78
Diluted	$ (5.06)	$ 0.43	$ 0.78
Weighted-average common shares outstanding
Basic	36,133	35,713	35,237
Diluted	36,133	38,843	35,308
Contract Revenue
Operating revenues:
Contract revenue	$ 478,482	$ 434,518	$ 506,590
Pass Through And Other Revenue
Operating revenues:
Contract revenue	$ 52,519	$ 69,073	$ 38,480

MESA Balance Sheet

2022-09-30

Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Sep. 30, 2022	Sep. 30, 2021
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 57,683	$ 120,517
Restricted cash	3,342	3,350
Receivables, net	3,978	3,167
Expendable parts and supplies, net	26,715	24,467
Prepaid expenses and other current assets	6,616	6,885
Total current assets	98,334	158,386
Property and equipment, net	865,254	1,151,891
Intangible assets, net	3,842	6,792
Lease and equipment deposits	6,085	6,808
Operating lease right-of-use assets	43,090	93,100
Deferred heavy maintenance, net	9,707	3,499
Assets held for sale	73,000
Other assets	16,290	36,121
Total assets	1,115,602	1,456,597
Current liabilities:
Current portion of long-term debt and finance leases	97,218	111,710
Current portion of deferred revenue	385	6,298
Current maturities of operating leases	17,233	32,652
Accounts payable	59,386	61,476
Accrued compensation	11,255	12,399
Other accrued expenses	29,000	33,657
Total current liabilities	214,477	258,192
Long-term debt and finance leases, excluding current portion	502,517	539,700
Noncurrent operating lease liabilities	16,732	33,991
Deferred credits	3,082	3,934
Deferred income taxes	17,719	69,940
Deferred revenue, net of current portion	23,682	28,202
Other noncurrent liabilities	29,219	34,591
Total noncurrent liabilities	592,951	710,358
Total liabilities	807,428	968,550
Commitments and contingencies (Note 17)
Stockholders' equity:
Common stock of no par value and additional paid-in capital, 125,000,000 shares authorized; 36,376,897 (2022) and 35,958,759 (2021) shares issued and outstanding, and 4,899,497 (2022) and 4,899,497 (2021) warrants issued and outstanding	259,177	256,372
Retained earnings	48,997	231,675
Total stockholders' equity	308,174	488,047
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity	$ 1,115,602	$ 1,456,597