MOSAIC CO Stock Research

Market Summary

USD43.57-0.40

Market Closed

-0.91%

MOS Stock Price

MOS RSI Chart

MOS Valuation

Market Cap

14.8B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

4.12

Price/Sales (Trailing)

0.77

EV/EBITDA

3.02

Price/Free Cashflow

5.5

MOS Price/Sales (Trailing)

MOS Profitability

EBT Margin

24.27%

Return on Equity

29.72%

Return on Assets

15.32%

Free Cashflow Yield

18.2%

MOS Fundamentals

MOS Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

19.1B

Revenue Y/Y

16.67%

Revenue Q/Q

-16.21%

MOS Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

3.6B

Earnings Y/Y

-21.3%

Earnings Q/Q

-37.84%

Price Action

52 Week Range

40.2979.09

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-2.2%

Last 30 days

-10.8%

Last 90 days

-3.5%

Trailing 12 Months

-35.7%

MOS Financial Health

Current Ratio

1.18

Debt/Equity

0.2

Debt/Cashflow

1.63

MOS Investor Care

Dividend Yield

1.38%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

0.6

Buy Backs (1Y)

8.04%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

10.06

Peers (Alternatives to MOSAIC)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
ECL	44.9B	14.2B	-0.14%	-8.76%	41.17	3.17	11.42%	-3.38%
IFF	21.1B	12.4B	-11.66%	-33.48%	-11.33	1.7	6.73%	-768.10%
MOS	14.8B	19.1B	-10.83%	-35.71%	4.12	0.77	54.77%	119.72%
CF	14.1B	11.2B	-15.84%	-31.36%	3.57	1.26	71.09%	212.46%
MID-CAP
AXTA	5.3B	4.9B	-0.98%	15.10%	26.11	1.1	10.60%	-27.40%
ESI	4.5B	2.5B	-4.62%	-15.96%	24.2	1.78	6.23%	-7.71%
SMG	3.8B	3.9B	-15.14%	-43.17%	-8.51	0.99	-18.08%	-203.17%
FUL	3.5B	3.7B	-4.08%	-1.25%	19.64	0.94	14.37%	11.72%
NEU	3.4B	2.8B	3.65%	10.07%	12.26	1.24	17.35%	46.43%
SMALL-CAP
UAN	934.7M	835.6M	-8.88%	-28.42%	3.26	1.12	56.89%	266.96%
AVD	637.4M	608.4M	8.02%	9.24%	22.46	1.05	12.92%	31.26%
AMRS	480.8M	258.8M	7.25%	-65.26%	-1.41	1.86	-27.46%	18.54%
MBII	145.5M	-	-28.10%	-47.84%	-6.97	3.28	-	-
CGA	54.3M	148.4M	-1.09%	-60.77%	-0.98	0.37	-17.87%	42.15%

Financials for MOSAIC

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	3.5%	19,125	18,485	16,555	13,983	12,357
Gross Profit	-3.0%	5,756	5,936	5,299	4,205	3,200
S&GA Expenses	1.9%	498	489	462	461	431
EBITDA	-3.3%	5,439	5,623	5,057	4,194	-
EBITDA Margin	-6.5%	0.28*	0.30*	0.31*	0.30*	-
Earnings Before Taxes	-4.3%	4,643	4,851	4,345	3,527	2,225
EBT Margin	-7.5%	0.24*	0.26*	0.26*	0.25*	-
Interest Expenses	3.6%	-137	-143	-160	-163	-169
Net Income	-3.8%	3,583	3,724	3,255	2,656	1,631
Net Income Margin	-7.0%	0.19*	0.20*	0.20*	0.19*	-
Free Cahsflow	25.6%	2,689	2,141	1,689	1,084	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	-0.2%	23,386	23,438	23,986	23,423	22,036
Current Assets	-5.0%	6,557	6,900	7,299	6,225	5,325
Cash Equivalents	4.6%	735	703	839	882	770
Inventory	-6.3%	3,543	3,781	3,641	3,327	2,741
Net PPE	1.7%	12,679	12,463	12,569	12,838	12,475
Goodwill	0.9%	1,116	1,106	1,162	1,196	1,172
Current Liabilities	7.9%	5,534	5,130	5,632	5,052	4,787
Long Term Debt	-27.6%	2,412	3,329	3,352	3,378	3,382
Shareholder's Equity	4.1%	12,055	11,581	11,909	11,791	10,604
Retained Earnings	2.5%	14,203	13,858	13,635	13,197	12,014
Additional Paid-In Capital	NaN%	-	-	-	57.00	478
Accumulated Depreciation	0.7%	8,753	8,688	8,580	8,238	-
Shares Outstanding	-0.4%	339	340	352	362	369
Minority Interest	-9.8%	140	155	158	152	144
Float	-	12,100	-	-	-	-

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	15.4%	3,936	3,411	2,944	2,374	2,187
Share Based Compensation	2.6%	28.00	27.00	26.00	31.00	30.00
Cashflow From Investing	3.7%	-1,259	-1,308	-1,304	-1,311	-1,322
Cashflow From Financing	-21.3%	-2,678	-2,209	-2,177	-928	-682
Dividend Payments	15.2%	198	172	151	125	104
Buy Backs	-16.7%	1,665	2,000	1,446	834	411

Risks for MOS

What is the probability of a big loss on MOS?

64.6%

Probability that MOSAIC stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

53.1%

Probability that MOSAIC stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

50%

Probability that MOSAIC stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does MOS drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if MOSAIC was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for MOS

Cumulative Returns on MOS

-1.5%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

8.3%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

13.2%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

69.0%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for MOS?

FIve years rolling returns for MOSAIC.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold MOS recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-15	B. Riley Wealth Advisors, Inc.	added	21.86	155,886	1,628,890	0.05%
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	added	15.39	366,094	8,093,090	0.01%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	reduced	-10.51	-339,000	1,462,000	0.01%
2023-03-02	LORING WOLCOTT & COOLIDGE FIDUCIARY ADVISORS LLP/MA	new	-	131,610	131,610	-%
2023-03-01	Regal Investment Advisors LLC	reduced	-3.19	-28,738	210,262	0.02%
2023-03-01	Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC	new	-	12,888,700	12,888,700	4.58%
2023-03-01	Meixler Investment Management, Ltd.	added	2.53	-31,962	423,038	0.42%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	reduced	-2.7	-786,999	5,950,000	0.01%
2023-02-27	Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P.	added	21.99	921,532	9,505,530	0.01%
2023-02-27	HARVEY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	reduced	-0.16	-568,631	5,504,370	2.31%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying MOS calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own MOS

No. of Funds

MOSAIC News

Schedule 13G FIlings of MOSAIC

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Mar 10, 2023	capital world investors	12.8%	43,064,648	SC 13G/A
Feb 13, 2023	capital world investors	6.7%	22,719,481	SC 13G
Feb 09, 2023	fmr llc	-	0	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	11.69%	39,787,718	SC 13G/A
Feb 03, 2023	blackrock inc.	8.1%	27,677,023	SC 13G/A
Jan 31, 2023	state street corp	5.07%	17,254,537	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2022	vanguard group inc	11.26%	41,707,783	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2022	fmr llc	-	0	SC 13G
Feb 03, 2022	blackrock inc.	7.6%	28,680,742	SC 13G/A
Nov 10, 2021	vale s.a.	0%	0	SC 13D/A

MOS Fair Value

MOSAIC fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for MOSAIC for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	194.14 345.58%	282.16 547.60%	542.74 1145.67%	836.25 1819.33%	1187.54 2625.59%
Current Inflation	177.74 307.94%	254.05 483.08%	478.15 997.43%	726.35 1567.09%	1023.44 2248.96%
Very High Inflation	157.40 261.26%	219.95 404.82%	401.65 821.85%	598.28 1273.15%	833.78 1813.66%

Historical MOSAIC Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of MOSAIC

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 13, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 13, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 13, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 13, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 13, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 13, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 13, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 13, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 13, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 13, 2023	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for MOS

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-05	Bodine Bruce M.	sold (taxes)	-2,886,080	57.14	-50,509	senior vp - north america
2023-03-05	Lewis Christopher Anthony	sold (taxes)	-1,566,260	57.14	-27,411	sr vp - human resources
2023-03-05	O'Rourke James Calvin	sold (taxes)	-14,068,200	57.14	-246,206	president & ceo
2023-03-05	PRATT BENJAMIN JAMES	sold (taxes)	-262,044	57.14	-4,586	sr vp - gov. & public affairs
2023-03-05	Freeland Clint	sold (taxes)	-3,725,640	57.14	-65,202	svp & chief financial officer
2023-03-05	Precourt Walter F. III	sold (taxes)	-2,886,260	57.14	-50,512	senior vp - strategy & growth
2023-03-05	Ricard Corrine D.	acquired	-	-	128,196	sr vp - mosaic fertilizantes
2023-03-05	Ricard Corrine D.	sold (taxes)	-2,882,480	57.14	-50,446	sr vp - mosaic fertilizantes
2023-03-05	PRATT BENJAMIN JAMES	acquired	-	-	11,651	sr vp - gov. & public affairs

About MOSAIC

James C. O'Rourke

www.mosaicco.com

12500

The Mosaic Company, through its subsidiaries, produces and markets concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients in North America and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. It owns and operates mines, which produce concentrated phosphate crop nutrients, such as diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate, and ammoniated phosphate products; and phosphate-based animal feed ingredients primarily under the Biofos and Nexfos brand names, as well as produces a double sulfate of potash magnesia product under K-Mag brand name. The company also produces and sells potash for use in the manufacturing of mixed crop nutrients and animal feed ingredients, and for industrial use; and for use in the de-icing and as a water softener regenerant. In addition, it provides nitrogen-based crop nutrients, animal feed ingredients, and other ancillary services; and purchases and sells phosphates, potash, and nitrogen products. The company sells its products to wholesale distributors, retail chains, farmers, cooperatives, independent retailers, and national accounts. The Mosaic Company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Tampa, Florida.

MOS Income Statement

2022-12-31

Consolidated Statements of Earnings - USD ($) shares in Millions, $ in Millions	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
Net sales	$ 19,125.2	$ 12,357.4	$ 8,681.7
Cost of goods sold	13,369.4	9,157.1	7,616.8
Gross margin	5,755.8	3,200.3	1,064.9
Selling, general and administrative expenses	498.0	430.5	371.5
Restructuring and related cost, incurred costs	0.0	158.1	0.0
Other operating expenses	472.5	143.2	280.5
Operating (loss) earnings	4,785.3	2,468.5	412.9
Interest expense, net	(137.8)	(169.1)	(180.6)
Foreign currency transaction gain (loss)	97.5	(78.5)	(64.3)
Other (expense) income	(102.5)	3.9	12.9
Income (Loss) from Continuing Operations before Equity Method Investments, Income Taxes, Noncontrolling Interest	4,642.5	2,224.8	180.9
Provision for (benefit from) income taxes	1,224.3	597.7	(578.5)
Earnings from consolidated companies	3,418.2	1,627.1	759.4
Equity in net earnings (loss) of nonconsolidated companies	196.0	7.8	(93.8)
Net earnings including noncontrolling interests	3,614.2	1,634.9	665.6
Less: Net earnings (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests	31.4	4.3	(0.5)
Net earnings attributable to Mosaic	$ 3,582.8	$ 1,630.6	$ 666.1
Basic net earnings per share attributable to Mosaic	$ 10.17	$ 4.31	$ 1.76
Basic weighted average number of shares outstanding (in shares)	352.4	378.1	379.0
Diluted net earnings per share attributable to Mosaic	$ 10.06	$ 4.27	$ 1.75
Diluted weighted average number of shares outstanding (in shares)	356.0	381.6	381.3

MOS Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($) $ in Millions	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 735.4	$ 769.5
Receivables, net	1,699.9	1,531.9
Inventories	3,543.1	2,741.4
Other current assets	578.2	282.5
Total current assets	6,556.6	5,325.3
Property, plant and equipment, net	12,678.7	12,475.3
Investments in nonconsolidated companies	885.9	691.8
Goodwill	1,116.3	1,172.2
Deferred Income Tax Assets, Net	752.3	997.1
Other assets	1,396.2	1,374.7
Total assets	23,386.0	22,036.4
Other Short-term Borrowings	224.9	302.8
Current liabilities:
Current maturities of long-term debt	985.3	596.6
Structured accounts payable arrangements	751.2	743.7
Accounts payable	1,292.5	1,260.7
Accrued liabilities	2,279.9	1,883.6
Total current liabilities	5,533.8	4,787.4
Long-term debt, less current maturities	2,411.9	3,382.2
Deferred Income Tax Liabilities, Net	1,010.1	1,016.2
Other noncurrent liabilities	2,236.0	2,102.1
Equity:
Preferred stock, par value	0.0	0.0
Common stock, value	3.4	3.7
Capital in excess of par value	0.0	478.0
Retained earnings	14,203.4	12,014.2
Accumulated other comprehensive loss	(2,152.2)	(1,891.8)
Total Mosaic stockholders’ equity	12,054.6	10,604.1
Non-controlling interests	139.6	144.4
Total equity	12,194.2	10,748.5
Total liabilities and equity	$ 23,386.0	$ 22,036.4