Moderna Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD151.78+2.18

Delayed

1.46%

MRNA Alerts

3 major insider sales recently.
Big fall in Revenue (Y/Y)
Big fall in earnings (Y/Y)

MRNA Stock Price

MRNA RSI Chart

MRNA Valuation

Market Cap

58.4B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

6.99

Price/Sales (Trailing)

3.03

EV/EBITDA

5.55

Price/Free Cashflow

12.76

MRNA Price/Sales (Trailing)

MRNA Profitability

EBT Margin

49.71%

Return on Equity

43.73%

Return on Assets

32.34%

Free Cashflow Yield

7.84%

MRNA Fundamentals

MRNA Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

19.3B

Revenue Y/Y

-29.5%

Revenue Q/Q

51.13%

MRNA Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

8.4B

Earnings Y/Y

-69.91%

Earnings Q/Q

40.46%

Price Action

52 Week Range

115.03217.25

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

5.3%

Last 30 days

-12.8%

Last 90 days

-27.8%

Trailing 12 Months

MRNA Financial Health

Current Ratio

2.73

MRNA Investor Care

Buy Backs (1Y)

4.47%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

20.12

Peers (Alternatives to Moderna)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
AMGN	125.3B	26.3B	-2.75%	3.76%	19.12	4.76	1.32%	11.18%
GILD	99.6B	27.3B	-8.96%	41.01%	21.68	3.65	-0.09%	-26.23%
MRNA	58.4B	19.3B	-12.76%	1.00%	6.99	3.03	4.29%	-31.47%
BIIB	38.3B	10.2B	-9.67%	32.94%	12.57	3.76	-7.36%	95.80%
MID-CAP
NBIX	9.1B	1.5B	-9.09%	3.35%	58.87	6.11	31.34%	72.43%
DNLI	3.2B	108.5M	-21.10%	-19.55%	-9.78	29.38	122.90%	-12.19%
BEAM	2.5B	60.9M	-18.47%	-36.46%	-8.76	41.55	17.51%	22.00%
BBIO	2.1B	107.9M	22.95%	67.45%	-4.29	19.27	54.84%	17.36%
SMALL-CAP
RCUS	1.2B	112.0M	-14.86%	-46.41%	-4.63	11.04	-70.76%	-603.77%
REPL	1.1B	7.0M	-22.18%	24.65%	-7.11	158.97	131.81%	-45.39%
FATE	541.9M	96.3M	-12.99%	-82.24%	-1.92	5.63	72.44%	-32.79%
NVAX	513.7M	2.0B	-39.67%	-92.01%	-0.78	0.26	72.89%	62.27%
SGMO	355.3M	111.3M	-30.55%	-58.78%	-1.85	3.19	0.54%	-7.86%
VXRT	101.4M	159.0K	-16.47%	-82.96%	-0.97	637.62	-86.46%	-64.56%
IBIO	25.1M	-	94.03%	-77.12%	-0.31	3.21	0.51%	-185.61%

Financials for Moderna

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	-9.9%	19,263	21,390	22,995	22,600	18,471
S&GA Expenses	18.2%	1,132	958	848	758	567
R&D Expenses	20.6%	3,295	2,732	2,433	2,144	1,991
EBITDA	-37.7%	9,948	15,968	16,564	13,531	-
EBITDA Margin	-25.6%	0.52*	0.69*	0.73*	0.73*	-
Earnings Before Taxes	-28.2%	9,575	13,330	15,665	16,254	13,285
EBT Margin	-20.2%	0.50*	0.62*	0.68*	0.72*	-
Interest Expenses	78.6%	25.00	14.00	-	-	-
Net Income	-28.9%	8,362	11,765	14,055	14,638	12,202
Net Income Margin	-21.1%	0.43*	0.55*	0.61*	0.65*	-
Free Cahsflow	-26.1%	4,581	6,201	9,215	13,031	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	-0.8%	25,858	26,056	26,043	27,609	24,669
Current Assets	-6.1%	13,431	14,297	13,563	16,350	16,071
Cash Equivalents	5.9%	3,205	3,027	2,873	5,048	6,848
Inventory	-54.3%	949	2,077	1,921	1,942	1,441
Liabilities	-16.5%	6,735	8,064	8,058	10,534	10,524
Current Liabilities	-27.7%	4,923	6,807	6,812	9,238	9,128
Shareholder's Equity	6.3%	19,123	17,992	17,985	17,075	14,145
Retained Earnings	8.7%	18,320	16,855	15,812	13,615	9,958
Additional Paid-In Capital	-21.2%	1,173	1,488	2,413	3,644	4,211
Shares Outstanding	-0.5%	385	387	392	400	403

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	-24.9%	4,981	6,629	9,653	13,412	13,620
Share Based Compensation	12.4%	226	201	171	156	142
Cashflow From Investing	1.7%	-5,176	-5,266	-9,538	-12,264	-8,523
Cashflow From Financing	11.2%	-3,448	-3,883	-2,844	-1,541	-873
Buy Backs	-12.0%	3,329	3,784	2,778	1,480	857

Risks for MRNA

What is the probability of a big loss on MRNA?

99.1%

Probability that Moderna stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

81.4%

Probability that Moderna stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

49.1%

Probability that Moderna stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does MRNA drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Moderna was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for MRNA

Cumulative Returns on MRNA

91.5%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

Which funds bought or sold MRNA recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-15	B. Riley Wealth Advisors, Inc.	added	4.98	674,929	1,810,930	0.05%
2023-03-13	Claro Advisors LLC	reduced	-10.03	44,165	380,165	0.12%
2023-03-10	BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	reduced	-1.09	2,690,230,000	8,044,600,000	8.38%
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	added	60.78	49,677,000	84,122,000	0.09%
2023-03-10	MATHER GROUP, LLC.	reduced	-8.35	334,312	1,185,310	0.02%
2023-03-08	SHEETS SMITH WEALTH MANAGEMENT	new	-	265,658	265,658	0.04%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	added	182	16,322,000	21,280,000	0.11%
2023-03-03	TIAA, FSB	added	55.63	551,758	955,758	-%
2023-03-02	LORING WOLCOTT & COOLIDGE FIDUCIARY ADVISORS LLP/MA	new	-	176,925	176,925	-%
2023-03-02	OLIVER LAGORE VANVALIN INVESTMENT GROUP	reduced	-8.13	5,297	20,297	0.01%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying MRNA calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own MRNA

No. of Funds

Moderna News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Moderna

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	7.10%	27,282,173	SC 13G/A
Feb 01, 2023	blackrock inc.	6.8%	26,115,224	SC 13G/A
Jan 19, 2023	baillie gifford & co	11.66%	44,786,746	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2022	bancel stephane	7.64%	31,538,184	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2022	flagship ventures fund iv general partner llc	2.8%	11,460,435	SC 13G/A
Feb 04, 2022	blackrock inc.	6.8%	27,661,473	SC 13G
Jan 26, 2022	baillie gifford & co	11.29%	45,772,079	SC 13G/A
Jul 12, 2021	blackrock inc.	4.8%	19,390,725	SC 13G/A
Mar 01, 2021	baillie gifford & co	11.18%	44,691,386	SC 13G/A
Feb 16, 2021	flagship ventures fund iv general partner llc	2.9%	11,460,435	SC 13G/A

MRNA Fair Value

Moderna fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Moderna for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	956.74 530.35%	1239.83 716.86%	2702.82 1680.75%	4476.90 2849.60%	7528.63 4860.23%
Current Inflation	878.54 478.82%	1122.30 639.43%	2389.70 1474.45%	3898.91 2468.79%	6493.86 4178.47%
Very High Inflation	781.19 414.69%	978.77 544.86%	2017.09 1228.96%	3222.56 2023.18%	5294.41 3388.21%

Historical Moderna Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Moderna

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 15, 2023	DEF 14A	DEF 14A
Mar 15, 2023	DEFA14A	DEFA14A
Mar 10, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 09, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 02, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 02, 2023	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for MRNA

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-09	Bancel Stephane	acquired	39,600	0.99	40,000	chief executive officer
2023-03-09	Bancel Stephane	sold	-5,567,860	139	-40,000	chief executive officer
2023-03-08	Klinger Shannon Thyme	sold	-79,387	141	-561	chief legal officer
2023-03-08	Bancel Stephane	acquired	39,600	0.99	40,000	chief executive officer
2023-03-08	Bancel Stephane	sold	-5,655,310	141	-40,000	chief executive officer
2023-03-07	Klinger Shannon Thyme	acquired	-	-	1,138	chief legal officer
2023-03-02	Bancel Stephane	acquired	39,600	0.99	40,000	chief executive officer
2023-03-02	Hoge Stephen	sold	-160,583	136	-1,177	president
2023-03-02	Bancel Stephane	sold	-5,500,040	137	-40,000	chief executive officer
2023-03-02	Klinger Shannon Thyme	sold	-62,623	136	-459	chief legal officer

About Moderna

www.modernatx.com

2700

Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, develops therapeutics and vaccines based on messenger RNA for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States and internationally. The company has 44 development programs, which includes 26 in clinical trials across seven modalities comprising prophylactic vaccines, systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics, cancer vaccines, intratumoral immuno-oncology, localized regenerative therapeutics, systemic intracellular therapeutics, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics. The company has strategic alliances with AstraZeneca PLC; Merck & Co., Inc.; Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (Europe) Limited; Carisma Therapeutics, Inc.; Metagenomi, Inc.; the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; Institute for Life Changing Medicines; and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as a collaboration and license agreement with Chiesi Farmaceutici S.P.A. The company was formerly known as Moderna Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Moderna, Inc. in August 2018. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

MRNA Income Statement

2022-12-31

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS - USD ($) shares in Millions, $ in Millions	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
Revenue:
Total revenue	$ 19,263	$ 18,471	$ 803
Operating expenses:
Cost of sales	5,416	2,617	8
Research and development	3,295	1,991	1,370
Selling, general and administrative	1,132	567	188
Total operating expenses	9,843	5,175	1,566
Income (loss) from operations	9,420	13,296	(763)
Interest income	200	18	25
Other expense, net	(45)	(29)	(6)
Income (loss) before income taxes	9,575	13,285	(744)
Provision for income taxes	1,213	1,083	3
Net income (loss)	$ 8,362	$ 12,202	$ (747)
Earnings (loss) per share:
Basic (in usd per share)	$ 21.26	$ 30.31	$ (1.96)
Diluted (in usd per share)	$ 20.12	$ 28.29	$ (1.96)
Weighted average common shares used in calculation of earnings (loss) per share:
Basic (in shares)	394	403	381
Diluted (in shares)	416	431	381
Product sales
Revenue:
Total revenue	$ 18,435	$ 17,675	$ 200
Grant revenue
Revenue:
Total revenue	388	735	529
Collaboration revenue
Revenue:
Total revenue	$ 440	$ 61	$ 74

MRNA Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS - USD ($) $ in Millions	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 3,205	$ 6,848
Investments	6,697	3,879
Accounts receivable	1,385	3,175
Inventory	949	1,441
Prepaid expenses and other current assets	1,195	728
Total current assets	13,431	16,071
Investments, non-current	8,318	6,843
Property, plant and equipment, net	2,018	1,241
Right-of-use assets, operating leases	121	142
Deferred tax assets	982	326
Other non-current assets	988	46
Total assets	25,858	24,669
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable	487	302
Accrued liabilities	2,101	1,472
Deferred revenue	2,038	6,253
Income taxes payable	48	876
Other current liabilities	249	225
Total current liabilities	4,923	9,128
Deferred revenue, non-current	673	615
Operating lease liabilities, non-current	92	106
Financing lease liabilities, non-current	912	599
Other non-current liabilities	135	76
Total liabilities	6,735	10,524
Commitments and contingencies (Note 12)
Stockholders’ equity:
Preferred stock, $0.0001; 162 shares authorized as of December 31, 2022 and 2021; no shares issued or outstanding at December 31, 2022 and 2021	0	0
Common stock, par value $0.0001; 1,600 shares authorized as of December 31, 2022 and 2021; 385 and 403 shares issued and outstanding as of December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively	0	0
Additional paid-in capital	1,173	4,211
Accumulated other comprehensive loss	(370)	(24)
Retained earnings	18,320	9,958
Total stockholders’ equity	19,123	14,145
Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity	$ 25,858	$ 24,669