Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD11.42-0.13

Market Closed

-1.13%

NGVC Stock Price

NGVC RSI Chart

NGVC Valuation

Market Cap

259.5M

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

15.84

Price/Sales (Trailing)

0.24

EV/EBITDA

4.61

Price/Free Cashflow

20.26

NGVC Price/Sales (Trailing)

NGVC Profitability

EBT Margin

2.01%

Return on Equity

10.66%

Return on Assets

2.56%

Free Cashflow Yield

4.93%

NGVC Fundamentals

NGVC Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

1.1B

Revenue Y/Y

4.2%

Revenue Q/Q

0.99%

NGVC Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

16.4M

Earnings Y/Y

-7.44%

Earnings Q/Q

33.51%

Price Action

52 Week Range

8.0018.72

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-1.2%

Last 30 days

5.8%

Last 90 days

5.4%

Trailing 12 Months

-34.8%

NGVC Financial Health

Current Ratio

NGVC Investor Care

Shares Dilution (1Y)

0.26%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

0.71

Peers (Alternatives to Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
WMT	410.6B	611.3B	-3.25%	15.08%	35.16	0.67	6.73%	-14.58%
COST	225.3B	234.4B	0.96%	8.30%	37.24	0.96	13.76%	13.92%
KR	35.3B	148.3B	-5.49%	-12.25%	15.74	0.24	7.52%	34.86%
SYY	35.3B	75.6B	-9.41%	-16.69%	22.82	0.47	14.80%	54.66%
ACI	10.7B	77.6B	-3.83%	-11.63%	7.1	0.14	9.24%	-6.55%
BJ	8.2B	19.3B	-19.47%	4.90%	16.05	0.43	15.89%	20.28%
MID-CAP
USFD	9.4B	34.8B	4.77%	21.14%	26.48	0.27	12.30%	95.58%
CASY	8.6B	15.2B	0.28%	9.66%	18.99	0.56	28.24%	39.99%
SFM	3.7B	6.5B	1.93%	32.22%	14.68	0.56	5.37%	-0.16%
GO	2.8B	3.7B	-4.23%	-25.92%	41.71	0.76	17.53%	22.20%
WMK	1.6B	4.7B	-27.47%	-18.50%	13.45	0.34	9.59%	3.14%
SMALL-CAP
ANDE	1.4B	17.2B	-9.31%	10.26%	10.87	0.08	23.10%	17.42%
CHEF	1.2B	2.8B	-5.92%	-12.35%	44.56	0.44	42.64%	93.05%
SPTN	820.5M	9.6B	-4.61%	-31.78%	23.77	0.09	7.97%	-53.20%
NGVC	259.5M	1.1B	5.84%	-34.80%	15.84	0.24	2.21%	-40.46%

Financials for Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2023Q1	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1
Revenue	1.0%	1,104	1,093	1,090	1,088	1,080
Gross Profit	1.9%	311	305	305	305	303
S&GA Expenses	1.3%	33.00	33.00	32.00	30.00	30.00
EBITDA	-9.7%	52.00	58.00	64.00	66.00	-
EBITDA Margin	-10.0%	0.05*	0.05*	0.06*	0.06*	-
Earnings Before Taxes	-3.3%	21.00	22.00	28.00	34.00	35.00
EBT Margin	-21.3%	0.02*	0.03*	0.03*	0.03*	-
Interest Expenses	11.0%	3.00	3.00	2.00	2.00	2.00
Net Income	-2.8%	16.00	17.00	21.00	26.00	28.00
Net Income Margin	-21.3%	0.02*	0.02*	0.02*	0.03*	-
Free Cahsflow	29.1%	15.00	12.00	26.00	36.00	-

Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2023Q1	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1
Assets	-1.0%	652	659	663	664	655
Current Assets	4.0%	146	140	141	144	145
Cash Equivalents	12.0%	19.00	17.00	12.00	20.00	29.00
Net PPE	-1.0%	158	159	157	149	148
Liabilities	-2.1%	490	500	507	509	501
Current Liabilities	0.9%	141	140	138	131	132
LT Debt, Current	0%	2.00	2.00	2.00	2.00	2.00
LT Debt, Non Current	-16.8%	10.00	12.00	14.00	16.00	18.00
Shareholder's Equity	2.4%	162	158	156	156	154
Retained Earnings	3.6%	103	100	98.00	98.00	96.00
Additional Paid-In Capital	0.4%	59.00	58.00	58.00	58.00	58.00
Shares Outstanding	0.1%	23.00	23.00	23.00	23.00	23.00

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2023Q1	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1
Cashflow From Operations	-3.8%	47.00	49.00	40.00	52.00	64.00
Share Based Compensation	4.8%	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
Cashflow From Investing	1.3%	-36.61	-37.10	-31.14	-28.98	-30.51
Cashflow From Financing	-0.9%	-20.28	-20.10	-20.19	-18.00	-25.73
Dividend Payments	0.0%	9.00	9.00	9.00	8.00	8.00

Risks for NGVC

What is the probability of a big loss on NGVC?

100%

Probability that Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

85.8%

Probability that Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

60%

Probability that Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does NGVC drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for NGVC

Cumulative Returns on NGVC

-6.7%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

0.9%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

6.6%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

-1.4%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for NGVC?

FIve years rolling returns for Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold NGVC recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-05-22	AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC	added	41.06	918,155	2,047,160	-%
2023-05-18	NEW YORK STATE COMMON RETIREMENT FUND	unchanged	-	15,000	69,000	-%
2023-05-18	JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	reduced	-5.87	16,000	92,000	-%
2023-05-16	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	sold off	-100	-1,000	-	-%
2023-05-16	HANCOCK WHITNEY CORP	added	1.00	49,000	212,000	0.01%
2023-05-16	VitalStone Financial, LLC	unchanged	-	-	-	-%
2023-05-15	DEUTSCHE BANK AG\	added	20.6	25,491	71,804	-%
2023-05-15	ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P.	added	5.22	43,199	165,675	-%
2023-05-15	Balyasny Asset Management L.P.	new	-	521,066	521,066	-%
2023-05-15	Royal Bank of Canada	reduced	-1.14	107,000	504,000	-%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying NGVC calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own NGVC

No. of Funds

Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 08, 2022	dimensional fund advisors lp	5.5%	1,240,761	SC 13G/A
Feb 12, 2021	dimensional fund advisors lp	6.7%	1,502,811	SC 13G/A
Feb 12, 2020	dimensional fund advisors lp	6.34%	1,424,051	SC 13G/A

NGVC Fair Value

Show Fair-Value

Recent SEC filings of Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
May 04, 2023	8-K	Current Report
May 04, 2023	10-Q	Quarterly Report
Mar 07, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for NGVC

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-02	Rooney David C.	acquired	-	-	3,422	-
2023-03-02	Halle Richard	acquired	-	-	3,422	-
2023-03-02	Cerkovnik Edward	acquired	-	-	3,422	-
2023-01-03	Dissinger Todd	acquired	-	-	12,014	chief financial officer
2023-01-03	Dissinger Todd	sold (taxes)	-38,040	9.14	-4,162	chief financial officer
2022-11-01	Isely Raquel M.	sold (taxes)	-655	11.5	-57.00	-
2022-11-01	Isely Raquel M.	acquired	-	-	205	-
2022-11-01	Dissinger Todd	sold (taxes)	-5,382	11.5	-468	chief financial officer
2022-11-01	Dissinger Todd	acquired	-	-	1,620	chief financial officer
2022-10-17	Isely Raquel M.	sold (taxes)	-372	10.95	-34.00	-

About Natural Grocers By Vitamin Cottage

Kemper Isely

www.naturalgrocers.com

4190

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. The company's stores offer natural and organic grocery products, such as organic produce; bulk food products; private label products comprising pasta, pasta sauce, ketchup, canned beans and vegetables, frozen vegetables, frozen fruits, frozen meals, frozen pizza, bread, baking mixes, plant based butter, olive and coconut oil, coconut milk, honey, maple syrup, preserves, chocolate, coffee, bacon, beef jerky, canned seafood, popcorn, tortilla chips, taco shells, eggs, cheese, apple sauce, apple cider vinegar, spring water, paper products, cleaning products, and other products; dry, frozen, and canned groceries; meat and seafood products; dairy products, dairy substitutes, and eggs; prepared foods; bread and baked products; beverages; and beer, wine, and hard cider products. Its stores also provide private label dietary supplements; body care products consisting of cosmetics, skin care, hair care, fragrance, and personal care products containing natural and organic ingredients; pet care and food products; books and handouts; and household and general merchandise, including cleaning supplies, paper products, and dish and laundry soaps, as well as other common household products, such as diapers. The company operates its retail stores under the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage trademark. As of February 1, 2022, it operated 162 stores in 20 states. The company also offers science-based nutrition education programs to help customers make informed health and nutrition choices. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado.

NGVC Income Statement

2023-03-31

Consolidated Statements of Income (Unaudited) - USD ($) $ in Thousands	3 Months Ended		6 Months Ended
	Mar. 31, 2023	Mar. 31, 2022	Mar. 31, 2023	Mar. 31, 2022
Net sales	$ 283,245	$ 271,822	$ 563,702	$ 549,110
Cost of goods sold and occupancy costs	200,768	195,040	402,506	393,591
Gross profit	82,477	76,782	161,196	155,519
Store expenses	65,192	59,605	128,788	118,941
Administrative expenses	8,605	8,172	16,858	15,465
Pre-opening expenses	249	141	702	225
Operating income	8,431	8,864	14,848	20,888
Interest expense, net	(834)	(545)	(1,630)	(1,089)
Income before income taxes	7,597	8,319	13,218	19,799
Provision for income taxes	(1,713)	(1,962)	(2,927)	(4,527)
Net income	$ 5,884	$ 6,357	$ 10,291	$ 15,272
Net income per share of common stock:
Basic (in dollars per share)	$ 0.26	$ 0.28	$ 0.45	$ 0.67
Diluted (in dollars per share)	$ 0.26	$ 0.28	$ 0.45	$ 0.67
Weighted average number of shares of common stock outstanding:
Basic (in shares)	22,725,462	22,660,477	22,716,880	22,650,123
Diluted (in shares)	22,824,673	22,819,526	22,809,189	22,790,114

NGVC Balance Sheet

2023-03-31

Consolidated Balance Sheets (Current Period Unaudited) - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Mar. 31, 2023	Sep. 30, 2022
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 18,965	$ 12,039
Accounts receivable, net	6,923	10,496
Merchandise inventory	116,053	113,756
Prepaid expenses and other current assets	3,837	4,369
Total current assets	145,778	140,660
Property and equipment, net	157,707	157,179
Other assets:
Operating lease assets, net	290,611	307,132
Finance lease assets, net	43,191	43,554
Deposits and other assets	422	452
Goodwill and other intangible assets, net	14,337	14,131
Total other assets	348,561	365,269
Total assets	652,046	663,108
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable	75,714	71,283
Accrued expenses	25,006	26,737
Term loan facility, current portion	1,750	1,750
Operating lease obligations, current portion	34,917	34,735
Finance lease obligations, current portion	3,365	3,223
Total current liabilities	140,752	137,728
Long-term liabilities:
Term loan facility, net of current portion	9,938	13,938
Operating lease obligations, net of current portion	278,482	295,064
Finance lease obligations, net of current portion	44,816	44,664
Deferred income tax liabilities, net	16,051	15,902
Total long-term liabilities	349,287	369,568
Total liabilities	490,039	507,296
Stockholders’ equity:
Common stock, $0.001 par value, 50,000,000 shares authorized, and 22,726,979 and 22,690,188 shares issued and outstanding at March 31, 2023 and September 30, 2022, respectively	23	23
Additional paid-in capital	58,519	58,072
Retained earnings	103,465	97,717
Total stockholders’ equity	162,007	155,812
Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity	$ 652,046	$ 663,108