Novavax Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD5.97+0.07

Market Closed

1.19%

NVAX Alerts

1 major insider buys recently.
Big jump in Revenue (Y/Y)
Big jump in Earnings (Y/Y)
Losses in recent quarter

NVAX Stock Price

NVAX RSI Chart

NVAX Valuation

Market Cap

513.7M

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

-0.78

Price/Sales (Trailing)

0.26

EV/EBITDA

1.36

Price/Free Cashflow

-1.02

NVAX Price/Sales (Trailing)

NVAX Profitability

Operating Margin

54.46%

EBT Margin

-32.98%

Return on Equity

103.76%

Return on Assets

-29.13%

Free Cashflow Yield

-98.11%

NVAX Fundamentals

NVAX Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

2.0B

Revenue Y/Y

60.85%

Revenue Q/Q

-51.35%

NVAX Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

-657.9M

Earnings Y/Y

78.46%

Earnings Q/Q

-8.09%

Price Action

52 Week Range

5.6885.60

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-14.4%

Last 30 days

-39.7%

Last 90 days

-47.9%

Trailing 12 Months

-92.0%

NVAX Financial Health

Current Ratio

0.69

NVAX Investor Care

Shares Dilution (1Y)

13.45%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

-8.42

Peers (Alternatives to Novavax)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
AMGN	125.3B	26.3B	-2.75%	3.76%	19.12	4.76	1.32%	11.18%
GILD	99.6B	27.3B	-8.96%	41.01%	21.68	3.65	-0.09%	-26.23%
MRNA	58.4B	19.3B	-12.76%	1.00%	6.99	3.03	4.29%	-31.47%
BIIB	38.3B	10.2B	-9.67%	32.94%	12.57	3.76	-7.36%	95.80%
MID-CAP
NBIX	9.1B	1.5B	-9.09%	3.35%	58.87	6.11	31.34%	72.43%
DNLI	3.2B	108.5M	-21.10%	-19.55%	-9.78	29.38	122.90%	-12.19%
BEAM	2.5B	60.9M	-18.47%	-36.46%	-8.76	41.55	17.51%	22.00%
BBIO	2.1B	107.9M	22.95%	67.45%	-4.29	19.27	54.84%	17.36%
SMALL-CAP
RCUS	1.2B	112.0M	-14.86%	-46.41%	-4.63	11.04	-70.76%	-603.77%
REPL	1.1B	7.0M	-22.18%	24.65%	-7.11	158.97	131.81%	-45.39%
FATE	541.9M	96.3M	-12.99%	-82.24%	-1.92	5.63	72.44%	-32.79%
NVAX	513.7M	2.0B	-39.67%	-92.01%	-0.78	0.26	72.89%	62.27%
SGMO	355.3M	111.3M	-30.55%	-58.78%	-1.85	3.19	0.54%	-7.86%
VXRT	101.4M	159.0K	-16.47%	-82.96%	-0.97	637.62	-86.46%	-64.56%
IBIO	25.1M	-	94.03%	-77.12%	-0.31	3.21	0.51%	-185.61%

Financials for Novavax

Income Statement (Last 12 Months)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	7.3%	1,981,872,000	1,846,673,000	1,290,940,000	1,403,032,000	1,146,290,000
S&GA Expenses	18.8%	488,691,000	411,242,000	366,159,000	331,160,000	298,358,000
R&D Expenses	-36.3%	1,235,278,000	1,940,385,000	2,044,283,000	2,325,320,000	2,534,508,000
Costs and Expenses	-14.5%	2,626,608,000	3,072,501,000	2,696,723,000	2,671,684,000	2,832,866,000
EBITDA	51.7%	-604,713,000	-1,252,892,000	-1,406,213,000	-1,249,250,000	-
EBITDA Margin	55.0%	-0.31	-0.68	-1.09	-0.89	-
Earnings Before Taxes	49.7%	-653,647,000	-1,298,813,000	-1,449,062,000	-1,288,764,000	-1,714,536,000
EBT Margin	53.1%	-0.33	-0.70	-1.12	-0.92	-
Interest Expenses	-2.6%	19,880,000	20,417,000	21,430,000	21,164,000	21,127,000
Net Income	50.2%	-657,939,000	-1,321,974,000	-1,475,792,000	-1,317,624,000	-1,743,751,000
Net Income Margin	53.6%	-0.33	-0.72	-1.14	-0.94	-
Free Cahsflow	30.8%	-503,944,000	-728,573,000	-428,649,000	322,946,000	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	-0.4%	2,259	2,267	2,623	2,835	2,577
Current Assets	-3.2%	1,703	1,760	2,136	2,347	2,155
Cash Equivalents	4.4%	1,337	1,281	1,376	1,571	1,515
Inventory	-55.5%	37.00	82.00	256	107	9.00
Net PPE	15.2%	294	256	255	247	226
Goodwill	7.5%	126	118	123	131	131
Liabilities	2.1%	2,893	2,833	3,040	2,770	2,928
Current Liabilities	47.5%	2,460	1,668	2,156	2,261	2,390
Shareholder's Equity	-1070.7%	-634	65.00	-351	-	-
Retained Earnings	-4.5%	-4,275	-4,093	-3,925	-3,414	-3,617
Additional Paid-In Capital	2.7%	3,738	3,641	3,605	3,566	3,352
Accumulated Depreciation	-	30.00	-	-	-	-
Shares Outstanding	9.6%	86.00	78.00	78.00	78.00	76.00

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	35.1%	-415	-640	-743	-428	323
Share Based Compensation	-3.3%	130	135	148	163	184
Cashflow From Investing	-6.5%	-92.98	-87.28	-69.96	-58.28	100
Cashflow From Financing	346.2%	325	73.00	88.00	45.00	462

Risks for NVAX

What is the probability of a big loss on NVAX?

100%

Probability that Novavax stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

100%

Probability that Novavax stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

95.8%

Probability that Novavax stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does NVAX drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Novavax was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for NVAX

Cumulative Returns on NVAX

-17.8%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

-33.0%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

-32.8%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

-11.1%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for NVAX?

FIve years rolling returns for Novavax.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold NVAX recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-10	BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	unchanged	-	-664	1,336	-%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	unchanged	-	-11,000	13,000	-%
2023-03-02	OLIVER LAGORE VANVALIN INVESTMENT GROUP	unchanged	-	154	154	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	reduced	-1.38	-557,575	701,425	-%
2023-02-24	NATIXIS	sold off	-100	-7,856,000	-	-%
2023-02-21	MACQUARIE GROUP LTD	sold off	-	-16,000	-	-%
2023-02-21	NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO	added	21.56	-2,465	7,535	-%
2023-02-16	HARBOUR INVESTMENTS, INC.	reduced	-41.18	-20,327	2,673	-%
2023-02-16	DZ BANK AG Deutsche Zentral Genossenschafts Bank, Frankfurt am Main	new	-	1,623	1,623	-%
2023-02-15	Bridgefront Capital, LLC	new	-	108,690	108,690	0.08%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying NVAX calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own NVAX

No. of Funds

Novavax News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Novavax

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	10.41%	8,844,653	SC 13G/A
Feb 02, 2023	state street corp	7.15%	6,076,518	SC 13G/A
Feb 01, 2023	blackrock inc.	5.7%	4,808,261	SC 13G/A
Mar 11, 2022	blackrock inc.	5.8%	4,410,761	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2022	ra capital management, l.p.	2.8%	2,097,794	SC 13G/A
Feb 08, 2022	blackrock inc.	5.8%	4,410,761	SC 13G
Feb 16, 2021	d. e. shaw & co, l.p.	0.2%	110,645	SC 13G/A
Feb 16, 2021	ra capital management, l.p.	6.0%	3,788,564	SC 13G
Feb 10, 2021	vanguard group inc	8.79%	5,598,760	SC 13G
Feb 05, 2021	blackrock inc.	8.1%	5,137,631	SC 13G/A

NVAX Fair Value

Novavax fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Novavax for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	- -	2.20 -63.15%	21.52 260.47%	53.46 795.48%	116.83 1856.95%
Current Inflation	- -	1.33 -77.72%	18.33 207.04%	45.97 670.02%	100.50 1583.42%
Very High Inflation	- -	0.27 -95.48%	14.51 143.05%	37.13 521.94%	81.41 1263.65%

Historical Novavax Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Novavax

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 14, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 14, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 14, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 14, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 14, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Mar 09, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 09, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 09, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	3	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for NVAX

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-10	Kelly James Patrick	sold (taxes)	-16,110	6.52	-2,471	evp, cfo and treasurer
2023-03-10	Kelly James Patrick	acquired	30,050	6.52	4,609	evp, cfo and treasurer
2023-03-10	Trizzino John	sold (taxes)	-16,110	6.52	-2,471	evp, cco and cbo
2023-03-10	Herrmann John A III	acquired	30,050	6.52	4,609	evp, chief legal officer
2023-03-10	Glenn Gregory M	sold (taxes)	-15,856	6.52	-2,432	president, r&d
2023-03-10	Glenn Gregory M	bought	6,500	6.5	1,000	president, r&d
2023-03-10	Trizzino John	acquired	30,050	6.52	4,609	evp, cco and cbo
2023-03-10	Glenn Gregory M	acquired	41,063	6.52	6,298	president, r&d
2023-03-10	Herrmann John A III	sold (taxes)	-11,605	6.52	-1,780	evp, chief legal officer
2023-03-07	Glenn Gregory M	bought	14,088	7.044	2,000	president, r&d

About Novavax

NVAX Income Statement

2022-12-31

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS - USD ($) shares in Thousands	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
Revenue:
Revenues	$ 1,981,872,000	$ 1,146,290,000	$ 475,598,000
Expenses:
Cost of sales	902,639,000	0	0
Research and development	1,235,278,000	2,534,508,000	747,027,000
Selling, general, and administrative	488,691,000	298,358,000	145,290,000
Total expenses	2,626,608,000	2,832,866,000	892,317,000
Loss from operations	(644,736,000)	(1,686,576,000)	(416,719,000)
Other income (expense):
Interest expense	(19,880,000)	(21,127,000)	(15,145,000)
Other income (expense)	10,969,000	(6,833,000)	13,605,000
Loss before income tax expense	(653,647,000)	(1,714,536,000)	(418,259,000)
Income tax expense	4,292,000	29,215,000	0
Net loss	$ (657,939,000)	$ (1,743,751,000)	$ (418,259,000)
Net loss per share:
Basic (in usd per share)	$ (8.42)	$ (23.44)	$ (7.27)
Diluted (in usd per share)	$ (8.42)	$ (23.44)	$ (7.27)
Weighted average number of common shares outstanding:
Basic (in shares)	78,183	74,400	57,554
Diluted (in shares)	78,183	74,400	57,554
Product sales
Revenue:
Revenues	$ 1,554,961,000	$ 0	$ 0
Grants
Revenue:
Revenues	382,921,000	948,709,000	453,210,000
Royalties and other
Revenue:
Revenues	$ 43,990,000	$ 197,581,000	$ 22,388,000

NVAX Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS - USD ($)	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 1,336,883,000	$ 1,515,116,000
Restricted cash	10,303,000	11,490,000
Accounts receivable	82,375,000	454,993,000
Inventory	36,683,000	8,872,000
Prepaid expenses and other current assets	237,147,000	164,648,000
Total current assets	1,703,391,000	2,155,119,000
Property and equipment, net	294,247,000	225,741,000
Total non-current ROU assets	106,241,000	40,123,000
Goodwill	126,331,000	131,479,000
Other non-current assets	28,469,000	24,291,000
Total assets	2,258,679,000	2,576,753,000
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable	216,517,000	127,050,000
Accrued expenses	591,158,000	673,731,000
Deferred revenue	370,137,000	1,422,944,000
Current portion of finance lease liabilities	27,196,000	130,533,000
Convertible notes payable	324,881,000	0
Other current liabilities	930,055,000	36,061,000
Total current liabilities	2,459,944,000	2,390,319,000
Deferred revenue	179,414,000	172,528,000
Convertible notes payable	166,466,000	323,458,000
Non-current portion of finance lease liabilities	31,238,000	0
Other non-current liabilities	55,695,000	42,121,000
Total liabilities	2,892,757,000	2,928,426,000
Commitments and contingencies (Note 18)
Preferred stock, $0.01 par value, 2,000,000 shares authorized at December 31, 2022 and 2021; no shares issued and outstanding at December 31, 2022 and 2021	0	0
Stockholders’ equity (deficit):
Common stock, $0.01 par value, 600,000,000 shares authorized at December 31, 2022 and 2021; and 86,806,554 shares issued and 86,039,923 shares outstanding at December 31, 2022 and 76,433,151 shares issued and 75,841,171 shares outstanding at December 31, 2021	868,000	764,000
Additional paid-in capital	3,737,979,000	3,351,967,000
Accumulated deficit	(4,275,889,000)	(3,617,950,000)
Treasury stock, 766,631 shares, cost basis at December 31, 2022 and 591,980 shares, cost basis at December 31, 2021	(90,659,000)	(85,101,000)
Accumulated other comprehensive loss	(6,377,000)	(1,353,000)
Total stockholders’ equity (deficit)	(634,078,000)	(351,673,000)
Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity (deficit)	$ 2,258,679,000	$ 2,576,753,000