Old Republic International Corp Stock Research

Market Summary

USD24.01+0.29

Market Closed

1.22%

ORI Alerts

Big fall in Revenue (Y/Y)

ORI Stock Price

ORI RSI Chart

ORI Valuation

Market Cap

7.1B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

10.29

Price/Sales (Trailing)

0.87

EV/EBITDA

7.57

Price/Free Cashflow

6.04

ORI Price/Sales (Trailing)

ORI Profitability

EBT Margin

10.61%

Return on Equity

11.13%

Return on Assets

2.73%

Free Cashflow Yield

16.57%

ORI Fundamentals

ORI Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

8.1B

Revenue Y/Y

-13.78%

Revenue Q/Q

36.29%

ORI Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

686.6M

Earnings Y/Y

-18.33%

Earnings Q/Q

658.45%

Price Action

52 Week Range

20.2726.72

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-1.2%

Last 30 days

-8.6%

Last 90 days

-1.0%

Trailing 12 Months

-7.5%

ORI Financial Health

ORI Investor Care

Dividend Yield

Dividend/Share (TTM)

1.92

Buy Backs (1Y)

2.74%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

2.29

Peers (Alternatives to Old Republic International)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
PGR	82.1B	49.6B	-1.45%	23.08%	113.76	1.65	4.00%	-78.47%
AFL	39.6B	19.5B	-8.02%	-0.58%	9.42	2.03	-11.78%	-2.87%
TRV	38.3B	36.9B	-11.40%	-9.04%	13.47	1.04	5.94%	-22.39%
AIG	36.1B	56.4B	-21.96%	-24.58%	3.52	0.64	8.41%	9.46%
ALL	27.8B	51.4B	-20.78%	-23.42%	-19.61	0.54	1.63%	-195.35%
RE	24.1B	12.1B	-9.20%	18.91%	40.37	2	1.63%	-56.71%
MID-CAP
UNM	7.6B	12.0B	-9.63%	24.94%	5.75	0.63	-0.19%	59.45%
ORI	7.1B	8.1B	-8.60%	-7.55%	10.29	0.87	-13.47%	-55.25%
AIZ	6.0B	10.2B	-13.09%	-37.50%	21.54	0.58	0.05%	-79.62%
AGO	2.8B	723.0M	-24.58%	-24.83%	22.33	3.83	-14.74%	-68.12%
SMALL-CAP
PLMR	1.3B	327.1M	-8.98%	-16.27%	25.76	4.11	39.88%	13.79%
ARGO	1.0B	1.8B	-0.72%	-28.06%	-5.8	0.58	-8.13%	-2714.93%
AMBC	662.5M	505.0M	-9.19%	72.48%	1.27	1.31	79.08%	3170.59%
MBI	409.0M	154.0M	-39.08%	-42.01%	-2.1	2.66	-18.52%	56.18%

Financials for Old Republic International

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	-4.4%	8,083	8,458	8,750	9,193	9,341
EBITDA	-13.2%	923	1,064	1,289	1,755	-
EBITDA Margin	-9.2%	0.11*	0.13*	0.15*	0.19*	-
Earnings Before Taxes	-14.1%	857	998	1,224	1,674	1,922
EBT Margin	-10.1%	0.11*	0.12*	0.14*	0.18*	-
Interest Expenses	0%	66.00	66.00	66.00	53.00	53.00
Net Income	-14.3%	687	802	982	1,338	1,534
Net Income Margin	-10.4%	0.08*	0.09*	0.11*	0.15*	-
Free Cahsflow	-5.9%	1,171	1,245	1,200	1,294	-

Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	0.9%	25,159	24,947	25,295	25,119	24,982
Cash Equivalents	-20.9%	81.00	102	101	95.00	158
Goodwill	-	175	-	-	-	-
Liabilities	-1.4%	18,993	19,269	18,902	18,369	18,089
Shareholder's Equity	8.6%	6,166	5,678	6,393	6,750	6,893
Retained Earnings	9.1%	5,320	4,875	5,341	5,451	5,214
Additional Paid-In Capital	-12.1%	1,142	1,300	1,396	1,391	1,376
Shares Outstanding	-3.1%	294	304	304	304	303

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	-5.9%	1,171	1,245	1,200	1,294	1,312
Cashflow From Investing	-149.0%	-415	-166	-531	-1,310	-936
Cashflow From Financing	24.9%	-832	-1,108	-675	-12.00	-335
Dividend Payments	-43.7%	580	1,030	723	719	1,019
Buy Backs	Infinity%	281	0.00	0.00	-	-

Risks for ORI

What is the probability of a big loss on ORI?

40.4%

Probability that Old Republic International stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

19.2%

Probability that Old Republic International stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

18.5%

Probability that Old Republic International stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does ORI drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Old Republic International was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for ORI

Cumulative Returns on ORI

13.0%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

11.0%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

9.5%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

28.0%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for ORI?

FIve years rolling returns for Old Republic International.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold ORI recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-15	B. Riley Wealth Advisors, Inc.	added	25.03	163,879	537,879	0.01%
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	added	8.93	68,850,000	336,902,000	0.37%
2023-03-08	SHEETS SMITH WEALTH MANAGEMENT	unchanged	-	33,160	251,160	0.04%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	added	16.01	60,000	238,000	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	added	4.86	6,003,580	34,602,600	0.05%
2023-02-27	ST GERMAIN D J CO INC	new	-	5,072	5,072	-%
2023-02-22	TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY	unchanged	-	141,000	1,062,000	0.01%
2023-02-22	CVA Family Office, LLC	reduced	-4.7	9,015	99,015	0.02%
2023-02-21	Empowered Funds, LLC	new	-	722,930	722,930	0.05%
2023-02-21	Ruedi Wealth Management, Inc.	new	-	2,415	2,415	-%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying ORI calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own ORI

No. of Funds

ORI Alerts

Big fall in Revenue (Y/Y)

Old Republic International News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Old Republic International

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 15, 2023	old republic international corp employees savings & stock ownership trust	6.6%	19,636,060	SC 13G
Feb 09, 2023	state street corp	8.51%	25,905,414	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	9.14%	27,820,739	SC 13G/A
Jan 23, 2023	blackrock inc.	11.2%	34,047,196	SC 13G/A
Apr 08, 2022	blackrock inc.	10.3%	31,752,672	SC 13G/A
Feb 15, 2022	old republic international corp employees savings & stock ownership trust	6.2%	18,991,960	SC 13G
Feb 11, 2022	state street corp	7.31%	22,446,874	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2022	vanguard group inc	9.16%	28,119,286	SC 13G/A
Feb 01, 2022	blackrock inc.	9.9%	30,370,463	SC 13G/A
Feb 12, 2021	old republic international corp employees savings & stock ownership trust	5.9%	18,084,861	SC 13G

ORI Fair Value

Old Republic International fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Old Republic International for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	32.82 36.69%	39.85 65.97%	58.88 145.23%	79.03 229.15%	109.69 356.85%
Current Inflation	30.57 27.32%	36.64 52.60%	52.66 119.33%	69.39 189.00%	95.07 295.96%
Very High Inflation	27.76 15.62%	32.70 36.19%	45.30 88.67%	58.24 142.57%	78.35 226.32%

Historical Old Republic International Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Old Republic International

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 21, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Mar 20, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 20, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 20, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 20, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 20, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 20, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 20, 2023	PRE 14A	PRE 14A
Mar 17, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Feb 24, 2023	10-K	Annual Report

Latest Insider Trading transactions for ORI

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-16	OBERST STEPHEN J	acquired	-	-	35,000	executive vice president
2023-03-16	Smiddy Craig R	acquired	-	-	82,000	president & ceo
2023-03-16	GRAY WILLIAM T	acquired	-	-	25,000	executive vp & treasurer
2023-03-16	Sodaro Frank Joseph	acquired	-	-	25,000	sr. vp. & cfo
2023-03-16	DARE THOMAS	acquired	-	-	25,000	srvp secretary general counsel
2023-03-16	YEAGER RANDE KEITH	acquired	-	-	16,500	executive chairman-title group
2023-01-03	KENNEDY MICHAEL DENARD	bought	7,118	24.13	295	-
2022-12-15	Bateman Steven J	acquired	6,270	24.4	257	-
2022-12-15	KOVALESKI CHARLES J	bought	3,291	23.7	138	-
2022-12-15	REED GLENN W	acquired	3,573	23.7	150	-

About Old Republic International

Craig R. Smiddy

www.oldrepublic.com

9600

Old Republic International Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the insurance underwriting and related services business primarily in the United States and Canada. The company operates through three segments: General Insurance, Title Insurance, and the Republic Financial Indemnity Group Run-off Business. The General Insurance segment offers automobile extended warranty, aviation, commercial automobile, commercial multi-peril, commercial property, general liability, home warranty, inland marine, travel accident, and workers' compensation insurance products; and financial indemnity products for specialty coverages, including errors and omissions, fidelity, guaranteed asset protection, and surety. This segment provides its insurance products to businesses, government, and other institutions in transportation, commercial construction, healthcare, education, retail and wholesale trade, forest products, energy, general manufacturing, and financial services industries. The Title Insurance segment offers lenders' and owners' title insurance policies to real estate purchasers and investors based upon searches of the public records. This segment also provides escrow closing and construction disbursement services; and real estate information products, national default management services, and various other services pertaining to real estate transfers and loan transactions. The Republic Financial Indemnity Group Run-off Business segment offers private mortgage insurance coverage that protects mortgage lenders and investors from default related losses on residential mortgage loans made primarily to homebuyers. The company was founded in 1923 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.

ORI Income Statement

2022-12-31

Consolidated Statements of Income - USD ($) $ in Millions	12 Months Ended
Consolidated Statements of Income - USD ($) $ in Millions	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
Revenues:
Net premiums earned	$ 7,342.1	$ 7,559.8	$ 6,345.8
Title, escrow, and other fees	333.2	443.8	391.9
Total premiums and fees	7,675.3	8,003.6	6,737.8
Net investment income	459.5	434.3	438.9
Other income	149.9	145.6	131.2
Total operating revenues	8,284.9	8,583.5	7,308.0
Net Investment gains (losses):
Consolidated net realized investment gains (losses)	62.2	6.9	14.2
Unrealized from changes in fair value of equity securities	(263.4)	751.1	(156.2)
Total realized and unrealized investment gains (losses)	(201.1)	758.0	(142.0)
Total revenues	8,083.7	9,341.6	7,166.0
Expenses:
Loss and loss adjustment expenses	2,427.7	2,398.2	2,472.5
Dividends to policyholders	12.5	22.7	18.9
Underwriting, acquisition, and other expenses	4,719.2	4,942.3	3,942.4
Interest and other charges	66.7	56.2	43.7
Total expenses	7,226.3	7,419.5	6,477.5
Income before income taxes	857.4	1,922.1	688.4
Income Taxes (Credits):
Current	226.0	221.7	156.9
Deferred	(55.1)	165.9	(27.1)
Total	170.9	387.7	129.7
Net Income	$ 686.4	$ 1,534.3	$ 558.6
Net Income Per Share:
Net income per share: basic (in dollars per share)	$ 2.28	$ 5.08	$ 1.87
Net income per share: diluted (in dollars per share)	$ 2.26	$ 5.05	$ 1.87
Weighted average number of shares outstanding, basic	301,676,941	301,945,319	298,407,921
Weighted Average Number of Shares Outstanding, Diluted	303,296,612	303,667,669	298,898,673

ORI Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($)
$ in Millions

Dec. 31, 2022

Dec. 31, 2021

Available for sale:

Fixed income securities (at fair value) (amortized cost: $12,336.3 and $10,438.6)

$ 11,746.7

$ 10,675.7

Short-term investments (at fair value which approximates cost)

860.8

565.7

Total

12,607.6

11,241.4

Equity securities (at fair value) (cost: $1,948.1 and $3,766.5)

3,220.9

5,302.8

Other investments

31.2

32.0

Total investments

15,859.9

16,576.3

Other Assets:

Cash

81.0

158.1

Accrued investment income

106.7

84.4

Accounts and notes receivable

1,927.5

1,768.7

Federal income tax recoverable: Current

15.7

11.8

Reinsurance balances and funds held

323.0

258.1

Reinsurance recoverable: Paid losses

119.4

118.2

Reinsurance recoverable: Policy and loss reserves

5,468.5

4,825.1

Deferred policy acquisition costs

382.5

350.4

Sundry assets

874.8

830.3

Total Other Assets

9,299.5

8,405.5

Total Assets

25,159.4

24,981.8

Liabilities:

Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves

12,221.5

11,425.5

Unearned premiums

2,787.8

2,559.4

Other policyholders' benefits and funds

191.0

192.6

Total policy liabilities and accruals

15,200.4

14,177.5

Commissions, expenses, fees, and taxes

514.8

573.5

Reinsurance balances and funds

1,079.4

866.0

Deferred Tax Liabilities, Net

40.9

249.5

Debt

1,597.0

1,588.5

Sundry liabilities

560.5

633.3

Total Liabilities

18,993.2

18,088.6

Preferred Stock

^[1]

0.0

Common Shareholders' Equity:

Common stock

^[1]

296.9

307.5

Additional paid-in capital

1,141.8

1,376.1

Retained earnings

5,319.7

5,214.0

Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)

(522.7)

78.0

Unallocated 401(k) plan shares (at cost)

(69.5)

(82.5)

Total Common Shareholders' Equity

6,166.2

6,893.2

Total Liabilities, Preferred Stock and Common Shareholders' Equity

$ 25,159.4

$ 24,981.8

[1]

At December 31, 2022 and 2021, there were 75,000,000 shares of $0.01 par value preferred stock authorized, of which no shares were outstanding. As of the same dates, there were 500,000,000 shares of common stock, $1.00 par value, authorized, of which 296,932,316 and 307,565,632 were issued as of December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. At December 31, 2022 and 2021, there were 100,000,000 shares of Class B Common Stock, $1.00 par value, authorized, of which no shares were issued.