RealReal Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD1.29-0.01

Market Closed

-0.77%

REAL Stock Price

REAL RSI Chart

REAL Valuation

Market Cap

127.8M

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

-0.65

Price/Sales (Trailing)

0.21

EV/EBITDA

1.05

Price/Free Cashflow

-1.12

REAL Price/Sales (Trailing)

REAL Profitability

Operating Margin

57.78%

EBT Margin

-32.52%

Return on Equity

115.49%

Return on Assets

-31.91%

Free Cashflow Yield

-89.51%

REAL Fundamentals

REAL Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

603.5M

Revenue Y/Y

10.01%

Revenue Q/Q

11.88%

REAL Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

-196.4M

Earnings Y/Y

26.03%

Earnings Q/Q

18.3%

Price Action

52 Week Range

1.048.61

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-15.6%

Last 30 days

-19.2%

Last 90 days

-8.5%

Trailing 12 Months

-80.1%

REAL Financial Health

Current Ratio

1.79

REAL Investor Care

Shares Dilution (1Y)

6.59%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

-2.05

Peers (Alternatives to RealReal)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
AMZN	1.0T	514.0B	-3.36%	-34.72%	-376.42	1.99	9.40%	-108.16%
EBAY	22.3B	9.8B	-16.60%	-24.00%	-17.61	2.28	-6.00%	-109.33%
CHWY	16.4B	9.8B	-18.25%	2.53%	-799.92	1.68	14.45%	-288.94%
ETSY	13.1B	2.6B	-22.27%	-16.19%	-18.81	5.09	11.73%	-479.56%
MID-CAP
W	3.4B	12.2B	-38.59%	-71.37%	-2.59	0.28	-10.87%	-916.03%
SMALL-CAP
RVLV	1.8B	1.1B	-6.10%	-43.07%	30.84	1.64	23.56%	-41.21%
OSTK	804.2M	1.9B	-18.63%	-60.96%	-22.82	0.42	-30.01%	-109.05%
SFIX	588.8M	1.8B	13.29%	-47.53%	-1.99	0.32	-16.43%	-882.41%
PETS	385.7M	260.5M	-10.71%	-29.92%	33.83	1.48	-6.68%	-47.81%
LE	266.3M	1.6B	-19.84%	-56.10%	-125.5	0.17	-2.37%	-104.59%
DLTH	226.9M	682.3M	7.04%	-47.83%	18.66	0.33	-0.22%	-64.32%
REAL	127.8M	603.5M	-19.25%	-80.12%	-0.65	0.21	29.04%	16.80%
IMBI	15.6M	453.2M	-31.12%	-90.54%	-0.35	0.03	-5.99%	-122.89%

Financials for RealReal

Income Statement (Last 12 Months)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	2.5%	603,493,000	588,963,000	565,098,000	515,575,000	467,692,000
Gross Profit	4.8%	348,691,000	332,708,000	318,030,000	293,756,000	273,477,000
Operating Expenses	1.5%	537,854,000	530,108,000	521,058,000	510,598,000	488,385,000
S&GA Expenses	2.0%	195,160,000	191,281,000	189,333,000	181,352,000	176,418,000
EBITDA	6.9%	-158,132,000	-169,844,000	-177,581,000	-192,099,000	-
EBITDA Margin	9.1%	-0.26	-0.29	-0.37	-0.41	-
Earnings Before Taxes	6.5%	-196,273,000	-209,961,000	-219,934,000	-237,498,000	-236,051,000
EBT Margin	8.8%	-0.33	-0.36	-0.46	-0.50	-
Interest Expenses	-26.1%	10,472,000	14,171,000	17,568,000	20,899,000	21,531,000
Net Income	6.5%	-196,445,000	-210,030,000	-219,968,000	-237,526,000	-236,107,000
Net Income Margin	8.7%	-0.33	-0.36	-0.46	-0.50	-
Free Cahsflow	16.8%	-114,418,000	-137,594,000	-168,166,000	-180,385,000	-

Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	-3.0%	616	634	648	698	755
Current Assets	-6.8%	372	399	417	464	518
Cash Equivalents	-2.2%	294	300	316	361	418
Inventory	-31.8%	43.00	63.00	74.00	74.00	71.00
Net PPE	13.2%	113	100	93.00	90.00	89.00
Liabilities	1.3%	786	776	756	768	682
Current Liabilities	6.9%	208	194	172	180	188
Shareholder's Equity	-332.6%	-170	73.00	-	-	-
Retained Earnings	-4.2%	-951	-912	-865	-812	-768
Additional Paid-In Capital	1.3%	781	771	758	743	841
Accumulated Depreciation	7.2%	59.00	55.00	51.00	50.00	-
Shares Outstanding	1.2%	99.00	98.00	96.00	94.00	93.00

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	19.7%	-91.56	-114	-141	-143	-142
Share Based Compensation	-6.8%	46.00	49.00	51.00	50.00	49.00
Cashflow From Investing	-2.7%	-36.92	-35.93	-38.19	-47.55	-43.44
Cashflow From Financing	-26.5%	4.00	6.00	4.00	4.00	253

Risks for REAL

What is the probability of a big loss on REAL?

96.9%

Probability that RealReal stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

91.8%

Probability that RealReal stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

91.3%

Probability that RealReal stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does REAL drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if RealReal was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for REAL

Cumulative Returns on REAL

-46.9%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

Which funds bought or sold REAL recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	added	0.01	-14,000	68,000	-%
2023-03-06	OLD MISSION CAPITAL LLC	sold off	-100	-22,000	-	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	unchanged	-	-8,022	39,978	-%
2023-02-21	NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO	sold off	-100	-	-	-%
2023-02-15	JANE STREET GROUP, LLC	reduced	-5.83	-117,194	425,806	-%
2023-02-15	ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P.	unchanged	-	-9,000	46,000	-%
2023-02-15	HOWE & RUSLING INC	sold off	-100	-	-	-%
2023-02-15	MetLife Investment Management, LLC	reduced	-91.52	-65,077	4,923	-%
2023-02-15	Metropolitan Life Insurance Co/NY	added	0.94	-894	7,106	-%
2023-02-15	Point72 Middle East FZE	new	-	41,954	41,954	-%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying REAL calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own REAL

No. of Funds

RealReal News

Schedule 13G FIlings of RealReal

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	5.26%	5,155,010	SC 13G/A
Feb 06, 2023	wellington management group llp	0.00%	0	SC 13G/A
Feb 01, 2023	blackrock inc.	6.5%	6,398,321	SC 13G/A
Jun 10, 2022	fmr llc	-	0	SC 13G/A
Mar 11, 2022	blackrock inc.	6.5%	6,005,789	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2022	greylion partners lp	8.08%	7,469,771	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2022	wainwright julie	4.7%	4,355,122	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2022	fmr llc	-	0	SC 13G/A
Feb 08, 2022	blackrock inc.	6.5%	6,005,789	SC 13G
Feb 04, 2022	wellington management group llp	6.11%	5,646,201	SC 13G

REAL Fair Value

RealReal fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for RealReal for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	- -	0.67 -48.06%	2.30 78.29%	5.25 306.98%	8.36 548.06%
Current Inflation	- -	0.05 -96.12%	1.86 44.19%	4.42 242.64%	7.11 451.16%
Very High Inflation	- -	0.24 -81.40%	1.34 3.88%	3.43 165.89%	5.64 337.21%

Historical RealReal Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of RealReal

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 07, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 07, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 07, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 07, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 07, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 07, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 03, 2023	S-8	Employee Benefits Plan
Feb 28, 2023	10-K	Annual Report
Feb 28, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Feb 21, 2023	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for REAL

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-03	Suko Todd A	acquired	-	-	300,000	chief legal officer and secret
2023-03-03	Koryl John E	acquired	-	-	2,750,000	chief executive officer
2023-03-03	Sahi Levesque Rati	acquired	-	-	500,000	president and coo
2023-03-03	Friang Luke Thomas	acquired	-	-	325,000	chief product & tech officer
2023-03-03	JULIAN ROBERT K.	acquired	-	-	500,000	chief financial officer
2023-03-03	Lo Steve Ming	acquired	-	-	125,000	svp, chief accounting officer
2023-02-20	Suko Todd A	sold (taxes)	-18,266	1.48	-12,342	chief legal officer and secret
2023-02-20	Sahi Levesque Rati	sold (taxes)	-19,271	1.48	-13,021	president
2023-02-20	JULIAN ROBERT K.	sold (taxes)	-1,416	1.48	-957	chief financial officer
2023-02-20	Lo Steve Ming	sold (taxes)	-10,210	1.48	-6,899	svp, chief accounting officer

About RealReal

Julie Wainwright

www.therealreal.com

3360

The RealReal, Inc. operates an online marketplace for consigned luxury goods in the United State. It offers various product categories, including women's, men's, kids', jewelry and watches, and home and art products. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

REAL Income Statement

2022-12-31

Statements of Operations - USD ($) $ in Thousands	12 Months Ended
Statements of Operations - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
Revenue:
Total revenue	$ 603,493	$ 467,692	$ 299,949
Cost of revenue:
Total cost of revenue	254,802	194,215	112,382
Gross profit	348,691	273,477	187,567
Operating expenses:
Marketing	63,128	62,749	54,813
Operations and technology	279,110	235,829	163,808
Selling, general and administrative	195,160	176,418	140,652
Legal settlements	456	13,389	1,110
Total operating expenses	537,854	488,385	360,383
Loss from operations	(189,163)	(214,908)	(172,816)
Interest income	3,191	365	2,518
Interest expense	(10,472)	(21,531)	(5,264)
Other income (expense), net	171	23	(169)
Loss before provision for income taxes	(196,273)	(236,051)	(175,731)
Provision for income taxes	172	56	101
Net loss attributable to common stockholders	$ (196,445)	$ (236,107)	$ (175,832)
Net loss per share attributable to common stockholders, basic (in dollars per share)	$ (2.05)	$ (2.58)	$ (2.01)
Net loss per share attributable to common stockholders, diluted (in dollars per share)	$ (2.05)	$ (2.58)	$ (2.01)
Weighted-average common shares outstanding used to calculate net loss per share attributable to common stockholders, basic (in shares)	95,921,246	91,409,624	87,587,409
Weighted-average common shares outstanding used to calculate net loss per share attributable to common stockholders, diluted (in shares)	95,921,246	91,409,624	87,587,409
Cost of consignment and service revenue
Revenue:
Total revenue	$ 384,979	$ 302,221	$ 213,312
Cost of revenue:
Total cost of revenue	56,963	44,985	30,389
Cost of direct revenue
Revenue:
Total revenue	158,726	120,844	52,623
Cost of revenue:
Total cost of revenue	141,661	101,427	45,406
Shipping services revenue
Revenue:
Total revenue	59,788	44,627	34,014
Cost of revenue:
Total cost of revenue	$ 56,178	$ 47,803	$ 36,587

REAL Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

Balance Sheets - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 293,793	$ 418,171
Accounts receivable	12,207	7,767
Inventory, net	42,967	71,015
Prepaid expenses and other current assets	23,291	20,859
Total current assets	372,258	517,812
Property and equipment, net	112,679	89,286
Operating lease right-of-use assets	127,955	145,311
Other assets	2,749	2,535
Total assets	615,641	754,944
Current liabilities
Accounts payable	11,902	4,503
Accrued consignor payable	81,543	71,042
Operating lease liabilities, current portion	20,776	18,253
Other accrued and current liabilities	93,292	94,188
Total current liabilities	207,513	187,986
Operating lease liabilities, net of current portion	125,118	143,159
Convertible senior notes, net	449,848	348,380
Other noncurrent liabilities	3,254	2,291
Total liabilities	785,733	681,816
Commitments and contingencies (Note 11)
Stockholders’ equity:
Common stock, $0.00001 par value; 500,000,000 shares authorized as of December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021; 99,088,172 and 92,960,066 shares issued and outstanding as of December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively	1	1
Additional paid-in capital	781,060	841,255
Accumulated deficit	(951,153)	(768,128)
Total stockholders’ equity (deficit)	(170,092)	73,128
Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity (deficit)	$ 615,641	$ 754,944