Tractor Supply Co Stock Research

Market Summary

USD230.40-0.04

Market Closed

-0.02%

TSCO Stock Price

TSCO RSI Chart

TSCO Valuation

Market Cap

25.4B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

23.34

Price/Sales (Trailing)

1.79

EV/EBITDA

14.18

Price/Free Cashflow

43.53

TSCO Price/Sales (Trailing)

TSCO Profitability

EBT Margin

9.89%

Return on Equity

53.31%

Return on Assets

12.82%

Free Cashflow Yield

2.3%

TSCO Fundamentals

TSCO Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

14.2B

Revenue Y/Y

20.7%

Revenue Q/Q

22.49%

TSCO Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

1.1B

Earnings Y/Y

22.38%

Earnings Q/Q

15.69%

Price Action

52 Week Range

165.03239.66

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

0.7%

Last 30 days

-1.7%

Last 90 days

1.5%

Trailing 12 Months

0.2%

TSCO Financial Health

Current Ratio

1.33

Debt/Equity

0.26

Debt/Cashflow

1.75

TSCO Investor Care

Dividend Yield

1.6%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

3.68

Buy Backs (1Y)

2.54%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

9.71

Peers (Alternatives to Tractor Supply)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
HD	287.9B	157.4B	-3.58%	-8.46%	16.83	1.83	4.13%	4.09%
LOW	117.3B	96.0B	-6.02%	-11.25%	17.54	1.22	0.77%	-18.59%
TSCO	25.4B	14.2B	-1.70%	0.15%	23.34	1.79	11.57%	9.19%
FND	10.7B	4.3B	4.50%	0.41%	38.26	2.58	24.20%	5.28%
KMX	9.4B	31.6B	-11.32%	-42.66%	16.34	0.3	7.73%	-52.09%
MID-CAP
PAG	9.5B	27.8B	-5.58%	34.25%	6.91	0.34	8.84%	16.18%
AN	6.2B	27.0B	-6.66%	15.71%	4.51	0.23	4.41%	0.32%
LAD	6.0B	28.2B	-14.96%	-33.30%	4.79	0.21	23.46%	18.01%
MUSA	5.8B	23.4B	-5.74%	23.67%	8.65	0.25	35.05%	69.54%
SMALL-CAP
TA	1.3B	10.8B	2.03%	86.36%	7.92	0.12	47.82%	180.33%
CWH	831.3M	7.0B	-14.17%	-33.33%	6.07	0.12	0.77%	-50.82%
CRMT	480.8M	1.3B	-8.64%	-14.25%	7.72	0.36	25.02%	-44.81%
GRWG	203.3M	314.3M	-20.10%	-67.67%	-1.33	0.65	-20.20%	-930.89%
LL	100.7M	1.1B	-31.84%	-77.73%	-8.34	0.09	-3.62%	-128.97%
LMPX	92.2M	-	64.08%	-52.53%	1.2K	0.29	-	-

Financials for Tractor Supply

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	5.1%	14,205	13,518	13,265	12,963	12,731
Gross Profit	5.1%	4,972	4,729	4,649	4,550	4,477
S&GA Expenses	5.2%	3,194	3,037	2,983	2,942	2,900
EBITDA	5.1%	1,778	1,692	1,666	1,608	-
EBITDA Margin	0.0%	0.13*	0.13*	0.13*	0.12*	-
Earnings Before Taxes	4.7%	1,404	1,342	1,333	1,294	1,280
EBT Margin	-0.4%	0.10*	0.10*	0.10*	0.10*	-
Interest Expenses	13.7%	31.00	27.00	27.00	26.00	27.00
Net Income	4.8%	1,089	1,039	1,029	1,003	997
Net Income Margin	-0.3%	0.08*	0.08*	0.08*	0.08*	-
Free Cahsflow	197.8%	584	196	278	381	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	7.3%	8,490	7,912	7,869	7,687	7,767
Current Assets	1.5%	3,158	3,110	3,230	3,168	3,250
Cash Equivalents	-4.1%	203	211	531	405	878
Inventory	1.2%	2,710	2,678	2,485	2,568	2,191
Net PPE	13.0%	2,084	1,843	1,745	1,656	1,618
Liabilities	8.0%	6,448	5,971	5,955	5,897	5,765
Current Liabilities	13.4%	2,376	2,095	2,242	2,200	2,065
Long Term Debt	239.8%	510	150	-	-	-
LT Debt, Non Current	8.0%	1,164	1,078	987	987	986
Shareholder's Equity	5.2%	2,042	1,941	1,914	1,790	2,003
Retained Earnings	3.1%	5,624	5,455	5,323	5,029	4,945
Additional Paid-In Capital	2.0%	1,261	1,236	1,221	1,204	1,211
Shares Outstanding	-0.3%	110	111	111	112	113

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	51.9%	1,357	893	955	1,021	1,139
Share Based Compensation	6.7%	54.00	50.00	49.00	48.00	48.00
Cashflow From Investing	-56.9%	-1,093	-697	-676	-639	-627
Cashflow From Financing	14.4%	-938	-1,096	-1,159	-1,126	-975
Dividend Payments	11.6%	410	367	325	282	239
Buy Backs	-13.5%	700	809	827	842	799

Risks for TSCO

What is the probability of a big loss on TSCO?

61.1%

Probability that Tractor Supply stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

6.9%

Probability that Tractor Supply stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

Probability that Tractor Supply stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does TSCO drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Tractor Supply was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for TSCO

Cumulative Returns on TSCO

17.5%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

15.8%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

31.3%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

42.3%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for TSCO?

FIve years rolling returns for Tractor Supply.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold TSCO recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-28	Acrisure Capital Management, LLC	new	-	298,085	298,085	0.33%
2023-03-27	Neo Ivy Capital Management	sold off	-100	-161,000	-	-%
2023-03-23	MetLife Investment Management, LLC	reduced	-2.57	1,136,230	7,478,450	0.06%
2023-03-23	ETF MANAGERS GROUP, LLC	added	4.06	143,008	692,008	0.03%
2023-03-17	American Portfolios Advisors	reduced	-1.14	-30,165	548,316	0.02%
2023-03-15	B. Riley Wealth Advisors, Inc.	added	32.02	859,817	2,298,820	0.06%
2023-03-10	MATHER GROUP, LLC.	added	4.9	176,104	829,104	0.02%
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	reduced	-28.33	-14,633,500	95,760,500	0.10%
2023-03-10	BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	unchanged	-	5,870	34,870	-%
2023-03-08	SHEETS SMITH WEALTH MANAGEMENT	reduced	-4.14	1,553,300	11,250,300	1.76%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying TSCO calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own TSCO

No. of Funds

Tractor Supply News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Tractor Supply

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	11.76%	12,989,113	SC 13G/A
Jan 25, 2023	blackrock inc.	9.1%	10,031,508	SC 13G/A
May 09, 2022	blackrock inc.	10.2%	11,441,620	SC 13G
Feb 10, 2022	vanguard group inc	11.23%	12,786,869	SC 13G/A
Feb 01, 2022	blackrock inc.	9.7%	11,010,557	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2021	vanguard group inc	10.78%	12,561,933	SC 13G/A
Feb 01, 2021	blackrock inc.	9.4%	11,001,045	SC 13G/A
Feb 12, 2020	vanguard group inc	10.83%	12,830,889	SC 13G/A
Feb 06, 2020	blackrock inc.	8.3%	9,814,657	SC 13G/A

TSCO Fair Value

Tractor Supply fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Tractor Supply for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	97.94 -57.49%	120.32 -47.78%	164.59 -28.56%	226.47 -1.71%	280.16 21.60%
Current Inflation	90.16 -60.87%	109.28 -52.57%	146.13 -36.58%	198.11 -14.01%	242.98 5.46%
Very High Inflation	80.52 -65.05%	95.85 -58.40%	124.35 -46.03%	165.22 -28.29%	200.26 -13.08%

Historical Tractor Supply Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Tractor Supply

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 28, 2023	ARS	ARS
Mar 28, 2023	DEF 14A	DEF 14A
Mar 28, 2023	DEFA14A	DEFA14A
Mar 22, 2023	5	Insider Trading
Feb 23, 2023	10-K	Annual Report
Feb 17, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 17, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 15, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 15, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 14, 2023	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for TSCO

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-02-16	Kersey Melissa	sold	-403,867	237	-1,700	evp chief hr officer
2023-02-15	Ellison Noni L	sold	-555,811	239	-2,325	svp general counsel
2023-02-14	Rubin Matthew L.	acquired	166,232	143	1,161	svp petsense gm
2023-02-14	Rubin Matthew L.	sold	-474,255	237	-2,001	svp petsense gm
2023-02-13	Lawton III Harry A	gifted	-	-	-1,070	president & ceo
2023-02-10	Yankee Colin	sold	-854,574	234	-3,650	evp supply chain
2023-02-09	Mills Robert D	sold (taxes)	-39,202	231	-169	evp chief technology officer
2023-02-09	Barton Kurt D	acquired	-	-	1,669	evp chief financial officer
2023-02-09	Rubin Matthew L.	sold (taxes)	-9,510	231	-41.00	svp petsense gm
2023-02-09	Lawton III Harry A	sold	-4,639,690	231	-20,067	president & ceo

About Tractor Supply

Harry A. Lawton

www.tractorsupply.com

46000

Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company offers a selection of merchandise, including equine, livestock, pet, and small animal products necessary for their health, care, growth, and containment; hardware, truck, towing, and tool products; seasonal products, such as heating products, lawn and garden items, power equipment, gifts, and toys; work/recreational clothing and footwear; and maintenance products for agricultural and rural use. It provides its products under the 4health, Producer's Pride, American Farmworks, Red Shed, Bit & Bridle, Redstone, Blue Mountain, Retriever, C.E. Schmidt, Ridgecut, Countyline, Royal Wing, Dumor, Strive, Groundwork, Traveller, Huskee, Treeline, JobSmart, TSC Tractor Supply Co, Paws & Claws, and Untamed brands. As of December 25, 2021, it operated 2,003 Tractor Supply stores in 49 states, as well as 177 Petsense stores in 23 states. The company operates its retail stores under the Tractor Supply Company, Del's Feed & Farm Supply, and Petsense names. It also operates websites under the TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com names. The company sells its products to recreational farmers, ranchers, and others. The company was founded in 1938 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.

TSCO Income Statement

2022-12-31

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOME - USD ($) shares in Thousands	3 Months Ended	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 26, 2020	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 25, 2021	Dec. 26, 2020
Income Statement [Abstract]
Net Sales	$ 10,620,352,000	$ 14,204,717,000	$ 12,731,105,000
Cost of Merchandise Sold		9,232,513,000	8,253,952,000	$ 6,858,803,000
Gross profit		4,972,204,000	4,477,153,000	3,761,549,000
Selling, general and administrative expenses		3,194,199,000	2,900,297,000	2,478,524,000
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization		343,062,000	270,158,000	217,124,000
Goodwill and Intangible Asset Impairment		0	0	68,973,000
Operating income		1,434,943,000	1,306,698,000	996,928,000
Interest expense, net		30,633,000	26,610,000	28,781,000
Income before income taxes		1,404,310,000	1,280,088,000	968,147,000
Income tax expense		315,598,000	282,974,000	219,189,000
Net income		$ 1,088,712,000	$ 997,114,000	$ 748,958,000
Net income per share – basic		$ 9.78	$ 8.69	$ 6.44
Net income per share – diluted		$ 9.71	$ 8.61	$ 6.38
Weighted average shares outstanding
Basic		111,336	114,794	116,370
Diluted		112,149	115,824	117,436
Dividends declared per common share outstanding		$ 3.68	$ 2.08	$ 1.50

TSCO Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 25, 2021
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 202,502	$ 878,030
Inventories	2,709,597	2,191,192
Prepaid expenses and other current assets	245,676	164,118
Income taxes receivable	0	17,100
Total current assets	3,157,775	3,250,440
Property and equipment, net	2,083,616	1,617,806
Operating Lease, Right-of-Use Asset	2,953,801	2,785,858
Goodwill and other intangible assets	253,262	55,520
Deferred Tax Assets, Deferred Income	0	2,437
Other assets	41,536	55,406
Total assets	8,489,990	7,767,467
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable	1,398,288	1,155,630
Accrued employee compensation	120,302	109,618
Other accrued expenses	498,575	474,412
Current portion of long-term debt	0	0
Finance Lease, Liability, Current	3,179	3,897
Operating Lease, Liability, Current	346,397	321,285
Income taxes payable	9,471	0
Total current liabilities	2,376,212	2,064,842
Long-term debt	1,164,056	986,382
Finance Lease, Liability, Noncurrent	34,651	32,848
Operating Lease, Liability, Noncurrent	2,721,877	2,574,882
Deferred Income Tax Liabilities, Net	30,775	0
Other long-term liabilities	120,003	105,848
Total liabilities	6,447,574	5,764,802
Stockholders' equity:
Preferred stock	0	0
Common stock	1,415	1,411
Additional paid-in capital	1,261,283	1,210,512
Treasury stock	(4,855,909)	(4,155,846)
Ending fiscal year AOCI balance	11,275	1,345
Retained earnings	5,624,352	4,945,243
Total stockholders' equity	2,042,416	2,002,665
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity	$ 8,489,990	$ 7,767,467