Ulta Beauty Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD513.71+3.71

Market Closed

0.73%

ULTA Stock Price

ULTA RSI Chart

ULTA Valuation

Market Cap

26.2B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

22.01

Price/Sales (Trailing)

2.7

EV/EBITDA

14.31

Price/Free Cashflow

27.59

ULTA Price/Sales (Trailing)

ULTA Profitability

Operating Margin

39.74%

EBT Margin

16.13%

Return on Equity

61.96%

Return on Assets

22.34%

Free Cashflow Yield

3.62%

ULTA Fundamentals

ULTA Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

9.7B

Revenue Y/Y

17.19%

Revenue Q/Q

1.81%

ULTA Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

1.2B

Earnings Y/Y

27.54%

Earnings Q/Q

-7.13%

Price Action

52 Week Range

330.80537.52

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

0.0%

Last 30 days

0.8%

Last 90 days

15.2%

Trailing 12 Months

41.1%

ULTA Financial Health

Current Ratio

1.62

ULTA Investor Care

Buy Backs (1Y)

5.80%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

22.72

Peers (Alternatives to Ulta Beauty)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
ULTA	26.2B	9.7B	0.77%	41.14%	22.01	2.7	19.89%	37.22%
BBY	16.6B	47.9B	-13.42%	-22.11%	10.73	0.35	-8.42%	-41.38%
DKS	10.8B	12.1B	12.96%	33.06%	9.4	0.89	0.47%	-17.21%
MID-CAP
WSM	7.9B	8.7B	-9.12%	-18.69%	6.72	0.91	8.52%	13.90%
GME	7.0B	6.0B	-18.99%	-22.80%	-13.69	1.17	1.29%	-231.90%
RH	5.7B	3.9B	-23.73%	-28.25%	10.09	1.57	10.04%	-15.32%
SIG	3.3B	8.0B	-12.15%	-5.59%	8.02	0.42	10.91%	-41.72%
ODP	1.9B	8.5B	-11.54%	3.64%	11.42	0.22	0.30%	179.81%
SMALL-CAP
SBH	1.6B	3.8B	-10.35%	-11.93%	9.78	0.43	-3.24%	-34.37%
WINA	1.0B	80.7M	2.05%	27.85%	25.55	12.94	8.07%	12.12%
SPWH	292.5M	1.4B	-14.54%	-27.64%	3.33	0.2	-2.31%	10.45%
CONN	154.5M	1.4B	-33.77%	-65.50%	-17.31	0.11	-9.34%	-107.10%
BBBY	95.0M	6.2B	-49.51%	-94.95%	-0.07	0.02	-26.37%	-225.93%
PRTY	42.4M	2.2B	-10.90%	-93.38%	-0.16	0.02	1.89%	-208.17%
KIRK	34.8M	512.5M	-20.63%	-74.98%	-1.22	0.07	-11.16%	-192.79%

Financials for Ulta Beauty

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	3.7%	9,711	9,368	9,038	8,631	8,100
Gross Profit	4.7%	3,859	3,686	3,556	3,369	3,112
S&GA Expenses	4.3%	2,283	2,189	2,119	2,062	1,926
EBITDA	4.1%	1,815	1,743	1,691	-	-
EBITDA Margin	0.5%	0.19*	0.19*	0.19*	-	-
Earnings Before Taxes	5.3%	1,567	1,488	1,428	1,296	1,144
EBT Margin	1.6%	0.16*	0.16*	0.16*	-	-
Interest Expenses	0.2%	2.00	2.00	2.00	2.00	8.00
Net Income	5.2%	1,191	1,132	1,087	986	868
Net Income Margin	1.5%	0.12*	0.12*	0.12*	-	-
Free Cahsflow	-1.4%	950	963	947	-	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	7.8%	5,332	4,946	5,012	4,764	5,288
Current Assets	12.4%	2,746	2,443	2,532	2,281	2,834
Cash Equivalents	-42.3%	251	434	654	432	605
Net PPE	6.0%	967	912	910	914	909
Goodwill	0%	11.00	11.00	11.00	11.00	11.00
Liabilities	7.3%	3,409	3,177	3,266	3,229	3,301
Current Liabilities	13.0%	1,698	1,502	1,600	1,558	1,624
Shareholder's Equity	8.7%	1,922	1,769	1,746	1,535	1,987
Retained Earnings	16.2%	983	846	852	653	1,124
Additional Paid-In Capital	1.7%	999	982	952	935	916
Shares Outstanding	-0.6%	51.00	51.00	52.00	52.00	54.00

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	1.6%	1,218	1,199	1,156	1,059	966
Cashflow From Investing	-14.2%	-275	-240	-213	-176	-143
Cashflow From Financing	-0.3%	-1,297	-1,293	-1,234	-1,497	-778
Buy Backs	0.8%	1,332	1,321	1,262	1,522	804

Risks for ULTA

What is the probability of a big loss on ULTA?

63.9%

Probability that Ulta Beauty stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

35.4%

Probability that Ulta Beauty stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

19.6%

Probability that Ulta Beauty stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does ULTA drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Ulta Beauty was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for ULTA

Cumulative Returns on ULTA

21.6%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

15.6%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

18.8%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

36.3%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for ULTA?

FIve years rolling returns for Ulta Beauty.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold ULTA recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-15	B. Riley Wealth Advisors, Inc.	added	39.84	804,010	2,076,010	0.06%
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	reduced	-36.12	-23,117,500	68,222,500	0.07%
2023-03-08	SHEETS SMITH WEALTH MANAGEMENT	unchanged	-	1,250,490	8,644,490	1.35%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	reduced	-14.99	-6,000	1,095,000	0.01%
2023-03-03	TIAA, FSB	added	645	10,102,900	11,412,900	0.04%
2023-03-02	LORING WOLCOTT & COOLIDGE FIDUCIARY ADVISORS LLP/MA	new	-	452,651	452,651	0.01%
2023-03-01	Regal Investment Advisors LLC	added	5.72	66,643	346,643	0.03%
2023-02-28	Trust Investment Advisors	added	13.82	259,964	1,046,960	0.99%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	reduced	-0.26	-124,354,000	16,457,300	0.02%
2023-02-24	NATIXIS	reduced	-54.11	-2,885,630	3,338,370	0.02%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying ULTA calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own ULTA

No. of Funds

Ulta Beauty News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Ulta Beauty

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	11.57%	5,884,717	SC 13G/A
Feb 03, 2023	blackrock inc.	8.0%	4,066,910	SC 13G/A
Feb 07, 2022	blackrock inc.	7.8%	4,234,911	SC 13G/A
Feb 11, 2021	clearbridge investments, llc	5.0%	2,832,118	SC 13G
Feb 10, 2021	vanguard group inc	10.10%	5,691,088	SC 13G/A
Feb 08, 2021	alliancebernstein l.p.	0.9%	524,568	SC 13G/A
Feb 01, 2021	blackrock inc.	6.4%	3,626,266	SC 13G/A
Feb 18, 2020	alliancebernstein l.p.	5.1%	2,909,856	SC 13G/A
Feb 12, 2020	vanguard group inc	10.66%	6,094,966	SC 13G/A
Feb 06, 2020	blackrock inc.	7.0%	4,003,459	SC 13G/A

ULTA Fair Value

Ulta Beauty fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Ulta Beauty for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	307.48 -40.15%	421.25 -18.00%	596.42 16.10%	772.98 50.47%	856.63 66.75%
Current Inflation	282.46 -45.02%	380.76 -25.88%	528.56 2.89%	676.37 31.66%	747.08 45.43%
Very High Inflation	251.50 -51.04%	331.71 -35.43%	448.31 -12.73%	563.87 9.76%	619.98 20.69%

Historical Ulta Beauty Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Ulta Beauty

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 22, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 17, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 17, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 17, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 17, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 17, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 16, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 09, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Feb 09, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 03, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report

Latest Insider Trading transactions for ULTA

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-20	Caro Jodi J	sold	-2,279,940	506	-4,500	gc and corporate secretary
2023-03-20	Caro Jodi J	acquired	1,198,580	348	3,437	gc and corporate secretary
2023-03-15	Kimbell David C	sold (taxes)	-5,014,830	524	-9,567	chief executive officer
2023-03-15	Steelman Kecia	sold (taxes)	-1,210,860	524	-2,310	chief operating officer
2023-03-15	Caro Jodi J	sold (taxes)	-392,611	524	-749	gc and corporate secretary
2023-03-15	Settersten Scott M	sold (taxes)	-924,129	524	-1,763	chief financial officer
2023-03-15	Ryan Anita Jane	sold (taxes)	-130,521	524	-249	chief human resources officer
2023-03-14	Smith Mike C.	sold	-208,650	521	-400	-
2022-12-16	Petz Heidi G	acquired	-	-	163	-
2022-12-13	Kimbell David C	acquired	2,004,260	174	11,489	chief executive officer

About Ulta Beauty

David C. Kimbell

www.ulta.com

40500

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a retailer of beauty products in the United States. The company's stores offer cosmetics, fragrances, skincare and haircare products, bath and body products, and salon styling tools; professional hair products; salon services, including hair, skin, makeup, and brow services; and nail services. It also provides its private label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection branded cosmetics, skincare, and bath products, as well as Ulta Beauty branded products; and the Ulta Beauty branded gifts. As of March 10, 2022, the company operated 1,308 retail stores across 50 states. It also distributes its products through its website ulta.com; and mobile applications. The company was formerly known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. and changed its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Ulta Beauty, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.

ULTA Income Statement

2022-10-29

Consolidated Statements of Income (Unaudited) - USD ($) shares in Thousands, $ in Thousands	3 Months Ended		9 Months Ended
	Oct. 29, 2022	Oct. 30, 2021	Oct. 29, 2022	Oct. 30, 2021
Consolidated Statements of Income (Unaudited)
Net sales	$ 2,338,793	$ 1,995,775	$ 6,981,807	$ 5,901,501
Cost of sales	1,375,976	1,206,301	4,149,800	3,560,276
Gross profit	962,817	789,474	2,832,007	2,341,225
Selling, general and administrative expenses	597,164	503,403	1,632,593	1,411,577
Pre-opening expenses	3,797	1,832	8,422	7,778
Operating income	361,856	284,239	1,190,992	921,870
Interest expense (income), net	(849)	413	(556)	1,196
Income before income taxes	362,705	283,826	1,191,548	920,674
Income tax expense	88,120	68,537	289,891	224,203
Net income	$ 274,585	$ 215,289	$ 901,657	$ 696,471
Net income per common share:
Basic	$ 5.37	$ 3.97	$ 17.45	$ 12.68
Diluted	$ 5.34	$ 3.94	$ 17.35	$ 12.60
Weighted average common shares outstanding:
Basic	51,131	54,291	51,663	54,921
Diluted	51,418	54,660	51,962	55,280

ULTA Balance Sheet

2022-10-29

Consolidated Balance Sheets (Unaudited) - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Oct. 29, 2022	Jan. 29, 2022	Oct. 30, 2021
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 250,628	$ 431,560	$ 605,053
Receivables, net	200,304	233,682	169,212
Merchandise inventories, net	2,114,669	1,499,218	1,916,343
Prepaid expenses and other current assets	137,642	110,814	105,584
Prepaid income taxes	42,572	5,909	37,501
Total current assets	2,745,815	2,281,183	2,833,693
Property and equipment, net	967,039	914,476	908,665
Operating lease assets	1,556,940	1,482,256	1,464,533
Goodwill	10,870	10,870	10,870
Other intangible assets, net	844	1,538	1,770
Deferred compensation plan assets	31,529	38,409	36,403
Other long-term assets	18,512	35,647	31,833
Total assets	5,331,549	4,764,379	5,287,767
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable	647,117	552,730	747,451
Accrued liabilities	462,773	364,797	329,672
Deferred revenue	312,132	353,579	272,628
Current operating lease liabilities	275,749	274,118	274,365
Accrued income taxes		12,786
Total current liabilities	1,697,771	1,558,010	1,624,116
Non-current operating lease liabilities	1,621,252	1,572,638	1,565,921
Deferred income taxes	38,627	39,693	67,267
Other long-term liabilities	51,644	58,665	43,663
Total liabilities	3,409,294	3,229,006	3,300,967
Commitments and contingencies (Note 6)
Stockholders' equity:
Common stock, $0.01 par value, 400,000 shares authorized; 51,785, 53,049, and 54,907 shares issued; 51,029, 52,311, and 54,170 shares outstanding; at October 29, 2022 (unaudited), January 29, 2022, and October 30, 2021 (unaudited), respectively	517	530	549
Treasury stock-common, at cost	(60,218)	(53,478)	(53,312)
Additional paid-in capital	998,816	934,945	915,814
Retained earnings	983,140	653,376	1,123,749
Total stockholders' equity	1,922,255	1,535,373	1,986,800
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity	$ 5,331,549	$ 4,764,379	$ 5,287,767