American Airlines Group Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD14.12+0.26

Market Closed

1.88%

AAL Alerts

Big jump in Revenue (Y/Y)
Big jump in Earnings (Y/Y)

AAL Stock Price

AAL RSI Chart

AAL Valuation

Market Cap

9.2B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

72.34

Price/Sales (Trailing)

0.19

EV/EBITDA

9.94

Price/Free Cashflow

4.23

AAL Price/Sales (Trailing)

AAL Profitability

EBT Margin

0.38%

Return on Assets

0.2%

Free Cashflow Yield

23.65%

AAL Fundamentals

AAL Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

49.0B

Revenue Y/Y

39.9%

Revenue Q/Q

-2.04%

AAL Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

127.0M

Earnings Y/Y

186.16%

Earnings Q/Q

66.25%

Price Action

52 Week Range

11.6521.42

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-16.5%

Last 30 days

-16.0%

Last 90 days

7.2%

Trailing 12 Months

-11.0%

AAL Financial Health

Current Ratio

0.71

Debt/Cashflow

0.07

AAL Investor Care

Shares Dilution (1Y)

0.45%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

0.19

Peers (Alternatives to American Airlines Group)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
FDX	53.1B	94.1B	-7.73%	-9.22%	15.93	0.56	5.07%	-32.20%
DAL	24.5B	50.6B	-13.91%	-4.68%	298.7	0.53	69.18%	370.71%
LUV	18.1B	23.8B	-15.23%	-29.32%	18.91	0.76	50.82%	-2.15%
UAL	14.3B	45.0B	-12.30%	12.81%	19.34	0.32	82.49%	137.53%
AAL	9.2B	49.0B	-16.05%	-10.98%	72.34	0.19	63.88%	106.37%
MID-CAP
ALK	5.2B	9.6B	-19.50%	-21.96%	89.01	0.54	56.19%	-87.87%
AAWW	2.9B	4.5B	0.24%	21.66%	8.22	0.64	12.86%	-27.86%
JBLU	2.3B	9.2B	-18.97%	-49.38%	-6.41	0.25	51.67%	-98.90%
SMALL-CAP
SAVE	1.9B	5.1B	-12.90%	-19.64%	-3.36	0.37	56.88%	-17.26%
ALGT	1.6B	2.3B	-7.92%	-42.53%	624.1	0.68	34.77%	-98.36%
ATSG	1.5B	2.0B	-17.79%	-34.57%	7.55	0.73	17.94%	-14.19%
SKYW	933.4M	3.0B	-5.79%	-29.21%	12.8	0.31	10.74%	-34.81%
HA	431.7M	2.6B	-21.20%	-51.47%	-1.8	0.16	65.43%	-65.83%
MESA	96.0M	530.4M	-27.99%	-40.19%	-0.54	0.18	5.88%	-1403.68%
AIRT	59.3M	224.4M	-8.70%	0.43%	-23.56	0.26	30.18%	-139.59%

Financials for American Airlines Group

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	8.3%	48,971	45,210	40,717	34,773	29,882
S&GA Expenses	7.8%	1,815	1,684	1,507	1,280	1,098
Costs and Expenses	3.5%	47,364	45,766	41,608	36,240	30,941
EBITDA	111.6%	4,125	1,949	1,463	864	-
EBITDA Margin	95.4%	0.08*	0.04*	0.06*	0.02*	-
Earnings Before Taxes	109.2%	186	-2,016	-2,468	-3,062	-2,548
EBT Margin	108.5%	0.00*	-0.04*	-0.10*	-0.09*	-
Interest Expenses	3.4%	1,962	1,898	1,875	1,893	1,800
Net Income	107.9%	127	-1,608	-1,922	-2,379	-1,993
Net Income Margin	107.3%	0.00*	-0.04*	-0.08*	-0.07*	-
Free Cahsflow	92.1%	2,173	1,131	-16.00	1,715	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	-2.9%	64,716	66,652	67,963	67,401	66,467
Current Assets	-12.1%	15,269	17,377	18,525	17,762	17,336
Cash Equivalents	23.1%	586	476	537	512	408
Goodwill	0%	4,091	4,091	4,091	4,091	4,100
Current Liabilities	-2.2%	21,496	21,970	22,770	21,866	19,006
Long Term Debt	-5.3%	32,389	34,185	34,963	35,461	35,571
Retained Earnings	8.6%	-8,511	-9,314	-9,797	-10,273	-8,638
Additional Paid-In Capital	0.2%	7,291	7,277	7,259	7,243	7,234
Shares Outstanding	0.1%	651	650	650	649	648

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	92.1%	2,173	1,131	-16.00	1,715	704
Share Based Compensation	-20.4%	78.00	98.00	-	-	-
Cashflow From Investing	-22.6%	636	822	3,353	398	-5,983
Cashflow From Financing	-37.9%	-2,631	-1,908	-3,265	-2,035	5,288
Buy Backs	16.7%	21.00	18.00	-	-	-

Risks for AAL

What is the probability of a big loss on AAL?

98.5%

Probability that American Airlines Group stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

80.8%

Probability that American Airlines Group stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

56.9%

Probability that American Airlines Group stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does AAL drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if American Airlines Group was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for AAL

Cumulative Returns on AAL

-0.8%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

-14.2%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

-23.8%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

-1.1%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for AAL?

FIve years rolling returns for American Airlines Group.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold AAL recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-15	B. Riley Wealth Advisors, Inc.	reduced	-2.73	5,894	251,894	0.01%
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	reduced	-0.64	20,579	434,579	-%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	reduced	-14.13	-84,000	816,000	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	added	2.86	232,160	2,913,160	-%
2023-02-27	Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P.	reduced	-50.00	-852,000	954,000	-%
2023-02-24	SRS Capital Advisors, Inc.	new	-	3,104	3,104	-%
2023-02-24	NATIXIS	reduced	-98.84	-22,109,800	271,190	-%
2023-02-23	Portman Square Capital LLP	new	-	4,367,310	4,367,310	0.32%
2023-02-22	TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY	unchanged	-	40,000	758,000	0.01%
2023-02-22	BARNES PETTEY FINANCIAL ADVISORS, LLC	added	5.31	71,654	710,654	0.73%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying AAL calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own AAL

No. of Funds

American Airlines Group News

Schedule 13G FIlings of American Airlines Group

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 09, 2023	primecap management co/ca/	5.86%	38,098,701	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	blackrock inc.	5.5%	35,622,648	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	11.23%	72,960,262	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2022	susquehanna securities, llc	3.5%	23,029,096	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2022	primecap management co/ca/	6.32%	40,897,051	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2022	vanguard group inc	10.52%	68,146,577	SC 13G/A
Feb 01, 2022	blackrock inc.	5.5%	35,697,328	SC 13G/A
Apr 12, 2021	vanguard group inc	10.29%	65,972,326	SC 13G/A
Feb 16, 2021	susquehanna securities, llc	5.1%	31,844,311	SC 13G
Feb 12, 2021	primecap management co/ca/	7.88%	47,666,106	SC 13G/A

AAL Fair Value

American Airlines Group fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for American Airlines Group for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	26.51 87.75%	32.26 128.47%	55.43 292.56%	67.21 375.99%	76.57 442.28%
Current Inflation	25.15 78.12%	30.46 115.72%	50.06 254.53%	60.08 325.50%	68.02 381.73%
Very High Inflation	23.39 65.65%	28.14 99.29%	43.58 208.64%	51.60 265.44%	57.93 310.27%

Historical American Airlines Group Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of American Airlines Group

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 15, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 14, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 14, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 14, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 13, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Feb 27, 2023	424B7	Prospectus Filed
Feb 27, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 27, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 27, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 27, 2023	8-K	Current Report

Latest Insider Trading transactions for AAL

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-13	Raja Vasu	sold	-150,007	15.07	-9,954	evp chief commercial officer
2023-03-11	Johnson Stephen L	sold (taxes)	-194,054	15.46	-12,552	evp
2023-03-11	PARKER W DOUGLAS	sold (taxes)	-711,670	15.46	-46,033	-
2023-03-11	Isom Robert D Jr	sold (taxes)	-365,273	15.46	-23,627	ceo and president
2023-02-24	Isom Robert D Jr	sold (taxes)	-527,531	15.56	-33,903	ceo and president
2023-02-24	Johnson Stephen L	sold (taxes)	-365,940	15.56	-23,518	evp
2023-02-24	PARKER W DOUGLAS	sold (taxes)	-407,345	15.56	-26,179	-
2023-02-18	May Devon E	sold (taxes)	-57,849	16.36	-3,536	evp chief financial officer
2023-02-18	Raja Vasu	sold (taxes)	-57,914	16.36	-3,540	evp chief commercial officer
2023-02-18	Seymour David	sold (taxes)	-111,199	16.36	-6,797	evp chief operating officer

About American Airlines Group

Robert D. Isom

www.aa.com

65535

American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier. The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., as well as through partner gateways in London, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a mainline fleet of 865 aircraft. The company was formerly known as AMR Corporation and changed its name to American Airlines Group Inc. in December 2013. American Airlines Group Inc. was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.

AAL Income Statement

2022-12-31

Consolidated Statements of Operations - American Airlines Group Inc. - USD ($) shares in Thousands, $ in Millions	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
Operating revenues:
Total operating revenues	$ 48,971	$ 29,882	$ 17,337
Operating expenses:
Aircraft fuel and related taxes	13,791	6,792	3,402
Salaries, wages and benefits	12,972	11,817	11,229
Regional expenses	4,385	3,204	2,962
Maintenance, materials and repairs	2,684	1,979	1,585
Other rent and landing fees	2,730	2,619	2,004
Aircraft rent	1,395	1,425	1,341
Selling expenses	1,815	1,098	666
Depreciation and amortization	1,977	2,019	2,040
Special items, net	193	(4,006)	(657)
Other	5,422	3,994	3,186
Total operating expenses	47,364	30,941	27,758
Operating income (loss)	1,607	(1,059)	(10,421)
Nonoperating income (expense):
Interest income	216	18	41
Interest expense, net	(1,962)	(1,800)	(1,227)
Other income, net	325	293	154
Total nonoperating expense, net	(1,421)	(1,489)	(1,032)
Income (loss) before income taxes	186	(2,548)	(11,453)
Income tax provision (benefit)	59	(555)	(2,568)
Net income (loss)	$ 127	$ (1,993)	$ (8,885)
Earnings (loss) per common share:
Basic (in dollars per share)	$ 0.20	$ (3.09)	$ (18.36)
Diluted (in dollars per share)	$ 0.19	$ (3.09)	$ (18.36)
Weighted average shares outstanding (in thousands):
Basic (in shares)	650,345	644,015	483,888
Diluted (in shares)	655,122	644,015	483,888
Passenger
Operating revenues:
Total operating revenues	$ 44,568	$ 26,063	$ 14,518
Cargo
Operating revenues:
Total operating revenues	1,233	1,314	769
Other
Operating revenues:
Total operating revenues	$ 3,170	$ 2,505	$ 2,050

AAL Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

Consolidated Balance Sheets - American Airlines Group Inc. - USD ($) $ in Millions	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020	Dec. 31, 2019
Current assets
Cash	$ 440	$ 273	$ 245
Short-term investments	8,525	12,158
Restricted cash and short-term investments	995	990
Accounts receivable, net	2,138	1,505
Aircraft fuel, spare parts and supplies, net	2,279	1,795
Prepaid expenses and other	892	615
Total current assets	15,269	17,336
Operating property and equipment
Flight equipment	39,703	37,856
Ground property and equipment	9,913	9,335
Equipment purchase deposits	613	517
Total property and equipment, at cost	50,229	47,708
Less accumulated depreciation and amortization	(20,029)	(18,171)
Total property and equipment, net	30,200	29,537
Operating lease right-of-use assets	8,094	7,850
Other assets
Goodwill	4,091	4,091
Intangibles, net of accumulated amortization of $827 and $786, respectively	2,059	1,988
Deferred tax asset	3,099	3,556
Other assets	1,904	2,109
Total other assets	11,153	11,744
Total assets	64,716	66,467
Current liabilities
Current maturities of long-term debt and finance leases	3,274	2,489
Accounts payable	2,149	1,772
Accrued salaries and wages	1,713	1,489
Operating lease liabilities	1,465	1,507
Other accrued liabilities	2,981	2,766
Total current liabilities	21,496	19,006
Noncurrent liabilities
Long-term debt and finance leases, net of current maturities	32,389	35,571
Pension and postretirement benefits	2,837	5,053
Loyalty program liability	5,976	6,239
Operating lease liabilities	6,559	6,610
Other liabilities	1,258	1,328
Total noncurrent liabilities	49,019	54,801
Commitments and contingencies
Stockholders' equity (deficit)
Common stock	6	6
Additional paid-in capital	7,291	7,234
Accumulated other comprehensive loss	(4,585)	(5,942)	(7,103)
Retained deficit	(8,511)	(8,638)
Total stockholders' deficit	(5,799)	(7,340)	$ (6,867)	$ (118)
Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity (deficit)	64,716	66,467
Air traffic liability
Current liabilities
Deferred revenue, current	6,745	6,087
Loyalty program liability
Current liabilities
Deferred revenue, current	$ 3,169	$ 2,896