Agree Realty Corp Stock Research

Market Summary

USD64.59+0.40

Market Closed

0.62%

ADC Alerts

3 major insider buys recently.
Big jump in Revenue (Y/Y)

ADC Stock Price

ADC RSI Chart

ADC Valuation

Market Cap

6.0B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

38.08

Price/Sales (Trailing)

13.14

Price/Free Cashflow

15.25

ADC Price/Sales (Trailing)

ADC Profitability

Return on Equity

3.29%

Return on Assets

2.27%

Free Cashflow Yield

6.56%

ADC Fundamentals

ADC Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

458.1M

Revenue Y/Y

28.75%

Revenue Q/Q

8.66%

ADC Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

158.1M

Earnings Y/Y

14.67%

Earnings Q/Q

1.68%

Price Action

52 Week Range

63.1179.64

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-2.0%

Last 30 days

-2.2%

Last 90 days

-9.8%

Trailing 12 Months

-3.6%

ADC Financial Health

Debt/Equity

0.47

Debt/Cashflow

0.15

ADC Investor Care

Shares Dilution (1Y)

23.98%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

1.79

Peers (Alternatives to Agree Realty)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
PSA	50.3B	4.3B	-0.67%	-7.84%	11.56	11.69	18.80%	113.99%
DLR	28.8B	4.9B	1.25%	-24.57%	77.2	5.88	9.82%	-73.28%
EQR	22.6B	2.0B	-1.01%	-20.50%	24.61	11.43	-20.93%	-31.79%
ARE	19.1B	2.7B	-6.88%	-30.41%	25.48	7.14	18.91%	81.13%
KIM	13.2B	1.7B	-4.07%	-25.83%	104.43	7.61	15.49%	-81.09%
MID-CAP
FRT	7.1B	1.1B	-8.04%	-21.25%	18.25	6.51	10.19%	46.60%
KRG	4.3B	814.4M	-2.26%	-4.29%	465.69	5.23	63.41%	107.43%
VNO	2.6B	1.8B	-10.72%	-60.29%	-6.95	1.42	9.23%	-286.27%
MAC	2.0B	857.9M	-0.32%	-17.87%	-23.05	2.35	-1.75%	-315.36%
SMALL-CAP
SKT	2.1B	421.5M	12.31%	19.76%	23.93	5.05	1.34%	437.34%
SLG	1.4B	862.4M	-3.29%	-61.71%	-11.46	1.67	7.01%	-127.00%
AIV	1.2B	184.6M	6.32%	29.74%	12.67	6.33	2.55%	1950.56%
PGRE	923.1M	745.2M	2.66%	-52.44%	-24.26	1.24	2.17%	-183.81%

Financials for Agree Realty

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2023Q1	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1
Revenue	6.6%	458	430	405	382	360
S&GA Expenses	4.0%	31.00	30.00	29.00	28.00	26.00
Costs and Expenses	7.6%	233	217	204	189	176
Interest Expenses	6.4%	68.00	63.00	60.00	56.00	53.00
Net Income	3.7%	158	152	145	142	129
Net Income Margin	-1.0%	0.35*	0.36*	0.37*	0.36*	-
Free Cahsflow	10.0%	362	329	278	262	-

Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2023Q1	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1
Assets	4.1%	6,986	6,713	6,556	6,038	5,639
Cash Equivalents	-53.4%	13.00	28.00	250	26.00	25.00
Liabilities	5.1%	2,189	2,083	2,007	2,064	1,963
Long Term Debt	-	1,854	-	-	-	-
Shareholder's Equity	3.6%	4,798	4,629	4,547	3,974	3,676
Additional Paid-In Capital	4.2%	4,853	4,659	4,551	3,949	3,647
Shares Outstanding	3.4%	93.00	90.00	89.00	80.00	75.00
Minority Interest	-6.6%	1.00	1.00	2.00	2.00	2.00

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2023Q1	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1
Cashflow From Operations	9.0%	395	362	329	278	262
Share Based Compensation	3.0%	7.00	6.00	6.00	5.00	5.00
Cashflow From Investing	6.7%	-1,508	-1,615	-1,500	-1,473	-1,438
Cashflow From Financing	-11.1%	1,101	1,238	1,320	1,033	1,195
Dividend Payments	7.5%	237	220	204	193	182
Buy Backs	45.1%	3.00	2.00	2.00	2.00	2.00

Risks for ADC

What is the probability of a big loss on ADC?

19.6%

Probability that Agree Realty stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

19.2%

Probability that Agree Realty stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

Probability that Agree Realty stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does ADC drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Agree Realty was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for ADC

Cumulative Returns on ADC

11.5%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

10.2%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

8.1%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

3.3%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for ADC?

FIve years rolling returns for Agree Realty.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold ADC recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-05-23	Front Row Advisors LLC	reduced	-3.45	-	6,000	-%
2023-05-23	Brookfield Corp /ON/	reduced	-14.11	-10,352,300	50,817,000	0.20%
2023-05-22	AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC	reduced	-49.84	-16,762,100	15,991,900	-%
2023-05-19	Coppell Advisory Solutions LLC	sold off	-100	-70,930	-	-%
2023-05-18	Harvest Portfolios Group Inc.	reduced	-5.17	-36,875	408,778	0.02%
2023-05-18	NEW YORK STATE COMMON RETIREMENT FUND	reduced	-25.7	-1,219,000	3,115,000	-%
2023-05-18	JPMORGAN CHASE & CO	added	33.56	24,683,000	109,230,000	0.01%
2023-05-17	VIRGINIA RETIREMENT SYSTEMS ET AL	added	404	5,367,540	6,617,770	0.07%
2023-05-17	Advisory Services Network, LLC	reduced	-2.66	-8,563	137,837	-%
2023-05-17	Thrivent Financial for Lutherans	reduced	-2.99	-4,712,000	71,706,000	0.17%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying ADC calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own ADC

No. of Funds

Agree Realty News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Agree Realty

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 15, 2023	principal real estate investors llc	3.49%	3,095,267	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	15.77%	13,970,181	SC 13G/A
Feb 06, 2023	state street corp	6.02%	5,331,244	SC 13G/A
Jan 26, 2023	blackrock inc.	19.4%	17,163,492	SC 13G/A
Jan 20, 2023	blackrock inc.	19.4%	17,163,492	SC 13G
Feb 15, 2022	principal real estate investors llc	5.27%	3,759,175	SC 13G
Feb 14, 2022	cohen & steers, inc.	1.83%	1,320,582	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2022	vanguard group inc	15.40%	11,095,127	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2022	state street corp	5.36%	3,861,931	SC 13G
Jan 27, 2022	blackrock inc.	19.2%	13,667,653	SC 13G/A

ADC Fair Value

Agree Realty fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Agree Realty for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	73.59 13.93%	92.77 43.63%	154.35 138.97%	211.43 227.34%	255.53 295.62%
Current Inflation	67.57 4.61%	83.76 29.68%	135.60 109.94%	182.83 183.06%	219.27 239.48%
Very High Inflation	60.25 -6.72%	72.99 13.01%	113.80 76.19%	150.09 132.37%	178.09 175.72%

Historical Agree Realty Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Agree Realty

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
May 26, 2023	4	Insider Trading
May 24, 2023	4	Insider Trading
May 18, 2023	4	Insider Trading
May 18, 2023	4	Insider Trading
May 15, 2023	4	Insider Trading
May 15, 2023	4	Insider Trading
May 11, 2023	8-K	Current Report
May 10, 2023	4	Insider Trading
May 05, 2023	424B5	Prospectus Filed
May 05, 2023	8-K	Current Report

Latest Insider Trading transactions for ADC

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-05-24	Agree Joey	bought	324,550	64.91	5,000	president & ceo
2023-05-17	Erlich Craig	bought	98,250	65.5	1,500	chief operating officer
2023-05-17	Agree Joey	bought	326,750	65.35	5,000	president & ceo
2023-05-12	Agree Joey	bought	331,800	66.36	5,000	president & ceo
2023-05-11	RAKOLTA JOHN JR	bought	498,375	66.45	7,500	-
2023-05-08	RAKOLTA JOHN JR	bought	712,086	67.85	10,495	-
2023-02-23	Erlich Craig	acquired	-	-	6,142	chief operating officer
2023-02-23	Frankel Merrie S.	acquired	-	-	1,501	-
2023-02-23	Agree Joey	sold (taxes)	-1,914,690	73.27	-26,132	president & ceo
2023-02-23	Spehar Danielle M	sold (taxes)	-63,158	73.27	-862	general counsel

About Agree Realty

Joel N. Agree

www.agreerealty.com

Agree Realty Corporation is a publicly traded real estate investment trust primarily engaged in the acquisition and development of properties net leased to industry-leading retail tenants. As of September 30, 2020, the Company owned and operated a portfolio of 1,027 properties, located in 45 states and containing approximately 21.0 million square feet of gross leasable area. The Company's common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "ADC".

ADC Income Statement

2023-03-31

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS AND COMPREHENSIVE INCOME - USD ($) $ in Thousands	3 Months Ended
	Mar. 31, 2023	Mar. 31, 2022
Revenues
Rental income	$ 126,609	$ 98,312
Other	9	30
Total Revenues	126,618	98,342
Operating Expenses
Real estate taxes	9,432	7,611
Property operating expenses	6,782	4,477
Land lease expense	430	402
General and administrative	8,821	7,622
Depreciation and amortization	40,646	28,561
Provision for impairment	0	1,015
Total Operating Expenses	66,111	49,688
Gain (loss) on sale of assets, net	0	2,310
Gain (loss) on involuntary conversion, net	0	(25)
Income from Operations	60,507	50,939
Other (Expense) Income
Interest expense, net	(17,998)	(13,931)
Income tax (expense) benefit	(783)	(719)
Other (expense) income	48	0
Net Income	41,774	36,289
Less net income attributable to non-controlling interest	160	176
Net income attributable to Agree Realty Corporation	41,614	36,113
Less Series A preferred stock dividends	1,859	1,859
Net Income Attributable to Common Stockholders	$ 39,755	$ 34,254
Net Income Per Share Attributable to Common Stockholders
Basic	$ 0.44	$ 0.48
Diluted	$ 0.44	$ 0.48
Other Comprehensive Income
Net income	$ 41,774	$ 36,289
Amortization of interest rate swaps	(629)	82
Change in fair value and settlement of interest rate swaps	0	20,581
Total comprehensive income (loss)	41,145	56,952
Less comprehensive income (loss) attributable to non-controlling interest	158	276
Comprehensive Income (Loss) Attributable to Agree Realty Corporation	$ 40,987	$ 56,676
Weighted Average Number of Common Shares Outstanding - Basic	90,028,255	71,228,930
Weighted Average Number of Common Shares Outstanding - Diluted	90,548,172	71,336,103

ADC Balance Sheet

2023-03-31

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Mar. 31, 2023	Dec. 31, 2022
Real Estate Investments
Land	$ 2,005,606	$ 1,941,599
Buildings	4,281,164	4,054,679
Less accumulated depreciation	(347,778)	(321,142)
Real estate investments excluding property under development	5,938,992	5,675,136
Property under development	73,123	65,932
Net Real Estate Investments	6,012,115	5,741,068
Cash and Cash Equivalents	11,809	27,763
Cash Held in Escrows	1,131	1,146
Accounts Receivable - Tenants, net	71,089	65,841
Lease Intangibles, net of accumulated amortization of $286,748 and $263,011 at March 31, 2023 and December 31, 2022, respectively	803,654	799,448
Other Assets, net	86,629	77,923
Total Assets	6,986,427	6,713,189
LIABILITIES
Mortgage Notes Payable, net	47,842	47,971
Senior Unsecured Notes, net	1,792,611	1,792,047
Unsecured Revolving Credit Facility	196,000	100,000
Dividends and Distributions Payable	23,071	22,345
Accounts Payable, Accrued Expenses, and Other Liabilities	92,733	83,722
Lease Intangibles, net of accumulated amortization of $37,494 and $35,992 at March 31, 2023 and December 31, 2022, respectively	36,326	36,714
Total Liabilities	2,188,583	2,082,799
EQUITY
Preferred stock, $.0001 par value per share, 4,000,000 shares authorized, 7,000 shares Series A outstanding, at stated liquidation value of $25,000 per share, at March 31, 2023 and December 31, 2022	175,000	175,000
Common stock, $.0001 par value, 180,000,000 shares authorized, 93,198,079 and 90,173,424 shares issued and outstanding at March 31, 2023 and December 31, 2022, respectively	9	9
Additional paid-in-capital	4,852,927	4,658,570
Dividends in excess of net income	(254,316)	(228,132)
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)	22,924	23,551
Total Equity - Agree Realty Corporation	4,796,544	4,628,998
Non-controlling interest	1,300	1,392
Total Equity	4,797,844	4,630,390
Total Liabilities and Equity	$ 6,986,427	$ 6,713,189