ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD5.02+0.23

Delayed

4.80%

ARR Stock Price

ARR RSI Chart

ARR Valuation

Market Cap

817.8M

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

-3.56

Price/Sales (Trailing)

104.85

Price/Free Cashflow

6.59

ARR Price/Sales (Trailing)

ARR Profitability

Return on Equity

-20.67%

Return on Assets

-2.44%

Free Cashflow Yield

15.17%

ARR Fundamentals

ARR Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

7.8M

Revenue Y/Y

-2.5%

ARR Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

-229.9M

Earnings Y/Y

289.73%

Earnings Q/Q

127.31%

Price Action

52 Week Range

4.227.64

(Low)(High)

Last 30 days

-11.1%

Last 90 days

-14.8%

Trailing 12 Months

-32.1%

ARR Financial Health

ARR Investor Care

Dividend Yield

23.9%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

1.2

Shares Dilution (1Y)

73.03%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

-2.05

Peers (Alternatives to ARMOUR Residential REIT)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
AXP	118.7B	43.0B	-8.54%	-14.53%	15.8	2.76	24.07%	-6.77%
GS	104.7B	39.7B	-13.39%	-5.14%	9.3	2.64	-24.93%	-47.95%
SCHW	100.5B	20.8B	-33.43%	-40.90%	13.99	4.84	12.11%	22.68%
BLK	96.6B	17.9B	-6.19%	-12.03%	18.65	5.4	-7.75%	-12.25%
MID-CAP
NLY	8.9B	2.8B	-10.88%	-26.54%	5.14	3.19	40.13%	-27.81%
AGNC	5.6B	1.6B	-12.98%	-18.06%	-4.73	3.54	16.83%	-258.88%
STWD	5.2B	1.5B	-13.28%	-26.53%	6.01	3.57	25.18%	94.64%
NRZ	4.3B	4.7B	14.03%	22.72%	4.38	0.91	30.51%	22.06%
NYMT	3.3B	258.4M	222.11%	179.36%	-11.21	12.96	24.91%	-254.56%
BXMT	3.0B	1.3B	-20.55%	-41.12%	12.02	2.23	56.66%	-40.69%
HASI	2.4B	239.7M	-16.16%	-41.93%	56.91	9.85	12.46%	-67.21%
SMALL-CAP
PMT	1.0B	909.6M	-14.49%	-23.78%	-14.03	1.13	52.78%	-228.90%
MFA	929.5M	482.4M	-14.27%	-38.99%	-4.01	1.93	33.15%	-170.42%
BRMK	588.5M	106.1M	6.94%	-42.28%	-5.06	5.55	-12.00%	-241.10%
IVR	418.9M	194.5M	-17.40%	-41.72%	-1.04	2.15	14.96%	-347.69%

Financials for ARMOUR Residential REIT

Income Statement (Last 12 Months)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	-0.6%	7,800,000	7,850,000	8,000,000	8,150,000	8,600,000
Operating Expenses	0.7%	45,633,000	45,328,000	44,816,000	44,198,000	43,515,000
EBITDA	-	42,476,000	-	-	-	-
EBITDA Margin	-	4.94	-	-	-	-
EBT Margin	-	-3.63	-	-	-	-
Interest Expenses	-3.3%	107,638,000	111,342,000	106,618,000	88,243,000	73,368,000
Net Income	20.7%	-229,930,000	-290,112,000	-111,815,000	-122,398,000	15,363,000
Net Income Margin	20.2%	-29.48	-36.96	-13.98	-15.02	-
Free Cahsflow	2985.9%	124,085,000	4,021,000	-98,940,000	-93,163,000	-

Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	-13.5%	9,437	10,915	8,857	8,707	5,277
Cash Equivalents	-61.6%	118	308	234	326	356
Liabilities	-16.5%	8,325	9,971	7,884	7,685	4,134
Shareholder's Equity	17.8%	1,112	944	973	1,022	1,144
Retained Earnings	4.9%	-758	-797	-653	-595	-528
Additional Paid-In Capital	4.7%	3,875	3,702	3,538	3,458	3,403
Shares Outstanding	22.9%	163	133	111	100	94.00

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Thousands)
Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Thousands)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	2985.9%	124,085	4,021	-98,940	-93,163	11,738
Share Based Compensation	-7.3%	3,696	3,985	4,258	4,504	4,768
Cashflow From Investing	20.2%	-3,894,975	-4,881,081	-3,351,338	-2,753,248	503,576
Cashflow From Financing	-29.7%	3,532,764	5,028,644	3,153,707	2,842,210	-330,766
Dividend Payments	12.7%	142,424	126,325	114,641	105,681	96,630
Buy Backs	41.7%	7,664	5,410	1,544	0.00	0.00

Risks for ARR

What is the probability of a big loss on ARR?

53.1%

Probability that ARMOUR Residential REIT stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

39.2%

Probability that ARMOUR Residential REIT stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

28.9%

Probability that ARMOUR Residential REIT stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does ARR drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if ARMOUR Residential REIT was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for ARR

Cumulative Returns on ARR

-10.1%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

-9.2%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

-17.2%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

-4.3%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for ARR?

FIve years rolling returns for ARMOUR Residential REIT.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold ARR recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	added	1,112	1,425,410	1,534,410	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	unchanged	-	30,792	228,792	-%
2023-02-27	Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P.	new	-	1,081	1,081	-%
2023-02-22	Kovack Advisors, Inc.	added	17.09	34,851	131,851	0.02%
2023-02-22	TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY	added	35.21	71,000	197,000	-%
2023-02-21	MACQUARIE GROUP LTD	sold off	-	-3,000	-	-%
2023-02-17	TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP	reduced	-0.29	61,163	468,163	-%
2023-02-16	HARBOUR INVESTMENTS, INC.	reduced	-7.4	-6,630	19,370	-%
2023-02-15	State of Tennessee, Treasury Department	added	13.00	100,000	426,000	-%
2023-02-15	IHT Wealth Management, LLC	added	61.2	89,199	193,199	0.01%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying ARR calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own ARR

No. of Funds

ARMOUR Residential REIT News

Schedule 13G FIlings of ARMOUR Residential REIT

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Mar 08, 2023	blackrock inc.	12.8%	24,689,059	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	11.44%	15,111,119	SC 13G/A
Jan 26, 2023	blackrock inc.	17.9%	23,602,620	SC 13G/A
Jan 20, 2023	blackrock inc.	17.9%	23,602,620	SC 13G
Feb 09, 2022	vanguard group inc	10.58%	9,491,504	SC 13G/A
Jan 27, 2022	blackrock inc.	17.7%	15,884,701	SC 13G/A
Jan 26, 2022	blackrock inc.	17.7%	15,884,701	SC 13G/A
Mar 10, 2021	vanguard group inc	10.00%	6,529,324	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2021	vanguard group inc	9.67%	6,258,398	SC 13G/A
Jan 25, 2021	blackrock inc.	17.7%	11,476,607	SC 13G

ARR Fair Value

Recent SEC filings of ARMOUR Residential REIT

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 23, 2023	ARS	ARS
Mar 23, 2023	DEF 14A	DEF 14A
Mar 23, 2023	DEFA14A	DEFA14A
Mar 10, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Mar 08, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 23, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 23, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 23, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 23, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 23, 2023	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for ARR

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-02-21	HOLLIHAN JOHN P III	acquired	-	-	2,600	-
2023-02-21	ULM SCOTT	back to issuer	-49,318	5.63	-8,760	co-ceo
2023-02-21	MOUNTAIN JAMES R	acquired	-	-	9,300	chief financial officer
2023-02-21	Harper Gordon	acquired	-	-	4,900	vp finance and controller
2023-02-21	Hain Robert C	acquired	-	-	2,600	-
2023-02-21	BELL MARC H	acquired	-	-	5,900	-
2023-02-21	MOUNTAIN JAMES R	back to issuer	-20,831	5.63	-3,700	chief financial officer
2023-02-21	Zimmer Jeffrey J	back to issuer	-49,318	5.63	-8,760	co-ceo and president
2023-02-21	HOLLIHAN JOHN P III	back to issuer	-5,855	5.63	-1,040	-
2023-02-21	STATON DANIEL C	acquired	-	-	5,900	chairman of the board

About ARMOUR Residential REIT

Scott J. Ulm

www.armourreit.com

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. The company's securities portfolio primarily consists of the United States Government-sponsored entity's (GSE) and the Government National Mortgage Administration's issued or guaranteed securities backed by fixed rate, hybrid adjustable rate, and adjustable-rate home loans, as well as unsecured notes and bonds issued by the GSE and the United States treasuries, as well as money market instruments. It also invests in other securities backed by residential mortgages for which the payment of principal and interest is not guaranteed by a GSE or government agency. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust under the Internal Revenue Code. As a result, it would not be subject to corporate income tax on that portion of its net income that is distributed to shareholders. ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Vero Beach, Florida.

ARR Income Statement

2022-12-31

Consolidated Statements of Operations and Comprehensive Income (Loss) - USD ($)
shares in Thousands, $ in Thousands

12 Months Ended

Dec. 31, 2022

Dec. 31, 2021

Dec. 31, 2020

Interest Income:

Interest Income (including $1,597, $70 and $333, respectively with BUCKLER)

$ 228,432

$ 80,478

$ 169,402

Interest expense (including $(59,807), $(3,504) and $(38,663), respectively with BUCKLER)

(120,794)

(7,110)

(62,971)

Net Interest Income

107,638

73,368

106,431

Other Income (Loss):

Realized gain (loss) on sale of available for sale Agency Securities (reclassified from Other comprehensive loss)

(7,452)

10,952

143,877

Impairment losses on available for sale Agency Securities

(4,183)

(1,012)

Gain (loss) on Agency Securities, trading

(946,666)

(77,145)

19,557

Gain (loss) on derivatives, net

^[1]

810,834

52,494

(283,801)

Total Other Loss

(299,735)

(23,090)

(289,577)

Expenses:

Management fees

33,774

31,108

29,628

Compensation

5,485

6,614

5,597

Other Operating

6,374

5,793

5,595

Total Expenses

45,633

43,515

40,820

Less management fees waived

(7,800)

(8,600)

(8,855)

Total Expenses after fees waived

37,833

34,915

31,965

Net Income (Loss)

(229,930)

15,363

(215,112)

Dividends on preferred stock

(11,982)

(11,473)

(9,787)

Net Income (Loss) available (related) to common stockholders

(241,912)

3,890

(224,899)

Net Income (Loss) available (related) to common stockholders

(241,912)

3,890

(224,899)

Reclassification adjustment for realized (gain) loss on sale of available for sale Agency Securities

7,452

(10,952)

(143,877)

Reclassification adjustment for impairment losses on available for sale Agency Securities

4,183

1,012

Net unrealized loss on available for sale Agency Securities

(130,135)

(61,106)

(33,577)

Other Comprehensive loss

(118,500)

(72,058)

(176,442)

Comprehensive Loss

(348,430)

(56,695)

(391,554)

Dividends on preferred stock

11,982

11,473

9,787

Comprehensive Loss related to common stockholders

$ (360,412)

$ (68,168)

$ (401,341)

Earnings Per Share [Abstract]

Basic (in dollars per share)

$ (2.05)

$ 0.05

$ (3.57)

Diluted (in dollars per share)

(2.05)

0.05

(3.57)

Dividends declared per common share (in dollars per share)

$ 1.20

Weighted average common shares outstanding:

Basic (in shares)

117,968

79,490

63,070

Diluted (in shares)

117,968

80,313

63,070

Agency Securities

Other Income (Loss):

Realized gain (loss) on sale of available for sale Agency Securities (reclassified from Other comprehensive loss)

$ (7,452)

$ 10,952

$ 143,877

Gain (loss) on Agency Securities, trading

(946,666)

(77,145)

19,557

Collateralized Mortgage-Backed Securities

Other Income (Loss):

Debt securities, trading, gain (loss)

(189,555)

U.S. Treasury Securities

Other Income (Loss):

Debt securities, trading, gain (loss)

$ (152,268)

$ (9,391)

$ 21,357

[1]	Interest expense related to our interest rate swap contracts is recorded as realized loss on derivatives on the consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive income (loss). For additional information, see Note 7 to the consolidated financial statements.

ARR Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($)	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Assets
Cash	$ 87,284,000	$ 337,664,000
Cash collateral posted to counterparties	30,806,000	18,552,000
Investments in securities, at fair value:
Derivatives, at fair value	984,456,000	199,073,000
Accrued interest receivable	28,809,000	10,570,000
Prepaid and other	2,101,000	1,094,000
Subordinated loan to BUCKLER	105,000,000	105,000,000
Total Assets	9,437,047,000	5,277,307,000
Liabilities:
Repurchase agreements, net (including $3,247,474 and $1,963,679, respectively with BUCKLER)	6,463,058,000	3,948,037,000
Obligations to return securities received as collateral, at fair value (including $100,531 with BUCKLER)	502,656,000	0
Cash collateral posted by counterparties	963,591,000	171,060,000
Payable for unsettled purchases	353,436,000	0
Derivatives, at fair value	13,016,000	10,900,000
Accrued interest payable- repurchase agreements (including $9,908 and $457, respectively with BUCKLER)	19,096,000	944,000
Accrued interest payable- U.S. Treasury Securities sold short (including $684 with BUCKLER)	3,418,000	0
Accounts payable and other accrued expenses	6,404,000	2,727,000
Total Liabilities	8,324,675,000	4,133,668,000
Commitments and contingencies (Note 8)
Preferred Stock, Number of Shares, Par Value and Other Disclosure [Abstract]
Common stock, $0.001 par value, 300,000 and 200,000 shares authorized; 162,911 shares and 94,152 shares issued and outstanding at December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively.	163,000	94,000
Additional paid-in capital	3,874,627,000	3,403,127,000
Cumulative distributions to stockholders	(1,992,361,000)	(1,837,955,000)
Accumulated net loss	(758,537,000)	(528,607,000)
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)	(11,527,000)	106,973,000
Total Stockholders’ Equity	1,112,372,000	1,143,639,000
Total Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity	9,437,047,000	5,277,307,000
Series C Preferred Stock
Preferred Stock, Number of Shares, Par Value and Other Disclosure [Abstract]
Preferred stock, $0.001 par value, 50,000 shares authorized; 7.00% Series C Cumulative Preferred Stock; 6,847 shares issued and outstanding ($171,175 aggregate liquidation preference) at December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021.	7,000	7,000
Agency Securities
Investments in securities, at fair value:
Debt securities	8,198,591,000	4,406,521,000
U.S. Treasury Securities
Investments in securities, at fair value:
Debt securities	$ 0	$ 198,833,000