Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd Stock Research

Market Summary

USD75.13+0.34

Market Closed

0.45%

CP Alerts

Big jump in Earnings (Y/Y)

CP Stock Price

CP RSI Chart

CP Valuation

Market Cap

69.9B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

19.88

Price/Sales (Trailing)

7.93

EV/EBITDA

15.53

Price/Free Cashflow

27.04

CP Price/Sales (Trailing)

CP Profitability

EBT Margin

47.03%

Return on Equity

9.04%

Return on Assets

4.79%

Free Cashflow Yield

3.7%

CP Fundamentals

CP Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

8.8B

Revenue Y/Y

20.69%

Revenue Q/Q

6.49%

CP Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

3.5B

Earnings Y/Y

138.91%

Earnings Q/Q

42.65%

Price Action

52 Week Range

65.1784.22

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-5.7%

Last 30 days

-1.5%

Last 90 days

-0.5%

Trailing 12 Months

-8.5%

CP Financial Health

Current Ratio

0.59

Debt/Equity

0.47

Debt/Cashflow

0.23

CP Investor Care

Dividend Yield

1.01%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

0.76

Shares Dilution (1Y)

0.09%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

3.77

Peers (Alternatives to Canadian Pacific Railway)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
UNP	115.4B	24.9B	-1.50%	-30.24%	16.5	4.64	14.08%	7.28%
CP	69.9B	8.8B	-1.47%	-8.45%	19.88	7.93	10.24%	23.32%
CSX	58.4B	14.9B	-5.80%	-22.74%	14.01	3.92	18.99%	10.18%
NSC	45.7B	12.7B	-9.79%	-27.27%	13.97	3.58	14.39%	8.82%
KSU	27.2B	3.4B	-	-	23.98	8.72	14.36%	87.01%
MID-CAP
KNX	8.9B	7.4B	-4.42%	3.69%	11.54	1.2	23.85%	3.76%
SAIA	7.2B	2.8B	-1.14%	-2.25%	20.1	2.57	21.99%	41.14%
LSTR	5.6B	7.4B	-3.70%	13.89%	12.32	0.72	13.75%	12.95%
SNDR	4.5B	6.6B	-8.66%	-2.48%	9.92	0.69	17.75%	12.93%
WERN	2.7B	3.3B	-8.92%	1.47%	11.1	0.81	20.32%	-6.87%
ARCB	2.2B	5.3B	-7.27%	1.75%	7.4	0.41	34.66%	39.66%
SMALL-CAP
MRTN	1.6B	1.3B	-9.39%	5.64%	14.68	1.28	29.81%	36.36%
HTLD	1.2B	968.0M	-8.16%	6.40%	9.05	1.25	59.40%	68.50%
ULH	725.0M	2.0B	-9.15%	31.51%	4.79	0.36	21.24%	105.25%
USX	307.3M	2.2B	331.88%	44.66%	-6.99	0.14	10.91%	-504.67%

Financials for Canadian Pacific Railway

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	5.0%	8,814	8,392	8,022	7,874	7,995
EBITDA	16.9%	5,639	4,823	4,372	4,742	-
EBITDA Margin	11.3%	0.64*	0.57*	0.53*	0.60*	-
Earnings Before Taxes	20.0%	4,145	3,455	3,009	3,502	3,620
EBT Margin	14.2%	0.47*	0.41*	0.36*	0.44*	-
Interest Expenses	21.4%	641	528	533	421	426
Net Income	26.6%	3,517	2,778	2,359	2,840	2,852
Net Income Margin	20.5%	0.40*	0.33*	0.28*	0.36*	-
Free Cahsflow	62.9%	2,585	1,587	1,083	2,284	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	0.1%	73,495	73,435	69,874	67,592	68,177
Current Assets	14.9%	1,889	1,644	1,611	1,407	1,352
Cash Equivalents	226.8%	451	138	154	98.00	69.00
Net PPE	3.0%	22,150	21,502	21,120	21,200	-
Goodwill	-	328	-	-	-	-
Liabilities	-2.8%	34,609	35,621	34,460	33,607	34,348
Current Liabilities	14.3%	3,213	2,811	3,209	3,191	3,159
Long Term Debt	-6.2%	18,141	19,339	18,372	17,917	18,577
Shareholder's Equity	2.8%	38,886	37,814	35,414	33,985	33,829
Retained Earnings	9.0%	13,201	12,106	11,392	10,804	10,391
Additional Paid-In Capital	1.3%	78.00	77.00	73.00	68.00	66.00
Shares Outstanding	0.0%	931	930	930	930	930

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	36.9%	4,142	3,026	2,472	3,719	3,688
Share Based Compensation	-15.2%	128	151	131	-	-
Cashflow From Investing	87.4%	-1,496	-11,888	-13,607	-13,650	-13,730
Cashflow From Financing	-126.3%	-2,297	8,721	10,344	9,625	9,936
Dividend Payments	7.6%	707	657	607	557	507
Buy Backs	NaN%	0.00	0.00	-	-	-

Risks for CP

What is the probability of a big loss on CP?

35%

Probability that Canadian Pacific Railway stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

18.5%

Probability that Canadian Pacific Railway stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

Probability that Canadian Pacific Railway stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does CP drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Canadian Pacific Railway was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for CP

Cumulative Returns on CP

12.4%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

17.4%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

17.8%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

22.8%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for CP?

FIve years rolling returns for Canadian Pacific Railway.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold CP recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-15	B. Riley Wealth Advisors, Inc.	reduced	-20.01	-68,773	580,227	0.02%
2023-03-10	BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	reduced	-1.8	8,978,790	108,445,000	0.11%
2023-03-06	Aldebaran Financial Inc.	unchanged	-	21,765	233,765	0.25%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	reduced	-18.77	-258,000	2,541,000	0.01%
2023-03-03	TIAA, FSB	reduced	-11.84	-9,220	626,780	-%
2023-03-02	OLIVER LAGORE VANVALIN INVESTMENT GROUP	unchanged	-	343	1,343	-%
2023-03-02	LORING WOLCOTT & COOLIDGE FIDUCIARY ADVISORS LLP/MA	new	-	304,179	304,179	-%
2023-02-28	CONTINENTAL INVESTORS SERVICES, INC.	unchanged	-	50,124	473,124	1.47%
2023-02-27	ST GERMAIN D J CO INC	new	-	83,914	83,914	0.03%
2023-02-24	SRS Capital Advisors, Inc.	reduced	-4.59	8,964	140,964	0.02%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying CP calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own CP

No. of Funds

CP Alerts

Big jump in Earnings (Y/Y)

Canadian Pacific Railway News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Canadian Pacific Railway

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Mar 11, 2022	blackrock inc.	5.8%	39,007,418	SC 13G
Mar 09, 2022	blackrock inc.	4.2%	39,110,995	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2022	tci fund management ltd	6.01%	55,860,385	SC 13G/A
Feb 08, 2022	blackrock inc.	5.8%	39,007,418	SC 13G
Feb 16, 2021	tci fund management ltd	8.31%	11,172,077	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2020	tci fund management ltd	8.01%	10,978,084	SC 13G/A
Sep 03, 2019	tci fund management ltd	7.62%	10,565,984	SC 13G/A

CP Fair Value

Canadian Pacific Railway fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Canadian Pacific Railway for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	45.91 -38.89%	54.45 -27.53%	79.72 6.11%	104.72 39.39%	120.63 60.56%
Current Inflation	42.99 -42.78%	50.29 -33.06%	71.54 -4.78%	92.43 23.03%	105.58 40.53%
Very High Inflation	39.35 -47.62%	45.24 -39.78%	61.92 -17.58%	78.23 4.13%	88.35 17.60%

Historical Canadian Pacific Railway Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Canadian Pacific Railway

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 23, 2023	10-K/A	Annual Report
Mar 20, 2023	F-4	F-4
Mar 20, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Mar 17, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Mar 16, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Mar 15, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Mar 08, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Mar 06, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Mar 02, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Feb 27, 2023	8-K	Current Report

About Canadian Pacific Railway

Keith E. Creel

www.cpr.ca

11800

Canadian Pacific Railway Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates a transcontinental freight railway in Canada and the United States. The company transports bulk commodities, including grain, coal, potash, fertilizers, and sulphur; and merchandise freight, such as energy, chemicals and plastics, metals, minerals and consumer, automotive, and forest products. It also transports intermodal traffic comprising retail goods in overseas containers. The company offers rail and intermodal transportation services through a network of approximately 13,000 miles serving business centers in Quebec and British Columbia, Canada; and the United States Northeast and Midwest regions. Canadian Pacific Railway Limited was incorporated in 1881 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

CP Income Statement

2022-12-31

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOME - CAD ($) shares in Millions, $ in Millions	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
Revenues
Total revenues	$ 8,814	$ 7,995	$ 7,710
Operating expenses
Compensation and benefits	1,570	1,570	1,560
Fuel	1,400	854	652
Materials	260	215	216
Equipment rents	140	121	142
Depreciation and amortization	853	811	779
Purchased services and other	1,262	1,218	1,050
Total operating expenses	5,485	4,789	4,399
Operating income	3,329	3,206	3,311
Less:
Equity (earnings) loss of Kansas City Southern	(1,074)	141	0
Other expense (income)	17	237	(7)
Merger termination fee	0	(845)	0
Other components of net periodic benefit recovery	(411)	(387)	(342)
Net interest expense	652	440	458
Income before income tax expense	4,145	3,620	3,202
Income tax expense	628	768	758
Net income	$ 3,517	$ 2,852	$ 2,444
Earnings per share
Basic earnings per share (cad per share)	$ 3.78	$ 4.20	$ 3.61
Diluted earnings per share (cad per share)	$ 3.77	$ 4.18	$ 3.59
Weighted-average number of shares (millions)
Basic (in shares)	930.0	679.7	677.2
Diluted (in shares)	932.9	682.8	679.9
Freight
Revenues
Total revenues	$ 8,627	$ 7,816	$ 7,541
Non-freight
Revenues
Total revenues	$ 187	$ 179	$ 169

CP Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS - CAD ($) $ in Millions	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 451	$ 69
Restricted cash and cash equivalents	0	13
Accounts receivable, net	1,016	819
Materials and supplies	284	235
Other current assets	138	216
Total current assets	1,889	1,352
Investment in Kansas City Southern	45,091	42,309
Investments	223	209
Properties	22,385	21,200
Goodwill and intangible assets	386	371
Pension asset	3,101	2,317
Other assets	420	419
Total assets	73,495	68,177
Current liabilities
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities	1,703	1,609
Long-term debt maturing within one year	1,510	1,550
Total current liabilities	3,213	3,159
Pension and other benefit liabilities	538	718
Other long-term liabilities	520	542
Long-term debt	18,141	18,577
Deferred income taxes	12,197	11,352
Total liabilities	34,609	34,348
Shareholders’ equity
Share capital	25,516	25,475
Additional paid-in capital	78	66
Accumulated other comprehensive loss	91	(2,103)
Retained earnings	13,201	10,391
Total shareholders' equity	38,886	33,829
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity	$ 73,495	$ 68,177