Custom Truck One Source Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD6.54-0.05

Delayed

-0.76%

CTOS Alerts

Big jump in Revenue (Y/Y)
Big jump in Earnings (Y/Y)

CTOS Stock Price

CTOS RSI Chart

CTOS Valuation

Market Cap

1.6B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

41.74

Price/Sales (Trailing)

1.03

EV/EBITDA

8.46

Price/Free Cashflow

35.33

CTOS Price/Sales (Trailing)

CTOS Profitability

Operating Margin

23.10%

EBT Margin

0.38%

Return on Equity

0.49%

Return on Assets

0.15%

Free Cashflow Yield

2.83%

CTOS Fundamentals

CTOS Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

1.6B

Revenue Y/Y

36.55%

Revenue Q/Q

36.04%

CTOS Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

38.9M

Earnings Y/Y

933.21%

Earnings Q/Q

1.4K%

Price Action

52 Week Range

4.549.15

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-5.6%

Last 30 days

-7.6%

Last 90 days

6.5%

Trailing 12 Months

-25.9%

CTOS Financial Health

Current Ratio

1.43

Debt/Equity

1.58

Debt/Cashflow

0.02

CTOS Investor Care

Shares Dilution (1Y)

0.39%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

0.16

Financials for Custom Truck One Source

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	9.0%	1,573	1,443	1,442	1,455	1,167
Gross Profit	15.1%	384	333	310	274	210
Operating Expenses	3.2%	280	272	277	303	252
S&GA Expenses	7.5%	211	196	195	197	156
EBITDA	3.5%	332	321	127	37.00	-
EBITDA Margin	3.5%	0.23*	0.22*	0.09*	0.03*	-
Earnings Before Taxes	752.0%	47.00	5.00	-17.19	-153	-177
EBT Margin	131.9%	0.00*	-0.01*	-0.11*	-0.15*	-
Interest Expenses	-12.0%	81.00	92.00	91.00	71.00	93.00
Net Income	814.3%	39.00	4.00	-13.89	-156	-181
Net Income Margin	130.6%	0.00*	-0.01*	-0.11*	-0.16*	-
Free Cahsflow	-49.4%	31.00	60.00	121	139	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	3.0%	2,938	2,854	2,814	2,746	2,684
Current Assets	8.3%	868	802	783	713	657
Cash Equivalents	-45.1%	14.00	26.00	29.00	24.00	36.00
Inventory	7.4%	597	556	536	464	411
Goodwill	0.1%	704	703	706	714	696
Current Liabilities	12.9%	635	562	531	491	441
Long Term Debt	0.8%	1,365	1,353	1,329	1,315	-
LT Debt, Current	337.0%	7.00	2.00	3.00	5.00	6.00
LT Debt, Non Current	-0.6%	1,355	1,363	1,350	1,324	1,308
Shareholder's Equity	3.1%	888	862	870	859	859
Retained Earnings	4.8%	-608	-639	-637	-650	-647
Additional Paid-In Capital	0.2%	1,521	1,519	1,514	1,513	1,509
Shares Outstanding	0.1%	248	248	248	247	247

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	50.6%	46.00	31.00	60.00	121	139
Share Based Compensation	-12.9%	12.00	14.00	15.00	20.00	17.00
Cashflow From Investing	-33.7%	-218	-163	-161	-1,481	-1,429
Cashflow From Financing	9.6%	154	140	103	1,381	1,323
Buy Backs	115.1%	10.00	5.00	0.00	-	-

Risks for CTOS

What is the probability of a big loss on CTOS?

73.5%

Probability that Custom Truck One Source stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

65.4%

Probability that Custom Truck One Source stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

48.9%

Probability that Custom Truck One Source stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does CTOS drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Custom Truck One Source was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for CTOS

Cumulative Returns on CTOS

-7.5%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

39.7%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for CTOS?

FIve years rolling returns for Custom Truck One Source.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold CTOS recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	reduced	-8.63	-	15,000	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	unchanged	-	12,280	152,280	-%
2023-02-15	Metropolitan Life Insurance Co/NY	unchanged	-	1,897	22,897	-%
2023-02-15	MetLife Investment Management, LLC	reduced	-19.55	-23,666	163,334	-%
2023-02-15	JANE STREET GROUP, LLC	sold off	-100	-272,000	-	-%
2023-02-15	ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P.	added	27.84	74,864	269,864	-%
2023-02-14	Covestor Ltd	added	87.88	-	-	-%
2023-02-14	ALGERT GLOBAL LLC	sold off	-100	-98,000	-	-%
2023-02-14	Ionic Capital Management LLC	reduced	-42.81	-712,431	355,569	0.08%
2023-02-14	Mariner, LLC	added	69.57	67,000	147,000	-%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying CTOS calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own CTOS

No. of Funds

Custom Truck One Source News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Custom Truck One Source

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Dec 16, 2022	ecp controlco, llc	-	0	SC 13D/A
Feb 22, 2022	blackstone holdings iii l.p.	0%	0	SC 13D/A

CTOS Fair Value

Custom Truck One Source fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Custom Truck One Source for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	1.00 -84.71%	3.05 -53.36%	8.80 34.56%	19.16 192.97%	40.00 511.62%
Current Inflation	0.91 -86.09%	2.74 -58.10%	7.72 18.04%	16.55 153.06%	34.21 423.09%
Very High Inflation	0.81 -87.61%	2.36 -63.91%	6.44 -1.53%	13.52 106.73%	27.58 321.71%

Historical Custom Truck One Source Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Custom Truck One Source

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 14, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Mar 14, 2023	10-K	Annual Report
Mar 09, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 09, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 09, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 09, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 09, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 09, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 09, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Dec 16, 2022	SC 13D/A	13D - Major Acquisition

Latest Insider Trading transactions for CTOS

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-07	Eperjesy Christopher J	acquired	-	-	7,470	chief financial officer
2022-12-31	Carlsen James	acquired	-	-	4,376	cio
2022-12-31	McMonagle Ryan	sold (taxes)	-110,714	6.32	-17,518	president, coo
2022-12-31	Ross Joe P.	acquired	-	-	25,000	president - sales
2022-12-31	Rich Thomas R.	acquired	-	-	25,000	evp - rentals
2022-12-31	Rich Thomas R.	sold (taxes)	-68,850	6.32	-10,894	evp - rentals
2022-12-31	Ross Fredrick M. Jr.	acquired	-	-	43,750	chief executive officer
2022-12-31	Ross Joe P.	sold (taxes)	-65,626	6.32	-10,384	president - sales
2022-12-31	Haubenreich Adam G.	sold (taxes)	-39,196	6.32	-6,202	vp and general counsel
2022-12-31	Carlsen James	sold (taxes)	-9,821	6.32	-1,554	cio

About Custom Truck One Source

Fred Ross

www.customtruck.com

1800

Custom Truck One Source, Inc. provides specialty equipment rental services to the electric utility transmission and distribution, telecommunications, rail, other infrastructure-related industries in North America. It operates through Equipment Rental Solutions, Truck and Equipment Sales, and Aftermarket Parts and Services segments. The Equipment Rental Solutions owns new and used specialty equipment, including truck-mounted aerial lifts, cranes, service trucks, dump trucks, trailers, digger derricks, and other machinery and equipment. The Truck and Equipment Sales segment offers new equipment for sale to be used for end-markets which can be modified to meet customers specific needs. The Aftermarket Parts and Services segment provides truck and equipment maintenance and repair services as well as sale of specialized aftermarket parts. The company was formerly known as Nesco Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Custom Truck One Source, Inc. in April 2021. Custom Truck One Source, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.

CTOS Income Statement

2022-12-31

Consolidated Statements of Operations and Comprehensive Income (Loss) - USD ($) shares in Thousands, $ in Thousands	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
Revenue
Total revenue	$ 1,573,086	$ 1,167,154	$ 302,739
Cost of Revenue
Depreciation of rental equipment	171,703	157,110	78,532
Total cost of revenue	1,189,338	957,141	226,296
Gross Profit	383,748	210,013	76,443
Operating Expenses
Selling, general and administrative expenses	210,868	155,783	46,409
Amortization	33,940	40,754	3,153
Non-rental depreciation	9,414	3,613	95
Transaction expenses and other	26,218	51,830	9,538
Total operating expenses	280,440	251,980	59,195
Operating Income (Loss)	103,308	(41,967)	17,248
Other Expense
Loss on extinguishment of debt	0	61,695	0
Interest expense, net	88,906	72,843	63,200
Financing and other expense (income)	(32,330)	571	5,399
Total other expense	56,576	135,109	68,599
Income (Loss) Before Income Taxes	46,732	(177,076)	(51,351)
Income Tax Expense (Benefit)	7,827	4,425	(30,074)
Net Income (Loss)	38,905	(181,501)	(21,277)
Other Comprehensive Income (Loss):
Unrealized foreign currency translation adjustments, net of $505 tax	(8,947)	0	0
Other Comprehensive Income (Loss)	(8,947)	0	0
Comprehensive Income (Loss)	$ 29,958	$ (181,501)	$ (21,277)
Net Income (Loss) Per Share:
Basic (in dollars per share)	$ 0.16	$ (0.75)	$ (0.43)
Diluted (in dollars per share)	$ 0.16	$ (0.75)	$ (0.43)
Weighted-Average Common Shares Outstanding:
Basic (in shares)	247,152	241,370	49,065
Diluted (in shares)	247,705	241,370	49,065
Revenue
Revenue
Total revenue	$ 464,039	$ 370,067	$ 195,490
Cost of Revenue
Cost of rental revenue	110,272	99,885	61,207
Equipment sales
Revenue
Total revenue	982,341	695,334	56,632
Cost of Revenue
Cost of rental revenue	805,852	618,444	47,407
Parts sales and services
Revenue
Total revenue	126,706	101,753	50,617
Cost of Revenue
Cost of rental revenue	$ 101,511	$ 81,702	$ 39,150

CTOS Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current Assets
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 14,360	$ 35,902
Accounts receivable, net	193,106	168,394
Financing receivables, net	38,271	28,649
Inventory	596,724	410,542
Prepaid expenses and other	25,784	13,217
Total current assets	868,245	656,704
Property and equipment, net	121,956	108,612
Rental equipment, net	883,674	834,325
Goodwill	703,827	695,865
Intangible assets, net	304,132	327,840
Operating lease assets	29,434	36,014
Other assets	26,944	24,406
Total Assets	2,938,212	2,683,766
Current Liabilities
Accounts payable	87,255	91,123
Accrued expenses	68,784	60,337
Deferred revenue and customer deposits	34,671	35,791
Floor plan payables - trade	136,634	72,714
Floor plan payables - non-trade	293,536	165,239
Operating lease liabilities - current	5,262	4,987
Current maturities of long-term debt	6,940	6,354
Current portion of finance lease obligations	1,796	4,038
Total current liabilities	634,878	440,583
Long-term debt, net	1,354,766	1,308,265
Finance leases	3,206	5,109
Operating lease liabilities - noncurrent	24,818	31,514
Deferred income taxes	29,086	15,621
Derivative, warrants and other liabilities	3,015	24,164
Total long-term liabilities	1,414,891	1,384,673
Commitments and contingencies (see Note 19)
Stockholders' Equity
Common stock — $0.0001 par value, 500,000,000 shares authorized, 248,311,104 and 247,358,412 shares issued and outstanding, at December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively	25	25
Treasury stock, at cost — 2,241,069 and 318,086 shares at December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2021, respectively	(15,537)	(3,020)
Additional paid-in capital	1,521,487	1,508,995
Accumulated other comprehensive loss	(8,947)	0
Accumulated deficit	(608,585)	(647,490)
Total stockholders' equity	888,443	858,510
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity	$ 2,938,212	$ 2,683,766