Flowers Foods Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD27.48+0.26

Market Closed

0.96%

FLO Stock Price

FLO RSI Chart

FLO Valuation

Market Cap

5.8B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

25.51

Price/Sales (Trailing)

1.21

EV/EBITDA

12.06

Price/Free Cashflow

30.37

FLO Price/Sales (Trailing)

FLO Profitability

EBT Margin

6.22%

Return on Equity

15.82%

Return on Assets

6.89%

Free Cashflow Yield

3.29%

FLO Fundamentals

FLO Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

4.8B

Revenue Y/Y

10.08%

Revenue Q/Q

-6.52%

FLO Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

228.4M

Earnings Y/Y

23.59%

Earnings Q/Q

19.91%

Price Action

52 Week Range

24.1530.16

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-0.7%

Last 30 days

-2.3%

Last 90 days

-5.0%

Trailing 12 Months

10.7%

FLO Financial Health

Current Ratio

1.43

Debt/Equity

0.62

Debt/Cashflow

0.34

FLO Investor Care

Dividend Yield

3.17%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

0.87

Shares Dilution (1Y)

0.04%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

1.07

Peers (Alternatives to Flowers Foods)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
MDLZ	91.4B	31.5B	0.20%	10.51%	33.65	2.9	9.67%	-36.81%
KHC	46.8B	26.5B	-5.50%	3.91%	19.79	1.77	1.70%	133.50%
HRL	24.6B	12.4B	-13.07%	-18.53%	24.65	1.98	3.48%	5.62%
CAG	19.2B	12.0B	-3.02%	15.18%	33.31	1.63	7.29%	-38.13%
CPB	16.2B	9.2B	4.90%	28.00%	19.88	1.76	10.54%	-11.73%
MID-CAP
FLO	5.8B	4.8B	-2.30%	10.65%	25.51	1.21	10.97%	10.77%
SMPL	3.7B	1.2B	-0.88%	3.46%	30.35	3.15	12.56%	546.17%
SMALL-CAP
HAIN	1.5B	1.9B	-9.38%	-46.93%	33.69	0.83	-1.15%	-63.64%
BGS	1.1B	2.2B	20.74%	-38.65%	-94.61	0.5	5.19%	-116.88%
BYND	1.1B	418.9M	5.51%	-56.16%	-2.93	2.57	-9.85%	-101.06%
BRID	126.4M	263.4M	10.69%	27.76%	2.77	0.48	5.45%	786.05%
LWAY	94.8M	136.7M	8.35%	-13.96%	824.6	0.69	20.26%	-96.88%
FARM	78.3M	496.5M	-9.89%	-37.05%	-2.72	0.16	17.42%	-12.94%
PLAG	37.9M	-	-5.36%	-29.88%	-3.8	0.72	513.44%	-38.56%
RMCF	32.6M	33.1M	-	-31.32%	-9.02	0.98	2.77%	-346.02%

Financials for Flowers Foods

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q3	2022Q2	2021Q4
Revenue	2.1%	4,806	4,707	4,576	4,465	4,331
S&GA Expenses	1.4%	1,851	1,824	1,803	1,773	1,720
R&D Expenses	-	6.00	-	-	-	-
EBITDA	2.8%	470	457	452	453	-
EBITDA Margin	0.7%	0.10*	0.10*	0.10*	0.10*	-
Earnings Before Taxes	4.1%	299	287	283	286	271
EBT Margin	2.0%	0.06*	0.06*	0.06*	0.06*	-
Interest Expenses	0.2%	29.00	29.00	29.00	29.00	32.00
Net Income	4.2%	228	219	217	220	206
Net Income Margin	2.1%	0.05*	0.05*	0.05*	0.05*	-
Free Cahsflow	33.9%	192	143	129	212	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q3	2022Q2	2021Q4
Assets	-0.9%	3,313	3,343	3,341	3,332	3,253
Current Assets	-3.6%	805	835	827	819	746
Cash Equivalents	-4.4%	165	173	163	205	186
Inventory	1.1%	169	167	166	148	135
Net PPE	1.3%	849	838	830	816	799
Goodwill	0%	545	545	545	545	545
Current Liabilities	-5.1%	564	595	570	538	520
LT Debt, Non Current	0.0%	892	892	891	891	891
Shareholder's Equity	0.6%	1,443	1,435	1,447	1,459	1,411
Retained Earnings	0.2%	1,004	1,002	1,008	1,001	962
Additional Paid-In Capital	0.8%	690	684	679	674	678
Accumulated Depreciation	-0.3%	1,447	1,451	1,447	1,423	1,394
Shares Outstanding	-0.1%	212	212	212	-	-

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q3	2022Q2	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	12.5%	361	321	305	371	345
Share Based Compensation	4.5%	26.00	25.00	24.00	23.00	21.00
Cashflow From Investing	34.0%	-151	-228	-227	-214	-191
Cashflow From Financing	-1.7%	-222	-218	-207	-201	-274
Dividend Payments	1.1%	187	184	182	180	176
Buy Backs	0%	35.00	35.00	25.00	19.00	10.00

Risks for FLO

What is the probability of a big loss on FLO?

Probability that Flowers Foods stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

Probability that Flowers Foods stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

Probability that Flowers Foods stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does FLO drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Flowers Foods was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for FLO

Cumulative Returns on FLO

6.6%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

9.2%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

8.3%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

9.1%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for FLO?

FIve years rolling returns for Flowers Foods.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold FLO recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	reduced	-47.69	-690,578	1,075,420	-%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	reduced	-98.6	-123,000	2,000	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	reduced	-11.24	564,056	17,570,100	0.03%
2023-02-24	NATIXIS	new	-	1,178,340	1,178,340	0.01%
2023-02-22	TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY	unchanged	-	130,000	918,000	0.01%
2023-02-21	NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO	reduced	-18.31	-1,770	39,230	-%
2023-02-21	NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC	reduced	-36.19	-176,974	511,026	0.01%
2023-02-21	MACQUARIE GROUP LTD	added	59,422	58,733,000	58,848,000	0.07%
2023-02-17	TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP	reduced	-1.55	4,579,020	35,961,000	0.06%
2023-02-17	Linden Thomas Advisory Services, LLC	new	-	700,767	700,767	0.20%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying FLO calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own FLO

No. of Funds

Flowers Foods News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Flowers Foods

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 14, 2023	price t rowe associates inc /md/	7.2%	15,175,507	SC 13G/A
Jan 25, 2023	blackrock inc.	9.0%	19,070,133	SC 13G
Jan 10, 2023	vanguard group inc	10.32%	21,799,194	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2022	price t rowe associates inc /md/	9.9%	21,132,685	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2022	price t rowe associates inc /md/	10.0%	21,348,890	SC 13G/A
Feb 03, 2022	blackrock inc.	8.8%	18,676,554	SC 13G/A
Feb 16, 2021	price t rowe associates inc /md/	9.0%	19,206,675	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2021	vanguard group inc	8.59%	18,177,472	SC 13G/A
Jan 29, 2021	blackrock inc.	8.1%	17,205,892	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2020	price t rowe associates inc /md/	7.6%	16,178,249	SC 13G/A

FLO Fair Value

Flowers Foods fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Flowers Foods for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	10.04 -63.46%	14.26 -48.11%	16.88 -38.57%	25.19 -8.33%	31.19 13.50%
Current Inflation	9.55 -65.25%	12.52 -54.44%	16.03 -41.67%	22.14 -19.43%	25.87 -5.86%
Very High Inflation	8.57 -68.81%	11.78 -57.13%	12.68 -53.86%	18.15 -33.95%	22.01 -19.91%

Historical Flowers Foods Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Flowers Foods

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 10, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 10, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 07, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Mar 01, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 24, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 24, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 24, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 24, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 24, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 24, 2023	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for FLO

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-09	DEESE GEORGE E	gifted	-	-	-3,500	-
2023-03-01	DEESE GEORGE E	gifted	-	-	12,000	-
2023-03-01	DEESE GEORGE E	gifted	-	-	-12,000	-
2023-02-28	COURTNEY H MARK	gifted	-	-	-1,960	chief brand officer
2023-02-27	DEESE GEORGE E	gifted	-	-	-1,750	-
2023-02-27	Cox Cindy	acquired	-	-	10,590	chief human resources officer
2023-02-22	BENTON ROBERT L JR	sold (taxes)	-285,691	28.41	-10,056	evp of network optimization
2023-02-22	CHAFFIN JOHN MARK	acquired	-	-	24,952	chief information officer
2023-02-22	ROACH DAVID M	acquired	-	-	22,249	chief strategic projects offic
2023-02-22	KINSEY R STEVE	sold (taxes)	-819,060	28.41	-28,830	chief financial officer & cao

About Flowers Foods

Amos R. McMullian

www.flowersfoods.com

8900

Flowers Foods, Inc. produces and markets packaged bakery products in the United States. It offers fresh breads, buns, rolls, snack cakes, and tortillas, as well as frozen breads and rolls under the Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Wonder, Canyon Bakehouse, Mrs. Freshley's, and Tastykake brand names. The company distributes its products through a direct-store-delivery distribution and a warehouse delivery system, as well as operates 46 bakeries comprising 44 owned and two leased. Its customers include mass merchandisers, supermarkets and other retailers, convenience stores, national and regional restaurants, quick-serve chains, retail in-store bakeries, foodservice distributors, food wholesalers, institutions, dollar stores, and vending companies. The company was formerly known as Flowers Industries and changed its name to Flowers Foods, Inc. in 2001. Flowers Foods, Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Thomasville, Georgia.

FLO Income Statement

2022-12-31

Consolidated Statements of Income - USD ($) shares in Thousands, $ in Thousands	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Jan. 01, 2022	Jan. 02, 2021
Income Statement [Abstract]
Sales	$ 4,805,822	$ 4,330,767	$ 4,387,991
Materials, supplies, labor and other production costs (exclusive of depreciation and amortization shown separately below)	2,501,995	2,175,247	2,196,142
Selling, distribution and administrative expenses	1,850,594	1,719,797	1,693,387
Depreciation and amortization	141,957	136,559	141,384
Restructuring and related impairment charges			35,483
FASTER Act and loss on inferior ingredients	236	944	107
Plant closure costs and impairment of assets	7,825
Multi-employer pension plan withdrawal costs		3,300
Income from operations	303,215	294,920	321,488
Interest expense	28,921	31,534	38,790
Interest income	(23,644)	(23,533)	(26,696)
Loss on extinguishment of debt		16,149
Pension plan settlement and curtailment loss		403	108,757
Other components of net periodic pension and postretirement benefits credit	773	405	74
Income before income taxes	298,711	270,772	200,711
Income tax expense	70,317	64,585	48,393
Net income	$ 228,394	$ 206,187	$ 152,318
Basic:
Net income per common share	$ 1.08	$ 0.97	$ 0.72
Weighted average shares outstanding	211,895	211,840	211,782
Diluted:
Net income per common share	$ 1.07	$ 0.97	$ 0.72
Weighted average shares outstanding	213,227	213,033	212,345
Cash dividends paid per common share	$ 0.8700	$ 0.8300	$ 0.7900

FLO Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Dec. 31, 2022	Jan. 01, 2022
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 165,134	$ 185,871
Accounts and notes receivable, net of allowances of $18,754 and $15,398, respectively	349,477	305,196
Inventories:
Raw materials	71,058	54,458
Packaging materials	28,202	24,580
Finished goods	69,437	55,942
Inventories, net	168,697	134,980
Spare parts and supplies	73,614	68,479
Other	48,018	51,592
Total current assets	804,940	746,118
Property, plant and equipment:
Land	111,792	112,729
Buildings	553,606	550,947
Machinery and equipment	1,308,970	1,256,821
Furniture, fixtures and transportation equipment	184,722	184,528
Construction in progress	137,631	87,367
Property, plant and equipment, gross	2,296,721	2,192,392
Less: accumulated depreciation	(1,447,396)	(1,393,664)
Property, plant and equipment, net	849,325	798,728
Financing lease right-of-use assets	1,778	3,476
Operating lease right-of-use assets	273,436	289,013
Notes receivable from independent distributor partners	136,882	154,310
Assets held for sale	12,493	11,369
Other assets	24,515	9,623
Goodwill	545,244	545,244
Other intangible assets, net	664,381	695,432
Total assets	3,312,994	3,253,313
Current liabilities:
Current maturities of financing leases	1,779	1,584
Current maturities of operating leases	43,990	46,390
Accounts payable	343,380	268,500
Other accrued liabilities	175,276	203,443
Total current liabilities	564,425	519,917
Long-term debt and right-of-use lease liabilities:
Noncurrent long-term debt	891,842	890,609
Noncurrent financing lease obligations	116	1,910
Noncurrent operating lease obligations	236,977	250,638
Total long-term debt and right-of-use lease liabilities	1,128,935	1,143,157
Other liabilities:
Post-retirement/post-employment obligations	5,814	7,249
Deferred taxes	134,832	133,757
Other long-term liabilities	35,698	37,959
Total other long-term liabilities	176,344	178,965
Commitments and contingencies
Stockholders’ equity:
Common stock — $.01 stated par value and $.001 current par value; 500,000,000 authorized shares; 228,729,585 issued shares	199	199
Treasury stock - 17,595,619 and 17,334,804 shares, respectively	(252,613)	(232,304)
Capital in excess of par value	689,959	678,414
Retained earnings	1,004,271	962,378
Accumulated other comprehensive income	1,474	2,587
Total stockholders’ equity	1,443,290	1,411,274
Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity	3,312,994	3,253,313
Series A Preferred Stock
Stockholders’ equity:
Preferred Stock, value
Series B Preferred Stock
Stockholders’ equity:
Preferred Stock, value