Warrior Met Coal Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD34.54+1.18

Delayed

3.54%

HCC Alerts

Big fall in Revenue (Y/Y)

HCC Stock Price

HCC RSI Chart

HCC Valuation

Market Cap

1.8B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

2.78

Price/Sales (Trailing)

1.03

EV/EBITDA

1.36

Price/Free Cashflow

2.12

HCC Price/Sales (Trailing)

HCC Profitability

EBT Margin

45.04%

Return on Equity

44.3%

Return on Assets

31.62%

Free Cashflow Yield

47.19%

HCC Fundamentals

HCC Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

1.7B

Revenue Y/Y

-17.04%

Revenue Q/Q

-11.64%

HCC Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

641.3M

Earnings Y/Y

-28.04%

Earnings Q/Q

1.27%

Price Action

52 Week Range

25.4242.95

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

1.7%

Last 30 days

-11.4%

Last 90 days

-4.7%

Trailing 12 Months

-5.5%

HCC Financial Health

Current Ratio

7.66

Debt/Equity

0.21

Debt/Cashflow

2.77

HCC Investor Care

Dividend Yield

4.46%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

1.54

Shares Dilution (1Y)

0.42%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

12.4

Peers (Alternatives to Warrior Met Coal)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
SCCO	55.1B	10.0B	-3.35%	-3.05%	20.8	5.48	-8.10%	-22.37%
FCX	54.4B	22.8B	-9.05%	-25.08%	12.14	2.39	-0.28%	-16.51%
NUE	38.5B	41.5B	-9.07%	-2.40%	5.06	0.93	13.78%	11.42%
NEM	38.5B	11.9B	9.77%	-37.43%	-89.74	3.23	-2.51%	-136.79%
CTRA	18.8B	9.5B	1.81%	-6.31%	4.61	1.97	159.24%	251.04%
STLD	18.7B	22.3B	-10.00%	23.37%	4.83	0.84	20.92%	19.49%
MID-CAP
CLF	8.9B	23.0B	-12.59%	-46.65%	6.5	0.39	37.87%	-4.59%
AA	7.1B	12.5B	-18.17%	-57.57%	-57.66	0.57	2.46%	-128.67%
HL	3.3B	718.9M	14.98%	-13.22%	-87.75	4.56	-10.97%	-206.42%
ARNC	2.6B	9.0B	15.21%	4.44%	-14.53	0.3	19.42%	54.16%
SMALL-CAP
NG	2.0B	-	6.96%	-22.61%	-37.48	-	-	-31.59%
HCC	1.8B	1.7B	-11.37%	-5.50%	2.78	1.03	64.15%	325.04%
CMP	1.2B	1.3B	-20.49%	-50.70%	-77.61	0.98	8.30%	92.41%
CDE	975.8M	785.6M	5.77%	-31.11%	-12.49	1.24	-5.67%	-149.37%
METC	378.9M	565.7M	-14.03%	-44.67%	3.26	0.67	99.61%	191.86%

Financials for Warrior Met Coal

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	-3.9%	1,739	1,810	1,622	1,224	1,059
S&GA Expenses	5.2%	49.00	46.00	43.00	42.00	36.00
EBITDA	5.4%	926	879	548	378	-
EBITDA Margin	-1.7%	0.53*	0.54*	0.45*	0.36*	-
Earnings Before Taxes	-5.5%	783	829	754	377	200
EBT Margin	-1.7%	0.45*	0.46*	0.46*	0.31*	-
Interest Expenses	-23.5%	28.00	36.00	-	-	-
Net Income	-5.7%	641	680	620	318	151
Net Income Margin	-1.9%	0.37*	0.38*	0.38*	0.26*	-
Free Cahsflow	2.5%	842	822	637	318	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	4.8%	2,028	1,935	1,899	1,643	1,464
Current Assets	2.8%	1,173	1,142	1,114	840	627
Cash Equivalents	11.2%	829	746	645	434	396
Inventory	7.1%	154	144	140	111	60.00
Liabilities	-1.2%	581	588	608	625	592
Current Liabilities	-6.0%	153	163	144	156	122
Long Term Debt	-10.7%	304	340	340	340	-
LT Debt, Non Current	-0.4%	303	304	340	340	340
Shareholder's Equity	7.4%	1,448	1,348	1,291	1,019	872
Retained Earnings	8.5%	1,228	1,131	1,077	809	666
Additional Paid-In Capital	1.3%	270	267	264	260	256
Shares Outstanding	0%	52.00	52.00	52.00	52.00	51.00

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	2.5%	842	822	637	376	352
Share Based Compensation	18.6%	18.00	15.00	14.00	15.00	9.00
Cashflow From Investing	-41.4%	-255	-180	-135	-67.24	-71.15
Cashflow From Financing	6.6%	-153	-163	-124	-97.12	-96.47
Dividend Payments	0.7%	80.00	79.00	37.00	11.00	10.00
Buy Backs	-	0.00	-	-	-	-

Risks for HCC

What is the probability of a big loss on HCC?

93.5%

Probability that Warrior Met Coal stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

54.6%

Probability that Warrior Met Coal stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

20%

Probability that Warrior Met Coal stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does HCC drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Warrior Met Coal was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for HCC

Cumulative Returns on HCC

14.1%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

47.2%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for HCC?

FIve years rolling returns for Warrior Met Coal.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold HCC recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	added	45.82	1,204,020	2,755,020	-%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	unchanged	-	-	-	-%
2023-03-01	Lakewood Asset Management LLC	new	-	200,000	200,000	0.16%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	reduced	-1.3	113,150	671,150	-%
2023-02-22	TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY	unchanged	-	96,000	538,000	0.01%
2023-02-21	Triasima Portfolio Management inc.	sold off	-100	-106,000	-	-%
2023-02-21	MACQUARIE GROUP LTD	sold off	-	-38,000	-	-%
2023-02-21	Empowered Funds, LLC	new	-	4,385,560	4,385,560	0.29%
2023-02-17	TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP	new	-	854,569	854,569	-%
2023-02-16	DZ BANK AG Deutsche Zentral Genossenschafts Bank, Frankfurt am Main	new	-	12,790,500	12,790,500	0.02%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying HCC calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own HCC

No. of Funds

HCC Alerts

Big fall in Revenue (Y/Y)

Warrior Met Coal News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Warrior Met Coal

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	13.76%	7,106,826	SC 13G/A
Jan 24, 2023	blackrock inc.	14.4%	7,413,785	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2022	state street corp	3.49%	1,794,153	SC 13G/A
Jan 27, 2022	blackrock inc.	14.2%	7,290,394	SC 13G/A
Jan 26, 2022	blackrock inc.	14.2%	7,290,394	SC 13G/A
Sep 10, 2021	state street corp	3.42%	1,757,351	SC 13G/A
Apr 12, 2021	state street corp	-	0	SC 13G/A
Feb 11, 2021	renaissance technologies llc	3.49%	1,786,379	SC 13G/A
Feb 11, 2021	state street corp	7.28%	3,725,752	SC 13G
Feb 10, 2021	vanguard group inc	10.21%	5,224,538	SC 13G/A

HCC Fair Value

Warrior Met Coal fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Warrior Met Coal for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	100.08 189.75%	117.87 241.26%	169.00 389.29%	293.62 750.09%	487.93 1312.65%
Current Inflation	95.06 175.22%	111.40 222.52%	154.17 346.35%	260.96 655.53%	427.33 1137.20%
Very High Inflation	88.57 156.43%	103.09 198.47%	136.16 294.21%	222.43 543.98%	356.65 932.57%

Historical Warrior Met Coal Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Warrior Met Coal

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 13, 2023	ARS	ARS
Mar 13, 2023	DEF 14A	DEF 14A
Mar 13, 2023	DEFA14A	DEFA14A
Feb 21, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 21, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 21, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 21, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 21, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 21, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 17, 2023	8-K	Current Report

Latest Insider Trading transactions for HCC

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-02-17	SCHELLER WALTER J	acquired	-	-	6,879	chief executive officer
2023-02-17	SCHELLER WALTER J	sold (taxes)	-127,105	41.66	-3,051	chief executive officer
2023-02-17	Chopin Brian M	acquired	-	-	597	chief accounting officer
2023-02-17	Lussier Charles	acquired	-	-	1,560	chief commercial officer
2023-02-17	Richardson Jack K.	sold (taxes)	-55,991	41.66	-1,344	chief operating officer
2023-02-17	Chopin Brian M	sold (taxes)	-9,290	41.66	-223	chief accounting officer
2023-02-17	Richardson Jack K.	acquired	-	-	3,029	chief operating officer
2023-02-17	Gant Kelli K.	acquired	-	-	2,096	chief administrative officer
2023-02-17	Boyles Dale W	sold (taxes)	-48,242	41.66	-1,158	chief financial officer
2023-02-17	Gant Kelli K.	sold (taxes)	-38,743	41.66	-930	chief administrative officer

About Warrior Met Coal

Walter J. Scheller

www.warriormetcoal.com

700

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. It operates two underground mines located in Alabama. The company sells its metallurgical coal to a customer base of blast furnace steel producers located primarily in Europe, South America, and Asia. It also sells natural gas, which is extracted as a byproduct from coal production. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.

HCC Income Statement

2022-12-31

STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS - USD ($) shares in Thousands, $ in Thousands	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
Revenues:
Total revenues	$ 1,738,738	$ 1,059,216	$ 782,738
Costs and expenses:
Cost of sales (exclusive of items shown separately below)	710,605	554,282	625,170
Cost of other revenues (exclusive of items shown separately below)	27,047	28,899	33,736
Depreciation and depletion	115,279	141,418	118,092
Selling, general and administrative	48,791	35,593	32,879
Business interruption	23,455	21,372	0
Idle mine	12,137	33,899	0
Total costs and expenses	937,314	815,463	809,877
Operating income (loss)	801,424	243,753	(27,139)
Interest expense, net	(18,995)	(35,389)	(32,310)
Loss on early extinguishment of debt	0	(9,678)	0
Other income	675	1,291	3,544
Income (loss) before income taxes	783,104	199,977	(55,905)
Income tax expense (benefit)	141,806	49,096	(20,144)
Net income (loss)	$ 641,298	$ 150,881	$ (35,761)
Basic and diluted net income (loss) per share:
Net income (loss) per share—basic (in dollars per share)	$ 12.42	$ 2.94	$ (0.70)
Net income (loss) per share—diluted (in dollars per share)	$ 12.40	$ 2.93	$ (0.70)
Weighted average number of shares outstanding—basic (in shares)	51,622	51,382	51,168
Weighted average number of shares outstanding— diluted (in shares)	51,715	51,445	51,168
Dividends per share (in dollars per share)	$ 1.54	$ 0.20	$ 0.20
Sales
Revenues:
Total revenues	$ 1,707,579	$ 1,028,283	$ 761,871
Other revenues
Revenues:
Total revenues	$ 31,159	$ 30,933	$ 20,867

HCC Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

BALANCE SHEETS - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 829,480	$ 395,839
Short-term investments	8,608	8,505
Trade accounts receivable	151,826	122,150
Other receivables	3,637	7,991
Inventories, net	154,039	59,619
Prepaid expenses and other	25,519	33,097
Total current assets	1,173,109	627,201
Mineral interests, net	88,636	93,180
Property, plant and equipment, net	738,947	603,412
Deferred income taxes	7,572	125,276
Other long-term assets	19,831	15,142
Total assets	2,028,095	1,464,211
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable	39,026	33,829
Accrued expenses	77,435	54,847
Asset retirement obligations	3,900	5,141
Short-term financing lease obligations	24,089	23,622
Other current liabilities	8,674	4,689
Total current liabilities	153,124	122,128
Long-term debt	302,588	339,806
Asset retirement obligations	64,581	65,536
Black lung obligations	27,407	34,482
Financing lease obligations	9,002	28,434
Deferred income taxes	23,378	0
Other long-term liabilities	500	1,842
Total liabilities	580,580	592,228
Stockholders’ Equity:
Common stock, $0.01 par value per share (Authorized -140,000,000 shares, 53,875,409 issued and 51,653,568 outstanding as of December 31, 2022 and 53,659,643 issued and 51,437,802 outstanding as of December 31, 2021)	539	537
Preferred stock, $0.01 par value per share (10,000,000 shares authorized, no shares issued and outstanding)	0	0
Treasury stock, at cost (2,221,841 shares as of December 31, 2022, and December 31, 2021)	(50,576)	(50,576)
Additional paid in capital	269,956	256,059
Retained earnings	1,227,596	665,963
Total stockholders’ equity	1,447,515	871,983
Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity	$ 2,028,095	$ 1,464,211