Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD10.81+0.03

Market Closed

0.28%

IVR Alerts

Big jump in Revenue (Y/Y)
Big jump in Earnings (Y/Y)

IVR Stock Price

IVR RSI Chart

IVR Valuation

Market Cap

418.5M

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

-1.04

Price/Sales (Trailing)

2.15

Price/Free Cashflow

2.13

IVR Price/Sales (Trailing)

IVR Profitability

Return on Equity

-50.11%

Return on Assets

-7.9%

Free Cashflow Yield

46.86%

IVR Fundamentals

IVR Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

194.5M

Revenue Y/Y

35.47%

Revenue Q/Q

16.75%

IVR Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

-402.9M

Earnings Y/Y

156.4%

Earnings Q/Q

135.95%

Price Action

52 Week Range

8.5620.44

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-8.9%

Last 30 days

-20.3%

Last 90 days

-13.0%

Trailing 12 Months

-40.3%

IVR Financial Health

IVR Investor Care

Dividend Yield

30.66%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

3.6

Shares Dilution (1Y)

17.35%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

-12.21

Peers (Alternatives to Invesco Mortgage Capital)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
AXP	121.4B	43.0B	-11.87%	-8.27%	16.16	2.83	24.07%	-6.77%
GS	106.0B	39.7B	-16.53%	-3.22%	9.41	2.67	-24.93%	-47.95%
SCHW	102.5B	20.8B	-25.95%	-27.75%	14.26	4.94	12.11%	22.68%
BLK	97.9B	17.9B	-14.27%	-10.09%	18.9	5.48	-7.75%	-12.25%
MID-CAP
NLY	8.8B	2.8B	-14.82%	-26.28%	5.08	3.16	40.13%	-27.81%
AGNC	5.7B	1.6B	-13.55%	-16.26%	-4.78	3.57	16.83%	-258.88%
STWD	5.2B	1.5B	-14.44%	-21.11%	6	3.57	25.18%	94.64%
NRZ	4.3B	4.7B	14.03%	22.72%	4.38	0.91	30.51%	22.06%
NYMT	3.2B	258.4M	203.99%	176.76%	-10.84	12.52	24.91%	-254.56%
BXMT	3.0B	1.3B	-21.12%	-38.43%	12.13	2.25	56.66%	-40.69%
HASI	2.4B	239.7M	-27.22%	-40.85%	57.1	9.89	12.46%	-67.21%
SMALL-CAP
PMT	1.1B	909.6M	-17.87%	-18.56%	-14.65	1.18	52.78%	-228.90%
MFA	918.3M	482.4M	-16.25%	-37.64%	-3.97	1.9	33.15%	-170.42%
BRMK	581.9M	106.1M	3.71%	-40.45%	-5	5.49	-12.00%	-241.10%
IVR	418.5M	194.5M	-20.29%	-40.32%	-1.04	2.15	14.96%	-347.69%

Financials for Invesco Mortgage Capital

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	8.5%	195	179	173	171	169
Operating Expenses	-7.8%	25.00	27.00	29.00	30.00	29.00
S&GA Expenses	-0.2%	8.00	8.00	9.00	8.00	8.00
Interest Expenses	-12.4%	143	163	178	183	180
Net Income	20.1%	-402	-504	-344	-309	-90.00
Net Income Margin	26.3%	-2.07*	-2.81*	-2.00*	-1.80*	-
Free Cahsflow	16.3%	196	169	160	158	-

Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	8.8%	5,097	4,686	4,304	7,083	8,444
Cash Equivalents	7.3%	176	164	202	252	357
Liabilities	9.4%	4,293	3,924	3,345	5,955	7,042
Shareholder's Equity	5.6%	804	761	959	1,128	1,402
Retained Earnings	0.2%	-3,407	-3,412	-3,295	-3,149	-2,882
Additional Paid-In Capital	1.1%	3,902	3,858	3,820	3,817	3,819
Shares Outstanding	9.5%	39.00	35.00	33.00	33.00	33.00

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	16.3%	196	169	160	158	152
Cashflow From Investing	-35.6%	2,424	3,764	4,307	2,177	121
Cashflow From Financing	29.8%	-2,918	-4,154	-4,623	-2,416	-88.57
Buy Backs	-50.0%	115	230	58.00	140	-

Risks for IVR

What is the probability of a big loss on IVR?

58.9%

Probability that Invesco Mortgage Capital stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

50.8%

Probability that Invesco Mortgage Capital stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

46.1%

Probability that Invesco Mortgage Capital stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does IVR drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Invesco Mortgage Capital was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for IVR

Cumulative Returns on IVR

-13.9%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

-17.0%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

-30.4%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

-42.7%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for IVR?

FIve years rolling returns for Invesco Mortgage Capital.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold IVR recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	unchanged	-	-	-	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	unchanged	-	20,517	163,517	-%
2023-02-22	TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY	added	88.92	69,000	129,000	-%
2023-02-21	MACQUARIE GROUP LTD	sold off	-	-3,000	-	-%
2023-02-16	HARBOUR INVESTMENTS, INC.	reduced	-18.68	-1,398	3,602	-%
2023-02-15	JANE STREET GROUP, LLC	sold off	-100	-111,000	-	-%
2023-02-15	Wealthstar Advisors, LLC	reduced	-0.74	55,934	570,934	0.26%
2023-02-15	State of Tennessee, Treasury Department	reduced	-18.94	-17,000	230,000	-%
2023-02-15	Metropolitan Life Insurance Co/NY	unchanged	-	3,193	25,193	-%
2023-02-15	ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P.	added	15.61	182,184	742,184	-%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying IVR calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own IVR

No. of Funds

Invesco Mortgage Capital News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Invesco Mortgage Capital

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	11.02%	3,895,568	SC 13G/A
Jan 26, 2023	blackrock inc.	17.7%	6,253,156	SC 13G/A
Jan 20, 2023	blackrock inc.	17.7%	6,253,156	SC 13G
Feb 14, 2022	susquehanna securities, llc	3.6%	11,298,898	SC 13G/A
Jan 27, 2022	blackrock inc.	16.6%	51,816,914	SC 13G/A
Jan 26, 2022	blackrock inc.	16.6%	51,816,914	SC 13G/A
Apr 12, 2021	vanguard group inc	10.20%	23,538,155	SC 13G/A
Feb 16, 2021	susquehanna securities, llc	6.6%	13,353,482	SC 13G
Feb 10, 2021	vanguard group inc	9.46%	18,514,790	SC 13G/A
Jan 25, 2021	blackrock inc.	18.1%	32,876,461	SC 13G

IVR Fair Value

Invesco Mortgage Capital fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Invesco Mortgage Capital for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	3.54 -67.25%	4.26 -60.59%	7.44 -31.17%	10.48 -3.05%	12.79 18.32%
Current Inflation	3.45 -68.09%	4.12 -61.89%	6.89 -36.26%	9.52 -11.93%	11.51 6.48%
Very High Inflation	3.33 -69.20%	3.94 -63.55%	6.22 -42.46%	8.37 -22.57%	9.98 -7.68%

Historical Invesco Mortgage Capital Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Invesco Mortgage Capital

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 21, 2023	ARS	ARS
Mar 21, 2023	DEF 14A	DEF 14A
Mar 21, 2023	DEFA14A	DEFA14A
Mar 17, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 07, 2023	3	Insider Trading
Feb 23, 2023	424B5	Prospectus Filed
Feb 23, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Feb 23, 2023	POS AM	POS AM
Feb 22, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Feb 21, 2023	10-K	Annual Report

Latest Insider Trading transactions for IVR

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2022-12-09	LIENTZ JAMES R JR	sold	-20,961	12.86	-1,630	-
2022-05-15	LIENTZ JAMES R JR	acquired	-	-	54,285	-
2022-05-15	Handlon Carolyn B	acquired	-	-	54,285	-
2022-05-15	LOCKHART DENNIS P	acquired	-	-	54,285	-
2022-05-15	LIU DON H	acquired	-	-	54,285	-
2022-05-15	HARDIN EDWARD J	acquired	-	-	54,285	-
2022-05-15	Day John	acquired	-	-	54,285	-
2022-05-10	Anzalone John	bought	24,750	1.65	15,000	ceo
2022-05-09	Collins Kevin M	bought	11,987	1.67	7,178	president
2022-05-09	Phegley Richard Lee Jr.	bought	20,193	1.67	12,092	chief financial officer

About Invesco Mortgage Capital

John M. Anzalone

www.invescomortgagecapital.com

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily focuses on investing in, financing, and managing mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets. It invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) that are guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation; RMBS and CMBS that are not issued or guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation; credit risk transfer securities that are unsecured obligations issued by government-sponsored enterprises; residential and commercial mortgage loans; and other real estate-related financing arrangements. Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. has elected to be taxed as a REIT and would be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

IVR Income Statement

2022-12-31

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS - USD ($)
$ in Thousands

12 Months Ended

Dec. 31, 2022

Dec. 31, 2021

Dec. 31, 2020

Interest income

Mortgage-backed and other securities

$ 192,566

$ 167,056

$ 277,400

Commercial and other loans

1,947

2,146

2,766

Total interest income

194,513

169,202

280,166

Interest expense

Repurchase agreements

^[1]

51,560

(11,290)

73,607

Secured loans

8,655

Total interest expense

51,560

(11,290)

82,262

Net interest income

142,953

180,492

197,904

Other income (loss)

Gain (loss) on investments, net

(1,079,339)

(366,509)

(961,938)

(Increase) decrease in provision for credit losses

1,768

(1,768)

Equity in earnings (losses) of unconsolidated ventures

(407)

870

1,163

Gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net

559,007

122,611

(851,050)

Realized and unrealized credit derivative income (loss), net

(35,312)

Net gain (loss) on extinguishment of debt

14,742

Other investment income (loss), net

186

2,137

Total other income (loss)

(520,553)

(241,259)

(1,832,026)

Expenses

Management fee — related party

16,906

21,080

29,367

General and administrative

8,418

8,153

10,863

Total expenses

25,324

29,233

40,230

Net income (loss)

(402,924)

(90,000)

(1,674,352)

Dividends to preferred stockholders

(28,218)

(37,795)

(44,426)

Gain on repurchase and retirement of preferred stock

14,179

Issuance and redemption costs of redeemed preferred stock

4,682

Net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders

$ (416,963)

$ (132,477)

$ (1,718,778)

Net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders

Basic (in usd per share)

$ (12.21)

$ (4.82)

$ (98.93)

Diluted (in usd per share)

$ (12.21)

$ (4.82)

$ (98.93)

Weighted average number of shares of common stock:

Basic (in shares)

34,160,080

27,513,223

17,373,039

Diluted (in shares)

34,160,080

27,513,223

17,373,039

[1]

Negative interest expense on repurchase agreements in 2021 is due to amortization of net deferred gains on de-designated interest rate swaps that exceeds current period interest expense on repurchase agreements. For further information on amortization of amounts classified in accumulated other comprehensive income before we discontinued hedge accounting, see Note 8 - “Derivatives and Hedging Activities” and Note 12 - “Stockholders' Equity”

IVR Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
ASSETS
Mortgage-backed securities, at fair value (including pledged securities of $4,439,583 and $7,326,175, respectively)	$ 4,791,893	$ 7,804,259
Cash and cash equivalents	175,535	357,134
Restricted cash	103,246	219,918
Due from counterparties	1,584	7,985
Investment related receivable	22,744	16,766
Derivative assets, at fair value	662	270
Other assets	1,731	37,509
Total assets	5,097,395	8,443,841
Liabilities:
Repurchase agreements	4,234,823	6,987,834
Derivative liabilities, at fair value	2,079	14,356
Dividends payable	25,162	29,689
Accrued interest payable	20,546	1,171
Collateral held payable	4,892	280
Accounts payable and accrued expenses	1,365	1,887
Due to affiliate	4,453	6,489
Total liabilities	4,293,320	7,041,706
Commitments and contingencies
Stockholders' equity:
Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share; 67,000,000 and 450,000,000 shares authorized, respectively; 38,710,916 and 32,987,478 shares issued and outstanding, respectively	387	330
Additional paid in capital	3,901,562	3,819,375
Accumulated other comprehensive income	10,761	37,286
Retained earnings (distributions in excess of earnings)	(3,407,342)	(2,882,824)
Total stockholders’ equity	804,075	1,402,135
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity	5,097,395	8,443,841
Series B Preferred Stock
Stockholders' equity:
Preferred Stock, par value $0.01 per share; 50,000,000 shares authorized:	109,679	149,860
Series C Preferred Stock
Stockholders' equity:
Preferred Stock, par value $0.01 per share; 50,000,000 shares authorized:	$ 189,028	$ 278,108