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Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc Stock Research

IVR

10.81USD+0.03(+0.28%)Market Closed

Market Summary

USD10.81+0.03
Market Closed
0.28%

IVR Alerts

IVR Stock Price

IVR RSI Chart

IVR Valuation

Market Cap

418.5M

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

-1.04

Price/Sales (Trailing)

2.15

Price/Free Cashflow

2.13

IVR Price/Sales (Trailing)

IVR Profitability

Return on Equity

-50.11%

Return on Assets

-7.9%

Free Cashflow Yield

46.86%

IVR Fundamentals

IVR Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

194.5M

Revenue Y/Y

35.47%

Revenue Q/Q

16.75%

IVR Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

-402.9M

Earnings Y/Y

156.4%

Earnings Q/Q

135.95%

Price Action

52 Week Range

8.5620.44
(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-8.9%

Last 30 days

-20.3%

Last 90 days

-13.0%

Trailing 12 Months

-40.3%

IVR Financial Health

IVR Investor Care

Dividend Yield

30.66%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

3.6

Shares Dilution (1Y)

17.35%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

-12.21

Peers (Alternatives to Invesco Mortgage Capital)

View All Peers In Detail
NameMkt Capsorted ascendingRevenuePrice %, 1MReturns, 1YP/EP/SRev 1-YrInc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
121.4B
43.0B
-11.87% -8.27%
16.16
2.83
24.07% -6.77%
106.0B
39.7B
-16.53% -3.22%
9.41
2.67
-24.93% -47.95%
102.5B
20.8B
-25.95% -27.75%
14.26
4.94
12.11% 22.68%
97.9B
17.9B
-14.27% -10.09%
18.9
5.48
-7.75% -12.25%
MID-CAP
8.8B
2.8B
-14.82% -26.28%
5.08
3.16
40.13% -27.81%
5.7B
1.6B
-13.55% -16.26%
-4.78
3.57
16.83% -258.88%
5.2B
1.5B
-14.44% -21.11%
6
3.57
25.18% 94.64%
4.3B
4.7B
14.03% 22.72%
4.38
0.91
30.51% 22.06%
3.2B
258.4M
203.99% 176.76%
-10.84
12.52
24.91% -254.56%
3.0B
1.3B
-21.12% -38.43%
12.13
2.25
56.66% -40.69%
2.4B
239.7M
-27.22% -40.85%
57.1
9.89
12.46% -67.21%
SMALL-CAP
1.1B
909.6M
-17.87% -18.56%
-14.65
1.18
52.78% -228.90%
918.3M
482.4M
-16.25% -37.64%
-3.97
1.9
33.15% -170.42%
581.9M
106.1M
3.71% -40.45%
-5
5.49
-12.00% -241.10%
418.5M
194.5M
-20.29% -40.32%
-1.04
2.15
14.96% -347.69%

Financials for Invesco Mortgage Capital

Income Statement (Last 12 Months)
(In Millions)
* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Revenue8.5%195179173171169
Operating Expenses-7.8%25.0027.0029.0030.0029.00
  S&GA Expenses-0.2%8.008.009.008.008.00
Interest Expenses-12.4%143163178183180
Net Income20.1%-402-504-344-309-90.00
Net Income Margin26.3%-2.07*-2.81*-2.00*-1.80*-
Free Cahsflow16.3%196169160158-
Balance Sheet
(In Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Assets8.8%5,0974,6864,3047,0838,444
    Cash Equivalents7.3%176164202252357
Liabilities9.4%4,2933,9243,3455,9557,042
Shareholder's Equity5.6%8047619591,1281,402
  Retained Earnings0.2%-3,407-3,412-3,295-3,149-2,882
  Additional Paid-In Capital1.1%3,9023,8583,8203,8173,819
Shares Outstanding9.5%39.0035.0033.0033.0033.00
Cashflow (Last 12 Months)
(In Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Cashflow From Operations16.3%196169160158152
Cashflow From Investing-35.6%2,4243,7644,3072,177121
Cashflow From Financing29.8%-2,918-4,154-4,623-2,416-88.57
  Buy Backs-50.0%11523058.00140-

Risks for IVR

What is the probability of a big loss on IVR?

58.9%


Probability that Invesco Mortgage Capital stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

50.8%


Probability that Invesco Mortgage Capital stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

46.1%


Probability that Invesco Mortgage Capital stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.
*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does IVR drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Invesco Mortgage Capital was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for IVR

Cumulative Returns on IVR

-13.9%


10-Year Cumulative Returns

-17.0%


7-Year Cumulative Returns

-30.4%


5-Year Cumulative Returns

-42.7%


3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for IVR?

FIve years rolling returns for Invesco Mortgage Capital.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold IVR recently?

View All Details
Datesorted ascendingFund NameType% Chg$ Change$ Held% Portfolio
2023-03-06
Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.
unchanged
-
-
-
-%
2023-02-28
Voya Investment Management LLC
unchanged
-
20,517
163,517
-%
2023-02-22
TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY
added
88.92
69,000
129,000
-%
2023-02-21
MACQUARIE GROUP LTD
sold off
-
-3,000
-
-%
2023-02-16
HARBOUR INVESTMENTS, INC.
reduced
-18.68
-1,398
3,602
-%
2023-02-15
JANE STREET GROUP, LLC
sold off
-100
-111,000
-
-%
2023-02-15
Wealthstar Advisors, LLC
reduced
-0.74
55,934
570,934
0.26%
2023-02-15
State of Tennessee, Treasury Department
reduced
-18.94
-17,000
230,000
-%
2023-02-15
Metropolitan Life Insurance Co/NY
unchanged
-
3,193
25,193
-%
2023-02-15
ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN L.P.
added
15.61
182,184
742,184
-%

1–10 of 41

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying IVR calls or puts?
Calls
Puts
Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?
Net Call Options
No. of funds that own IVR
No. of Funds

Invesco Mortgage Capital News

MarketWatch

MFA Financial Inc. stock falls Wednesday, underperforms market.

MarketWatch,
21 hours ago

Seeking Alpha

DirectorsTalk Interviews

Jacksonville Journal-Courier

Seattle PI

Seeking Alpha

16% Dividend Yield Slash Incoming.

Seeking Alpha,
35 days ago

Schedule 13G FIlings of Invesco Mortgage Capital

Date FiledName of FilerPercent of ClassNo. of SharesForm Type
Feb 09, 2023
vanguard group inc
11.02%
3,895,568
SC 13G/A
Jan 26, 2023
blackrock inc.
17.7%
6,253,156
SC 13G/A
Jan 20, 2023
blackrock inc.
17.7%
6,253,156
SC 13G
Feb 14, 2022
susquehanna securities, llc
3.6%
11,298,898
SC 13G/A
Jan 27, 2022
blackrock inc.
16.6%
51,816,914
SC 13G/A
Jan 26, 2022
blackrock inc.
16.6%
51,816,914
SC 13G/A
Apr 12, 2021
vanguard group inc
10.20%
23,538,155
SC 13G/A
Feb 16, 2021
susquehanna securities, llc
6.6%
13,353,482
SC 13G
Feb 10, 2021
vanguard group inc
9.46%
18,514,790
SC 13G/A
Jan 25, 2021
blackrock inc.
18.1%
32,876,461
SC 13G

IVR Fair Value

Invesco Mortgage Capital fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Invesco Mortgage Capital for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.
Fair ValueVery PessimisticPessimisticBase CaseOptimisticVery Optimistic
Very Low Inflation

3.54

-67.25%

4.26

-60.59%

7.44

-31.17%

10.48

-3.05%

12.79

18.32%
Current Inflation

3.45

-68.09%

4.12

-61.89%

6.89

-36.26%

9.52

-11.93%

11.51

6.48%
Very High Inflation

3.33

-69.20%

3.94

-63.55%

6.22

-42.46%

8.37

-22.57%

9.98

-7.68%

Historical Invesco Mortgage Capital Fair Value Estimates


Very Pessimistic Case
Pessimistic Case
Fair Value
Optimistic Case
Very Optimistic Case
Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Invesco Mortgage Capital

View All Filings
Date Filed Form Type Document
Mar 21, 2023
ARS
ARS
Mar 21, 2023
DEF 14A
DEF 14A
Mar 21, 2023
DEFA14A
DEFA14A
Mar 17, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Mar 07, 2023
3
Insider Trading
Feb 23, 2023
424B5
Prospectus Filed
Feb 23, 2023
8-K
Current Report
Feb 23, 2023
POS AM
POS AM
Feb 22, 2023
8-K
Current Report
Feb 21, 2023
10-K
Annual Report

Latest Insider Trading transactions for IVR

Filter Transactions
Datesorted ascendingNameBuy/Sell$ ValueAvg. Price# SharesTitle
2022-12-09
LIENTZ JAMES R JR
sold
-20,961
12.86
-1,630
-
2022-05-15
LIENTZ JAMES R JR
acquired
-
-
54,285
-
2022-05-15
Handlon Carolyn B
acquired
-
-
54,285
-
2022-05-15
LOCKHART DENNIS P
acquired
-
-
54,285
-
2022-05-15
LIU DON H
acquired
-
-
54,285
-
2022-05-15
HARDIN EDWARD J
acquired
-
-
54,285
-
2022-05-15
Day John
acquired
-
-
54,285
-
2022-05-10
Anzalone John
bought
24,750
1.65
15,000
ceo
2022-05-09
Collins Kevin M
bought
11,987
1.67
7,178
president
2022-05-09
Phegley Richard Lee Jr.
bought
20,193
1.67
12,092
chief financial officer

1–10 of 50

John M. Anzalone
0
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that primarily focuses on investing in, financing, and managing mortgage-backed securities and other mortgage-related assets. It invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) that are guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation; RMBS and CMBS that are not issued or guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or federally chartered corporation; credit risk transfer securities that are unsecured obligations issued by government-sponsored enterprises; residential and commercial mortgage loans; and other real estate-related financing arrangements. Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. has elected to be taxed as a REIT and would be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

IVR Income Statement

2022-12-31
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS - USD ($)
$ in Thousands
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2022
Dec. 31, 2021
Dec. 31, 2020
Interest income   
Mortgage-backed and other securities$ 192,566$ 167,056$ 277,400
Commercial and other loans1,9472,1462,766
Total interest income194,513169,202280,166
Interest expense   
Repurchase agreements[1]51,560(11,290)73,607
Secured loans008,655
Total interest expense51,560(11,290)82,262
Net interest income142,953180,492197,904
Other income (loss)   
Gain (loss) on investments, net(1,079,339)(366,509)(961,938)
(Increase) decrease in provision for credit losses01,768(1,768)
Equity in earnings (losses) of unconsolidated ventures(407)8701,163
Gain (loss) on derivative instruments, net559,007122,611(851,050)
Realized and unrealized credit derivative income (loss), net00(35,312)
Net gain (loss) on extinguishment of debt0014,742
Other investment income (loss), net18612,137
Total other income (loss)(520,553)(241,259)(1,832,026)
Expenses   
Management fee — related party16,90621,08029,367
General and administrative8,4188,15310,863
Total expenses25,32429,23340,230
Net income (loss)(402,924)(90,000)(1,674,352)
Dividends to preferred stockholders(28,218)(37,795)(44,426)
Gain on repurchase and retirement of preferred stock14,17900
Issuance and redemption costs of redeemed preferred stock04,6820
Net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders$ (416,963)$ (132,477)$ (1,718,778)
Net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders   
Basic (in usd per share)$ (12.21)$ (4.82)$ (98.93)
Diluted (in usd per share)$ (12.21)$ (4.82)$ (98.93)
Weighted average number of shares of common stock:   
Basic (in shares)34,160,08027,513,22317,373,039
Diluted (in shares)34,160,08027,513,22317,373,039
[1]Negative interest expense on repurchase agreements in 2021 is due to amortization of net deferred gains on de-designated interest rate swaps that exceeds current period interest expense on repurchase agreements. For further information on amortization of amounts classified in accumulated other comprehensive income before we discontinued hedge accounting, see Note 8 - “Derivatives and Hedging Activities” and Note 12 - “Stockholders' Equity”

IVR Balance Sheet

2022-12-31
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS - USD ($)
$ in Thousands
Dec. 31, 2022
Dec. 31, 2021
ASSETS  
Mortgage-backed securities, at fair value (including pledged securities of $4,439,583 and $7,326,175, respectively)$ 4,791,893$ 7,804,259
Cash and cash equivalents175,535357,134
Restricted cash103,246219,918
Due from counterparties1,5847,985
Investment related receivable22,74416,766
Derivative assets, at fair value662270
Other assets1,73137,509
Total assets5,097,3958,443,841
Liabilities:  
Repurchase agreements4,234,8236,987,834
Derivative liabilities, at fair value2,07914,356
Dividends payable25,16229,689
Accrued interest payable20,5461,171
Collateral held payable4,892280
Accounts payable and accrued expenses1,3651,887
Due to affiliate4,4536,489
Total liabilities4,293,3207,041,706
Commitments and contingencies
Stockholders' equity:  
Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share; 67,000,000 and 450,000,000 shares authorized, respectively; 38,710,916 and 32,987,478 shares issued and outstanding, respectively387330
Additional paid in capital3,901,5623,819,375
Accumulated other comprehensive income10,76137,286
Retained earnings (distributions in excess of earnings)(3,407,342)(2,882,824)
Total stockholders’ equity804,0751,402,135
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity5,097,3958,443,841
Series B Preferred Stock  
Stockholders' equity:  
Preferred Stock, par value $0.01 per share; 50,000,000 shares authorized:109,679149,860
Series C Preferred Stock  
Stockholders' equity:  
Preferred Stock, par value $0.01 per share; 50,000,000 shares authorized:$ 189,028$ 278,108