Carmax Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD57.78+1.05

Market Closed

1.85%

KMX Stock Price

KMX RSI Chart

KMX Valuation

Market Cap

9.1B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

15.86

Price/Sales (Trailing)

0.29

EV/EBITDA

7.68

Price/Free Cashflow

11.5

KMX Price/Sales (Trailing)

KMX Profitability

Operating Margin

9.16%

EBT Margin

2.39%

Return on Equity

10.49%

Return on Assets

2.22%

Free Cashflow Yield

8.7%

KMX Fundamentals

KMX Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

31.6B

Revenue Y/Y

-23.71%

Revenue Q/Q

-20.12%

KMX Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

575.6M

Earnings Y/Y

-86.05%

Earnings Q/Q

-70.15%

Price Action

52 Week Range

52.10106.24

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-1.2%

Last 30 days

-16.8%

Last 90 days

-4.0%

Trailing 12 Months

-41.8%

KMX Financial Health

Current Ratio

2.57

KMX Investor Care

Buy Backs (1Y)

2.46%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

3.57

Peers (Alternatives to Carmax)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
HD	287.5B	157.4B	-4.48%	-8.67%	16.81	1.83	4.13%	4.09%
ORLY	50.6B	14.4B	-3.77%	15.78%	23.27	3.51	8.12%	0.37%
AZO	44.3B	16.6B	-9.27%	15.68%	18.34	2.67	9.40%	5.72%
KMX	9.1B	31.6B	-16.85%	-41.80%	15.86	0.29	7.73%	-52.09%
MID-CAP
PAG	9.3B	27.8B	-10.01%	32.05%	6.71	0.33	8.84%	16.18%
AAP	6.6B	11.2B	-22.83%	-47.92%	13.09	0.59	1.43%	-18.54%
AN	5.9B	27.0B	-13.37%	9.90%	4.31	0.22	4.41%	0.32%
LAD	5.8B	28.2B	-17.52%	-33.88%	4.63	0.21	23.46%	18.01%
MUSA	5.7B	23.4B	-7.70%	29.37%	8.48	0.24	35.05%	69.54%
ABG	4.4B	15.4B	-13.37%	14.02%	4.4	0.28	66.05%	78.54%
SMALL-CAP
TA	1.3B	10.8B	2.29%	92.05%	7.94	0.12	47.82%	180.33%
CWH	804.4M	7.0B	-18.57%	-34.19%	5.87	0.12	0.77%	-50.82%
CRMT	473.8M	1.3B	-4.64%	-13.46%	7.61	0.35	25.02%	-44.81%
LAZY	129.1M	1.3B	-8.86%	-41.55%	1.94	0.1	7.44%	-19.05%
LMPX	92.2M	-	64.08%	-52.53%	1.2K	0.29	-	-

Financials for Carmax

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	-6.0%	31,649	33,671	33,514	31,900	29,378
Cost Of Revenue	-5.8%	28,749	30,511	30,276	28,613	26,160
Gross Profit	-8.2%	2,900	3,160	3,238	3,288	3,218
S&GA Expenses	0.6%	2,535	2,520	2,428	2,325	2,211
EBITDA	-21.3%	1,100	1,397	1,582	-	-
EBITDA Margin	-16.2%	0.03*	0.04*	0.05*	-	-
Earnings Before Taxes	-28.8%	755	1,061	1,262	1,492	1,553
EBT Margin	-24.3%	0.02*	0.03*	0.04*	-	-
Interest Expenses	5.2%	119	113	102	94.00	88.00
Net Income	-28.7%	576	807	967	1,151	1,201
Net Income Margin	-24.2%	0.02*	0.02*	0.03*	-	-
Free Cahsflow	174.9%	794	-1,059	-2,250	-	-

Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	-2.0%	25,939	26,471	26,339	26,338	25,575
Current Assets	-15.1%	4,984	5,872	6,118	6,549	5,955
Cash Equivalents	1113.0%	689	57.00	95.00	103	63.00
Inventory	-26.9%	3,415	4,672	4,691	5,125	4,659
Net PPE	1.9%	3,375	3,313	3,259	3,209	3,176
Goodwill	0%	141	141	141	141	141
Liabilities	-2.9%	20,451	21,056	20,938	21,103	20,465
Current Liabilities	-9.2%	1,937	2,132	2,252	2,047	2,057
LT Debt, Current	0.2%	113	113	112	11.00	11.00
Shareholder's Equity	1.4%	5,488	5,414	5,401	5,235	5,110
Retained Earnings	1.0%	3,654	3,619	3,637	3,524	3,456
Additional Paid-In Capital	0.8%	1,697	1,684	1,678	1,677	1,673
Accumulated Depreciation	2.6%	1,585	1,545	1,494	1,438	1,542
Shares Outstanding	0.0%	158	158	160	161	162

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	274.6%	1,195	-684	-1,906	-2,549	-2,283
Share Based Compensation	-21.8%	65.00	83.00	91.00	109	157
Cashflow From Investing	-16.8%	-409	-350	-559	-523	-438
Cashflow From Financing	-122.7%	-230	1,013	2,175	3,105	2,618
Buy Backs	-21.0%	424	536	594	576	531

Risks for KMX

What is the probability of a big loss on KMX?

72.7%

Probability that Carmax stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

43.9%

Probability that Carmax stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

38.5%

Probability that Carmax stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does KMX drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Carmax was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for KMX

Cumulative Returns on KMX

3.5%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

2.4%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

-0.5%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

0.9%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for KMX?

FIve years rolling returns for Carmax.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold KMX recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-10	BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	added	224	5,541,210	8,324,210	0.01%
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	added	19.33	472,577	5,166,580	0.01%
2023-03-08	SHEETS SMITH WEALTH MANAGEMENT	reduced	-17.41	-632,452	2,021,550	0.32%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	reduced	-25.96	-127,000	274,000	-%
2023-03-02	LORING WOLCOTT & COOLIDGE FIDUCIARY ADVISORS LLP/MA	new	-	3,653	3,653	-%
2023-03-01	Lakewood Asset Management LLC	new	-	1,377,000	1,377,000	1.11%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	reduced	-2.14	-544,594	5,045,410	0.01%
2023-02-27	ST GERMAIN D J CO INC	new	-	44,145	44,145	0.01%
2023-02-24	NATIXIS	sold off	-100	-2,438,000	-	-%
2023-02-24	National Pension Service	reduced	-91.15	-17,138,200	1,544,660	-%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying KMX calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own KMX

No. of Funds

Carmax News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Carmax

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 15, 2023	principal global investors	6.34%	10,022,302	SC 13G/A
Feb 13, 2023	capital research global investors	5.1%	7,997,343	SC 13G
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	11.28%	17,821,225	SC 13G/A
Feb 01, 2023	blackrock inc.	6.6%	10,449,547	SC 13G/A
Feb 15, 2022	principal global investors	5.33%	8,631,463	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2022	vanguard group inc	10.74%	17,386,633	SC 13G/A
Feb 03, 2022	blackrock inc.	6.3%	10,200,300	SC 13G/A
Nov 08, 2021	primecap management co/ca/	4.49%	7,278,317	SC 13G/A
Feb 16, 2021	principal global investors	5.64%	9,174,243	SC 13G
Feb 12, 2021	primecap management co/ca/	5.26%	8,582,253	SC 13G/A

KMX Fair Value

Carmax fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Carmax for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	124.42 115.33%	150.75 160.90%	208.54 260.92%	317.68 449.81%	446.73 673.16%
Current Inflation	114.19 97.63%	136.49 136.22%	185.20 220.53%	277.42 380.13%	386.53 568.97%
Very High Inflation	101.58 75.80%	119.24 106.37%	157.64 172.83%	230.74 299.34%	317.27 449.10%

Historical Carmax Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Carmax

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Feb 15, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 13, 2023	SC 13G	Major Ownership Report
Feb 09, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 01, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Jan 06, 2023	10-Q	Quarterly Report
Jan 03, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Dec 30, 2022	4	Insider Trading
Dec 28, 2022	4	Insider Trading
Dec 28, 2022	4	Insider Trading
Dec 22, 2022	8-K	Current Report

Latest Insider Trading transactions for KMX

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2022-12-30	Nash William D	bought	501,256	60.98	8,220	president & ceo
2022-12-26	Mayor-Mora Enrique N	acquired	-	-	331	evp & cfo
2022-12-26	Livesay Jill A	sold (taxes)	-61,363	60.16	-1,020	vp, controller & pao
2022-12-26	Mayor-Mora Enrique N	sold (taxes)	-9,024	60.16	-150	evp & cfo
2022-07-21	Cafritz Diane L	sold	-1,473,840	94.75	-15,555	evp, general counsel & chro
2022-07-21	Cafritz Diane L	acquired	908,101	58.38	15,555	evp, general counsel & chro
2022-07-18	Shamim Mohammad	sold	-324,553	93.91	-3,456	evp and cito
2022-07-01	Satriano Pietro	acquired	-	-	1,996	-
2022-07-01	FOLLIARD THOMAS J	acquired	-	-	1,996	-
2022-07-01	Cafritz Diane L	acquired	875,700	58.38	15,000	evp, general counsel & chro

About Carmax

William D. Nash

www.carmax.com

32600

CarMax, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer of used vehicles in the United States. The company operates through two segments, CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance. It offers customers a range of makes and models of used vehicles, including domestic, imported, and luxury vehicles, as well as hybrid and electric vehicles; and extended protection plans to customers at the time of sale, as well as sells vehicles that are approximately 10 years old and has more than 100,000 miles through wholesale auctions. The company also provides reconditioning and vehicle repair services; and financing alternatives for retail customers across a range of credit spectrum through its CarMax Auto Finance and arrangements with various financial institutions. As of February 28, 2022, it operated approximately 230 used car stores. CarMax, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is based in Richmond, Virginia.

KMX Income Statement

2022-11-30

Consolidated Statements Of Earnings - USD ($) shares in Thousands, $ in Thousands	3 Months Ended		9 Months Ended
	Nov. 30, 2022	Nov. 30, 2021	Nov. 30, 2022	Nov. 30, 2021
SALES AND OPERATING REVENUES:
NET SALES AND OPERATING REVENUES	$ 6,505,956	$ 8,527,759	$ 23,962,380	$ 24,213,717
TOTAL COST OF SALES	5,929,268	7,691,199	21,773,156	21,637,164
GROSS PROFIT	576,688	836,560	2,189,224	2,576,553
CARMAX AUTO FINANCE INCOME	152,196	165,968	539,538	607,732
Selling, general and administrative expenses	591,727	575,930	1,914,508	1,704,285
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization, Nonproduction	57,377	54,428	170,717	157,107
Interest expense	30,150	24,303	91,670	67,247
Other income	(363)	(8,094)	(2,303)	(35,453)
Earnings before income taxes	49,993	355,961	554,170	1,291,099
Income tax provision	12,413	86,523	138,420	299,638
NET EARNINGS	$ 37,580	$ 269,438	$ 415,750	$ 991,461
WEIGHTED AVERAGE COMMON SHARES:
Basic, shares	158,003	162,006	159,044	162,710
Diluted, shares	158,536	164,873	160,195	165,606
NET EARNINGS PER SHARE:
Basic (in dollars per share)	$ 0.24	$ 1.66	$ 2.61	$ 6.09
Diluted (in dollars per share)	$ 0.24	$ 1.63	$ 2.60	$ 5.99
Used vehicle sales
SALES AND OPERATING REVENUES:
NET SALES AND OPERATING REVENUES	$ 5,204,584	$ 6,435,590	$ 18,503,159	$ 18,697,300
TOTAL COST OF SALES	4,801,790	5,927,237	17,041,898	17,085,416
Wholesale vehicle sales
SALES AND OPERATING REVENUES:
NET SALES AND OPERATING REVENUES	1,152,207	1,922,283	4,959,050	4,998,212
TOTAL COST OF SALES	1,037,534	1,710,103	4,512,053	4,411,175
Total other sales and revenues
SALES AND OPERATING REVENUES:
NET SALES AND OPERATING REVENUES	149,165	169,886	500,171	518,205
TOTAL COST OF SALES	$ 89,944	$ 53,859	$ 219,205	$ 140,573
NET SALES AND OPERATING REVENUES
Percentage of Sales
Item as a percent of net sales and operating revenues	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%	100.00%
TOTAL COST OF SALES
Percentage of Sales
Item as a percent of net sales and operating revenues	91.10%	90.20%	90.90%	89.40%
GROSS PROFIT
Percentage of Sales
Item as a percent of net sales and operating revenues	8.90%	9.80%	9.10%	10.60%
CARMAX AUTO FINANCE INCOME
Percentage of Sales
Item as a percent of net sales and operating revenues	2.30%	1.90%	2.30%	2.50%
Selling, general and administrative expenses
Percentage of Sales
Item as a percent of net sales and operating revenues	9.10%	6.80%	8.00%	7.00%
Depreciation and Amortization, Nonproduction
Percentage of Sales
Item as a percent of net sales and operating revenues	0.90%	0.60%	0.70%	0.60%
Interest expense
Percentage of Sales
Item as a percent of net sales and operating revenues	0.50%	0.30%	0.40%	0.30%
Other income
Percentage of Sales
Item as a percent of net sales and operating revenues	0.00%	(0.10%)	0.00%	(0.10%)
Earnings before income taxes
Percentage of Sales
Item as a percent of net sales and operating revenues	0.80%	4.20%	2.30%	5.30%
Income tax provision
Percentage of Sales
Item as a percent of net sales and operating revenues	0.20%	1.00%	0.60%	1.20%
NET EARNINGS
Percentage of Sales
Item as a percent of net sales and operating revenues	0.60%	3.20%	1.70%	4.10%
NET SALES AND OPERATING REVENUES \| Used vehicle sales
Percentage of Sales
Item as a percent of net sales and operating revenues	80.00%	75.50%	77.20%	77.20%
NET SALES AND OPERATING REVENUES \| Wholesale vehicle sales
Percentage of Sales
Item as a percent of net sales and operating revenues	17.70%	22.50%	20.70%	20.60%
NET SALES AND OPERATING REVENUES \| Total other sales and revenues
Percentage of Sales
Item as a percent of net sales and operating revenues	2.30%	2.00%	2.10%	2.10%
TOTAL COST OF SALES \| Used vehicle sales
Percentage of Sales
Item as a percent of net sales and operating revenues	73.80%	69.50%	71.10%	70.60%
TOTAL COST OF SALES \| Wholesale vehicle sales
Percentage of Sales
Item as a percent of net sales and operating revenues	15.90%	20.10%	18.80%	18.20%
TOTAL COST OF SALES \| Total other sales and revenues
Percentage of Sales
Item as a percent of net sales and operating revenues	1.40%	0.60%	0.90%	0.60%

KMX Balance Sheet

2022-11-30

Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Nov. 30, 2022	Feb. 28, 2022
CURRENT ASSETS:
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 688,618	$ 102,716
Restricted cash from collections on auto loans receivable	466,525	548,099
Accounts receivable, net	246,794	560,984
Inventory	3,414,937	5,124,569
Other current assets	167,143	212,922
TOTAL CURRENT ASSETS	4,984,017	6,549,290
Auto loans receivable, net of allowance for loan losses of $491,047 and $433,030 as of November 30, 2022 and February 28, 2022, respectively	16,240,832	15,289,701
Property and equipment, net of accumulated depreciation of $1,585,271 and $1,437,548 as of November 30, 2022 and February 28, 2022, respectively	3,375,001	3,209,068
Deferred Income Tax Assets, Net	87,262	120,931
Operating lease assets	529,781	537,357
Goodwill	141,258	141,258
Other assets	580,790	490,659
TOTAL ASSETS	25,938,941	26,338,264
CURRENT LIABILITIES:
Accounts payable	802,780	937,717
Accrued expenses and other current liabilities	496,202	533,271
Current portion of operating lease liabilities	51,215	44,197
Current portion of long-term debt	112,708	11,203
Current portion of non-recourse notes payable	474,147	521,069
TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES	1,937,052	2,047,457
Long-term debt, excluding current portion	1,903,223	3,255,304
Non-recourse notes payable, excluding current portion	15,737,459	14,919,715
Operating lease liabilities, excluding current portion	509,106	523,269
Other liabilities	364,528	357,080
TOTAL LIABILITIES	20,451,368	21,102,825
Commitments and contingent liabilities
SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY:
Common stock, $0.50 par value; 350,000,000 shares authorized; 158,019,398 and 161,053,983 shares issued and outstanding as of November 30, 2022 and February 28, 2022, respectively	79,010	80,527
Capital in excess of par value	1,697,062	1,677,268
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)	57,420	(46,422)
Retained earnings	3,654,081	3,524,066
TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY	5,487,573	5,235,439
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS’ EQUITY	$ 25,938,941	$ 26,338,264