National Retail Properties Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD44.15+0.85

Market Closed

1.96%

NNN Stock Price

NNN RSI Chart

NNN Valuation

Market Cap

8.0B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

23.94

Price/Sales (Trailing)

10.36

Price/Free Cashflow

13.85

NNN Price/Sales (Trailing)

NNN Profitability

Return on Equity

8.12%

Return on Assets

4.11%

Free Cashflow Yield

7.22%

NNN Fundamentals

NNN Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

773.1M

Revenue Y/Y

6.01%

Revenue Q/Q

2.61%

NNN Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

334.6M

Earnings Y/Y

16.88%

Earnings Q/Q

2.53%

Price Action

52 Week Range

37.5548.21

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

5.2%

Last 30 days

-2.2%

Last 90 days

-3.5%

Trailing 12 Months

1.9%

NNN Financial Health

NNN Investor Care

Dividend Yield

4.89%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

2.16

Buy Backs (1Y)

99.90%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

1.89

Peers (Alternatives to National Retail Properties)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
PSA	53.0B	4.2B	2.18%	-18.90%	12.18	12.66	22.43%	122.66%
DLR	28.6B	4.7B	-1.36%	-27.66%	75.78	6.1	5.96%	-77.90%
EQR	22.7B	2.7B	-1.54%	-32.08%	29.23	8.37	11.91%	-41.71%
ARE	21.4B	2.6B	-12.12%	-36.55%	41.11	8.28	22.46%	-8.68%
KIM	13.2B	1.7B	-4.07%	-25.83%	104.43	7.61	26.61%	-85.07%
MID-CAP
FRT	8.0B	1.1B	-7.32%	-17.18%	20.85	7.48	12.95%	47.42%
KRG	4.6B	802.0M	-3.51%	-5.01%	-362.88	5.72	114.83%	84.36%
VNO	2.9B	1.8B	-21.50%	-64.10%	-8.51	1.64	13.26%	-296.88%
MAC	2.3B	859.2M	-11.59%	-29.47%	-34.53	2.66	1.38%	-563.21%
SMALL-CAP
SKT	2.0B	421.4M	4.75%	18.56%	24.12	4.86	3.35%	1705.32%
SLG	1.5B	826.7M	-29.95%	-68.39%	-19.71	1.86	-2.04%	-117.36%
AIV	1.1B	190.3M	3.36%	5.05%	12.23	5.92	12.08%	1950.56%
PGRE	987.5M	740.4M	-12.31%	-57.77%	-27.13	1.33	1.87%	-78.85%

Financials for National Retail Properties

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	1.5%	773	762	749	737	726
Operating Expenses	-0.4%	308	309	309	305	300
S&GA Expenses	2.1%	42.00	41.00	42.00	44.00	45.00
EBITDA	-	572	-	-	-	-
EBITDA Margin	-	0.79*	-	-	-	-
EBT Margin	-	0.31*	-	-	-	-
Interest Expenses	0.7%	148	147	144	140	138
Net Income	4.1%	335	322	316	315	290
Net Income Margin	2.6%	0.43*	0.42*	0.42*	0.43*	-
Free Cahsflow	-0.4%	578	581	563	572	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	2.4%	8,146	7,952	7,804	7,772	7,751
Cash Equivalents	-23.6%	3.00	3.00	3.00	54.00	171
Liabilities	2.0%	4,023	3,945	3,889	3,874	3,849
Shareholder's Equity	2.9%	4,124	4,007	3,916	3,898	3,902
Retained Earnings	-0.9%	-793	-786	-777	-759	-747
Additional Paid-In Capital	2.6%	4,928	4,805	4,705	4,670	4,663
Shares Outstanding	1.5%	181	179	177	176	-
Minority Interest	NaN%	-	-	-	0.00	0.00

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	-0.4%	578	581	563	572	568
Cashflow From Investing	-35.3%	-777	-574	-594	-533	-432
Cashflow From Financing	106.4%	35.00	-545	-214	-295	-232
Dividend Payments	1.4%	381	375	371	369	367

Risks for NNN

What is the probability of a big loss on NNN?

20.4%

Probability that National Retail Properties stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

19.6%

Probability that National Retail Properties stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

19.6%

Probability that National Retail Properties stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does NNN drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if National Retail Properties was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for NNN

Cumulative Returns on NNN

6.5%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

3.8%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

7.1%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

16.5%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for NNN?

FIve years rolling returns for National Retail Properties.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold NNN recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-27	Neo Ivy Capital Management	sold off	-100	-32,000	-	-%
2023-03-23	MetLife Investment Management, LLC	reduced	-1.04	616,611	5,149,050	0.04%
2023-03-22	Campion Asset Management	reduced	-4.58	20,410	238,410	0.23%
2023-03-17	American Portfolios Advisors	unchanged	-	-11,513	146,153	0.01%
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	added	0.51	52,443,100	393,342,000	0.43%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	added	9.14	58,000	286,000	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	added	14.06	3,614,580	15,298,600	0.02%
2023-02-24	Bridgewealth Advisory Group, LLC	new	-	245,868	245,868	0.48%
2023-02-22	CVA Family Office, LLC	sold off	-100	-10,000	-	-%
2023-02-22	TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY	added	16.87	332,000	1,300,000	0.01%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying NNN calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own NNN

No. of Funds

National Retail Properties News

Schedule 13G FIlings of National Retail Properties

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 09, 2023	fmr llc	-	0	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	14.98%	26,777,900	SC 13G/A
Jan 23, 2023	blackrock inc.	11.3%	20,125,181	SC 13G/A
Feb 11, 2022	state street corp	10.44%	18,330,427	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2022	vanguard group inc	14.71%	25,837,049	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2022	fmr llc	-	0	SC 13G/A
Jan 27, 2022	blackrock inc.	11.5%	20,113,625	SC 13G/A
Jan 25, 2022	blackrock inc.	11.5%	20,113,625	SC 13G/A
Mar 24, 2021	pggm investments	4.73%	8	SC 13G
Feb 11, 2021	state street corp	10.17%	17,660,187	SC 13G

NNN Fair Value

National Retail Properties fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for National Retail Properties for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	26.49 -40.00%	33.33 -24.51%	41.33 -6.39%	52.65 19.25%	60.41 36.83%
Current Inflation	24.69 -44.08%	30.48 -30.96%	37.09 -15.99%	46.53 5.39%	52.94 19.91%
Very High Inflation	22.46 -49.13%	27.05 -38.73%	32.11 -27.27%	39.45 -10.65%	44.38 0.52%

Historical National Retail Properties Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of National Retail Properties

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 23, 2023	DEF 14A	DEF 14A
Feb 16, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 16, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 16, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 16, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Feb 10, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 09, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 09, 2023	10-K	Annual Report
Feb 09, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Feb 09, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report

Latest Insider Trading transactions for NNN

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-02-15	Tessitore Christopher Paul	back to issuer	-	-	-5,457	evp, chief general counsel
2023-02-15	Miller Michelle Lynn	acquired	621,238	46.65	13,317	evp, chief accounting officer
2023-02-15	Miller Michelle Lynn	back to issuer	-	-	-1,440	evp, chief accounting officer
2023-02-15	HABICHT KEVIN B	acquired	2,852,930	46.65	61,156	evp, chief financial officer
2023-02-15	Horn Stephen A JR	back to issuer	-	-	-5,398	president & ceo
2023-02-15	HABICHT KEVIN B	back to issuer	-	-	-8,258	evp, chief financial officer
2023-02-15	Horn Stephen A JR	acquired	6,267,190	46.65	134,345	president & ceo
2023-02-15	Tessitore Christopher Paul	acquired	1,819,820	46.65	39,010	evp, chief general counsel
2023-01-31	FRITSCH EDWARD J	acquired	33,104	46.89	706	-
2023-01-31	FICK DAVID M	acquired	59,456	46.89	1,268	-

About National Retail Properties

Stephen A. Horn

www.nnnreit.com

National Retail Properties invests primarily in high-quality retail properties subject generally to long-term, net leases. As of September 30, 2020, the company owned 3,114 properties in 48 states with a gross leasable area of approximately 32.4 million square feet and with a weighted average remaining lease term of 10.7 years.

NNN Income Statement

2022-09-30

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOME AND COMPREHENSIVE INCOME - USD ($) $ in Thousands	3 Months Ended		9 Months Ended
	Sep. 30, 2022	Sep. 30, 2021	Sep. 30, 2022	Sep. 30, 2021
Revenues:
Rental income	$ 193,102	$ 180,024	$ 573,401	$ 537,226
Interest and other income from real estate transactions	369	333	1,132	1,920
Total revenues	193,471	180,357	574,533	539,146
Operating expenses:
General and administrative	10,124	11,077	30,906	34,693
Real estate	5,875	6,521	19,246	20,865
Depreciation and amortization	56,388	50,976	166,512	151,831
Leasing transaction costs	96	86	260	146
Impairment losses – real estate, net of recoveries	971	4,781	7,221	14,647
Executive retirement costs	556	0	6,805	0
Total operating expenses	74,010	73,441	230,950	222,182
Gain on disposition of real estate	5,889	9,473	10,656	17,935
Earnings from operations	125,350	116,389	354,239	334,899
Other expenses (revenues):
Interest and other income	(33)	(61)	(120)	(159)
Interest expense	36,962	33,518	110,400	101,190
Loss on early extinguishment of debt	0	0	0	21,328
Total other expenses (revenues)	36,929	33,457	110,280	122,359
Net earnings	88,421	82,932	243,959	212,540
Loss attributable to noncontrolling interests	0	1	5	3
Net earnings attributable to NNN	88,421	82,933	243,964	212,543
Series F preferred stock dividends	0	(4,485)	0	(13,455)
Net earnings attributable to common stockholders	$ 88,421	$ 78,448	$ 243,964	$ 199,088
Net earnings per share of common stock:
Basic (in dollars per share)	$ 0.50	$ 0.45	$ 1.39	$ 1.14
Diluted (in dollars per share)	$ 0.50	$ 0.45	$ 1.38	$ 1.14
Weighted average number of common shares outstanding:
Basic (in shares)	176,900,786	174,629,442	175,542,356	174,610,026
Diluted (in shares)	177,367,710	174,738,903	175,993,907	174,716,053
Other comprehensive income:
Net earnings attributable to NNN	$ 88,421	$ 82,933	$ 243,964	$ 212,543
Amortization of interest rate hedges	595	565	1,770	2,494
Fair value of forward starting swaps	0	1,584	0	1,584
Comprehensive income attributable to NNN	89,016	81,914	245,734	213,453
Comprehensive loss attributable to noncontrolling interests	0	(1)	(5)	(3)
Total comprehensive income	$ 89,016	$ 81,913	$ 245,729	$ 213,450

NNN Balance Sheet

2022-09-30

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Sep. 30, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
ASSETS
Real estate portfolio	$ 7,826,292	$ 7,449,846
Cash and cash equivalents	3,277	171,322
Receivables, net of allowance of $664 and $782, respectively	2,978	3,154
Accrued rental income, net of allowance of $3,924 and $4,587, respectively	28,231	31,942
Debt costs, net of accumulated amortization of $21,085 and $19,377, respectively	5,858	7,443
Other assets	85,211	87,347
Total assets	7,951,847	7,751,054
Liabilities:
Line of credit payable	47,500	0
Mortgages payable, including unamortized premium and net of unamortized debt costs	10,151	10,697
Notes payable, net of unamortized discount and unamortized debt costs	3,738,843	3,735,769
Accrued interest payable	57,384	23,923
Other liabilities	91,037	79,002
Total liabilities	3,944,915	3,849,391
Stockholders’ equity:
Common stock, $0.01 par value. Authorized 375,000,000 shares; 178,731,891 and 175,635,792 shares issued and outstanding, respectively	1,788	1,757
Capital in excess of par value	4,804,856	4,662,714
Accumulated deficit	(786,526)	(747,853)
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)	(13,186)	(14,956)
Total stockholders’ equity of NNN	4,006,932	3,901,662
Noncontrolling interests	0	1
Total equity	4,006,932	3,901,663
Total liabilities and equity	$ 7,951,847	$ 7,751,054