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Progressive Corp Stock Research

PGR

140.88USD+0.45(+0.32%)Delayedas of 27 Mar 2023, 11:04 am

Market Summary

USD140.88+0.45
Delayedas of 27 Mar 2023, 11:04 am
0.32%

PGR Alerts

PGR Stock Price

PGR RSI Chart

PGR Valuation

Market Cap

82.1B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

113.76

Price/Sales (Trailing)

1.65

EV/EBITDA

55.64

Price/Free Cashflow

12.52

PGR Price/Sales (Trailing)

PGR Profitability

EBT Margin

1.86%

Return on Equity

4.54%

Return on Assets

0.96%

Free Cashflow Yield

7.99%

PGR Fundamentals

PGR Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

49.6B

Revenue Y/Y

-11.21%

Revenue Q/Q

6.95%

PGR Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

721.5M

Earnings Y/Y

-14.12%

Earnings Q/Q

565.91%

Price Action

52 Week Range

106.35146.50
(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-1.7%

Last 30 days

-1.5%

Last 90 days

8.5%

Trailing 12 Months

23.1%

PGR Financial Health

Debt/Equity

0.39

Debt/Cashflow

1.11

PGR Investor Care

Dividend Yield

0.28%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

0.4

Buy Backs (1Y)

0.03%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

1.18

Peers (Alternatives to Progressive)

View All Peers In Detail
NameMkt Capsorted ascendingRevenuePrice %, 1MReturns, 1YP/EP/SRev 1-YrInc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
82.1B
49.6B
-1.45% 23.08%
113.76
1.65
4.00% -78.47%
38.3B
36.9B
-11.40% -9.04%
13.47
1.04
5.94% -22.39%
36.1B
56.4B
-21.96% -24.58%
3.52
0.64
8.41% 9.46%
27.8B
51.4B
-20.78% -23.42%
-19.61
0.54
1.63% -195.35%
24.1B
12.1B
-9.20% 18.91%
40.37
2
1.63% -56.71%
23.3B
22.4B
-14.30% -7.21%
11.93
1.05
-0.13% -23.26%
11.4B
6.8B
0.57% 29.95%
32.11
0.97
-36.57% -61.35%
10.1B
7.0B
-10.40% -12.63%
11.2
1.43
7.45% -54.99%
MID-CAP
8.4B
6.3B
-7.80% 26.66%
-7.88
1.32
21.94% -2542.77%
4.0B
-
-7.41% -13.46%
-4.15
4.2
-80.45% -283.49%
SMALL-CAP
1.4B
1.4B
-10.42% -18.96%
-523.07
0.98
3.97% -101.82%
1.3B
327.1M
-8.98% -16.27%
25.76
4.11
39.88% 13.79%
961.6M
1.1B
-8.24% -30.70%
-2.4K
0.87
-1.58% -100.28%
776.0M
813.7M
-6.42% -3.67%
25.05
0.95
5.28% 117.92%

Financials for Progressive

Income Statement (Last 12 Months)
(In Millions)
* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Revenue-3.3%49,61151,32350,28949,12347,702
EBITDA-10.1%1,4711,6361,6203,237-
EBITDA Margin-7.0%0.03*0.03*0.04*0.07*-
Earnings Before Taxes-16.2%9221,1011,0972,7324,210
EBT Margin-13.3%0.02*0.02*0.02*0.06*-
Interest Expenses5.0%244232223217219
Net Income-15.9%7228578522,1853,351
Net Income Margin-12.9%0.01*0.02*0.02*0.05*-
Free Cahsflow8.0%6,5576,0716,4347,384-
Balance Sheet
(In Millions)
* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Assets-0.1%75,46575,52473,05773,93071,132
    Cash Equivalents-39.5%221365241287202
  Net PPE-3.1%1,0341,0671,1251,1041,137
  Goodwill0%228228228453453
Liabilities-1.9%59,57460,74857,40556,87852,901
    LT Debt, CurrentNaN%-----
Shareholder's Equity7.5%15,89114,77615,65317,05118,232
  Retained Earnings4.9%15,72114,98814,96815,57015,340
  Additional Paid-In Capital2.9%1,8931,8401,8151,7891,773
Accumulated Depreciation3.5%1,5511,4991,5131,4561,407
Shares Outstanding0.0%585584584--
Cashflow (Last 12 Months)
(In Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Cashflow From Operations7.5%6,8496,3716,7157,6507,762
Cashflow From Investing-22.3%-7,956-6,505-6,280-7,147-3,119
Cashflow From Financing425.5%1,126214-308-338-4,516
  Dividend Payments-78.9%2341,1111,1111,1113,747

Risks for PGR

What is the probability of a big loss on PGR?

0%


Probability that Progressive stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

0%


Probability that Progressive stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

0%


Probability that Progressive stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.
*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does PGR drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Progressive was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for PGR

Cumulative Returns on PGR

22.5%


10-Year Cumulative Returns

25.3%


7-Year Cumulative Returns

22.1%


5-Year Cumulative Returns

29.7%


3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for PGR?

FIve years rolling returns for Progressive.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold PGR recently?

View All Details
Datesorted ascendingFund NameType% Chg$ Change$ Held% Portfolio
2023-03-15
B. Riley Wealth Advisors, Inc.
added
9.89
184,455
1,007,460
0.03%
2023-03-10
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO
added
181
8,379,050
12,301,000
0.01%
2023-03-10
VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC
reduced
-0.23
65,226,100
639,193,000
0.70%
2023-03-10
MATHER GROUP, LLC.
added
2.48
133,825
1,065,820
0.02%
2023-03-06
Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.
added
11.37
2,470,000
12,633,000
0.06%
2023-03-03
TIAA, FSB
added
0.12
79,151
751,151
-%
2023-03-02
LORING WOLCOTT & COOLIDGE FIDUCIARY ADVISORS LLP/MA
new
-
273,948
273,948
-%
2023-03-02
OLIVER LAGORE VANVALIN INVESTMENT GROUP
reduced
-2.95
8,902
110,902
0.06%
2023-03-01
Willow Creek Wealth Management Inc.
reduced
-7.53
13,000
392,000
0.06%
2023-03-01
Regal Investment Advisors LLC
reduced
-0.77
35,296
366,296
0.04%

1–10 of 46

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying PGR calls or puts?
Calls
Puts
Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?
Net Call Options
No. of funds that own PGR
No. of Funds

Progressive News

MarketBeat

Catalyst Financial Partners LLC Buys Shares of 3115 The ....

MarketBeat,
2 hours ago

Nasdaq

Stock Traders Daily

Journal Transcript

Schedule 13G FIlings of Progressive

Date FiledName of FilerPercent of ClassNo. of SharesForm Type
Feb 09, 2023
vanguard group inc
8.64%
50,562,142
SC 13G/A
Jan 31, 2023
blackrock inc.
7.4%
43,452,644
SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2022
vanguard group inc
8.08%
47,203,179
SC 13G/A
Feb 04, 2022
wellington management group llp
4.84%
28,261,623
SC 13G/A
Feb 01, 2022
blackrock inc.
7.8%
45,790,327
SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2021
vanguard group inc
8.25%
48,263,533
SC 13G/A
Feb 04, 2021
wellington management group llp
5.81%
34,012,839
SC 13G/A
Jan 29, 2021
blackrock inc.
7.5%
44,189,367
SC 13G/A
Feb 12, 2020
vanguard group inc
8.17%
47,814,893
SC 13G/A
Feb 05, 2020
blackrock inc.
7.2%
42,015,810
SC 13G/A

PGR Fair Value

Progressive fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Progressive for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.
Fair ValueVery PessimisticPessimisticBase CaseOptimisticVery Optimistic
Very Low Inflation

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-
Current Inflation

104.79

-25.62%

132.82

-5.72%

185.89

31.95%

247.08

75.38%

279.88

98.67%
Very High Inflation

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Historical Progressive Fair Value Estimates


Very Pessimistic Case
Pessimistic Case
Fair Value
Optimistic Case
Very Optimistic Case
Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Progressive

View All Filings
Date Filed Form Type Document
Mar 24, 2023
144
Notice of Insider Sale Intent
Mar 24, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Mar 24, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Mar 24, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Mar 24, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Mar 24, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Mar 24, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Mar 24, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Mar 24, 2023
4
Insider Trading
Mar 24, 2023
4
Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for PGR

Filter Transactions
Datesorted ascendingNameBuy/Sell$ ValueAvg. Price# SharesTitle
2023-03-22
Johnson Devin C
sold
-70,091
140
-500
-
2023-03-16
Marshall Mariann Wojtkun
sold
-65,388
138
-471
chief accounting officer
2023-02-24
Broz Steven
sold
-131,725
141
-930
chief information officer
2023-02-24
Mascaro Daniel P
sold
-397,442
141
-2,806
vice pres, secretary and clo
2023-02-22
Griffith Susan Patricia
sold
-2,207,070
142
-15,473
president and ceo
2023-02-21
Griffith Susan Patricia
acquired
-
-
28,051
president and ceo
2023-02-21
Griffith Susan Patricia
sold (taxes)
-1,790,860
142
-12,578
president and ceo
2023-02-21
Sauerland John P
sold (taxes)
-245,890
142
-1,727
vp and chief financial officer
2023-02-21
Sauerland John P
acquired
-
-
3,840
vp and chief financial officer
2023-02-21
Bauer Jonathan S.
acquired
-
-
6,201
chief investment officer

1–10 of 50

Susan P. Griffith
49100
The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles (RV). This segment's products include personal auto insurance; and special lines products, including insurance for motorcycles, ATVs, RVs, watercrafts, snowmobiles, and related products. The Commercial Lines segment provides auto-related primary liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance for autos, vans, pick-up trucks, and dump trucks used by small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks primarily used by regional general freight and expeditor-type businesses, and long-haul operators; dump trucks, log trucks, and garbage trucks used by dirt, sand and gravel, logging, and coal-type businesses; and tow trucks and wreckers used in towing services and gas/service station businesses; as well as non-fleet and airport taxis, and black-car services. The Property segment writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters, as well as offers personal umbrella insurance, and primary and excess flood insurance. The company also offers policy issuance and claims adjusting services; and acts as an agent to homeowner general liability, workers' compensation insurance, and other products. In addition, it provides reinsurance services. The company sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as directly on Internet through mobile devices, and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.

PGR Income Statement

2022-12-31
Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income - USD ($)
shares in Millions, $ in Millions
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2022
Dec. 31, 2021
Dec. 31, 2020
Revenues   
Net premiums earned$ 49,241.2$ 44,368.7$ 39,261.6
Investment income1,260.3860.9936.6
Net realized gains (losses) on securities:   
Net realized gains (losses) on security sales196.5614.3914.7
Net holding period gains (losses) on securities(2,100.1)899.9715.3
Net impairment losses recognized in earnings(8.6)(5.0)0.0
Debt and Equity Securities, Gain (Loss)(1,912.2)1,509.21,630.0
Fees and other revenues722.1691.8603.5
Service revenues299.3271.4226.4
Total revenues49,610.747,702.042,658.1
Expenses   
Losses and loss adjustment expenses38,122.733,627.625,121.8
Policy acquisition costs3,917.03,712.83,273.2
Other underwriting expenses5,859.65,654.75,570.0
Policyholder credit expense0.00.01,077.4
Investment expenses24.325.520.0
Service expenses296.7252.8205.5
Interest expense243.5218.6217.0
Goodwill impairment[1]224.80.00.0
Total expenses48,688.643,492.035,484.9
Net Income   
Income before income taxes922.14,210.07,173.2
Provision for income taxes200.6859.11,468.6
Net income721.53,350.95,704.6
Changes in:   
Total net unrealized gains (losses) on fixed-maturity securities(2,842.5)(891.1)586.5
Net unrealized losses on forecasted transactions0.40.70.8
Foreign currency translation adjustment(0.6)(0.6)0.0
Other comprehensive income (loss)(2,842.7)(891.0)587.3
Comprehensive income (loss)(2,121.2)2,459.96,291.9
Computation of Earnings Per Common Share   
Net income721.53,350.95,704.6
Less: Preferred share dividends26.926.926.9
Net income available to common shareholders$ 694.6$ 3,324.0$ 5,677.7
Average common shares outstanding - Basic584.4584.5584.9
Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation2.72.62.7
Total average equivalent common shares - Diluted587.1587.1587.6
Basic: Earnings per share (usd per share)$ 1.19$ 5.69$ 9.71
Diluted: Earnings per share (usd per share)$ 1.18$ 5.66$ 9.66
[1]See Note 15 – Goodwill and Intangible Assets for further discussion.

PGR Balance Sheet

2022-12-31
Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($)
$ in Millions
Dec. 31, 2022
Dec. 31, 2021
Available-for-sale securities, at fair value:  
Fixed maturities (amortized cost: $50,264.0 and $43,794.2)$ 46,651.9$ 43,873.1
Short-term investments (amortized cost: $2,861.7 and $942.6)2,861.7942.6
Total available-for-sale securities49,513.644,815.7
Equity securities, at fair value:  
Nonredeemable preferred stocks (cost: $1,364.2 and $1,571.8)1,213.21,639.9
Common equities (cost: $826.1 and $1,264.1)2,821.55,058.5
Total equity securities4,034.76,698.4
Total investments53,548.351,514.1
Cash and cash equivalents203.5187.1
Restricted cash and cash equivalents17.415.0
Total cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and restricted cash equivalents220.9202.1
Accrued investment income282.5181.7
Premiums receivable, net of allowance for credit losses of $343.3 and $280.410,416.99,399.5
Reinsurance recoverables5,832.14,980.5
Prepaid reinsurance premiums295.5457.6
Deferred acquisition costs1,544.41,355.6
Property and equipment, net of accumulated depreciation of $1,551.1 and $1,407.41,034.01,137.3
Goodwill[1]227.9452.7
Intangible assets, net of accumulated amortization of $158.6 and $383.886.3117.3
Net federal deferred income taxes1,131.50.0
Other assets844.71,333.9
Total assets75,465.071,132.3
Liabilities  
Unearned premiums17,293.615,615.8
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves30,359.326,164.1
Net federal deferred income taxes0.0152.9
Accounts payable, accrued expenses, and other liabilities[2]5,532.86,069.1
Debt[3]6,388.34,898.8
Total liabilities59,574.052,900.7
Shareholders' Equity  
Serial Preferred Shares, Series B, no par value (cumulative, liquidation preference of $1,000 per share) (authorized, issued, and outstanding 0.5)493.9493.9
Common shares, $1.00 par value (authorized 900.0; issued 797.6, including treasury shares of 212.7 and 213.2)584.9584.4
Paid-in capital1,893.01,772.9
Retained earnings15,721.215,339.7
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss):  
Net unrealized gains (losses) on fixed-maturity securities(2,786.3)56.2
Net unrealized losses on forecasted transactions(14.5)(14.9)
Foreign currency translation adjustment(1.2)(0.6)
Total accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)(2,802.0)40.7
Total shareholders’ equity15,891.018,231.6
Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity$ 75,465.0$ 71,132.3
[1]See Note 15 – Goodwill and Intangible Assets for further discussion.
[2]See Note 1 – Reporting and Accounting Policies for Commitments and Contingencies and Note 12 – Litigation for further discussion.
[3]Consists of long-term debt. See Note 4 – Debt for further discussion.