Progressive Corp Stock Research

Market Summary

USD140.88+0.45

Delayedas of 27 Mar 2023, 11:04 am

0.32%

PGR Alerts

3 major insider sales recently.
Big fall in Revenue (Y/Y)

PGR Stock Price

PGR RSI Chart

PGR Valuation

Market Cap

82.1B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

113.76

Price/Sales (Trailing)

1.65

EV/EBITDA

55.64

Price/Free Cashflow

12.52

PGR Price/Sales (Trailing)

PGR Profitability

EBT Margin

1.86%

Return on Equity

4.54%

Return on Assets

0.96%

Free Cashflow Yield

7.99%

PGR Fundamentals

PGR Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

49.6B

Revenue Y/Y

-11.21%

Revenue Q/Q

6.95%

PGR Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

721.5M

Earnings Y/Y

-14.12%

Earnings Q/Q

565.91%

Price Action

52 Week Range

106.35146.50

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-1.7%

Last 30 days

-1.5%

Last 90 days

8.5%

Trailing 12 Months

23.1%

PGR Financial Health

Debt/Equity

0.39

Debt/Cashflow

1.11

PGR Investor Care

Dividend Yield

0.28%

Dividend/Share (TTM)

0.4

Buy Backs (1Y)

0.03%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

1.18

Peers (Alternatives to Progressive)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
PGR	82.1B	49.6B	-1.45%	23.08%	113.76	1.65	4.00%	-78.47%
TRV	38.3B	36.9B	-11.40%	-9.04%	13.47	1.04	5.94%	-22.39%
AIG	36.1B	56.4B	-21.96%	-24.58%	3.52	0.64	8.41%	9.46%
ALL	27.8B	51.4B	-20.78%	-23.42%	-19.61	0.54	1.63%	-195.35%
RE	24.1B	12.1B	-9.20%	18.91%	40.37	2	1.63%	-56.71%
HIG	23.3B	22.4B	-14.30%	-7.21%	11.93	1.05	-0.13%	-23.26%
Y	11.4B	6.8B	0.57%	29.95%	32.11	0.97	-36.57%	-61.35%
AFG	10.1B	7.0B	-10.40%	-12.63%	11.2	1.43	7.45%	-54.99%
MID-CAP
RNR	8.4B	6.3B	-7.80%	26.66%	-7.88	1.32	21.94%	-2542.77%
ESGR	4.0B	-	-7.41%	-13.46%	-4.15	4.2	-80.45%	-283.49%
SMALL-CAP
HMN	1.4B	1.4B	-10.42%	-18.96%	-523.07	0.98	3.97%	-101.82%
PLMR	1.3B	327.1M	-8.98%	-16.27%	25.76	4.11	39.88%	13.79%
PRA	961.6M	1.1B	-8.24%	-30.70%	-2.4K	0.87	-1.58%	-100.28%
JRVR	776.0M	813.7M	-6.42%	-3.67%	25.05	0.95	5.28%	117.92%

Financials for Progressive

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	-3.3%	49,611	51,323	50,289	49,123	47,702
EBITDA	-10.1%	1,471	1,636	1,620	3,237	-
EBITDA Margin	-7.0%	0.03*	0.03*	0.04*	0.07*	-
Earnings Before Taxes	-16.2%	922	1,101	1,097	2,732	4,210
EBT Margin	-13.3%	0.02*	0.02*	0.02*	0.06*	-
Interest Expenses	5.0%	244	232	223	217	219
Net Income	-15.9%	722	857	852	2,185	3,351
Net Income Margin	-12.9%	0.01*	0.02*	0.02*	0.05*	-
Free Cahsflow	8.0%	6,557	6,071	6,434	7,384	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	-0.1%	75,465	75,524	73,057	73,930	71,132
Cash Equivalents	-39.5%	221	365	241	287	202
Net PPE	-3.1%	1,034	1,067	1,125	1,104	1,137
Goodwill	0%	228	228	228	453	453
Liabilities	-1.9%	59,574	60,748	57,405	56,878	52,901
LT Debt, Current	NaN%	-	-	-	-	-
Shareholder's Equity	7.5%	15,891	14,776	15,653	17,051	18,232
Retained Earnings	4.9%	15,721	14,988	14,968	15,570	15,340
Additional Paid-In Capital	2.9%	1,893	1,840	1,815	1,789	1,773
Accumulated Depreciation	3.5%	1,551	1,499	1,513	1,456	1,407
Shares Outstanding	0.0%	585	584	584	-	-

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	7.5%	6,849	6,371	6,715	7,650	7,762
Cashflow From Investing	-22.3%	-7,956	-6,505	-6,280	-7,147	-3,119
Cashflow From Financing	425.5%	1,126	214	-308	-338	-4,516
Dividend Payments	-78.9%	234	1,111	1,111	1,111	3,747

Risks for PGR

What is the probability of a big loss on PGR?

Probability that Progressive stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

Probability that Progressive stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

Probability that Progressive stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does PGR drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Progressive was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for PGR

Cumulative Returns on PGR

22.5%

10-Year Cumulative Returns

25.3%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

22.1%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

29.7%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for PGR?

FIve years rolling returns for Progressive.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold PGR recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-15	B. Riley Wealth Advisors, Inc.	added	9.89	184,455	1,007,460	0.03%
2023-03-10	BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO	added	181	8,379,050	12,301,000	0.01%
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	reduced	-0.23	65,226,100	639,193,000	0.70%
2023-03-10	MATHER GROUP, LLC.	added	2.48	133,825	1,065,820	0.02%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	added	11.37	2,470,000	12,633,000	0.06%
2023-03-03	TIAA, FSB	added	0.12	79,151	751,151	-%
2023-03-02	LORING WOLCOTT & COOLIDGE FIDUCIARY ADVISORS LLP/MA	new	-	273,948	273,948	-%
2023-03-02	OLIVER LAGORE VANVALIN INVESTMENT GROUP	reduced	-2.95	8,902	110,902	0.06%
2023-03-01	Willow Creek Wealth Management Inc.	reduced	-7.53	13,000	392,000	0.06%
2023-03-01	Regal Investment Advisors LLC	reduced	-0.77	35,296	366,296	0.04%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying PGR calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own PGR

No. of Funds

Progressive News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Progressive

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	8.64%	50,562,142	SC 13G/A
Jan 31, 2023	blackrock inc.	7.4%	43,452,644	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2022	vanguard group inc	8.08%	47,203,179	SC 13G/A
Feb 04, 2022	wellington management group llp	4.84%	28,261,623	SC 13G/A
Feb 01, 2022	blackrock inc.	7.8%	45,790,327	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2021	vanguard group inc	8.25%	48,263,533	SC 13G/A
Feb 04, 2021	wellington management group llp	5.81%	34,012,839	SC 13G/A
Jan 29, 2021	blackrock inc.	7.5%	44,189,367	SC 13G/A
Feb 12, 2020	vanguard group inc	8.17%	47,814,893	SC 13G/A
Feb 05, 2020	blackrock inc.	7.2%	42,015,810	SC 13G/A

PGR Fair Value

Progressive fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Progressive for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -
Current Inflation	104.79 -25.62%	132.82 -5.72%	185.89 31.95%	247.08 75.38%	279.88 98.67%
Very High Inflation	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -

Historical Progressive Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Progressive

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 24, 2023	144	Notice of Insider Sale Intent
Mar 24, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 24, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 24, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 24, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 24, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 24, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 24, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 24, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 24, 2023	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for PGR

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-22	Johnson Devin C	sold	-70,091	140	-500	-
2023-03-16	Marshall Mariann Wojtkun	sold	-65,388	138	-471	chief accounting officer
2023-02-24	Broz Steven	sold	-131,725	141	-930	chief information officer
2023-02-24	Mascaro Daniel P	sold	-397,442	141	-2,806	vice pres, secretary and clo
2023-02-22	Griffith Susan Patricia	sold	-2,207,070	142	-15,473	president and ceo
2023-02-21	Griffith Susan Patricia	acquired	-	-	28,051	president and ceo
2023-02-21	Griffith Susan Patricia	sold (taxes)	-1,790,860	142	-12,578	president and ceo
2023-02-21	Sauerland John P	sold (taxes)	-245,890	142	-1,727	vp and chief financial officer
2023-02-21	Sauerland John P	acquired	-	-	3,840	vp and chief financial officer
2023-02-21	Bauer Jonathan S.	acquired	-	-	6,201	chief investment officer

About Progressive

Susan P. Griffith

www.progressive.com

49100

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles (RV). This segment's products include personal auto insurance; and special lines products, including insurance for motorcycles, ATVs, RVs, watercrafts, snowmobiles, and related products. The Commercial Lines segment provides auto-related primary liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance for autos, vans, pick-up trucks, and dump trucks used by small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks primarily used by regional general freight and expeditor-type businesses, and long-haul operators; dump trucks, log trucks, and garbage trucks used by dirt, sand and gravel, logging, and coal-type businesses; and tow trucks and wreckers used in towing services and gas/service station businesses; as well as non-fleet and airport taxis, and black-car services. The Property segment writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters, as well as offers personal umbrella insurance, and primary and excess flood insurance. The company also offers policy issuance and claims adjusting services; and acts as an agent to homeowner general liability, workers' compensation insurance, and other products. In addition, it provides reinsurance services. The company sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as directly on Internet through mobile devices, and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.

PGR Income Statement

2022-12-31

Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income - USD ($)
shares in Millions, $ in Millions

12 Months Ended

Dec. 31, 2022

Dec. 31, 2021

Dec. 31, 2020

Revenues

Net premiums earned

$ 49,241.2

$ 44,368.7

$ 39,261.6

Investment income

1,260.3

860.9

936.6

Net realized gains (losses) on securities:

Net realized gains (losses) on security sales

196.5

614.3

914.7

Net holding period gains (losses) on securities

(2,100.1)

899.9

715.3

Net impairment losses recognized in earnings

(8.6)

(5.0)

0.0

Debt and Equity Securities, Gain (Loss)

(1,912.2)

1,509.2

1,630.0

Fees and other revenues

722.1

691.8

603.5

Service revenues

299.3

271.4

226.4

Total revenues

49,610.7

47,702.0

42,658.1

Expenses

Losses and loss adjustment expenses

38,122.7

33,627.6

25,121.8

Policy acquisition costs

3,917.0

3,712.8

3,273.2

Other underwriting expenses

5,859.6

5,654.7

5,570.0

Policyholder credit expense

0.0

1,077.4

Investment expenses

24.3

25.5

20.0

Service expenses

296.7

252.8

205.5

Interest expense

243.5

218.6

217.0

Goodwill impairment

^[1]

224.8

0.0

Total expenses

48,688.6

43,492.0

35,484.9

Net Income

Income before income taxes

922.1

4,210.0

7,173.2

Provision for income taxes

200.6

859.1

1,468.6

Net income

721.5

3,350.9

5,704.6

Changes in:

Total net unrealized gains (losses) on fixed-maturity securities

(2,842.5)

(891.1)

586.5

Net unrealized losses on forecasted transactions

0.4

0.7

0.8

Foreign currency translation adjustment

(0.6)

0.0

Other comprehensive income (loss)

(2,842.7)

(891.0)

587.3

Comprehensive income (loss)

(2,121.2)

2,459.9

6,291.9

Computation of Earnings Per Common Share

Net income

721.5

3,350.9

5,704.6

Less: Preferred share dividends

26.9

Net income available to common shareholders

$ 694.6

$ 3,324.0

$ 5,677.7

Average common shares outstanding - Basic

584.4

584.5

584.9

Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation

2.7

2.6

2.7

Total average equivalent common shares - Diluted

587.1

587.6

Basic: Earnings per share (usd per share)

$ 1.19

$ 5.69

$ 9.71

Diluted: Earnings per share (usd per share)

$ 1.18

$ 5.66

$ 9.66

[1]	See Note 15 – Goodwill and Intangible Assets for further discussion.

PGR Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($)
$ in Millions

Dec. 31, 2022

Dec. 31, 2021

Available-for-sale securities, at fair value:

Fixed maturities (amortized cost: $50,264.0 and $43,794.2)

$ 46,651.9

$ 43,873.1

Short-term investments (amortized cost: $2,861.7 and $942.6)

2,861.7

942.6

Total available-for-sale securities

49,513.6

44,815.7

Equity securities, at fair value:

Nonredeemable preferred stocks (cost: $1,364.2 and $1,571.8)

1,213.2

1,639.9

Common equities (cost: $826.1 and $1,264.1)

2,821.5

5,058.5

Total equity securities

4,034.7

6,698.4

Total investments

53,548.3

51,514.1

Cash and cash equivalents

203.5

187.1

Restricted cash and cash equivalents

17.4

15.0

Total cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and restricted cash equivalents

220.9

202.1

Accrued investment income

282.5

181.7

Premiums receivable, net of allowance for credit losses of $343.3 and $280.4

10,416.9

9,399.5

Reinsurance recoverables

5,832.1

4,980.5

Prepaid reinsurance premiums

295.5

457.6

Deferred acquisition costs

1,544.4

1,355.6

Property and equipment, net of accumulated depreciation of $1,551.1 and $1,407.4

1,034.0

1,137.3

Goodwill

^[1]

227.9

452.7

Intangible assets, net of accumulated amortization of $158.6 and $383.8

86.3

117.3

Net federal deferred income taxes

1,131.5

0.0

Other assets

844.7

1,333.9

Total assets

75,465.0

71,132.3

Liabilities

Unearned premiums

17,293.6

15,615.8

Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves

30,359.3

26,164.1

Net federal deferred income taxes

0.0

152.9

Accounts payable, accrued expenses, and other liabilities

^[2]

5,532.8

6,069.1

Debt

^[3]

6,388.3

4,898.8

Total liabilities

59,574.0

52,900.7

Shareholders' Equity

Serial Preferred Shares, Series B, no par value (cumulative, liquidation preference of $1,000 per share) (authorized, issued, and outstanding 0.5)

493.9

Common shares, $1.00 par value (authorized 900.0; issued 797.6, including treasury shares of 212.7 and 213.2)

584.9

584.4

Paid-in capital

1,893.0

1,772.9

Retained earnings

15,721.2

15,339.7

Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss):

Net unrealized gains (losses) on fixed-maturity securities

(2,786.3)

56.2

Net unrealized losses on forecasted transactions

(14.5)

(14.9)

Foreign currency translation adjustment

(1.2)

(0.6)

Total accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)

(2,802.0)

40.7

Total shareholders’ equity

15,891.0

18,231.6

Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity

$ 75,465.0

$ 71,132.3

[1]	See Note 15 – Goodwill and Intangible Assets for further discussion.
[2]	See Note 1 – Reporting and Accounting Policies for Commitments and Contingencies and Note 12 – Litigation for further discussion.
[3]	Consists of long-term debt. See Note 4 – Debt for further discussion.