Sunrun Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD19.01-0.66

Market Closed

-3.36%

RUN Alerts

6 major insider sales recently.
Big jump in Revenue (Y/Y)
Big jump in Earnings (Y/Y)

RUN Stock Price

RUN RSI Chart

RUN Valuation

Market Cap

4.1B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

23.48

Price/Sales (Trailing)

1.75

EV/EBITDA

-119.74

Price/Free Cashflow

-4.7

RUN Price/Sales (Trailing)

RUN Profitability

EBT Margin

-36.50%

Return on Equity

2.58%

Return on Assets

0.9%

Free Cashflow Yield

-21.29%

RUN Fundamentals

RUN Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

2.3B

Revenue Y/Y

39.96%

Revenue Q/Q

-3.6%

RUN Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

173.4M

Earnings Y/Y

263.61%

Earnings Q/Q

-70.07%

Price Action

52 Week Range

16.8039.13

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

-18.9%

Last 30 days

-16.1%

Last 90 days

-37.2%

Trailing 12 Months

-30.7%

RUN Financial Health

Current Ratio

1.82

Debt/Equity

1.25

Debt/Cashflow

-0.1

RUN Investor Care

Shares Dilution (1Y)

2.89%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

0.8

Peers (Alternatives to Sunrun)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
ETN	65.4B	20.8B	-8.63%	7.74%	26.56	3.15	5.73%	14.83%
EMR	46.8B	18.5B	-6.78%	-11.52%	10.03	2.53	7.53%	69.43%
ROK	32.4B	7.9B	-5.83%	7.55%	30.13	4.11	8.16%	6.80%
HUBB	13.0B	4.9B	-4.48%	28.51%	23.77	2.62	17.97%	43.13%
MID-CAP
NVT	7.1B	2.9B	-9.39%	21.67%	17.64	2.42	18.16%	46.50%
PLUG	6.8B	701.4M	-23.72%	-48.90%	-9.42	9.72	39.63%	-57.41%
AYI	6.1B	4.1B	-3.18%	0.72%	16.42	1.5	13.43%	11.07%
RUN	4.1B	2.3B	-16.08%	-30.67%	23.48	1.75	44.19%	318.30%
WIRE	3.3B	3.0B	0.51%	37.67%	4.64	1.1	16.39%	32.58%
SMALL-CAP
FCEL	1.3B	135.8M	-12.14%	-48.21%	-10.39	9.23	56.94%	-26.12%
AZZ	974.4M	1.6B	-3.24%	-17.81%	-30.06	0.61	131.42%	-141.26%
TPIC	531.0M	1.5B	-5.88%	-6.24%	-8.13	0.35	3.42%	59.07%
BW	488.4M	832.2M	-17.61%	-37.80%	3.4K	0.59	22.22%	-97.55%
SVT	25.8M	43.9M	-8.22%	-26.62%	-15.06	0.59	8.24%	-142.95%

Financials for Sunrun

Income Statement (Last 12 Months)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	8.1%	2,321,422,000	2,147,499,000	1,954,358,000	1,770,944,000	1,609,954,000
S&GA Expenses	1.1%	745,386,000	737,133,000	714,603,000	671,774,000	622,961,000
R&D Expenses	-10.4%	20,907,000	23,335,000	24,539,000	23,550,000	23,165,000
EBITDA	16.8%	-96,190,000	-115,681,000	-226,601,000	-282,320,000	-
EBITDA Margin	23.1%	-0.04	-0.05	-0.12	-0.16	-
Earnings Before Taxes	-4.0%	-847,354,000	-814,868,000	-890,715,000	-912,557,000	-971,259,000
EBT Margin	3.8%	-0.37	-0.38	-0.46	-0.52	-
Interest Expenses	13.2%	300,118,000	265,236,000	249,927,000	238,232,000	225,250,000
Net Income	141.3%	173,377,000	71,837,000	-114,594,000	-143,412,000	-79,423,000
Net Income Margin	123.3%	0.07	0.03	-0.06	-0.08	-
Free Cahsflow	-4.1%	-866,996,000	-833,233,000	-923,050,000	-902,956,000	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	3.8%	19,269	18,568	17,801	17,255	16,483
Current Assets	11.6%	2,098	1,880	1,710	1,709	1,548
Cash Equivalents	-0.3%	953	956	863	863	850
Inventory	33.1%	784	589	547	556	507
Goodwill	0%	4,280	4,280	4,280	4,280	4,280
Liabilities	5.5%	11,090	10,515	9,988	9,574	8,911
Current Liabilities	6.7%	1,155	1,083	991	1,070	1,012
Long Term Debt	5.2%	8,399	7,985	7,603	7,139	6,503
Shareholder's Equity	1.4%	6,708	6,619	7,173	7,051	6,255
Retained Earnings	58.5%	171	108	-102	-90.36	-2.58
Additional Paid-In Capital	0.6%	6,470	6,432	6,404	6,359	6,330
Shares Outstanding	0.6%	214	213	212	209	208
Minority Interest	4.4%	861	825	826	786	723

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	-2.8%	-848	-825	-915	-887	-817
Share Based Compensation	-20.4%	111	139	155	172	211
Cashflow From Investing	-1.5%	-2,086	-2,055	-1,949	-1,831	-1,686
Cashflow From Financing	4.9%	3,037	2,896	2,871	2,768	2,646
Buy Backs	-	0.00	-	-	-	-

Risks for RUN

What is the probability of a big loss on RUN?

100%

Probability that Sunrun stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

78.5%

Probability that Sunrun stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

60.8%

Probability that Sunrun stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does RUN drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Sunrun was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for RUN

Cumulative Returns on RUN

16.8%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

20.8%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

20.7%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for RUN?

FIve years rolling returns for Sunrun.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold RUN recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	reduced	-2.59	-194,124	1,080,880	-%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	reduced	-40.15	-2,494,000	2,712,000	0.01%
2023-03-02	LORING WOLCOTT & COOLIDGE FIDUCIARY ADVISORS LLP/MA	new	-	435,028	435,028	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	added	0.5	-1,902,970	13,315,000	0.02%
2023-02-27	Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P.	reduced	-30.7	-3,035,410	4,615,590	0.01%
2023-02-24	NATIXIS	added	60.02	2,644,390	10,201,400	0.06%
2023-02-22	CVA Family Office, LLC	reduced	-55.56	-4,118	2,882	-%
2023-02-22	TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY	unchanged	-	-115,000	769,000	0.01%
2023-02-21	NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO	reduced	-2.39	-61,954	353,046	-%
2023-02-21	MACQUARIE GROUP LTD	added	0.88	-1,890,000	13,228,000	0.02%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying RUN calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own RUN

No. of Funds

Sunrun News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Sunrun

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 14, 2023	orbis investment management ltd	5.7%	12,032,777	SC 13G
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	8.87%	18,897,702	SC 13G/A
Jan 27, 2023	blackrock inc.	14.6%	31,038,979	SC 13G/A
Jan 23, 2023	blackrock inc.	14.6%	31,066,329	SC 13G/A
Mar 11, 2022	blackrock inc.	14.3%	29,653,775	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2022	coatue management llc	1.9%	3,960,982	SC 13G/A
Feb 10, 2022	fmr llc	-	0	SC 13G/A
Feb 08, 2022	blackrock inc.	14.3%	29,653,775	SC 13G
Jan 10, 2022	fmr llc	-	0	SC 13G/A
Feb 16, 2021	blackstone holdings iii l.p.	0.0%	0	SC 13G/A

RUN Fair Value

Sunrun fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Sunrun for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	24.95 31.25%	32.09 68.81%	51.28 169.75%	75.96 299.58%	113.86 498.95%
Current Inflation	23.57 23.99%	29.79 56.71%	46.35 143.82%	67.37 254.39%	99.67 424.30%
Very High Inflation	21.85 14.94%	26.97 41.87%	40.47 112.89%	57.29 201.37%	83.15 337.40%

Historical Sunrun Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Sunrun

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 08, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 08, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 08, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 08, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 08, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 08, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 08, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 02, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 02, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 02, 2023	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for RUN

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-06	Jurich Lynn Michelle	sold	-71,027	25.5128	-2,784	-
2023-03-06	Powell Mary	sold	-473,098	25.5122	-18,544	chief executive officer
2023-03-06	Dickson Paul S.	sold	-383,700	25.5103	-15,041	chief revenue officer
2023-03-06	Philpot Michelle	sold	-38,571	25.51	-1,512	chief accounting officer
2023-03-06	STEELE JEANNA	sold	-375,607	25.5116	-14,723	chief legal & people officer
2023-03-06	Fenster Edward Harris	sold	-175,689	25.514	-6,886	-
2023-03-06	Abajian Danny	sold	-250,983	25.509	-9,839	chief financial officer
2023-03-01	STEELE JEANNA	acquired	-	-	36,029	chief legal & people officer
2023-03-01	Dickson Paul S.	acquired	-	-	39,319	chief revenue officer
2023-03-01	Abajian Danny	acquired	-	-	39,978	chief financial officer

About Sunrun

Mary G. Powell

www.sunrun.com

11400

Sunrun Inc. engages in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems in the United States. It also sells solar energy systems and products, such as panels and racking; and solar leads generated to customers. In addition, the company offers battery storage along with solar energy systems. Its primary customers are residential homeowners. The company markets and sells its products through direct-to-consumer approach across online, retail, mass media, digital media, canvassing, field marketing, and referral channels, as well as its partner network. Sunrun Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

RUN Income Statement

2022-12-31

Consolidated Statements of Operations - USD ($) shares in Thousands, $ in Thousands	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
Revenue:
Total revenue	$ 2,321,422	$ 1,609,954	$ 922,191
Operating expenses:
Sales and marketing	745,386	622,961	352,299
Research and development	20,907	23,165	19,548
General and administrative	189,247	259,173	266,746
Amortization of intangible assets	5,364	5,370	5,180
Total operating expenses	2,983,614	2,276,141	1,387,299
Loss from operations	(662,192)	(666,187)	(465,108)
Interest expense, net	(445,819)	(327,700)	(230,601)
Other income (expense), net	260,657	22,628	8,188
Loss before income taxes	(847,354)	(971,259)	(687,521)
Income tax expense (benefit)	2,291	9,271	(60,573)
Net loss	(849,645)	(980,530)	(626,948)
Net loss attributable to noncontrolling interests and  redeemable noncontrolling interests	(1,023,022)	(901,107)	(453,554)
Net income (loss) attributable to common stockholders	$ 173,377	$ (79,423)	$ (173,394)
Net income (loss) per share attributable to common stockholders
Basic (in dollars per share)	$ 0.82	$ (0.39)	$ (1.24)
Diluted (in dollars per share)	$ 0.80	$ (0.39)	$ (1.24)
Weighted average shares used to compute net income (loss)  per share attributable to common stockholders
Basic (in shares)	211,347	205,132	139,606
Diluted (in shares)	219,157	205,132	139,606
Customer agreements and incentives
Revenue:
Total revenue	$ 983,047	$ 826,564	$ 484,160
Operating expenses:
Costs	844,162	699,102	385,650
Solar energy systems and product sales
Revenue:
Total revenue	1,338,375	783,390	438,031
Operating expenses:
Costs	$ 1,178,548	$ 666,370	$ 357,876

RUN Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($)
$ in Thousands

Dec. 31, 2022

Dec. 31, 2021

Current assets:

Cash

$ 740,508

$ 617,634

Restricted cash

212,367

232,649

Accounts receivable (net of allowances for credit losses of $13,381 and $11,035 as of December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively)

214,255

146,037

Inventories

783,904

506,819

Prepaid expenses and other current assets

146,609

44,580

Total current assets

2,097,643

1,547,719

Restricted cash

148

Solar energy systems, net

10,988,361

9,459,696

Property and equipment, net

67,439

56,886

Intangible assets, net

7,527

12,891

Goodwill

4,280,169

Other assets

1,827,518

1,125,743

Total assets

^[1]

19,268,805

16,483,252

Current liabilities:

Accounts payable

339,166

288,108

Distributions payable to noncontrolling interests and redeemable noncontrolling interests

32,050

31,582

Accrued expenses and other liabilities

406,466

364,136

Deferred revenue, current portion

183,719

111,739

Deferred grants, current portion

8,252

8,302

Finance lease obligations, current portion

11,444

10,901

Non-recourse debt, current portion

157,810

190,186

Pass-through financing obligation, current portion

16,544

7,166

Total current liabilities

1,155,451

1,012,120

Deferred revenue, net of current portion

912,254

761,872

Deferred grants, net of current portion

201,094

206,615

Finance lease obligations, net of current portion

17,302

11,314

Line of credit

505,158

211,066

Non-recourse debt, net of current portion

7,343,299

5,711,020

Convertible senior notes

392,882

390,618

Pass-through financing obligation, net of current portion

289,011

314,231

Other liabilities

140,290

190,056

Deferred tax liabilities

133,047

101,753

Total liabilities

^[1]

11,089,788

8,910,665

Commitments and contingencies (Note 19)

Redeemable noncontrolling interests

609,702

594,973

Stockholders’ equity:

Preferred stock, $0.0001 par value—authorized, 200,000 shares as of December 31, 2022 and 2021; no shares issued and outstanding as of December 31, 2022 and 2021

Common stock, $0.0001 par value—authorized, 2,000,000 shares as of December 31, 2022 and 2021; issued and outstanding, 214,184 and 208,176 shares as of December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively

Additional paid-in capital

6,470,194

6,330,344

Accumulated other comprehensive loss

67,109

(73,050)

Retained earnings

170,798

(2,579)

Total stockholders’ equity

6,708,122

6,254,736

Noncontrolling interests

861,193

722,878

Total equity

7,569,315

6,977,614

Total liabilities, redeemable noncontrolling interests and total equity

$ 19,268,805

$ 16,483,252

[1]

The Company’s consolidated assets as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 include $10,031,506 and $8,381,220, respectively, in assets of variable interest entities, or “VIEs”, that can only be used to settle obligations of the VIEs. Solar energy systems, net, as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 were $8,968,835 and $7,605,769, respectively; cash as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 were $457,005 and $377,044, respectively; restricted cash as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 were $44,514 and $70,346, respectively; accounts receivable, net as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 were $66,847 and $55,714, respectively; inventories as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 of $193,836 and $93,604, respectively; prepaid expenses and other current assets as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 were $12,698 and $1,519, respectively and other assets as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 were $287,771 and $177,224, respectively. The Company’s consolidated liabilities as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 include $2,227,002 and $2,152,492, respectively, in liabilities of VIEs whose creditors have no recourse to the Company. These liabilities include accounts payable as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 of $36,315 and $26,042, respectively; distributions payable to noncontrolling interests and redeemable noncontrolling interests as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 of $32,051 and $31,582, respectively; accrued expenses and other liabilities as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 of $32,512 and $31,036, respectively; deferred revenue as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 of $621,457 and $530,385, respectively; deferred grants as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 of $0 and $25,634, respectively; non-recourse debt as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 of $1,489,407 and $1,482,608, respectively; and other liabilities as of December 31, 2022 and 2021 of $15,260 and $25,205, respectively.