Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD58.02-0.08

Delayed

-0.14%

OLLI Stock Price

OLLI RSI Chart

OLLI Valuation

Market Cap

3.7B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

38.7

Price/Sales (Trailing)

2.15

EV/EBITDA

24.16

Price/Free Cashflow

-3.7K

OLLI Price/Sales (Trailing)

OLLI Profitability

EBT Margin

7.13%

Return on Equity

7.16%

Return on Assets

4.7%

Free Cashflow Yield

-0.03%

OLLI Fundamentals

OLLI Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

1.7B

Revenue Y/Y

9.02%

Revenue Q/Q

-7.6%

OLLI Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

94.4M

Earnings Y/Y

-0.44%

Earnings Q/Q

63.74%

Price Action

52 Week Range

40.1172.27

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

11.1%

Last 30 days

-2.0%

Last 90 days

25.6%

Trailing 12 Months

34.3%

OLLI Financial Health

Current Ratio

2.83

Debt/Equity

8e-4

Debt/Cashflow

43.06

OLLI Investor Care

Buy Backs (1Y)

2.20%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

1.5

Peers (Alternatives to Ollie Bargain Outlet Holdings)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
TGT	72.5B	109.1B	-4.54%	-25.39%	26.08	0.66	2.94%	-59.98%
DG	46.3B	36.3B	-3.85%	-6.54%	19.65	1.27	6.80%	-3.69%
DLTR	30.7B	27.7B	-3.66%	-11.30%	18.97	1.11	6.47%	17.50%
BURL	13.0B	8.7B	-11.05%	9.12%	56.37	1.49	-6.65%	-43.71%
FIVE	11.1B	2.9B	-3.80%	22.67%	47.99	3.75	8.83%	-12.24%
MID-CAP
LAD	5.8B	28.2B	-15.90%	-32.78%	4.63	0.21	23.46%	18.01%
M	5.7B	24.8B	-16.87%	-34.22%	3.69	0.23	10.06%	66.71%
OLLI	3.7B	1.7B	-1.98%	34.27%	38.7	2.15	-3.66%	-46.77%
KSS	3.6B	18.6B	-25.77%	-64.38%	5.09	0.19	-2.61%	-43.69%
JWN	2.5B	15.7B	-19.90%	-42.70%	7.53	0.16	12.53%	2863.64%
SMALL-CAP
CWH	835.1M	7.0B	-17.01%	-31.09%	6.1	0.12	0.77%	-50.82%
HZO	600.7M	2.3B	-19.83%	-35.33%	3.31	0.26	10.30%	8.61%
ZUMZ	349.3M	1.0B	-27.38%	-56.69%	7.31	0.34	-12.30%	-61.41%
BIG	304.5M	5.7B	-30.62%	-71.97%	-2.05	0.05	-8.11%	-165.69%
PRTS	294.8M	661.6M	-18.86%	-27.99%	-309.98	0.45	13.59%	90.80%

Financials for Ollie Bargain Outlet Holdings

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2021Q4	2021Q3
Revenue	2.8%	1,703	1,657	1,608	1,768	1,799
Gross Profit	2.0%	633	621	640	703	-
S&GA Expenses	2.3%	479	468	460	443	-
EBITDA	0.8%	144	143	171	-	-
EBITDA Margin	-1.9%	0.08*	0.09*	0.10*	-	-
Earnings Before Taxes	0.2%	121	121	150	232	-
EBT Margin	-2.5%	0.07*	0.07*	0.09*	-	-
Interest Expenses	1.4%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	-
Net Income	-0.1%	94.00	95.00	115	177	-
Net Income Margin	-2.8%	0.06*	0.06*	0.07*	-	-
Free Cahsflow	97.1%	-0.99	-33.80	-61.80	-	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	0.5%	2,010	1,999	1,990	1,972	1,947
Current Assets	-1.4%	714	725	731	727	713
Cash Equivalents	-16.5%	182	218	205	247	230
Inventory	6.0%	524	494	517	467	472
Net PPE	7.4%	170	158	150	147	147
Goodwill	0%	445	445	445	445	445
Liabilities	0.7%	692	687	687	684	686
Current Liabilities	-0.8%	252	254	258	263	275
Long Term Debt	4.8%	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00
Shareholder's Equity	0.5%	1,318	1,312	1,302	1,288	1,260
Retained Earnings	2.5%	933	910	896	884	839
Additional Paid-In Capital	0.4%	675	672	666	664	662
Accumulated Depreciation	5.2%	143	136	129	123	116
Shares Outstanding	-0.1%	63.00	63.00	63.00	64.00	-

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	506.6%	43.00	7.00	-26.61	45.00	128
Share Based Compensation	11.4%	9.00	8.00	8.00	8.00	8.00
Cashflow From Investing	-8.3%	-43.94	-40.59	-32.03	-31.83	-31.13
Cashflow From Financing	75.6%	-47.00	-192	-208	-213	-192
Buy Backs	-74.3%	50.00	195	210	220	200

Risks for OLLI

What is the probability of a big loss on OLLI?

87.7%

Probability that Ollie Bargain Outlet Holdings stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

79.2%

Probability that Ollie Bargain Outlet Holdings stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

46.1%

Probability that Ollie Bargain Outlet Holdings stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does OLLI drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Ollie Bargain Outlet Holdings was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for OLLI

Cumulative Returns on OLLI

14.5%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

-0.3%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

10.0%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for OLLI?

FIve years rolling returns for Ollie Bargain Outlet Holdings.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold OLLI recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-23	MetLife Investment Management, LLC	reduced	-1.82	-210,800	1,726,520	0.01%
2023-03-17	American Portfolios Advisors	sold off	-100	-8,813	-	-%
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	reduced	-38.97	-16,202,100	20,122,900	0.02%
2023-03-08	SHEETS SMITH WEALTH MANAGEMENT	unchanged	-	-29,767	295,233	0.05%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	reduced	-15.46	-206,000	679,000	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	added	1.19	-69,191	778,809	-%
2023-02-27	Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P.	added	4.39	-28,540	513,460	-%
2023-02-24	NATIXIS	sold off	-100	-4,259,000	-	-%
2023-02-22	TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY	reduced	-72.77	-1,255,000	412,000	-%
2023-02-21	NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC	reduced	-35.82	-180,673	252,327	0.01%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying OLLI calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own OLLI

No. of Funds

Ollie Bargain Outlet Holdings News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Ollie Bargain Outlet Holdings

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 14, 2023	t. rowe price investment management, inc.	5.8%	3,630,597	SC 13G
Feb 14, 2023	price t rowe associates inc /md/	0.3%	156,128	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	fmr llc	-	0	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	8.71%	5,421,296	SC 13G/A
Feb 08, 2023	wasatch advisors inc	-	0	SC 13G/A
Feb 06, 2023	wellington management group llp	0.01%	4,206	SC 13G/A
Feb 03, 2023	blackrock inc.	8.0%	5,006,831	SC 13G/A
Jan 30, 2023	bank of new york mellon corp	5.00%	3,113,572	SC 13G
Nov 17, 2022	estate of mark l. butler	0%	0	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2022	kayne anderson rudnick investment management llc	10.22%	6,453,636	SC 13G/A

OLLI Fair Value

Ollie Bargain Outlet Holdings fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Ollie Bargain Outlet Holdings for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	37.34 -35.64%	50.22 -13.44%	76.34 31.58%	105.08 81.11%	123.71 113.22%
Current Inflation	34.64 -40.30%	45.77 -21.11%	67.77 16.80%	91.83 58.27%	107.35 85.02%
Very High Inflation	31.29 -46.07%	40.37 -30.42%	57.68 -0.59%	76.51 31.87%	88.55 52.62%

Historical Ollie Bargain Outlet Holdings Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Ollie Bargain Outlet Holdings

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 27, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 27, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 27, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 27, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 27, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 27, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 27, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 27, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 27, 2023	4	Insider Trading
Mar 27, 2023	4	Insider Trading

Latest Insider Trading transactions for OLLI

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-03-22	Kraus Larry	acquired	-	-	458	vp, cio
2023-03-22	McLain Kevin	acquired	-	-	632	svp, merchandising
2023-03-22	Kraus Larry	sold (taxes)	-7,484	58.47	-128	vp, cio
2023-03-22	SWYGERT JOHN W	sold (taxes)	-77,472	58.47	-1,325	president & ceo
2023-03-22	McLain Kevin	sold (taxes)	-10,758	58.47	-184	svp, merchandising
2023-03-22	SWYGERT JOHN W	acquired	-	-	4,649	president & ceo
2023-03-20	McLain Kevin	sold (taxes)	-41,060	52.24	-786	svp, merchandising
2023-03-20	SWYGERT JOHN W	acquired	-	-	1,956	president & ceo
2023-03-20	McLain Kevin	acquired	-	-	2,441	svp, merchandising
2023-03-20	Kraus Larry	sold (taxes)	-29,620	52.24	-567	vp, cio

About Ollie Bargain Outlet Holdings

John W. Swygert

www.ollies.us

9900

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a retailer of brand name merchandise. The company offers housewares, bed and bath, food, floor coverings, health and beauty aids, books and stationery, toys, and electronics; and other products, including hardware, candy, clothing, sporting goods, pet and lawn, and garden products. It provides its products primarily under the Ollie's, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, Good Stuff Cheap, Ollie's Army, Real Brands Real Cheap!, Real Brands! Real Bargains, Sarasota Breeze, Steelton Tools, American Way, and Middleton Home names. As of March 23, 2022, it operated 436 stores in 29 states throughout half of the United States. The company was formerly known as Bargain Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. in March 2015. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

OLLI Income Statement

2023-01-28

Consolidated Statements of Income - USD ($) shares in Thousands, $ in Thousands	12 Months Ended
	Jan. 28, 2023	Jan. 29, 2022	Jan. 30, 2021
Consolidated Statements of Income [Abstract]
Net sales	$ 1,827,009	$ 1,752,995	$ 1,808,821
Cost of sales	1,170,915	1,071,749	1,085,455
Gross profit	656,094	681,246	723,366
Selling, general, and administrative expenses	490,569	447,615	418,889
Depreciation and amortization expenses	22,907	19,364	16,705
Pre-opening expenses	11,700	9,675	10,272
Operating income	130,918	204,592	277,500
Interest (income) expense, net	(2,965)	209	(278)
Income before income taxes	133,883	204,383	277,778
Income tax expense	31,093	46,928	35,082
Net income	$ 102,790	$ 157,455	$ 242,696
Earnings per common share:
Basic (in dollars per share)	$ 1.64	$ 2.44	$ 3.75
Diluted (in dollars per share)	$ 1.64	$ 2.43	$ 3.68
Weighted average common shares outstanding:
Basic (in shares)	62,495	64,447	64,748
Diluted (in shares)	62,704	64,878	65,873

OLLI Balance Sheet

2023-01-28

Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Jan. 28, 2023	Jan. 29, 2022
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 210,596	$ 246,977
Short-term investments	60,165	0
Inventories	470,534	467,306
Accounts receivable	2,374	1,372
Prepaid expenses and other assets	10,627	11,173
Total current assets	754,296	726,828
Property and equipment, net	175,947	147,164
Operating lease right-of-use assets	436,326	420,568
Goodwill	444,850	444,850
Trade name	230,559	230,559
Other assets	2,118	2,203
Total assets	2,044,096	1,972,172
Current liabilities:
Current portion of long-term debt	430	332
Accounts payable	90,204	106,599
Income taxes payable	3,056	2,556
Current portion of operating lease liabilities	88,636	75,535
Accrued expenses and other	76,959	78,246
Total current liabilities	259,285	263,268
Revolving credit facility	0	0
Long-term debt	858	719
Deferred income taxes	70,632	66,179
Long-term operating lease liabilities	351,251	354,293
Other long-term liabilities	1	3
Total liabilities	682,027	684,462
Stockholders' equity:
Preferred stock - 50,000 shares authorized at $0.001 par value; no shares issued	0	0
Common stock - 500,000 shares authorized at $0.001 par value; 66,672 and 66,516 shares issued, respectively	67	67
Additional paid-in capital	677,694	664,293
Retained earnings	986,512	883,722
Treasury - common stock, at cost; 4,663 and 3,816 shares, respectively	(302,204)	(260,372)
Total stockholders' equity	1,362,069	1,287,710
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity	$ 2,044,096	$ 1,972,172