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Hostess Brands Inc Stock Research

TWNK

24.88USD+0.45(+1.84%)Market Closed

Market Summary

USD24.88+0.45
Market Closed
1.84%

TWNK Stock Price

TWNK RSI Chart

TWNK Valuation

Market Cap

3.3B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

20.39

Price/Sales (Trailing)

2.47

EV/EBITDA

13.6

Price/Free Cashflow

25.87

TWNK Price/Sales (Trailing)

TWNK Profitability

EBT Margin

15.56%

Return on Equity

9.14%

Return on Assets

4.7%

Free Cashflow Yield

3.87%

TWNK Fundamentals

TWNK Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

1.4B

Revenue Y/Y

14.23%

Revenue Q/Q

-1.95%

TWNK Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

164.2M

Earnings Y/Y

-9.95%

Earnings Q/Q

-50.37%

Price Action

52 Week Range

19.0029.00
(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

1.2%

Last 30 days

1.6%

Last 90 days

10.9%

Trailing 12 Months

13.4%

TWNK Financial Health

Current Ratio

1.64

Debt/Equity

0.56

Debt/Cashflow

0.25

TWNK Investor Care

Shares Dilution (1Y)

3.64%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

1.19

Peers (Alternatives to Hostess Brands)

View All Peers In Detail
NameMkt Capsorted ascendingRevenuePrice %, 1MReturns, 1YP/EP/SRev 1-YrInc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
95.2B
31.5B
8.62% 12.43%
35.04
3.02
9.67% -36.81%
47.8B
19.4B
8.38% 28.93%
16.42
2.47
4.08% 30.06%
44.7B
101.6B
0.53% -10.05%
10.3
0.44
19.13% 60.21%
24.6B
12.4B
-9.01% -21.38%
24.65
1.98
3.48% 5.62%
15.1B
4.5B
3.60% 76.14%
31.78
3.34
15.82% 144.25%
MID-CAP
5.5B
17.5B
-2.28% -7.65%
7.35
0.31
18.21% 2306.23%
3.3B
1.4B
1.55% 13.40%
20.39
2.47
18.93% 37.63%
3.2B
595.3M
3.66% -35.51%
-53.44
5.34
39.92% -100.32%
3.0B
2.5B
6.75% 13.77%
6.25
1.17
78.76% 6370.72%
SMALL-CAP
1.2B
934.7M
0.52% 53.39%
1.2K
1.33
15.02% -112.66%
1.0B
418.9M
-4.19% -66.40%
-2.83
2.47
-9.85% -101.06%
248.0M
187.5M
7.09% -7.89%
-2.48
1.32
9.54% -221.06%
107.5M
538.3M
-17.42% -64.25%
-1.83
0.2
8.97% -70885.54%
80.8M
-
-42.31% -57.81%
-33.87
0.49
- -

Financials for Hostess Brands

Income Statement (Last 12 Months)
(In Millions)
* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Revenue3.2%1,3581,3161,2581,2091,142
Gross Profit2.5%466454438430410
Operating Expenses3.8%245236228218209
  S&GA Expenses2.3%41.0040.0038.0037.0036.00
EBITDA1.0%312309265263-
EBITDA Margin-2.1%0.23*0.23*0.21*0.22*-
Earnings Before Taxes-0.1%211211171171160
EBT Margin-3.2%0.16*0.16*0.14*0.14*-
Interest Expenses3.6%41.0040.0039.0039.0040.00
Net Income-14.2%164191151145119
Net Income Margin-16.9%0.12*0.15*0.10*0.11*-
Free Cahsflow-5.5%129137126128-
Balance Sheet
(In Millions)
* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Assets-3.0%3,4923,6003,5293,5403,466
  Current Assets-27.9%367509478498461
    Cash Equivalents-48.3%99.00191207238249
  Inventory-0.1%65.0065.0061.0060.0053.00
  Net PPE10.4%425385359354335
  Goodwill0.0%707707707707707
Liabilities-6.0%1,6951,8031,7681,7791,747
  Current Liabilities-8.3%224245212215194
  Long Term Debt-8.2%9991,0891,0931,0971,100
Shareholder's Equity0.0%1,7971,7971,7611,7611,719
  Retained Earnings5.4%640607540510475
  Additional Paid-In Capital0.3%1,3121,3081,3051,3021,303
Shares Outstanding-1.4%135136138138-
Cashflow (Last 12 Months)
(In Millions)
Description(%) Q/Q2022Q42022Q32022Q22022Q12021Q4
Cashflow From Operations13.3%249220203202203
  Share Based Compensation2.7%10.0010.0010.009.0010.00
Cashflow From Investing-10.0%-147-134-106-79.40-65.42
Cashflow From Financing-107.6%-249-120-108-81.47-61.25
  Buy Backs33.9%13097.0085.0063.0053.00

Risks for TWNK

What is the probability of a big loss on TWNK?

48.9%


Probability that Hostess Brands stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

31.1%


Probability that Hostess Brands stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

0%


Probability that Hostess Brands stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.
*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does TWNK drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Hostess Brands was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for TWNK

Cumulative Returns on TWNK

14.3%


7-Year Cumulative Returns

11.0%


5-Year Cumulative Returns

32.7%


3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for TWNK?

FIve years rolling returns for Hostess Brands.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold TWNK recently?

View All Details
Datesorted ascendingFund NameType% Chg$ Change$ Held% Portfolio
2023-03-29
Diametric Capital, LP
reduced
-65.9
-885,866
435,134
0.21%
2023-03-23
MetLife Investment Management, LLC
reduced
-5.41
-148,959
1,570,760
0.01%
2023-03-17
American Portfolios Advisors
new
-
33,768
33,768
-%
2023-03-10
VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC
reduced
-78.47
-15,965,000
4,191,030
-%
2023-03-06
Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.
added
6.76
2,000
52,000
-%
2023-02-28
Voya Investment Management LLC
added
656
17,336,900
20,088,900
0.03%
2023-02-27
Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P.
sold off
-100
-236,000
-
-%
2023-02-22
TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY
added
3.66
1,000
941,000
0.01%
2023-02-21
NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO
unchanged
-
-631
17,369
-%
2023-02-21
MACQUARIE GROUP LTD
reduced
-44.84
-3,049,000
3,454,000
-%

1–10 of 44

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying TWNK calls or puts?
Calls
Puts
Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?
Net Call Options
No. of funds that own TWNK
No. of Funds

Hostess Brands News

Nasdaq

Look Under The Hood: VDC Has 12% Upside.

Nasdaq,
2 days ago

InvestorPlace

The Motley Fool

Westfair Online

Hostess to debut Kazbars snack cakes.

Westfair Online,
30 days ago

Schedule 13G FIlings of Hostess Brands

Date FiledName of FilerPercent of ClassNo. of SharesForm Type
Feb 13, 2023
champlain investment partners, llc
2.31%
3,088,800
SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023
janus henderson group plc
3.7%
4,898,377
SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023
vanguard group inc
11.86%
15,873,715
SC 13G/A
Feb 01, 2023
blackrock inc.
17.0%
22,762,797
SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2022
cardinal capital management llc /ct
1.1%
1,539,413
SC 13G/A
Feb 11, 2022
champlain investment partners, llc
7.00%
9,692,760
SC 13G/A
Feb 11, 2022
janus henderson group plc
5.1%
7,012,661
SC 13G
Feb 09, 2022
blackrock inc.
17.6%
24,417,804
SC 13G/A
Feb 08, 2022
dimensional fund advisors lp
5.9%
8,158,104
SC 13G/A
Feb 04, 2022
millennium management llc
2.2%
3,080,303
SC 13G

TWNK Fair Value

Hostess Brands fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Hostess Brands for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.
Fair ValueVery PessimisticPessimisticBase CaseOptimisticVery Optimistic
Very Low Inflation

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-
Current Inflation

18.72

-24.76%

22.39

-10.01%

28.76

15.59%

35.88

44.21%

44.52

78.94%
Very High Inflation

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Historical Hostess Brands Fair Value Estimates


Very Pessimistic Case
Pessimistic Case
Fair Value
Optimistic Case
Very Optimistic Case
Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Hostess Brands

View All Filings
Date Filed Form Type Document
Mar 15, 2023
8-K
Current Report
Feb 23, 2023
144
Notice of Insider Sale Intent
Feb 22, 2023
8-K
Current Report
Feb 21, 2023
10-K
Annual Report
Feb 21, 2023
8-K
Current Report
Feb 13, 2023
SC 13G/A
Major Ownership Report
Feb 10, 2023
SC 13G/A
Major Ownership Report
Feb 09, 2023
SC 13G/A
Major Ownership Report
Feb 09, 2023
SC 13G/A
Major Ownership Report
Feb 01, 2023
SC 13G/A
Major Ownership Report

Latest Insider Trading transactions for TWNK

Filter Transactions
Datesorted ascendingNameBuy/Sell$ ValueAvg. Price# SharesTitle
2023-01-24
Sebree Jolyn Jenssen
sold (taxes)
-69,181
21.81
-3,172
see remarks
2023-01-24
Mastorides Arist
sold (taxes)
-74,459
21.81
-3,414
see remarks
2023-01-24
Riley Darryl Patrick
sold (taxes)
-33,085
21.81
-1,517
see remarks
2023-01-24
Callahan Andrew P
sold (taxes)
-454,084
21.81
-20,820
see remarks
2023-01-24
O'Leary Daniel James
sold (taxes)
-40,283
21.81
-1,847
see remarks
2023-01-24
Cramer Michael John
sold (taxes)
-29,072
21.81
-1,333
see remarks
2023-01-24
Weber Robert Chisholm
sold (taxes)
-46,695
21.81
-2,141
see remarks
2023-01-19
Callahan Andrew P
sold (taxes)
-1,980,870
22.9776
-86,209
see remarks
2023-01-19
Sebree Jolyn Jenssen
sold (taxes)
68,331
22.93
2,980
see remarks
2023-01-19
Weber Robert Chisholm
sold (taxes)
-226,918
22.9767
-9,876
see remarks

1–10 of 50

Andrew P. Callahan
2600
Hostess Brands, Inc., a packaged food company, develops, manufactures, markets, sells, and distributes snack products in the United States. The company provides a range of snack cakes, donuts, sweet rolls, breakfast pastries, cookies, snack pies, sweet baked goods, wafers, bread and buns, danishes, honey buns, coffee cakes, and sugar-free products. It offers its products under the Hostess, Dolly Madison, Cloverhill, Big Texas, Voortman, CupCakes, Twinkies, Donettes, Ding Dongs, Zingers, Ho Hos, and Big Texas brands. The company was formerly known as Gores Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Hostess Brands, Inc. in November 2016. Hostess Brands, Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Lenexa, Kansas.

TWNK Income Statement

2022-12-31
Consolidated Statements of Operations - USD ($)
$ in Thousands
12 Months Ended
Dec. 31, 2022
Dec. 31, 2021
Dec. 31, 2020
Income Statement [Abstract]   
Net revenue$ 1,358,207$ 1,142,036$ 1,016,609
Cost of goods sold892,528732,053660,970
Gross profit465,679409,983355,639
Operating costs and expenses:   
Advertising and marketing62,75451,68345,724
Selling40,54236,28846,729
General and administrative119,45399,17392,860
Amortization of customer relationships23,51223,51026,510
Business combination transaction costs004,282
Tax receivable agreement remeasurement(860)(1,409)760
Other operating expense003,464
Total operating costs and expenses245,401209,245220,329
Operating income220,278200,738135,310
Other (income) expense:   
Interest expense, net40,95039,76242,826
Change in fair value of warrant liabilities0(566)(39,941)
Other expense (income)(31,956)1,7303,723
Total other expense8,99440,9266,608
Income before income taxes211,284159,812128,702
Income tax expense47,08940,51320,405
Net income164,195119,299108,297
Less: Net income attributable to the non-controlling interest003,621
Net income attributable to Class A stockholders$ 164,195$ 119,299$ 104,676
Earnings per Class A share:   
Basic (usd per share)$ 1.20$ 0.91$ 0.84
Diluted (usd per share)$ 1.19$ 0.86$ 0.51
Weighted-average shares outstanding:   
Basic (shares)136,768,310131,571,733124,927,535
Diluted (shares)137,924,471138,198,176127,723,488

TWNK Balance Sheet

2022-12-31
Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($)
$ in Thousands
Dec. 31, 2022
Dec. 31, 2021
Current assets:  
Cash and cash equivalents$ 98,584$ 249,159
Short-term investments17,9140
Accounts receivable, net168,783148,180
Inventories65,40652,813
Prepaids and other current assets16,37510,564
Total current assets367,062460,716
Property and equipment, net425,313335,305
Intangible assets, net1,920,8801,944,392
Goodwill706,615706,615
Other assets, net72,32919,283
Total assets3,492,1993,466,311
Current liabilities:  
Long-term debt and lease obligations payable within one year3,91714,170
Tax receivable agreement obligations payable within one year12,60011,600
Accounts payable85,66768,104
Customer trade allowances62,19452,746
Accrued expenses and other current liabilities59,93347,009
Total current liabilities224,311193,629
Long-term debt and lease obligations999,0891,099,975
Tax receivable agreement obligations123,092134,265
Deferred tax liability347,030317,847
Other long-term liabilities1,5931,605
Total liabilities1,695,1151,747,321
Commitments and Contingencies (Note 14)
Additional paid in capital1,311,6291,303,254
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)35,078(506)
Retained earnings639,595475,400
Treasury stock(189,232)(59,172)
Stockholders’ equity1,797,0841,718,990
Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity3,492,1993,466,311
Common Class A  
Current liabilities:  
Common stock$ 14$ 14