Hostess Brands Inc Stock Research

Market Summary

USD24.88+0.45

Market Closed

1.84%

TWNK Stock Price

TWNK RSI Chart

TWNK Valuation

Market Cap

3.3B

Price/Earnings (Trailing)

20.39

Price/Sales (Trailing)

2.47

EV/EBITDA

13.6

Price/Free Cashflow

25.87

TWNK Price/Sales (Trailing)

TWNK Profitability

EBT Margin

15.56%

Return on Equity

9.14%

Return on Assets

4.7%

Free Cashflow Yield

3.87%

TWNK Fundamentals

TWNK Revenue

Revenue (TTM)

1.4B

Revenue Y/Y

14.23%

Revenue Q/Q

-1.95%

TWNK Earnings

Earnings (TTM)

164.2M

Earnings Y/Y

-9.95%

Earnings Q/Q

-50.37%

Price Action

52 Week Range

19.0029.00

(Low)(High)

Last 7 days

1.2%

Last 30 days

1.6%

Last 90 days

10.9%

Trailing 12 Months

13.4%

TWNK Financial Health

Current Ratio

1.64

Debt/Equity

0.56

Debt/Cashflow

0.25

TWNK Investor Care

Shares Dilution (1Y)

3.64%

Diluted EPS (TTM)

1.19

Peers (Alternatives to Hostess Brands)

View All Peers In Detail

Name	Mkt Capsorted ascending	Revenue	Price %, 1M	Returns, 1Y	P/E	P/S	Rev 1-Yr	Inc 1-Yr
LARGE-CAP
MDLZ	95.2B	31.5B	8.62%	12.43%	35.04	3.02	9.67%	-36.81%
GIS	47.8B	19.4B	8.38%	28.93%	16.42	2.47	4.08%	30.06%
ADM	44.7B	101.6B	0.53%	-10.05%	10.3	0.44	19.13%	60.21%
HRL	24.6B	12.4B	-9.01%	-21.38%	24.65	1.98	3.48%	5.62%
LW	15.1B	4.5B	3.60%	76.14%	31.78	3.34	15.82%	144.25%
MID-CAP
PPC	5.5B	17.5B	-2.28%	-7.65%	7.35	0.31	18.21%	2306.23%
TWNK	3.3B	1.4B	1.55%	13.40%	20.39	2.47	18.93%	37.63%
FRPT	3.2B	595.3M	3.66%	-35.51%	-53.44	5.34	39.92%	-100.32%
CALM	3.0B	2.5B	6.75%	13.77%	6.25	1.17	78.76%	6370.72%
SMALL-CAP
STKL	1.2B	934.7M	0.52%	53.39%	1.2K	1.33	15.02%	-112.66%
BYND	1.0B	418.9M	-4.19%	-66.40%	-2.83	2.47	-9.85%	-101.06%
LNDC	248.0M	187.5M	7.09%	-7.89%	-2.48	1.32	9.54%	-221.06%
FREE	107.5M	538.3M	-17.42%	-64.25%	-1.83	0.2	8.97%	-70885.54%
PME	80.8M	-	-42.31%	-57.81%	-33.87	0.49	-	-

Financials for Hostess Brands

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Income Statement (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Revenue	3.2%	1,358	1,316	1,258	1,209	1,142
Gross Profit	2.5%	466	454	438	430	410
Operating Expenses	3.8%	245	236	228	218	209
S&GA Expenses	2.3%	41.00	40.00	38.00	37.00	36.00
EBITDA	1.0%	312	309	265	263	-
EBITDA Margin	-2.1%	0.23*	0.23*	0.21*	0.22*	-
Earnings Before Taxes	-0.1%	211	211	171	171	160
EBT Margin	-3.2%	0.16*	0.16*	0.14*	0.14*	-
Interest Expenses	3.6%	41.00	40.00	39.00	39.00	40.00
Net Income	-14.2%	164	191	151	145	119
Net Income Margin	-16.9%	0.12*	0.15*	0.10*	0.11*	-
Free Cahsflow	-5.5%	129	137	126	128	-

* denotes actual numbers (not divided by Millions)
Balance Sheet					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Assets	-3.0%	3,492	3,600	3,529	3,540	3,466
Current Assets	-27.9%	367	509	478	498	461
Cash Equivalents	-48.3%	99.00	191	207	238	249
Inventory	-0.1%	65.00	65.00	61.00	60.00	53.00
Net PPE	10.4%	425	385	359	354	335
Goodwill	0.0%	707	707	707	707	707
Liabilities	-6.0%	1,695	1,803	1,768	1,779	1,747
Current Liabilities	-8.3%	224	245	212	215	194
Long Term Debt	-8.2%	999	1,089	1,093	1,097	1,100
Shareholder's Equity	0.0%	1,797	1,797	1,761	1,761	1,719
Retained Earnings	5.4%	640	607	540	510	475
Additional Paid-In Capital	0.3%	1,312	1,308	1,305	1,302	1,303
Shares Outstanding	-1.4%	135	136	138	138	-

Cashflow (Last 12 Months)					(In Millions)
Description	(%) Q/Q	2022Q4	2022Q3	2022Q2	2022Q1	2021Q4
Cashflow From Operations	13.3%	249	220	203	202	203
Share Based Compensation	2.7%	10.00	10.00	10.00	9.00	10.00
Cashflow From Investing	-10.0%	-147	-134	-106	-79.40	-65.42
Cashflow From Financing	-107.6%	-249	-120	-108	-81.47	-61.25
Buy Backs	33.9%	130	97.00	85.00	63.00	53.00

Risks for TWNK

What is the probability of a big loss on TWNK?

48.9%

Probability that Hostess Brands stock will be more than 20% underwater in next one year

31.1%

Probability that Hostess Brands stock will be more than 30% underwater in next one year.

Probability that Hostess Brands stock will be more than 40% underwater in next one year.

*Calculated based on probability distribution of losses observed in actual data in the last 5 years.

How does TWNK drawdown profile look like?

Y-axis is the maximum loss one would have experienced if Hostess Brands was unfortunately bought at previous high price.

Drawdowns

Returns for TWNK

Cumulative Returns on TWNK

14.3%

7-Year Cumulative Returns

11.0%

5-Year Cumulative Returns

32.7%

3-Year Cumulative Returns

What are the long-term rolling returns for TWNK?

FIve years rolling returns for Hostess Brands.

Annualized Returns

Which funds bought or sold TWNK recently?

View All Details

Datesorted ascending	Fund Name	Type	% Chg	$ Change	$ Held	% Portfolio
2023-03-29	Diametric Capital, LP	reduced	-65.9	-885,866	435,134	0.21%
2023-03-23	MetLife Investment Management, LLC	reduced	-5.41	-148,959	1,570,760	0.01%
2023-03-17	American Portfolios Advisors	new	-	33,768	33,768	-%
2023-03-10	VICTORY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC	reduced	-78.47	-15,965,000	4,191,030	-%
2023-03-06	Rockefeller Capital Management L.P.	added	6.76	2,000	52,000	-%
2023-02-28	Voya Investment Management LLC	added	656	17,336,900	20,088,900	0.03%
2023-02-27	Parallax Volatility Advisers, L.P.	sold off	-100	-236,000	-	-%
2023-02-22	TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF THE STATE OF KENTUCKY	added	3.66	1,000	941,000	0.01%
2023-02-21	NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT CO	unchanged	-	-631	17,369	-%
2023-02-21	MACQUARIE GROUP LTD	reduced	-44.84	-3,049,000	3,454,000	-%

Latest Funds Activity

Are funds buying TWNK calls or puts?

Calls

Puts

Are funds bullish or bearish(Calls - Puts)?

Net Call Options

No. of funds that own TWNK

No. of Funds

Hostess Brands News

Schedule 13G FIlings of Hostess Brands

Date Filed	Name of Filer	Percent of Class	No. of Shares	Form Type
Feb 13, 2023	champlain investment partners, llc	2.31%	3,088,800	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	janus henderson group plc	3.7%	4,898,377	SC 13G/A
Feb 09, 2023	vanguard group inc	11.86%	15,873,715	SC 13G/A
Feb 01, 2023	blackrock inc.	17.0%	22,762,797	SC 13G/A
Feb 14, 2022	cardinal capital management llc /ct	1.1%	1,539,413	SC 13G/A
Feb 11, 2022	champlain investment partners, llc	7.00%	9,692,760	SC 13G/A
Feb 11, 2022	janus henderson group plc	5.1%	7,012,661	SC 13G
Feb 09, 2022	blackrock inc.	17.6%	24,417,804	SC 13G/A
Feb 08, 2022	dimensional fund advisors lp	5.9%	8,158,104	SC 13G/A
Feb 04, 2022	millennium management llc	2.2%	3,080,303	SC 13G

TWNK Fair Value

Hostess Brands fair value in different scenarios

The table shows the Fair Value estimates for Hostess Brands for various scenarios. Disclaimer: These are just estimations from a model. None of the models are good at predicting the future. Please dont buy or sell stocks based on these outputs.

Fair Value	Very Pessimistic	Pessimistic	Base Case	Optimistic	Very Optimistic
Very Low Inflation	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -
Current Inflation	18.72 -24.76%	22.39 -10.01%	28.76 15.59%	35.88 44.21%	44.52 78.94%
Very High Inflation	- -	- -	- -	- -	- -

Historical Hostess Brands Fair Value Estimates

Very Pessimistic Case

Pessimistic Case

Fair Value

Optimistic Case

Very Optimistic Case

Closing Stock Price

Recent SEC filings of Hostess Brands

View All Filings

Date Filed	Form Type	Document
Mar 15, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Feb 23, 2023	144	Notice of Insider Sale Intent
Feb 22, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Feb 21, 2023	10-K	Annual Report
Feb 21, 2023	8-K	Current Report
Feb 13, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 10, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 09, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 09, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report
Feb 01, 2023	SC 13G/A	Major Ownership Report

Latest Insider Trading transactions for TWNK

Filter Transactions

Datesorted ascending	Name	Buy/Sell	$ Value	Avg. Price	# Shares	Title
2023-01-24	Sebree Jolyn Jenssen	sold (taxes)	-69,181	21.81	-3,172	see remarks
2023-01-24	Mastorides Arist	sold (taxes)	-74,459	21.81	-3,414	see remarks
2023-01-24	Riley Darryl Patrick	sold (taxes)	-33,085	21.81	-1,517	see remarks
2023-01-24	Callahan Andrew P	sold (taxes)	-454,084	21.81	-20,820	see remarks
2023-01-24	O'Leary Daniel James	sold (taxes)	-40,283	21.81	-1,847	see remarks
2023-01-24	Cramer Michael John	sold (taxes)	-29,072	21.81	-1,333	see remarks
2023-01-24	Weber Robert Chisholm	sold (taxes)	-46,695	21.81	-2,141	see remarks
2023-01-19	Callahan Andrew P	sold (taxes)	-1,980,870	22.9776	-86,209	see remarks
2023-01-19	Sebree Jolyn Jenssen	sold (taxes)	68,331	22.93	2,980	see remarks
2023-01-19	Weber Robert Chisholm	sold (taxes)	-226,918	22.9767	-9,876	see remarks

About Hostess Brands

Andrew P. Callahan

www.hostessbrands.com

2600

Hostess Brands, Inc., a packaged food company, develops, manufactures, markets, sells, and distributes snack products in the United States. The company provides a range of snack cakes, donuts, sweet rolls, breakfast pastries, cookies, snack pies, sweet baked goods, wafers, bread and buns, danishes, honey buns, coffee cakes, and sugar-free products. It offers its products under the Hostess, Dolly Madison, Cloverhill, Big Texas, Voortman, CupCakes, Twinkies, Donettes, Ding Dongs, Zingers, Ho Hos, and Big Texas brands. The company was formerly known as Gores Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Hostess Brands, Inc. in November 2016. Hostess Brands, Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Lenexa, Kansas.

TWNK Income Statement

2022-12-31

Consolidated Statements of Operations - USD ($) $ in Thousands	12 Months Ended
	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021	Dec. 31, 2020
Income Statement [Abstract]
Net revenue	$ 1,358,207	$ 1,142,036	$ 1,016,609
Cost of goods sold	892,528	732,053	660,970
Gross profit	465,679	409,983	355,639
Operating costs and expenses:
Advertising and marketing	62,754	51,683	45,724
Selling	40,542	36,288	46,729
General and administrative	119,453	99,173	92,860
Amortization of customer relationships	23,512	23,510	26,510
Business combination transaction costs	0	0	4,282
Tax receivable agreement remeasurement	(860)	(1,409)	760
Other operating expense	0	0	3,464
Total operating costs and expenses	245,401	209,245	220,329
Operating income	220,278	200,738	135,310
Other (income) expense:
Interest expense, net	40,950	39,762	42,826
Change in fair value of warrant liabilities	0	(566)	(39,941)
Other expense (income)	(31,956)	1,730	3,723
Total other expense	8,994	40,926	6,608
Income before income taxes	211,284	159,812	128,702
Income tax expense	47,089	40,513	20,405
Net income	164,195	119,299	108,297
Less: Net income attributable to the non-controlling interest	0	0	3,621
Net income attributable to Class A stockholders	$ 164,195	$ 119,299	$ 104,676
Earnings per Class A share:
Basic (usd per share)	$ 1.20	$ 0.91	$ 0.84
Diluted (usd per share)	$ 1.19	$ 0.86	$ 0.51
Weighted-average shares outstanding:
Basic (shares)	136,768,310	131,571,733	124,927,535
Diluted (shares)	137,924,471	138,198,176	127,723,488

TWNK Balance Sheet

2022-12-31

Consolidated Balance Sheets - USD ($) $ in Thousands	Dec. 31, 2022	Dec. 31, 2021
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents	$ 98,584	$ 249,159
Short-term investments	17,914	0
Accounts receivable, net	168,783	148,180
Inventories	65,406	52,813
Prepaids and other current assets	16,375	10,564
Total current assets	367,062	460,716
Property and equipment, net	425,313	335,305
Intangible assets, net	1,920,880	1,944,392
Goodwill	706,615	706,615
Other assets, net	72,329	19,283
Total assets	3,492,199	3,466,311
Current liabilities:
Long-term debt and lease obligations payable within one year	3,917	14,170
Tax receivable agreement obligations payable within one year	12,600	11,600
Accounts payable	85,667	68,104
Customer trade allowances	62,194	52,746
Accrued expenses and other current liabilities	59,933	47,009
Total current liabilities	224,311	193,629
Long-term debt and lease obligations	999,089	1,099,975
Tax receivable agreement obligations	123,092	134,265
Deferred tax liability	347,030	317,847
Other long-term liabilities	1,593	1,605
Total liabilities	1,695,115	1,747,321
Commitments and Contingencies (Note 14)
Additional paid in capital	1,311,629	1,303,254
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)	35,078	(506)
Retained earnings	639,595	475,400
Treasury stock	(189,232)	(59,172)
Stockholders’ equity	1,797,084	1,718,990
Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity	3,492,199	3,466,311
Common Class A
Current liabilities:
Common stock	$ 14	$ 14